2020 NFL Draft In Depth

The Vikings Remain Confused

Last night was one of the least eventful drafts in recent history, so indulge me while I be a homer and make it all about the Vikings to start with.

Entering this offseason, it was very clear that Minnesota was at a fork in the road. The defensive bulwark that they had built their team around was entering the downward stretch of their careers, and the window they had aimed for seemed to have been missed. The options they faced seemed straightforward: load up for one more desperate run at a championship, or break the team down and start again.

There were some changes that were made this offseason that were inevitable. Xavier Rhodes was never going to be worth what they were paying him. Trae Waynes is a good player, but he got more than he deserved from Cincinnati. And while Mackenzie Alexander’s contract seemed like something they could have matched, it sounds like he had soured on the Vikings organization due to his use in the slot and an injury he suffered in a meaningless Week 17 game where all the other defensive starters were rested.

There was no way the Vikings could keep the whole team together, but they had the option to try their best to maintain continuity going into next season. Their initial moves seemed to suggest they were doing just that. They signed Kirk Cousins to an extension so he wouldn’t be playing on the last year of his deal, and they also re-upped GM Rick Spielman and head coach Mike Zimmer. There was talk that they were trying to work on a deal with Dalvin Cook as he enters the final year of his rookie contract. It very much felt like they were planning on being the exact same team in 2020 that they were in 2019.

And then there were the other moves. They released Everson Griffen and Linval Joseph, expensive veterans on the defensive line who still had some juice in them. They cut Josh Kline, a quality starting guard who wasn’t earning that much. And then, of course, they traded away Stefon Diggs, their best receiver in the prime of his career for a first round pick.

The Vikings reached a fork in the road, and it seemed that they tried to go both ways at once. They stretched out the core of what their current roster setup is, and then they made moves that inarguably worsened their team. And so on draft night they entered with two first round picks and no clear identity on their path forward.

The way they used those picks echoes that confusion. A team that is going for one last run should throw caution to the wind, should make sacrifices for the future for the benefit of now. They should take a risk and leap up in the draft to grab a player they feel is a sure immediate impact contributor, a player that can contribute right away to a championship team. The Vikings reportedly did try to trade up at several points, but they weren’t willing to part with what was being asked. In fact they actually traded down, adding later picks that could hopefully turn into contributors a couple years down the line.

If they weren’t willing to mortgage their future for next year, then the clear choice was to go the other way. Continue the teardown, try to build from scratch, and take some risks that could pan out three or four years down the road. The beginning of a rebuild is the perfect time to gamble on high upside players. If they need development, you aren’t wasting time that would otherwise be used competitively. And if they don’t pan out, you have time to adjust your strategy before you actually need those roles filled.

The Vikings actually did a good job of this in 2013. They had three first round picks that year, and the first—Sharrif Floyd—was a highly touted prospect who fell right into their lap, so that doesn’t really apply here. The other two were the sort of players I’m talking about: Xavier Rhodes and Cordarrelle Patterson. Obviously they went one-for-two, getting a star cornerback in Rhodes and a bust in Patterson. But the failure of Patterson occurred early enough that they were able to take a few more swings at wide receiver, and one of those swings paid off with a fifth round pick in Diggs.

So now we get to the two players the Vikings did select: Justin Jefferson and Jeff Gladney. I think both are good players, and I think both will be starters for the team for a while. But both also feel a bit low-upside. They’re the sort of players who would make you feel very good if they were your number two options at a position, and uncomfortable if they were forced to be your number ones.

For Jefferson the issue is his lack of explosiveness on the field, for Gladney it’s his size that gives him difficulties against bigger, stronger receivers. They make up for these issues by being advanced in skill and technique. They are the sort of players who can slide into a starting lineup right away, filling out a roster already built to compete.

But the Vikings aren’t built to compete. They’re built to fall apart and then be rebuilt from something new. And while Jefferson and Gladney may be some of the best players at the position in 2020, I don’t think that will be the case in 2023. I think a few years down the line the Vikings will look back on this draft and regret passing up on players like Denzel Mims and Jaylon Johnson. Because Jefferson and Gladney won’t put them over the top in the near term, and they aren’t a foundation to build on for the long term either.

Love in the Time of Coronavirus

Let’s move on to the single most interesting selection of the night. After the top three quarterbacks went off the board, every eye zeroed in on Jordan Love, the talented but inconsistent quarterback out of Utah State. He was expected to go somewhere in the 20s, and a bunch of different teams were rumored to be interested in him. Both Miami and the Chargers were considered possibilities before they used their earlier picks on quarterbacks. The Colts and Patriots have long term holes under center, and even the Saints were thought to be a possibility despite their constant attempts to throw the future to the wind and chase after the dwindling years of Drew Brees’s career.

No one saw Green Bay selecting him, particularly not leaping up four slots to do so. They have Aaron Rodgers, of course. And Rodgers has been both quietly and openly badgering the team for years to spend more on support for him. They haven’t spent a first round pick on an offensive player since 2011, and they haven’t taken a wide receiver in the first round since 2002. It seemed like selecting someone to be his eventual replacement would be a move designed to piss off their most important player.

Of course as soon as Love was selected people began pointing out that Rodgers is the same age that Brett Favre was in 2005 when Green Bay used their first round selection on Rodgers himself. They seamlessly transitioned from one Hall of Fame quarterback to another before, and now they have a chance to do it again. The upside for Love is absolutely that high, and sitting behind Rodgers could be the perfect situation for him.

I’m generally not a fan of sitting highly drafted rookie quarterbacks on the bench, but this is the rare circumstance where it could work out. Rodgers is good enough that there won’t be immediate calls for him to be replaced, and Love is raw enough that he could be genuinely harmed by being pushed out there too early. His biggest concern coming out was his high interception total his final year in college, and no one in NFL history is better at avoiding interceptions than Rodgers. Love has a lot of the very same skills that made Rodgers elite in his prime—athleticism, creativity, arm strength, touch, aggression—and if they can use the next few years to turn Love into a Rodgers mirror, they can continue their unprecedented streak of quarterback excellence.

The timeline is the concern though. Because there really is no path to getting Love on the field anytime soon, barring an injury to Rodgers. It was less than two years ago that Rodgers signed a four-year extension with the Packers, and that contract is set to pay him around $30 million a year through 2023. In theory they could cut him after the 2021 season, but that would still cost them $17 million against their cap in 2022. The most likely outcome I see is that he stays for another three seasons before ceding the reins to Love in 2023.

That’s where things get messy. The current structure of contracts for first round rookies is four years plus a fifth-year option, with the decision on the option being made prior to the fourth year. That means that the Packers will likely have to decide whether to pick up the option on Love before he’s seen anything more than spot duty. The option is guaranteed for injury only, so if he’s completely inept in his first year of a starter they can probably get rid of him. But in all likelihood we’re talking about someone who will enter his second year as a starter with a one year contract that pays him $30-40 million.

Compare this to when Rodgers was selected, and he signed a contract that locked him up for five years at a max value of around $24 million. This meant that when he first came in as a starter he still had two years under contract for relatively little money, and this gave Green Bay the leverage to get him to sign a very friendly six-year $65 million extension. They used this friendliness to keep the core of their veteran roster intact, allowing them to go on their Super Bowl run in 2010.

Quarterback salaries have exploded over the past decade, and one of the advantages of the rookie wage scale is that it allows a team to build around a super cheap quarterback for his early years. The Packers are basically punting those years in the hope that they can develop a raw quarterback.

And to make one things perfectly clear: Love is not what Rodgers was in 2005. Rodgers was seen as the likely first overall pick for most of the draft process, and after the 49ers elected to go with Alex Smith instead, he slid past a lot of teams that really didn’t need a quarterback. He fell into Green Bay’s lap, and they made a decision to take advantage of a good value. That isn’t the case here. Love went about where he was expected to, and Green Bay paid multiple picks to move up to select him. He’s a lot farther from being ready than Rodgers was when he entered the league, and there is a lot more risk that he pans out to absolutely nothing and the Packers just threw away a pick at the tail end of their Hall of Fame quarterback’s career.

Additional Prospects

I try to study every first round prospect prior to the draft, but there are always some who slip in there unexpected. This year there were four such players, three of whom I actually did watch some tape of prior to the draft, even if I didn’t fully write them up. So I went back today and refreshed myself on their games to give you the full breakdowns you rightfully deserve.

18) Miami Dolphins – Austin Jackson, OT, USC

I get why Miami felt like they needed to shore up their offensive line to help out rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. I’m just not sure why they decided to make this tackle their selection. On paper I supposed Jackson looks like an elite talent. He’s long, he’s thick, and he’s athletic. He moves very well laterally on the field, able to get in position to make surprising reach blocks and to get excellent depth on his drops when facing a wide defensive end. I’m sure he excelled in all the drills they put him through at the Combine in addition to the athletic testing.

Jackson would be a great offensive line prospect, except that he is bad at blocking. Every now and then he’ll show up with a good play in the running game, where he’s able to seal off a defender and sustain his block by latching on with strong hands. But just as often he gets outleveraged by an inside defender who is able to plow through his shoulder to make a play in the backfield. He can move well getting to the second level, but it’s pretty easy for defenders to go around him to get to the ball carrier.

He’s shaky in the running game, and he’s downright bad as a pass blocker. The best case scenario for him is when he just stands perfectly still and catches the pass rusher in his chest. This limits his range and leaves him vulnerable to a bull rush, but he’s at least decent at anchoring when someone strikes him square. And it’s a far better outcome than when he tries to punch. He rarely strikes his target, and when he does it doesn’t seem to do much of anything, except knock him off balance and leave an easy path to the quarterback.

I know I discussed above how early in a rebuild is a perfect time to take a chance on a highly upside player, and the Dolphins are right there. But Jackson is so far away that I struggle to see him ever putting it together. And with the lack of talent on the Dolphins roster, they’ll have pretty much no choice but to put him out there in front of Tagovailoa, which is just asking for a disaster.

27) Seattle Seahawks – Jordyn Brooks, LB, Texas Tech

Brooks was the only one of these players who I hadn’t watched at all prior to the draft. In fact I had barely heard his name. But that seems to be a trend with Seattle, and going forward I might just not bother breaking down whoever they end up drafting. But for now, here are my thoughts on Brooks after watching two games of his today.

Most people had Brooks pegged in the third round, and there’s a good reason for this. The most important thing a linebacker can do in the modern NFL is cover, and across the games I watched I’m not sure I saw five plays where Brooks even attempted to cover. He played mostly as a spy, or as a delayed blitzer who floats around the line and then fires downhill when he sees a lane. It’s a weird role, and one that will probably not translate to the NFL.

I’ll say this about Brooks, he is certainly explosive. When he plants his foot in the ground and shoots downhill, he moves faster than anyone else on the field to the point he’s headed to. Strangely though he doesn’t seem to cover as much space working laterally, and he can be outflanked towards the sideline. And even when he does fire downhill, it rarely seems to work out. He’s easily deflected by any sort of contact, and he takes very poor angles towards the ball. This means that multiple times each game he comes soaring past well out of reach as the ball carrier runs past him.

I guess there’s some potential here, but the sort of potential I would feel more suited to the third round. And even if Seattle had grabbed him there I would have been a little confused. They have arguably the best duo of linebackers in the league in Bobby Wagner and KJ Wright, and while both are getting up there they are still the best players on a defense that is otherwise scattered with holes. What good does grabbing a two-down run-stopping linebacker do you when you can’t cover or rush the passer? I don’t know what Seattle is doing, but I guess that’s hardly a new feeling.

29) Tennessee Titans – Isaiah Wilson, OT, Georgia

Wilson isn’t Jackson, and he’s a good fit for Tennessee’s style of grinding the ball on the ground with Derrick Henry. That’s most of the nice things I can say about this pick. There were definitely better tackles available, and while Wilson impresses in the size and explosiveness numbers, on the field he looks awkward and slow-moving. He’s close in size to Jets selection Mekhi Becton but nowhere near as athletic, and while I think he can probably be molded into a solid right tackle I think he’s ultimately a project with a low ceiling.

Get behind Wilson in the running game, and things can go very well for you. He isn’t consistent, but when he’s on he swallows opposing defensive linemen and buries them into the ground. He’s thick and he’s massive, and while he doesn’t use his hands much he seems to envelop defenders with his bulk alone. This same width comes in handy in pass protection when he is able to get into position and take the rusher into his chest.

And yet, strangely, there are a few times each game where he gets absolutely demolished by the defender in front of him. It doesn’t really make sense to see a 350 pound man be pushed backwards like he has wheels on his shoes, but it happens often enough that it can’t be dismissed as moments of bad footing. And once he gets moving, he has no ability to change directions. His initial drop is good, but he can’t reverse downhill to close off inside rushing lanes. He gets his shoulders turned too easily, opening up easy lanes to the quarterback. The Titans are going to have to give him a lot of help if they want him to replace Jack Conklin, because right now he can’t be counted on to hold up in pass protection.

30) Miami Dolphins – Noah Igbinoghene, CB, Auburn

I wasn’t thrilled with this pick at first, but it’s slowly begun to grow on me. It certainly seemed strange for Miami to go for a cornerback after handing out the two largest cornerback contracts in NFL history over the past year. Byron Jones and Xavien Howard are both locked up for eight figures a season for the next five years, and though Howard’s contract is flexible enough they could let him go after 2021 without much cost, that still leaves them with seemingly little need for another cornerback.

But of course, you don’t just need two cornerbacks these days. The base defense for most NFL teams is a nickel lineup, and while most teams are willing to grab a cheaper option to play the slot, Miami seems to be going all in on building a coverage-first defense, much as New England has done over the past few years. Jones is versatile enough to play a kind of cornerback/safety hybrid as he did at times in Dallas, but for the money they’re paying him I expect they’ll use him primarily on the outside matched up with one of the opponent’s top receivers. Which means Igbinoghene will likely be the one playing in the slot.

As I watched tape on Igbinoghene, I started to think that the slot is actually a pretty great place for him. He played there some in college, though it will likely be a little rough for him to transition full time to that position in the NFL. But it suits many of his strengths while covering a lot of his weaknesses.

The biggest flaw I saw when watching Igbinoghene was on vertical routes. He does a good job on the release of the ball squeezing receivers to the sideline, but once he gets his hips turned and starts running he runs into some issues. He ran a 4.48 forty but looks slower on the field, and he can be beaten both over the top and on long developing crossing routes. He panics some when the ball is in the air as well and will get grabby once the receiver is past him.

Moving him to the slot will leave fewer vertical routes to challenge him, and it will make it easier to keep safety help behind him. This will make life easier as he comes up to play tight to the line, where he is more comfortable. He has good lateral quickness, and he is excellent playing slant routes, with long arms and an explosive burst that allows him to undercut the route and make a play on the ball. He’s always in balance, and his recovery ability is strong. I’m a little concerned that playing him in the slot will make it harder for him to use his physicality to stack up receivers, one of the strengths of his game, but there are still ways to utilize that even if the opposing receiver isn’t right across from him on the line. I think he’ll make an excellent slot cornerback after a year or two of growth, giving Miami the foundations of a true shutdown secondary.

Best Players Remaining

Round two kicks off later tonight. There are a bunch of really talented players left on the board, and the teams picking early in the night will likely get several very good starters out of this pack.

Denzel Mims, WR, Baylor

I mentioned Mims above, but I’m going to double up on him here. He’s the best player left available heading into the second night of the draft, and I’m guessing that several of the teams that selected receivers ahead of him are going to regret this in the long run. Simply put, he has everything you want from a receiver, just lacking consistency. He has size and leaping ability to pluck jump balls out of the air. He has speed to break defenses over the top. He didn’t run a wide array of routes in college, but he impressed in drills at the Senior Bowl. He’s raw, but he has the highest ceiling of any receiver in this class, and I think there’s a good chance he reaches that ceiling in a couple of years.

Josh Jones, OT, Houston

I don’t really understand this one. Jones was viewed a notch below the top four tackles because of the lower level of competition he played at, and no one was shocked when those four went ahead of him. It’s a bit perplexing why teams would take Jackson and Wilson ahead of him. Sure they have tremendous athletic upside, but Jones is a very good athlete himself, and he actually knows how to block people as well.

Yetur Gross-Matos, EDGE, Penn State

Only two pure pass rushers went off the board in round one. In fact, only four defensive linemen total were selected. This wasn’t a particularly great year for those positions at the top end, but there are starters to be found on day two. And topping those is Gross-Matos. He doesn’t have the pure burst up the field to be an elite pass rusher, but his strength and quickness on the inside give him some potential to work with there, as well as making him a terror in the running game.

Zack Baun, EDGE, Wisconsin and Josh Uche, EDGE, Michigan

I’ll lump these two together because they’re very similar players and are still available for similar reasons. The two pass rushers who went in the first round are both built to come screaming off the edge, play in and play out with very versatile pass rush arrays. Baun and Uche are a bit different. They aren’t as explosive off the ball, and their smaller size means they may not be able to hold up on the edge on every play. But they make up for this with the versatility to back off the ball and play a more traditional linebacker role. Of the two Baun is the more polished player right now, while Uche has the higher upside thanks to breathtaking closing speed. Used properly, they can develop into unique and lethal defenders.

Antoine Winfield Jr, S, Minnesota

Winfield is small, and he has a rough history with injuries, so it isn’t a surprise to see him slide out of the first round. But he plays much bigger than his size, both in his ability to come up and lay hits in the running game and his ability to go up and get the ball when it’s in the air. He’s the best safety in the class (depending on what position you classify Isaiah Simmons as), and I don’t think it will take long for someone in the second round to take a chance on him.

Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson

It’s no surprise that Higgins fell. The NFL loves speed at receiver, and there were concerns about Higgins there that were unfortunately not allayed, due to the cancellation of his Pro Day and the lack of a forty time. He’s not as dominant at the catch point as someone like DeAndre Hopkins, but he’s good enough to make a few plays when he is otherwise covered. And what makes him truly valuable in my eyes is his big frame and toughness going over the middle of the field, an area that NFL offenses do not exploit nearly enough.

Jaylon Johnson, CB, Utah

I didn’t prepare a full scouting report for Johnson, but I watched a couple games of his in expectation that he might go in the first round, and I liked what I saw. He is merely okay as an athlete, but he makes up for it in size and aggression. He’s a pure boundary cornerback with the strength to disrupt receivers in press coverage and the ball skills to contest deep throws down the sideline. I think he’ll be a very good starter right away, and he has the potential to round out into a reliable number one cornerback.

JK Dobbins, RB, Ohio State

The final pick of the first round was also the first running back selected, and I expect we’ll see the run continue tonight. For most teams my recommendation when choosing a running back is to just go for whoever fits your scheme the best, but Dobbins may be the exception to that. He’ll work in just about any scheme, and while I don’t think he has the upside to be a true gamebreaker on offense, he’s the sort of runner who can round out a well developed offense into something truly dangerous.

Awards

And now, time to hand out some hardware.

BIGGEST REACH – Los Angeles Chargers – Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon

I gave enough criticism to the Jackson and Brooks selections above, and even if I hadn't this one is still an easy winner. I don’t really see any scenario in which Herbert lives up to a top ten selection. I see a number of scenarios in which he busts entirely, a few where he becomes a below average starter, and a very small chance he becomes the definition of quarterback mediocrity. The Chargers missed out on the top two quarterbacks, and they should have just accepted that and chosen to roll with Tyrod Taylor for a year.

BIGGEST STEAL – Dallas Cowboys – CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma

I don’t think anyone expected Lamb to be there for the Cowboys. They’ve stated that they clearly didn’t. But pairing him with Amari Cooper in the passing game—not to mention Ezekiel Elliott on the ground—and the Cowboys have the makings of the best offense in the NFL.

BEST FIT – San Francisco 49ers – Brandon Aiyuk, WR, Arizona State

I discussed this briefly last night, but I’ll repeat it here. Aiyuk is a lightning fast receiver who is dangerous with the ball in his hands, and the only concern with him is that he has a habit of getting outmuscled by physical defenders. So what do you do with a receiver like this? You scheme up ways to give him space to work in. And who is the best in the league at designing plays to warp defenses and create space? Kyle Shanahan.

WORST FIT – Henry Ruggs, WR, Las Vegas Raiders

This is based on the pairing of Ruggs—an elite deep threat—with Derek Carr—a quarterback who is reluctant to throw the ball more than ten yards down the field. Of course, if Carr is not in the plans for the Raiders after this season, this becomes a different story.

OFFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR – Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals

It will be interesting given the abbreviated offseason how teams handle their rookie quarterbacks. But in 2011 the Bengals had no problem starting Andy Dalton coming off of a lockout, and while the head coach has changed since then, Mike Brown is still the guy in charge of everything. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Burrow under center right away, and even if he isn’t, he’ll be there by week three or four. And he isn’t going to a bad situation. With a healthy AJ Green and Tyler Boyd they have a decent pair of receivers. The offensive line is more of a question, but if they can get last year’s first round pick Jonah Williams healthy and contributing they can make a big leap there too.

DEFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR – Chase Young, EDGE, Washington Redskins

I know, I know, I’m just making the obvious choices. But Young’s talent is so much above any other defender in this class that it’s hard not to go with him. No one else in the first round is going to challenge him for the rookie lead in sacks. A couple of the cornerbacks could put up big interception numbers, but Young is as close to a sure thing as it gets, and like his former teammate Nick Bosa a year ago he is being dropped into a defense already loaded with talent along the front that will make it difficult for offenses to key on him.

PLAYER I AM MOST LIKELY TO BE WRONG ABOUT – Patrick Queen, LB, Baltimore Ravens

There are two main candidates for this. The first is Jerry Jeudy. I didn’t like Jeudy as a prospect, not seeing the polish that so many other people raved about, but it’s very possible that it’s there and I just don’t have the understanding of route running subtleties to grasp it. With Courtland Sutton on the opposite side and with Drew Lock showing flashes of promise a year ago, it’s possible that this Broncos offense could break out in the next year or two.

I ended up going with Queen mostly because I trust Baltimore’s player development a lot more than Denver’s. I was very low on Queen, seeing him as a third round prospect, but I can’t deny that Baltimore is an excellent destination for him. He has the athleticism to make plays all over the field, and the defensive line that Baltimore built this offseason should help shield him from blockers coming downfield. I’m split with popular opinion on whether or not he’s good in pass defense, and even if I’m right there early on I will freely admit that he has the skills to become an elite pass defender, and Baltimore is probably the best place for him to develop these skills.

2020 NFL Draft First Round Review

We entered last night’s draft expecting chaos, and we got…not really any of that. The whole process went smoothly, and for most of the night things went by the book. There were no huge trades (only one mostly trivial trade in the first 22 picks), and it seemed like we were in for a boring night.

And then we were hit by a couple of surprises at the very end, because the NFL Draft can never be totally normal.

Below I give brief thoughts on each of the 32 picks. You can find more detailed writeups of each player by clicking the links below, with the exception of four who I will study and write up tomorrow.

Wide Receivers

Cornerbacks

Safeties and Linebackers

Running Backs

Offensive Linemen

Defensive Tackles

Edge Rushers

Quarterbacks

 

1) Cincinnati Bengals – Joe Burrow, QB, LSU

No surprise here. Burrow is coming off of the best season in college football history, and he is the best quarterback I’ve scouted in six years doing this. He’s as close to a sure thing as has come around in a while, and the only concerns I have are that he is a bit of a one year wonder, and that he will have a rough transition entering an offense without two superstar wide receivers, an elite tight end, an excellent offensive line, and a masterful play caller. But he’ll figure it out eventually, and the Bengals will have their franchise quarterback.

2) Washington Redskins – Chase Young, EDGE, Ohio State

There was occasional speculation, but not really any doubts. Chase Young is a rare prospect who will instantly elevate Washington’s pass rush as an addition to an already talented defensive front. This wasn’t the biggest need for the Redskins, but need doesn’t really matter with a player like Young. He’ll likely produce double digit sacks his rookie year, and within a couple seasons he’ll be challenging for the league lead.

3) Detroit Lions – Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State

There were a lot of other possibilities thrown out there, but in the end the Lions made the correct choice. Okudah is a special cornerback, with good athleticism and truly special coverage skills. He runs stride for stride with any receiver running any route, and he will be in perfect position to make a play on the football. Within a year or two he will be a shutdown cornerback to replace the traded away Darius Slay.

4) New York Giants – Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia

To my shock, the Giants do the right thing and grab the top offensive lineman available. There are better athletes available with higher ceilings, but Thomas is a good athlete himself, and he has the ability to become a top five tackle in the league. The most important thing about Thomas is that he is as close as an offensive lineman can come to a sure thing. He can start from day one, and he will stay starting for the next decade.

5) Miami Dolphins – Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama

So many smokescreens were thrown around what the Dolphins wanted to do, but in the end the Dolphins did the right thing to round out a top five that is identical to how the draft would have gone if I was making every pick. Sure there are injury concerns here, but even as slight injury risk at quarterback is worth it if he can play at a truly elite level. And Tagovailoa can play at an elite level, and if he was fully healthy there would have been at least a conversation between him and Burrow for the top quarterback.

6) Los Angeles Chargers – Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon

Finally, a bad pick for me to rip into! Herbert is big, he has a strong arm, and he’s generally a good decision maker. The problems come when he throws the ball. He has no accuracy outside the hashes, he doesn’t throw anything other than lasers, and he is completely helpless when the play breaks down. He’s a statue in the pocket who can’t create on his own, and the absolute best case scenario for him is that he becomes Kirk Cousins, capable of producing when everything around him is going smoothly but a disaster when things start to go wrong.

7) Carolina Panthers – Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn

Brown is big and strong and will excel at stuffing up the middle of the field. But of course when you’re spending a top ten pick on a defensive tackle, that really doesn’t matter. What matters is whether he can rush the passer, and the answer here is sometimes. Every now and then he’ll have a play where he just walks the opposing lineman back into the pocket. But it feels very one dimensional, and as games wear on offensive linemen seem to adjust to his power and erase any hope he has of pressuring the quarterback. I worry that NFL linemen will be smart and skilled enough to make that adjustment from the first snap, and he could end up being nothing more than a two down run stopper.

8) Arizona Cardinals – Isaiah Simmons, LB/S, Clemson

Simmons is a freakish athlete, and when you see him break downhill on a ball carrier in space it is absolutely breathtaking. He played pretty much everywhere in college, and there’s a chance the Cardinals may try to do something similar with him at the next level. The concern I have is that he never seemed particularly instinctive or aggressive, and this made him something of a jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none. I feel like he’ll have plays that pop off the screen, but I’m not sure he’ll ever be a consistent, game changing defender like Derwin James or Tyrann Mathieu.

9) Jacksonville Jaguars – CJ Henderson, CB, Florida

Henderson is a special athlete with very good coverage skills. There are two issues with him. First, he has no interest in tackling. That’s not great, but it’s something you can live with in a cornerback. The bigger concern is that even when he’s in good position, he doesn’t make great plays on the ball. Wide receivers can go over him or through him, and I’m not sure this is ever going to improve. It will likely prevent him from ever reaching the elite tier of cornerbacks, but against weaker receivers or quarterbacks unwilling to take risks he can erase part of the field.

10) Cleveland Browns – Jedrick Wills, OG/OT, Alabama

To some surprise the Browns still had their choice of three of the top four linemen, and they went with the versatile Wills. Wills is an extremely good run blocker and decent in pass protection as well. I have some worries about his ability to attack pass rushers, and how he handles things when they break down in front of him. He can definitely correct these things to become an elite tackle, but I think the more likely course is that he maxes out as a reliable starter. However, even if he doesn’t live up to expectations on the outside he can be an absolutely dominant guard, all depending on which is more valuable to the team.

11) New York Jets – Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville

Becton is huge and he is a lot of fun. He throws defenders around like they’re random people he found on the street rather than other elite football players. He’s so big you can’t really run around him, and you certainly can’t go through him. There are things to clean up about his technique no doubt, mostly to close off inside moves. But get behind him in the running game and he will clear a path down the field. And if he puts it all together, there is no limit to what he can do.

12) Las Vegas Raiders – Henry Ruggs, WR, Alabama

As I expected, the speedy wide receiver leaps over the two more commonly top ranked receivers. The NFL always falls in love with speed, and Ruggs has rare, rare speed. He’s so fast on the field that it was a disappointment when he only ran a 4.27 at the Combine. Send him down the field, and he wins over the top. Hit him on an underneath route, and he can outrun the entire defense to the endzone. I don’t think he has the strength and ball skills of someone like Tyreek Hill, but he can bring a similar dynamic to that offense. If only he was paired with Patrick Mahomes, rather than Derek Carr.

13) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa

The Buccaneers hung in there, and they only ended up having to jump up one spot to get one of the top tackles. Unfortunately Wirfs is probably the worst fits of all the tackles to plug into an offense built around a 43 year old quarterback. He’s better as a run blocker than a pass blocker, and he’s going to have some hiccups as he translates to the NFL. In the long term he has the athleticism to be an elite tackle, but the Buccaneers aren’t necessarily playing the long term right now.

14) San Francisco 49ers – Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina

I have conflicted feelings about this pick. On the one hand, the 49ers have this selection because they traded a proven superstar on the defensive interior, and then grabbed a player on the part of their team that is most locked up. On the other hand, Kinlaw is a top five player with the potential to be a real replacement for DeForest Buckner. They got a great player at a great value, and I guess you can never react too harshly to that.

15) Denver Broncos – Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama

Jeudy has very unique talent in terms of the way he changes direction. He makes cuts in space that don’t seem to make sense. And every now and then he makes those cuts while running a route or while carrying the football, and when he does you can’t help but salivate at what he could be. But a lot of times it feels like he dances just to dance and doesn't really have any plan with what he's doing. If he can put it all together he can be an excellent receiver, though I do have concerns about his ability to make difficult catches.

16) Atlanta Falcons – AJ Terrell, CB, Clemson

I’ve been a big fan of Terrell for a while, and his name has steadily crept up draft boards over the past few weeks, to the point that it’s no surprise to see him as the third cornerback off the board. He’s an above average athlete with good length, and while he struggles some on jump balls, he’s otherwise good at playing the ball in the air. Atlanta has desperately needed help at cornerback for years, and the need is even more desperate now that Desmond Trufant has moved on.

17) Dallas Cowboys – CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma

Two other receivers went earlier, but the best fell into Dallas’s lap. Lamb can do pretty much everything at wide receiver. He can stretch the field over the top. He can go up to get jump balls. He’s at his best after the catch. He might not be a true freak in the way a lot of the top receivers in the league are, but he’s so well rounded that I can’t see him not succeeding. He’s very similar in fact to Amari Cooper, and together they give Dallas an elite duo of receivers.

18) Miami Dolphins – Austin Jackson, OT, USC

I haven’t done a full scouting report for Jackson yet. I’ll try to get around to it tomorrow. But based on the one game I have watched from him so far, it is not going to be complimentary.

19) Las Vegas Raiders – Damon Arnette, CB, Ohio State

Wide receiver and cornerback was the most common pairing for the Raiders in mock drafts, and they didn’t disappoint. Arnette was a surprise for some people going off the board this high. He isn’t a great athlete, and he’s smaller than most of the other top cornerbacks. But he is incredibly aggressive and makes some great plays on the football. This may be a slight reach, but I don’t hate the value here.

20) Jacksonville Jaguars – K’Lavon Chaisson, EDGE, LSU

There's pretty much no chance that Yannick Ngakoue is going to be back in Jacksonville, so now they bring in a second pass rusher to go opposite Josh Allen. Chaisson is an interesting athlete, dangerous in space but extremely raw as a pass rusher. He’s not the sort who is going to come screaming off the edge, at least not right away. He’ll be most useful if the defense can figure out how to get him charging with good momentum on the inside or playing in space on the edge.

21) Philadelphia Eagles – Jalen Reagor, WR, TCU

I expected Justin Jefferson to be the next receiver off the board, but it isn’t a shock to see Reagor here either. He’s an explosive athlete, and he shows moments of excellent route running. He can do a lot of things, and it’s just an issue of finding the consistency to become an elite wide receiver. It may take him a couple years to get there, and until then he’ll contribute in bursts on offense and as a dangerous returner.

22) Minnesota Vikings – Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU

With Philadelphia’s surprise move above, Jefferson slides only one more slot before Minnesota laps him up with the pick they acquired in the Stefon Diggs trade. In a lot of ways he’s a good fit to replace many of the things Diggs did. He’s a good route runner and very good on contested catches. I don’t think he has the speed down the field that Diggs did, and it will absolutely be a net loss for their offense in the short term. 

In the long term I am unclear about Jefferson’s upside. On the field he looked like a solid number two receiver, a Tyler Boyd type player at best. But at the Combine he blew the roof off with his athletic testing, suggesting there might be more there. My instinct is to trust the tape, which is why I had a few other receivers available at this point ranked above him. But I can’t write off the possibility that he develops into more than he showed in college.

23) Los Angeles Chargers – Kenneth Murray, LB, Oklahoma

The Chargers leap up to grab Murray, my top rated linebacker in the draft. I really like Murray, and I really like his fit in the Chargers defense, but I question the value of trading two day two picks for a linebacker. But that part is done, and now the Chargers have a very good young linebacker. Like many linebackers these days Murray has the speed to streak from sideline to sideline, but he also brings an impressive amount of pop to stuff runners at the line of scrimmage. He’ll be one of the best linebackers in football in a couple of years.

24) New Orleans Saints – Cesar Ruiz, OG/C, Michigan

It’s never a bad move to build depth up front, and Ruiz is the best pure interior lineman in the draft. When the Saints won their Super Bowl in 2009 they did so with a pair of top notch guards, and after spending a second round pick on Eric McCoy a year ago they seem committed to building that as a strength once again. And for as roster as well rounded and as deep as the Saints, every pick is a luxury pick.

25) San Francisco 49ers – Brandon Aiyuk, WR, Arizona State

This is a pretty much perfect landing spot for Aiyuk. He has a lot of talent as a route runner, to go along with great quickness when he gets the ball in his hands. His biggest weakness is a lack of physicality, and no one in the NFL is better at scheming receivers open than Kyle Shanahan. He’ll get Aiyuk moving before the snap, give him plenty of free releases down the field, and open up a lot of options for Jimmy Garoppolo in the passing game.

26) Green Bay Packers – Jordan Love, QB, Utah State

Well this is probably the most fascinating pick of the first round. Love is tremendously talented throwing the football. He makes plays that no other quarterback in this class can make, both striking tight windows down the field and throwing on the run. He also makes a lot of poor decisions throwing down the field, and he’s going to have to pick up a lot from the sideline before he makes it into the starting lineup.

That’s where this gets interesting. Because Green Bay obviously already has a quarterback. Aaron Rodgers has clearly been trending down for a couple years, but he’s still an above average quarterback. More significantly he’s still under contract for four years, with no real way to get out of his contract in the next two. Most likely that means three more seasons from Rodgers. If that happens, the Packers will be forced to make a decision on Love’s fifth year option without him ever having stepped foot on the field, and if they don’t pick it up have his first year as a starter come in his final year under contract.

This could work out fantastically, as it did when they selected Rodgers with Brett Favre still under center in 2005. If Love can develop on the sideline, he absolutely has the talent to continue that quarterback legacy. But there’s also a chance that Green Bay just threw away a first round pick on someone who won’t contribute for three years, and maybe not even after that.

27) Seattle Seahawks – Jordyn Brooks, LB, Texas Tech

Death, taxes, Seattle grabbing someone no one had any expectation of going in the first round. I’ve only seen passing mention of Brooks’s name at all, so I’ll have to get back to you tomorrow after I’ve had a chance to watch some film..

28) Baltimore Ravens – Patrick Queen, LB, LSU

In a couple years this could look like the steal of the draft. Or it could look like a total disaster. Queen is a phenomenal athlete, flying all over the field in all sorts of directions. He doesn’t have much physicality, but he’s fast enough to run around blockers if he can’t go through him. I was less impressed by his abilities in coverage than most people seem to be, but I will admit that he has the athletic ability to do great things there. I think it will take him some time, but I trust Baltimore’s player development to make him into a very good starter.

29) Tennessee Titans – Isaiah Wilson, OT, Georgia

I also haven’t written up Wilson yet, though I’ve watched a couple games of him. I haven’t loved what I’ve seen, but at least he isn’t Austin Jackson.

30) Miami Dolphins – Noah Igbinoghene, CB, Auburn

Interesting, Miami going all in on cornerback. I’ve watched two games on Igbinoghene, and this seems like an okay choice here, but I’ll have a more detailed scouting report tomorrow.

31) Minnesota Vikings – Jeff Gladney, CB, TCU

Gladney is a name that has been linked to Minnesota basically since this process began. He’s smart and well rounded, and he’s ready to start day one for a team with basically nothing at cornerback. He plays with a physical style that Mike Zimmer will love, though I worry he doesn’t have the physical tools to match the attitude. He’s solid in coverage but he gets pushed around by bigger receivers, and this is not something that can be trained out of. I would have preferred a bigger cornerback like Jaylon Johnson or Kristian Fulton, but at this point the difference between the cornerbacks available is fairly small.

32) Kansas City Chiefs – Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, LSU

This is interesting. I didn’t expect the Chiefs to spend their first round pick on a running back, not after they showed a couple years ago how little they value the position when they cast Kareem Hunt aside without a second thought. But Edwards-Helaire is a good fit schematically with his ability to run routes out of the backfield. I don’t think he has much talent as a pure runner, but Kansas City could be a perfect place for him, somewhere he can handle 5-10 carries and 5-10 receptions a game rather than just being pounded on the grounds 10-20 times.