2024 Offensive Prospects

Skill Positions

Marvin Harrison Jr, WR, Ohio State

Harrison is the best wide receiver I’ve scouted in ten years of doing this, and whoever is the first team that decides they don’t need a quarterback should be running to the podium to select him. He has nearly everything you could ask for in a wide receiver. It starts with his size, standing 6-3 and weighing 209 pounds, and possessing the body control to put to use. He consistently wins at the catch point, with the ability to elevate over defenders on vertical routes and the strength to fight through contact to pull the ball in. His ball tracking skills are excellent, and he’s clever about deploying his hands late to prevent defenders from making a play on the ball.

What really sets Harrison apart though is his route running. Receivers this big and this young simply don’t get open like he can. His quickness, strength, and flexibility at the line of scrimmage make him almost impossible to jam, and from there he has a variety of tools to get open. He makes sharp and efficient cuts, and he sells them with deceptive leans and head-fakes to get a defender flat-footed before darting away from him. He’s the sort of receiver you can throw it to and count on him to make a play when he’s covered, but also the sort of receiver who is very rarely covered.

If there’s one nit to pick with Harrison’s game, it’s that he isn’t the most explosive player. He can get separation over the top, but it only appears sporadically, and most of the time he slow-plays things off the line to set up his routes. After the catch he is smart about finding space and can pull away once he’s built up to full speed, but he doesn’t necessarily make people miss. It might have been nice if he had done the typical pre-draft athletic tests to help us confirm that he really is a top-tier NFL athlete, but he reasonably decided it wasn’t that important for his draft stock. He looked athletic enough on the field, and ultimately I don’t really care whether he runs a 4.35 forty or 4.45. There is no scenario where he should fall out of the top five, and if he lasts that long it’s only because the top four teams really wanted quarterbacks.

 

Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

If you really value explosiveness in a receiver, Nabers is your guy. It isn’t just that he’s fast, it’s that he gets up to full speed in a hurry. Make one wrong step against him, and he is simply gone, able to get deep behind the secondary to give his quarterback an easy layup for a touchdown. And when he gets the ball in his hands, he is a nightmare to bring down. It’s the sort of burst that messes with defenders’ heads, leaving them flailing at air or chasing meekly behind him as he scampers past for a big gain.

There are reports that some people have Nabers as the best receiver in the class, and I can see the appeal of someone who moves like this, even if he falls short of Harrison in basically every other part of playing receiver. Right now he’s a pretty good route runner largely off of raw ability, making sharp cuts at full speed and simply running away from cornerbacks who try to keep up with him. I think he has the potential to become a great route runner if he can learn to vary his pace better, but in the meantime he could struggle against zone coverages and the rare NFL cornerbacks who can match his speed.

The bigger concern I have with him is at the catch point. He wasn’t challenged on contested catches much in college, because there weren’t that many times defenders were actually close enough to make a play on the ball. But when he did have opportunities, he didn’t often make the most of them. He doesn’t seem to have particularly strong hands, and he struggles going outside the frame of his body to make a play on the ball. This too can be improved, and in the end if he can consistently get open, it’s not the end of the world if he drops a ball he should catch every now and then. Someone with this ability shouldn’t fall outside of the top ten, even if it will take some work for him to fully harness it.

 

Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

If you combined the strengths of Nabers and Odunze you’d have a pretty much perfect wide receiver. Odunze is incredible at the point of the catch. Fantastic body control, a huge catch radius, and strength to fight off contact from defenders and drag the ball in. He doesn’t need to be open in order to be a dangerous target.

This is good, because Odunze isn’t great at getting open. The concerns I had about explosiveness with Harrison are even more extreme with Odunze, and while a strong Combine performance reassures me a little, it’s still hard to trust a receiver who primarily works vertically but struggles to create separation over the top. His ability to track the ball and elevate to make plays makes the throwing windows much bigger than they look, and every now and then he flashes some subtlety in his route-running that suggests he could develop into a receiver who can eat up the middle of the field. But he can get pushed around by press coverage, and while he can power through some tackles after the catch, his lack of burst means another tackler is usually close enough to finish the job.

There’s a place for players who win like Odunze in the NFL. He reminds me a lot of players like Tee Higgins, George Pickens, and Mike Williams, excellent number two receiving options but players who would struggle if pushed into a role as a primary option. The most important thing an NFL wide receiver can do is create separation, and it would be hard for me to justify a top ten pick on someone who struggles to do this as much as Odunze does.

 

Brian Thomas, WR, LSU

Thomas is a bit one-dimensional at this point, but it’s a hell of a dimension to have. Players who are 6-3 and run a 4.33 forty are a rare commodity, and combining that with excellent ball tracking abilities makes him the premier deep threat in this year’s class. Any defender that tries to challenge him is at risk of being run by in a hurry, as he continues to accelerate even through the top of his route to create huge separation and easy throwing windows down the field.

There is enough nuance already to Thomas’s game that I think he can develop into a more complete receiver. He’s quick off the line in a way that makes it very difficult to play press coverage, and if a cornerback misses his jam attempt, there are very few players with the speed to keep up with Thomas over the top. He shows flashes of being able to make sharp cuts on his routes, though occasionally his footwork gets sloppy and will take an extra step.

The one thing I really wanted to see out of Thomas that wasn’t there is physicality. He seems to have a small catch radius for someone of his size, and he doesn’t do well fighting through contact to make plays on the football. On paper he seems like the sort of receiver who should be able to win catches even when he isn’t open, and the fact that he doesn’t could be a real hindrance to his continued development. The potential is there, but right now he’s a bit too boom-or-bust for me to take until the safer three options are off the board (though I could see a case for him over Odunze).

 

Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

There has been a lot of talk this year about how to value a tight end in the first round. An elite tight end is a very valuable piece of any offense. The final four teams in the playoffs last year may have the four best tight ends in the NFL. But none of those tight ends were selected in the first round. The elite players recently have come out of the second or third round mostly, with first round players largely disappointing. It’s a position that is very difficult to evaluate, and that makes people wary about spending premium draft capital on it.

Those concerns are real, and they are enough to knock even a dominant college player like Bowers down the board. He excelled beating up on smaller and slower defenders in college, but it’s just hard to know how effective he’ll be at a level where there are players who can come close to matching him physically and athletically. He’s a bit on the small size for a tight end, and he elected not to do any athletic testing in the pre-draft process, which could have helped clarify if he’s a genuinely elite athlete or simply one who is pretty good.

But even with all of these concerns, the tape is still enough to justify a pick in the latter half of the first round. Bowers is a phenomenal route-runner, able to make sharp breaks over the middle and clever about finding holes in the back end of a defense. He has a huge catch radius, though I would like to see him be stronger at the catch point. His physicality shows up once he gets the ball in his hands though, as he is difficult to drag down and will almost always fall forward for an extra three or four yards.

I feel pretty confident that he can transition seamlessly to an NFL role, but I’ve felt that way about tight ends before and been wrong. He comes out of an NFL-style system, and he has experience as a blocker, most of it good with occasional ugly plays that make me think he will most likely be simply average in that part of the game. He doesn’t need to be more than average, though. As long as he’s good enough to fill that role in an offense, his talents down the field should be enough to make him a high level player, a potential superstar with some very real downside risk.

 

Offensive Line

Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

Alt is comfortably the best offensive lineman in this draft. He’s built almost exactly as you would design an offensive tackle, with incredible length and sturdy weight that sits easily on his frame and doesn’t slow him down at all. His movement skills are a clear step above every other prospect as well. He gets easy depth on his initial drop to take away the speed rush and then dances with impeccable balance to mirror any counter-moves the defender might throw at him. He is pretty much always in perfect position, and even on the rare occasion when he slips up, his strength and athleticism allow him to recover with ease.

Alt has a variety of tools at his disposal in pass protection. He has a solid punch that can slow rushers down, with long arms that allow him to make contact before the defender can even get within range to grab him. He can get caught leaning too far forward if this punch misses, but his recovery ability is usually enough to stop this from becoming a genuine problem for the quarterback. Occasionally his long frame works against him—standing nearly 6-9, he sometimes will get caught playing too high and can get knocked back a couple steps by a bull rush. But he is usually able to sink his hips and anchor, which doesn’t always give the quarterback a lot of space to work with but usually keeps the defender from bringing him down.

If there’s an area that keeps Alt from being truly elite it’s as a run blocker, where he is merely very good. His athleticism makes him effective as a puller or racing to the second level, and gives him the ability to swing his hips around to seal a defender off from the play. But as a point-of-attack blocker he doesn’t generate much drive, and on occasion can even lose leverage and be knocked back a step. It’s not really a big deal, and it’s nothing that will stop him from being an anchor on the left side of a line for the next decade, well worth a selection in the top ten.

 

Taliese Fuaga, OT/OG, Oregon State

Fuaga is another player whose game is built off of athleticism. He typically takes a fairly conservative approach in pass protection, setting straight backwards and using his hands to keep himself clean while his feet mirror the defender in front of him. When he needs to, he is able to deliver a strong punch that can halt a defender or widen him to give his feet time to get back into position, but most of the time he is content to let his athletic skill keep him in position.

There are some people who think Fuaga should move to guard, largely because of his slightly short arms. I think this would be a weird choice. His quickness is typically enough to make up for the slightly underwhelming length, and I’m not sure how well his game will translate to the inside. As a run blocker he is very good at getting into position and can make some impressive reach blocks, but he struggles to sustain contact when the ball comes near, and doesn’t generate a lot of movement down the field.

His overall strength is a question I still have after three games of watching him. There are moments when he can send people flying, but they are few and far between. And while he’s very good at using his hands to keep defenders from getting into his chest, he can be shoved backwards by a bull rush on the rare occasion they do. He needs to get stronger at the next level, or else figure out how to harness the strength he has.

All that said, his athletic abilities are rare enough that I’d be willing to take a shot on him in the middle of the first round in the hope that he can figure things out. I think he’ll be a good player no matter where he settles, though there is the possibility he is both not long enough to play on the outside and not physical enough to play on the interior. More likely these shortcomings will keep him from ever being truly elite as a lineman, while he still carves out a solid career as a reliable starter.

 

Troy Fautanu, OT/OG, Washington

Fautanu is a very similar player to Fuaga, and there isn’t that much reason I have them ranked in this order. I think Fuaga’s movement skills are a notch above Fautanu’s—elite rather than simply very good—and that is what I prioritize most in an offensive lineman. Fautanu’s initial drops are good, and he gets in excellent position to cut the pass rush off from the quarterback, rarely being straight beaten around the edge. But his balance can abandon him some as the play develops, and he is vulnerable to counter-moves in a way Fuaga simply isn’t.

Fautanu is better in a few areas though. He’s better as a run blocker, though he also has a lack of physicality here that makes me worry a little about those who propose he should move to guard. But he’s very good at using his hips to seal off a play, and at moving to the second level to engage with a linebacker. I think he can play guard, but again I’d probably recommend he at least be given a shot at tackle.

The concerns I mentioned above with his recovery ability are real, but overall I think he has what it takes to be a very good tackle in pass protection. He’s very good with his hands, and he has excellent upper body strength that he harnesses in punches that can stop a pass rush move before it even gets started. Consistency will be the key though. If he can clean up his footwork, and if he can eliminate the occasional play where he gets shoved backwards with a bull rush, he can develop into a Pro Bowl caliber player.

 

Olu Fashanu, OT/OG, Penn State

The next three linemen after Alt are all clustered pretty tightly in the middle of the first round, and I wouldn’t necessarily be opposed to Fashanu being the first of them off the board, as a bet on his upside. He certainly has the look of an NFL tackle, tall and long and with very good athletic testing numbers. That athleticism is a bit spotty on the field though, so you’ll be betting on his best moments winning out over his worst with more development time.

Fashanu’s athleticism shows up with his initial drop, where he uses his length and his strength to instantly erase any easy path to the quarterback. The problems develop from there, though. At times he can show flashes of being able to mirror his opponent’s moves, but far more often his feet simply stop at the top of his drop, leaving him reaching outside his frame and relying solely on his strength to keep the pass rush from closing in. He has good hands when he uses them, but he also surrenders his chest too easily. He’s stout enough to anchor and hold his ground against most rushers, but this will lead to more problems in the NFL.

The bits and pieces of Fashanu’s game could come together to make him an elite edge protector in the NFL, or the flaws could remain and leave him unable to hold down even a starting role. Fortunately, his physical abilities are enough that I think he can slide to the inside if needed. He occasionally takes some bad angles in the running game, but he has the ability to drive people backwards to open up big holes behind him. And his occasional lapses with his footwork are less likely to be punished on the inside, one less thing he will have to worry about cleaning up.

 

JC Latham, OG, Alabama

Latham played tackle in college, but I don’t think there’s any way he can stick at that position in the NFL. He doesn’t have the footwork to hold up in pass protection on the edge, and he doesn’t have the quickness to develop that footwork. His initial drop is technically sound and can cut off the edge, but any reactive movement after that is hopeless. He’ll surrender easy lanes to the quarterback on the inside, and also lunge too aggressively to try to close those lanes off, opening a path around the edge.

He'll still have some issues with lateral quickness on the interior, but his wide frame and long arms can help erase some of that. And if he can stay in front of a rusher, going through him simply isn’t an option. Latham is the strongest lineman in the class, both driving people backwards in the running game and absorbing contact without giving an inch as a pass blocker. His hands are strong as well, and there is no breaking free from him, though combined with his shaky footwork this can lead to some holding. 

In the right circumstances he can develop into one of the best guards in the game. But the circumstances do matter, which is why I would wait until the latter part of the first round to take him. He’ll have some struggles at guard if he’s forced to play in a scheme that asks him to block a lot in space, whether it’s pulling to lead a play or trying to reach a defender as part of a zone scheme. Stick to running straight behind him, and you’ll have tremendous success. But if he’s plugged into an offense that doesn’t fit his style, he will have occasional struggles.

 

Jordan Morgan, OT/OG, Arizona

Note: I added this evaluation after Morgan was selected by the Green Bay Packers in the first round.

The number one thing I value for offensive linemen is movement ability. College football is filled with people who are big and strong and can stand in someone’s path and keep from being moved backwards, but there are very few who combine this with the ability to stay in front of the freakish athletes that have taken over the pass rush positions in the modern NFL. And at first glance, Morgan looks to be one of those few. He tested well athletically, and his initial movements on the field are generally good, able to get to where he needs to go on almost every play. He is quick off the ball and gets good depth on his drop to cut off the corner for pass rushers, and in the running game he is very good at getting to his spot and swinging his hips around to seal the defender away from the play.

Things kind of fall apart after that, though. Morgan seems to struggle with reactive movement. He hits the top of his drop and just kind of keeps going, drifting farther up the field and opening up lanes for rushers to beat him with inside moves. In the running game he doesn’t make any effort to mirror the guy he’s blocking, and quicker defenders can slip around him and catch the ball carrier. It’s possible this is just an issue of footwork, and that with time and practice Morgan can learn to do a better job here. But I’m worried that his athletic abilities are simply too linear, and he'll struggle any time he’s put into a position where a defender has space to work against him.

The one place where Morgan really excels is with his hands. He has short arms that can occasionally cause him some problems, but when he is able to get his hands on a defender he can absolutely dominate a play. People stagger backwards beneath his initial punch, and he has a strong grip that latches on with enough force to prevent many of the lateral moves that cause him problems. Unfortunately, his lack of quickness means that people can still get outside his frame even as he maintains this grip. He wasn’t called for any holding penalties in the games I watched, but it wasn’t for lack of trying, and I doubt he’ll be as lucky in the NFL.

The biggest problem with his hands is that they are simply too wide. He uses this width to make up for some of his limitations moving laterally, but it also leaves his chest exposed to attacks from defenders. But he’s usually able to anchor well enough to deal with this, and hand positioning is something that can be fixed relatively easily in the NFL. The last person I remember having these concerns with was Tyler Smith, who just made an All Pro team in his second year in the league. Of course, he did so after moving to guard, where he could focus on his hand usage without having to worry as much about people running around him. A similar position change is probably the best course for Morgan as well, and even if he is unlikely to reach these same heights, I think his strength and high-level movement skills could make him a good guard, worthy of a second-round selection.