2017 NFC North Preview

We’re a week away from the first game of the regular season, so let’s wrap up my divisional previews. I’ve gone through each of the other seven divisions, and as always I’m going to finish up with the NFC North. As with the others, I’ll give a best case and a worst case scenario for each team, then a slightly lesser known player to keep your eyes on as the season progresses.

Check back next week for my full preview, including team records, award winners, and a Super Bowl champion.

Green Bay Packers

Best Case:

Quarterback is the most important position, and Green Bay has the best quarterback in the league. Aaron Rodgers covers up a lot of flaws in a roster, and over the past couple years they’ve done a decent job patching up some of those holes. The absence of offensive weapons is still concerning, but Martellus Bennett will give Rodgers the best tight end he has ever played with, helping the offense as both a receiver and a blocker.

The Packers have shed some talent on offense, and in doing so they’ve been able to restock their defense. They have invested a lot of high picks in their secondary, and if Damarious Randall and Quinton Rollins can stay healthy they could be reasonably competent on the back end. Only time will tell if Nick Perry can repeat his 10 sack performance from a year ago, but even if he can’t they have more depth along the front, with a pair of 2016 rookies Kenny Clark and Dean Lowry  coming on strong at the end of last year. There are still a lot of uncertainties on this roster, but Rodgers covers a lot of those, and if things break right they could easily be the best team in the NFC.

Worst Case:

This may sound strange, but I think Green Bay’s offense could be in trouble. Rodgers is great, and he will win several games on his own, but at a certain point he is going to need some help from the talent around him. Green Bay’s wide receivers are below average for probably the first time in his career, and their running back depth chart is made up of a converted wide receiver and four rookies.

The biggest concern is on the offensive line. Green Bay has lost TJ Lang and Josh Sitton over the past two offseasons, and right tackle Bryan Bulaga has missed time during the preseason with an ankle injury. This line has always been inconsistent in the running game, but over the past few years they’ve been among the best in the league protecting the passer. The absence of a running back experienced in pass protection will prove extra damaging if their front can’t hold together as it has. It probably won’t be enough to knock them out of the playoffs, but I could see Green Bay’s offense hitting enough bumps along the road to leave them with only nine wins.

Player to Watch: Geronimo Allison, WR

Green Bay’s receivers aren’t very good. Jordy Nelson never looked completely right coming off a torn ACL two years ago, and he is 32 years old. Randall Cobb hasn’t been the same since he got his new contract. And Davante Adams remains maddeningly inconsistent, looking extraordinary at times while proving a major liability at others.

The Packers might have something in 2016 undrafted free agent Allison. He didn’t get many opportunities last year, but he shined at the very end of the season, with 13 catches for 157 yards over the final two weeks. He has excellent size at 6-3, and despite a 4.67 forty he looks fast on the field. He’s still got a long way to go to prove he’s worthy of consistent playing time (and a Week 1 suspension won’t help), but if he breaks out he could be the extra weapon this offense so desperately needs.

Minnesota Vikings

 

Best Case:

Minnesota was the last team to remain undefeated a year ago, and they were a playoff caliber squad before injuries destroyed their offensive line and hobbled their defense. They didn’t make a lot of changes in the offseason, but better injury luck should be enough to make them a playoff team. Their defense is absolutely loaded with talent, starting from arguably the best pair of pass rushers in the league, around a dominant nosetackle in Linval Joseph, back through a linebacking corps of Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr, to the big money secondary featuring Xavier Rhodes and Harrison Smith. There are stars on every level of this defense and no glaring holes, and if they can stay healthy they will be in contention for the best defense in the league.

This is a playoff team, and if things break right they have the ceiling to go much farther than that. Sam Bradford was put in a brutal situation a year ago behind an offensive line that was terrible even before everyone got hurt, and he had the best season of his career. Things will only get easier this year, as he flings the ball around to a young and talented receiving corps. Adding Dalvin Cook will help a running game that was at the bottom of the league a year ago. This offense has the potential to be good, and if they are simply above average their defense is strong enough to win them games against any team in the league.

Worst Case:

All the flaws of Minnesota’s roster that killed them a year ago are still there. They threw a lot of money at their offensive line this offseason, but neither Riley Reiff or Mike Remmers is an above average tackle. They’re counting on health from players like Stefon Diggs and Harrison Smith who have rarely stayed healthy, and they will likely need immediate contributions from late round picks in order to take any sort of step forward.

The biggest question remains at quarterback. Bradford was good last year, but he was good in a very limited way. He checked the ball down far too often, ignoring better opportunities even on the rare occasion his offensive line gave him protection. And heading into a free agent year, his performance is going to leave the Vikings in a very tricky situation. Teddy Bridgewater is still a better (and younger) quarterback, but he very well could miss a second straight season. If the Vikings go through another mediocre season, they could be forced to choose between two very difficult options at quarterback, heading into the offseason with a talented team crippled by uncertainty at the most important position.

Player to Watch: Tom Johnson, DT

Johnson has been a quiet star ever since arriving in Minnesota. A long time backup with the Saints, he was brought to the Vikings as a rotation defensive tackle and immediately contributed as a pass rushing specialist. He had 12 sacks over his first two years with the team, and while he stumbled a little with only two a season ago, he still projects as the best interior pass rusher on one of the most dominant defensive fronts in the league.

The defensive tackle rotation is one of the few uncertainties on Minnesota’s defense. Sharrif Floyd is a sensational player, but he has shown no indication that he can stay on the field, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he didn’t play at all this year. None of Minnesota’s tackles projects as a full time starter next to Joseph, but Johnson is just one piece of an extremely deep rotation. Between Johnson, Shamar Stephen, and rookie Jaleel Johnson, the Vikings should have no problem holding firm up front, leaving them with very few positions of concern on the defensive side of the ball.

Chicago Bears

Best Case:

I like the Bears a lot more than most people. They don’t have a lot of flashy talent at flashy positions, but along the offensive and defensive fronts they are up there with the best in the league. Their defense doesn’t have any big names, but they have tremendous depth, with quality players like Akiem Hicks, Eddie Goldman, Willie Young, Lamarr Houston, Jerrell Freeman, Danny Trevathan, and Leonard Floyd rotating through their front seven. They are stout at every position up front, and they made some smart moves in free agency to shore up their back end.

The ceiling of this team is defined by their quarterback play. Mike Glennon is going to start the season, but he won’t last long. Sooner or later Mitch Trubisky is going to take over, and I think he will have an immediate positive impact. His early ups and downs may make it tough for this team to make the playoffs, but they are closer than most people think, and I could see them wrapping up the season strong with eight wins.

Worst Case:

The quarterback situation could elevate the Bears, or it could sink them. Though the offensive line is strong, the lack of talent on the outside leaves them in a tricky position with the passing game. This is going to be a run first offense, and run first offenses really don’t work in the modern NFL. They’re going to need to throw to win some games, and the longer they rely on Glennon to bail them out, the uglier things are going to get.

The Bears are on a good trajectory, but this could be one last miserable year before they pull out of their tailspin. The young players on defense could take time to properly jell. Jordan Howard could regress after a remarkable rookie season. And even if Trubisky gets in, he could experience the rough patches that almost all inexperienced quarterbacks do. In the long run this team is set up great, and a bad year might actually be for the best if it gets John Fox out of there and lets them build around something new.

Player to Watch: Cody Whitehair, C

Chicago’s offensive line is quietly one of the best in the league, and their strength is up the middle. Josh Sitton and Kyle Long are experienced veterans who have excelled for several years, and a season ago they were joined by a promising young center in Whitehair. Chicago’s second round pick played primarily tackle in college, but he made a smooth transition to the interior a year ago.

The role of a center in the offense can’t be overstated, and Whitehair will only be better in his second year playing the position. The whole line will run a lot smoother with him calling the shots in the middle, giving their excellent guards even more flexibility to cover for their occasionally shaky tackles. Whoever ends up playing quarterback, they will have the comfort of a reliable pocket in front of them to step up into whenever pressure begins to close in off the edge.

Detroit Lions

Best Case:

Matthew Stafford is now the highest paid player in NFL history, and he’s in position to put up some big time stats. The talent on this offense is among the best in the league, and now entering his second full season in this offensive system, Stafford is in a perfect comfort zone to sling the ball around. The Lions have invested a lot in their offensive line over the past two offseasons, and they should be able to give their quarterback the time he needs to get the ball to their deep stable of pass catchers.

Detroit’s defense is still a problem, but simple regression to the mean suggests that they will be better than they were a year ago. Ziggy Ansah is still a very talented player, and there’s no way he finishes with only two sacks again this year. They don’t have to be good to lift the Lions into the fringe of playoff contention. Simply moving to tenth worst from absolute worst could be enough to keep this team alive down the stretch.

Worst Case:

Detroit made the playoffs last year, but they shouldn’t have. Over and over throughout the season they were bailed out by improbable last minute heroics. They won nine games, and eight required fourth quarter comebacks, an NFL record that they absolutely cannot repeat. This team was a few bad breaks away from being a trainwreck a year ago, and it could happen this year.

The future in Detroit is pretty grim. They were forced into an awkward position with Stafford, and now they’re left paying $27 million a year to a league average starting quarterback. Outside of Ansah and Darius Slay they have nothing to work with on defense, and as deep as their offense is it still lacks any player who can take over a game when they need it. Detroit is in for a rough season, and then probably another two or three rough seasons, hopefully to get a couple of quality young players to build around the final years of Stafford’s contract.

Player to Watch: Theo Riddick, RB

Detroit hasn’t had a quality running game in a while, and that isn’t going to change this year. The additions on their offensive line will certainly help open up some holes, but the talent in their backfield just isn’t there to sustain a serious threat on the ground. Ameer Abdullah has looked competent over his first couple years, but he can’t stay on the field, and it isn’t worth tailoring an offense around a player with limited upside and major availability concerns.

Riddick is the best option for Detroit in the backfield, and he perfectly fits with the quick hitting passing style they want to run. He only played in ten games a year ago, but those ten games produced 53 receptions. Two years ago he had 80 over the course of a full season, and if he stays healthy he could push towards 100. Stafford has his flaws as a quarterback, but he is an expert of making something out of awkward situations, adjusting his angle to hit a checkdown through unusual passing lanes and opening things up for his running back to make big plays.

2017 AFC North Preview

Pittsburgh Steelers

Best Case:

The Steelers are the class of the AFC North again, and it really isn’t that close. They have the best quarterback in the division and the most proven offensive line. They have the best wide receiver and the best running back in the entire league, and they’re getting back a dynamic secondary threat in Martavis Bryant. Their defense is still a work in progress, but it has a lot of young talent, and it was playing at a high level down the stretch a year ago.

The question isn’t whether the Steelers can win this division. The question is whether they can knock off the Patriots when the two teams inevitably meet in the playoffs. Pittsburgh has struggled for years against New England, and in the AFC Championship last year they were hopelessly outmatched, with a defensive scheme that allowed Brady to pick them to pieces. They need to radically change the way they attack New England on defense, and they need to hope their offense can stay on the field together. If both these things happen, they are likely the only team in the AFC with a realistic shot of knocking off the Patriots.

Worst Case:

Things always seem to break down for Pittsburgh, and it’s entirely possible it will happen again this year. Both Le’Veon Bell and Ben Roethlisberger have struggled to stay healthy throughout their careers, and after a year away from football it’s hard to know what to expect from Bryant. This offense never quite hit its full stride a year ago, and they could run into the same problem again if they can’t maintain continuity.

Pittsburgh’s defense has been a problem for years, and strong play aside down the stretch in 2016, this still isn’t a unit that jumps off the board at you. Their secondary will be overmatched by almost every receiver they go against, and their edge rushers are a pair of athletic freaks with little proven success. Teams have thrown the ball all over the Steelers for years, and it could easily happen again. It likely won’t be enough to knock them out of the playoffs, but this team’s expectations are the Super Bowl, and falling short of that again would be a disappointment.

Player to Watch: Alejandro Villanueva, OT

Villanueva is the sort of story that almost seems like it was manufactured by the league as a marketing ploy. He played college football for Army, where he rotated between defensive end, offensive tackle, tight end, and wide receiver, before serving his mandated time in the military. Spending a total of 20 months in Afghanistan, he earned a Bronze Star for rescuing wounded soldiers, then decided to resume his football career after he was discharged.

This is an incredible story, and it became even more incredible when he moved into the starting lineup for the Steelers a year and a half ago. Now entrenched at left tackle, Villanueva has weathered some early bumps to become a reliable blind side protector. Much of the credit deserves to go to offensive line coach Mike Munchak, who has crafted Pittsburgh’s front into one of the best in the league. Villanueva is his greatest success, a raw athlete with limited background and an incredible story who has become a major contributor on one of the best teams in the league.

Cleveland Browns

Best Case:

Somebody should probably check to make sure I’m okay, but I think the Browns have a chance to make the playoffs this year. The wild card race in the AFC is extremely thin, and the Browns have added a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. They paid big money this offseason to add JC Tretter and Kevin Zeitler, potentially elevating their good offensive line into one of the best in the league. They added Kenny Britt at wide receiver (he had over 1000 yards last year catching passes from Case Keenum and Jared Goff) and drafted David Njoku to play tight end, giving them two more dangerous offensive weapons. And let’s not forget first overall selection Myles Garrett, who has the potential to contribute double digit sacks right off the bat.

As with most teams, the fortunes of the Browns are going to come down to their quarterback. They smartly decided to turn things over to rookie DeShone Kizer, giving them another spark of upside. There are some major concerns about Kizer’s accuracy, but his intelligence and physical tools make him ready to start in the NFL from day one, and if he can clean up his main glaring flaw he can lead this team to nine or ten wins.

Worst Case:

A lot has to go right for the Browns to pull this off, and things rarely go right for the Browns. In all seriousness, Cleveland is a very young team, and young teams often face more rough patches than you’d expect just looking at the talent on their roster. The players they have can produce at a very high level, but most have little experience in the league, and the margins for error in the NFL are slim enough that these first and second year players can be burned by a few mental mistakes here and there.

Even with the talent they’ve added, there are still major holes along Cleveland’s defense. The star power is there with Garrett, and they have a good veteran cornerback in Joe Haden, but outside of that this is a unit that is very unproven. Players like Jabrill Peppers, Emmanuel Ogbah, and Danny Shelton have the ability to become major contributors, but I’m less optimistic about their success than I am about the more veteran offense. There is a way things work out for the Browns to take a leap forward this year, but there are ten ways for them to fall flat on their face once again.

Player to Watch: Duke Johnson, RB

Johnson was a favorite of mine coming out in the draft in 2015, and going into his third season he is in prime position to break out. Over his first two seasons he had only 737 yards rushing (on a respectable 4.2 yards per carry), but he surpassed 500 yards receiving in each season as a threat out of the backfield. With Cleveland’s increased stable of weapons he will have even more opportunities, especially if they turn the offense over to Kizer.

Hue Jackson is one of the most creative offensive minds in the league, and word out of training camp is that he’s taken a shine to Johnson. This year Johnson won’t be confined to just operating out of the backfield. He will likely spend time split out at wide receiver, presenting difficult matchups for defenses as he uses his quickness and receiving skills to overwhelm linebackers and safeties. Johnson may not be a feature running back, but his versatility makes him the ideal weapon for a clever offensive system.

Baltimore Ravens

Best Case:

Baltimore is one of the best managed and best coached organizations in the league, and it’s hard to ever count them truly out. They did a good job filling a major hole at wide receiver when the Chiefs oddly decided to release Jeremy Maclin, and they added a good piece to their secondary by picking up Tony Jefferson.

Baltimore isn’t going to be a fun team. They can win some games nasty, bolstered by a strong run defense centered around Brandon Williams and CJ Mosely. And if they get immediate contributions from rookies like Marlon Humphrey and Tyus Bowser, this defense could return to the top of the league. It doesn’t look like they’ll get much from their offense, but they may not need much, if they can scrape together a few ugly wins and make it into a wild card spot.

Worst Case:

Baltimore is good at stopping the run, but against the pass their defense could be in serious trouble. Their secondary would have looked fantastic three years ago, but Brandon Carr and Jimmy Smith haven’t performed well in recent years, and Eric Weddle is 32 years old. Even more troubling is the pass rush, where the only proven contributor is the 34 year old Terrell Suggs.

Baltimore hasn’t drafted well in recent years, and their attempts to bolster depth through free agency have mostly resulted in players like Mike Wallace. This was a team that was built on homegrown talent surrounding a serviceable quarterback, and without that talent we are seeing just how mediocre Joe Flacco is. He struggles under pressure, and he doesn’t make enough tight window throws to bail out a shaky receiving corps. And there is little real hope on the horizon, with almost no young talent on offense and a contract that will keep Flacco around at least through the end of the 2018 season.

Player to Watch: Austin Howard, OT

Baltimore’s offensive line was looking very shaky after the departure of Ricky Wagner this offseason. Marshall Yanda is still a beast, and Ronnie Stanley looked promising in his rookie year, but with very little skill position talent on offense they need a line that is far above average. And going into the season it looked like average was the best they were going to do, before fortune handed them a gift.

Howard isn’t going to replace Wagner by any means, but he is at least competent, which might be enough to elevate this unit to the level it needs to be. Howard was a key part of Oakland’s elite offensive line last year, before injuries stifled him and ended his stint with the team. The Raiders chose to cut him loose a couple weeks ago, and the Ravens snapped him up in an instant. Howard is the sort of player a team like Baltimore desperately needs, a reliable veteran who can plug into one of the many holes on their roster.

Cincinnati Bengals

Best Case:

Cincinnati isn’t going to make the playoffs this year. They snuck into first round playoff losses for several years, but their roster has slowly eroded since then, removing their greatest strengths and leaving them with little surrounding Andy Dalton. This team needs to start looking at 2018, and the best that can come from this year is seeing growth from the young talent already on their roster.

There is talent here, even if it hasn’t shown it yet. 2015 first round pick Cedric Ogbuehi is probably a lost cause, but their second round selection in that draft Jake Fisher still has potential manning the right tackle spot. They have good depth in the backfield, but rookie Joe Mixon is by far their best option, and getting him on the field to develop as a runner and receiver will offer another dynamic playmaker for the future. The defense is a bit more of a concern, but Carl Lawson has pass rush upside, the sort of thing that can shine in an otherwise miserable five or six win season.

Worst Case:

It’s amazing how bad a team can get when they constantly let their best players walk in free agency and make no effort to replace them. A year after watching their offense suffer when their number two and number three receivers moved on, the Bengals were content to let their two best offensive linemen follow them out of town. Kevin Zeitler just got $60 million from the Browns, and longtime Bengal Andrew Whitworth is now holding down the blind side for the Rams. Cincinnati’s biggest addition was Kevin Minter, a middle of the pack linebacker who was anonymous in Arizona.

There is no way this team is better than they were a year ago, and a year ago they finished with a top ten draft pick. Their draft picks over the past few years have shown little promise, and they are stubbornly insistent on avoiding free agency. For the first time in his career Dalton is going to have to carry a mediocre supporting cast, something he is not equipped to do. The Bengals are likely a bottom five team this year, and while we should no longer be shocked by Marvin Lewis’s survival skills, I have to believe this is his last year in Cincinnati.

Player to Watch: Tyler Boyd, WR

First round pick John Ross is going to get all the attention, but Cincinnati’s best hope for a young wide receiver to contribute is second year player Boyd. Boyd doesn’t have the physical gifts of Ross, but he is a much better fit for what Dalton and this offense need. While Ross gives them another down the field option in addition to AJ Green, Boyd will excel at attacking the underneath parts of the defense, far easier and more reliable throws for their shaky quarterback to make.

Boyd’s rookie season wasn’t spectacular, but he did haul in a respectable 54 passes for 603 yards. More importantly, he converted targets into catches at a higher rate than Green, Brandon LaFell, or even Tyler Eifert. He should have a bigger role in the offense this year, with a skillset that perfectly complements the other receivers on this team and gives the Bengals the sort of depth of receiving targets that they lacked a year ago.