2020 Running Back Prospects

Running back is a weird position in the draft. The more time passes, the more convinced I am that it is a mistake to take any running back in the first round. Certainly this year there are no prospects at the elite level that would justify a first round selection.

There are always good running backs to be found on the second day of the draft. And the running back that best fits a team has more to do with the style they’re seeking than any inherent edge in talent. So while I have these players ranked below in order of how I see their abilities, I don’t think it would necessarily be a mistake for one of them to jump higher up the list, if their specific skills fit what the team that selects them is looking for.

JK Dobbins, Ohio State

 

Of all the backs I studied, Dobbins is the only one who I can really see thriving in just about any situation. He isn’t the biggest back, or the fastest back, or the shiftiest back, but he is the most versatile, and that bumps him to the top of my list. He has the vision and the range to hit cutback lanes in zone. He has the speed to get to the edge and break away for big gains. And he has the power to grind yards between the tackles, hitting the hole with speed and determination.

I don’t mean to give the impression that Dobbins is limited physically. He can do everything at an above average level. He’ll be caught from behind sometimes when he breaks into the open, but he also does pull away from linebackers and slower defensive backs. His lower body is thick and powerful, and tacklers will slide off of him if they don’t hit him head on (and even sometimes when they do). And every now and then he busts out a move in open space that can leave a defender broken in his wake.

The one part of Dobbins’s game that he really needs to work on—and the one thing that separates him from being a truly elite prospect—is in the passing attack. He’s a functional route runner out of the backfield, but he doesn’t do anything truly special, and he struggles some converting a short catch into big yardage. He makes all the right decisions in pass protection, but he can be physically overwhelmed by hard charging rushers. That seems like a fairly typical summary of Dobbins. He is one of the smartest backs I’ve scouted, making the correct read on every single play, but he lacks the sheer physical dominance that players like Ezekiel Elliott and Todd Gurley have brought, which is why it’s better off to wait to select him until the second day of the draft.

D’Andre Swift, Georgia

There is probably no player in this draft more aptly named than Swift. His greatest asset is his speed, and not just his ability to break away when he reaches the second level. His burst off every step is exceptional, and he uses this to attack the defense straight ahead. He doesn’t waste time dancing in the backfield or bouncing to the edge, though he is occasionally able to find a good cutback lane behind the line of scrimmage. Mostly he just runs straight forward, getting to the defensive second level before they even know he's coming.

If you give Swift space, he is lethal. The issues come when he doesn’t have space. He isn’t the sort of back who is going to create a lot on his own. He can make some nice sharp cuts on the second level to ruin pursuit angles, but he doesn’t have the shiftiness to make people miss in space. He usually goes down at initial contact, though he occasionally has the strength to drag forward for an extra yard or two. If things are plugged up in the middle, he’ll just grimly drive ahead, avoiding negative plays but rarely breaking any big ones.

Swift is a good piece to plug into a talented offense, but he’s not a player you can build around on his own. He offers only occasional contributions as a receiver, but he is solid in pass protection, giving the quarterback time to find other players down the field. He’ll likely have some years of big production in the NFL, when the line ahead of him clears the way and lets him hit the second level at full speed. And he’ll likely have some majorly disappointing seasons as well, when he has to fight for every yard and his limited versatility is exposed.

Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin

I feel a little bad for Taylor. In another era he very easily could have been a top ten selection. After all, they really don’t make human beings who weight 226 pounds and run a 4.39 forty yard dash. On the field he is exactly the player his numbers make him out to be. He is a downhill runner with explosive speed on the second level, and power to blast through tacklers for extra yards. In a system that keeps things tight, asks the quarterback to play from under center, and is happy putting out multiple tight ends and fullbacks, Taylor would be a perfect fit.

Anything other than that, there are going to be issues. Taylor’s change of direction is among the worst in the class, both when it comes to making people miss in space and switching to a different hole in the backfield. His feet stop every time he tries to make a cut, and even if he spots a hole on the backside of a play, he doesn’t always have the quickness to reach it. He cannot play in any sort of zone rushing attack, which greatly limits his use for a large number of teams in the league.

So what do you do with a prospect like this? Maybe it’s my own bias against this sort of offensive system, but I don’t think I would take him until the third round. He does offer some good things in the passing game, running sharp routes out of the backfield (though he’s bad in pass protection, and I have concerns about his catching ability). He’s not completely useless in a more modern NFL offense, but having him as a primary rusher greatly limits what you can do. A team may jump on him thinking he’s a perfect fit for their scheme now, but are they willing to commit to that scheme four or five years down the road?

Cam Akers, Florida State

Akers is tough to break down because, of all the backs I looked at, he was the only one who I would say had an actively bad offensive line. In college he faced a nearly unrelenting stream of unblocked defenders in his face, and it’s hard for any back to be productive in these circumstances. From these plays the most I can really say is that Akers does a good job of taking what is available and avoiding negative plays, but also that he isn’t the sort of back to create big gains from nothing.

Looking at the rare plays where he actually had space to work with, there’s some stuff to like. He has tremendous burst up the field, and when he gets going in space he moves faster than anyone else around him. Get him to the second level, and he can break free all the way to the endzone. He demonstrates good patience to let his blocks develop, though he doesn’t always make the correct reads in the end. And even when he does spot a lane opening up, he doesn’t always have the range to cut across the grain and reach it.

Akers will be a useful back as part of a rotation, and that’s worth a third round selection. But he has a lot to clean up if he’s ever going to receive a majority of the playing time. He’s all over the place in pass protection, alternating nice sticks with some ugly misses (partially this can be blamed on his offensive line as well, since he never had any idea where to expect a pass rusher would break through). As a receiver he is capable of taking a dumpoff for a big play when he gets out in space. But he isn’t the sort of talent who is going to present consistent matchup problems for a defense, in either phase of the game.

Zack Moss, Utah

Of all the running backs I looked at, Moss is the one I would least want to tackle. Others would have no problem breaking my ankles in space, but Moss would cause genuine pain, and he would enjoy it too. He’s not the sort who will make people miss without touching him, or even juke enough to avoid a direct shot. He takes a lot of contact, and he dishes out a lot too, bouncing off defenders through the middle of the defense for every yard he could conceivably fight for.

There are clear limitations for Moss that would make me reluctant to take him before the fourth round. He is faster on the field than his 4.65 forty time would suggest, but his speed still isn’t much to look at. He is strictly a between the tackles runner, and while he can occasionally create some big plays when things break down, mostly he’s just going to slam into a lane and push linebackers forward for middling gains.

Moss is another runner who I would enjoy having on my team only if I had another quality back to mix things up with. He does plenty of little stuff well. He’s strong in pass protection, and he’s only going to get better as the mental part of this catches up with his physical ability. And while he doesn’t do much as a route runner, he is a smooth and comfortable catcher of the football, easily transitioning from receiver to ball carrier. And if you can get him in space against defensive backs, he’s simply fun to watch, as he batters his way through smaller bodies until their combined weight can drag him down.

Eno Benjamin, Arizona State

Benjamin is pretty much the anti-Moss. The fact that I have them listed in this order is more that I wrote up Moss first than any statement about the relative quality of the two of them. This is the classic case where it’s all about stylistic preference. Do you want the between the tackles grinder like Moss, or the prototypical third-down scat-back like Benjamin?

Benjamin is small and quick and at his best working with a lot of space around him. He makes some stunning jump cuts that leave defenders floundering behind him, and once he gets moving he has the burst to accelerate past the defense. And he does have some fight in him once he takes contact, but more often than not a single arm is enough to bring him down.

The value here all depends on how you use Benjamin. If you try to make him the heart of your offense, slamming him between the tackles 20+ times a game, you’re going to have a bad time. If you rotate him in as a change of pace in passing situations, he can be a headache for a defensive coordinator to try to contain. He still has some work to do as a receiver and a pass protector, but he shows flashes in both areas that suggest he can become truly elite. He’s the sort who will pick up a couple of key third down conversions in every game, and that has value even if I doubt he will ever be more than that.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LSU

Edwards-Helaire is one of the most unique backs I’ve studied, and I’m not sure I mean that as a compliment. Running backs is a position where you really just want someone you can plug into your existing structure, especially when you’re drafting that player in the middle rounds. You don’t want someone you have to scheme around, and I’m worried that Edwards-Helaire might be that kind of player.

Edwards-Helaire isn’t big, but he’s weirdly thick at 5-7 and 207 pounds. He isn’t fast, and he isn’t agile, but he tested extremely well in both the vertical and the broad jumps. From that you would expect him to have good burst, but this never shows up on the field. He can reach decent top speeds, but it always takes him a while to work up to it, and if he tries to change direction at any point he basically has to start all over again. He has a very low center of gravity, and he bounces and spins off tackles like he's inside a pinball machine. But if he sees someone coming at him square he has a tendency to stop his feet, which makes him very ineffective in short yardage.

The weirdest thing about Edwards-Helaire is what he can bring in the passing game. He’s a mess in pass protection, but if you send him out as a receiver, he runs some incredible routes. He’s very deceptive as a route runner, and he knows how to work to open space. And the angles generated when he gets the ball already on the second level make it extremely hard to get a direct hit on him, leading him to pick up a lot of extra yards that otherwise don’t look like they’re there.

So what do you do with a player like this? I really have no idea. There’s a decent chance he goes above a couple of the players listed higher to a team that is intrigued by what they think they can draw up for him, and that might not even be a mistake. But me personally, I’d rather take one of the options with a clear established role than gamble on a player who could be a gadget nightmare in a very narrow set of circumstances, and completely ineffective in many others.