We are only a couple of days away from the kickoff of the NFL season, which means it’s well past time for me to get going on my previews. In past years I typically began a month before the season and wrote an individual piece for each division, before wrapping it up with two more final previews. Clearly, I’m not doing that this year. Instead of my usual ten posts, I’m only doing three this year, starting today by looking at the AFC.
(If you’re wondering whether this means I am phasing out Limited Interests, I should point out that it’s already been slowing down in recent years. This is the tenth season I’m doing this, and there’s a decent chance it’s also the last. I started this when I was in college when I had loads of free time, but that has slowly withered away—I have a job now, and two dogs, and a house that needs more maintenance than I’ve been giving to it. And there are other things I enjoy more than this blog. So yes, while Limited Interests will still pop up throughout the 2022 season, at this point I’m not willing to commit to anything beyond that.)
But back to the matter at hand.
There has been a shift in power in recent years, and now it feels like the AFC is clearly the better and the deeper of the two conferences. After nearly two decades dominated by Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and to a lesser extent Ben Roethlisberger, the AFC is now swarming with young quarterbacks who will spend the next five to ten years battling each other to come out on top.
Below I’ve gone through each division with my predictions for every team, and brief explanations for why I think they’ll wind up with these records. But I have been known to make one or two mistakes in the decade I’ve been writing this blog, so I also hedge my bets a little by picking a team I’m most likely to be wrong about, either because I’m underestimating their upside or overestimating their competence. And then, finally, I pick out one less-heralded player from each division to keep your eyes on.
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts: 11-6
Jacksonville Jaguars: 7-10
Houston Texans: 4-13
What I think will happen:
The past two years in this division have been a hotly contested battle between Indianapolis and Tennessee at the top, while Jacksonville and Houston work to rebuild at the bottom. The only thing I see changing this year is that I don’t expect the Titans to be competitive. They put together a couple of good years on the strength of a powerful running game and a play-action attack that played perfectly to the strengths of Ryan Tannehill, but their offensive firepower has quickly faded away. Their line is a mess, and unless Treylon Burks becomes an immediate star, they don’t have much in the way of weapons either. They made some major strides on defense a year ago, but that is always hard to sustain, and I expect them to be pushed into a position of hitting the reset button after 2022.
So the only question is whether the Jaguars or Texans can break out and defy expectations to compete for a playoff spot. I’m pretty comfortable eliminating the Texans from that conversation. They simply don’t have very much talent, and I didn’t see anything from Davis Mills last year to convince me he’s anything other than a solid backup option. The bounty they got from casting off Deshaun Watson gives them a good foundation to build on, but it isn’t going to show up this year.
Jacksonville is the more interesting case. Trevor Lawrence had a rookie season that disappointed most people, but I’m not sure how he could have been expected to perform well with the mess he had around him last year. Things will be steadier in 2022, and he has better weapons to throw the ball to. They still aren’t great weapons, and the Jaguars only marginally improved their offensive line, so there will still be struggles for the young quarterback. And while the defense has the potential to be feisty along the front, they have too many holes in the secondary for me to believe they can put together even a league-average unit. A push for a playoff spot isn’t as out of reach for Jacksonville as it is for Houston, but it would require a lot of things to break right at the same time to get them there.
Team I’m most likely to be wrong about: Indianapolis Colts
I barely mentioned the Colts in the section above because I think they’re the clear class of the division, and even in a worst-case scenario for them I think they’ll still find themselves in contention down the stretch. Their defense is loaded with talent, and while I have some concerns about the offensive line and receiving corps, I think they have enough on offense to at least be functional with a competent veteran passer.
That is the one big concern I have. Because I’m still not sure what to think of Matt Ryan. He’s spent the past few seasons toiling away on a Falcons team that gave him basically nothing to work with, so it’s difficult to take away many conclusions from that. At times he looked like an efficient distributor trapped with no one to distribute the ball to. At other times he looked completely lifeless, either disinterested or physically washed up.
We’ll get a sense pretty quickly in Indianapolis which of these is real. He’s clearly not the MVP-caliber player he once was, and I think that’s enough to talk me out of the Colts as an actual competitor with the other top teams in the conference. But if he’s the shell of himself he looked at times in Atlanta, this offense could become borderline unwatchable, and leave them struggling to win the division on the strength of their defense alone.
Player to Watch: Parris Campbell, WR, Indianapolis Colts
The Colts made no effort to resign TY Hilton this offseason, and they are fully embracing a youth movement in their receiving corps. Michael Pittman has already established himself as a very good receiver, and they’re looking at him to take another leap forward in his third year. At the other outside receiver they list Alec Pierce as the starter, a rookie second-round pick who will have plenty of opportunities to contribute but could struggle adjusting to the NFL.
The most experienced receiver on their roster is Campbell, but that isn’t saying much. Through his first three seasons Campbell played in only 15 games, and accumulated only 360 career receiving yards. So far in his career he’s suffered a broken foot, a sports hernia, a broken hand, a sprained MCL and PCL, and another broken foot. Now in the final year of his contract, it’s pretty much do-or-die time for the former second-round pick.
Campbell certainly has talent, though it’s hard to say how much these repeated injuries will linger. But if he still possesses the 4.31 speed that got him drafted in the first place, he could open up a whole new dimension of this offense. Whether streaking down the field for a deep ball or taking a short pass the distance, he has the potential to be the explosive secondary threat this offense desperately needs. At this point it’s hard to call it likely, but if he does come through it will make Indianapolis’s path to the playoffs even easier, and perhaps give them some fighting chance once they get there.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills: 13-4
Miami Dolphins: 8-9
New York Jets: 5-12
What I think will happen:
I don’t see a lot of movement in this division from last year either. Buffalo won the division a year ago, and the only reason it was particularly close was because they had insanely bad luck in close games. That bad luck continued into the postseason, where they lost in overtime to Kansas City in the second round. This is a team with a Super Bowl-caliber roster, and I think they’ll be in contention for that once again this year. The only concern I have is about some aging pieces on their defense, but they have young players in place to step up on that side of the ball as well, and I’ll hold off burying the likes of Jordan Poyer and Matt Milano until I see them genuinely lose a step.
The Jets are another team that feels like at least a year away from even being in consideration for a breakout. They’ve added some talented players on both sides of the ball in the draft, but young players are always a gamble, and they simply don’t have the veteran core needed to provide basic stability. I’m not overly enamored with the job that Robert Saleh has done so far either, and I have a lot of concerns about Zach Wilson, who was easily the worst of the rookie quarterbacks to see significant playing time last year.
The other two teams are just kind of in the middle. A few good breaks and they could sneak into the playoffs, but for the most part I don’t think they have what it takes to compete in an AFC that is getting tougher by the year. New England made an appearance in the playoffs a year ago thanks to a masterful job of coaching by Bill Belichick to get the most out of a roster with limited talent, and if there’s anyone who can repeat that kind of performance, it’s him. But I still have major concerns about basically every part of their offense, and with anyone else as coach this is a team I wouldn’t expect to even sniff the postseason.
Team I’m most likely to be wrong about: Miami Dolphins
I like the roster the Dolphins have put together. They have a couple of lethally fast receivers that will cause headaches for any defensive coordinator that has to try to contain them. They improved to their weakest point by signing the best offensive lineman in free agency in Terron Armstead (if he can stay healthy). Their defense is a fun combination of solid veterans and young players with the potential to explode into stars. With the right quarterback, this is a team that could be feisty in the AFC.
I have no idea if Tua Tagovailoa is the right quarterback. He pulled things together down the stretch in 2021, but that was only after Miami drastically simplified their offense to play to his strengths. They leaned on a lot of RPO plays to get the ball out of his hand as quickly as possible, partially because they couldn’t trust the blocking in front of him but also because he still struggles to go through more complex progressions. This is a strategy that can work, for a little while, but in the long run leaves them with a very narrow path to offensive success.
Tagovailoa’s talent coming out of college was undeniable, and he hasn’t been bad enough that we can just write him off after two seasons. If he takes a leap forward—and not even necessarily a Josh Allen sized leap—he can be the key the Dolphins need to unlock their offense. But such leaps are rare enough that I’d rather wait and be pleasantly surprised than try to forecast the Dolphins as a playoff team just yet.
Player to Watch: David Quessenberry, OT, Buffalo Bills
One of the first things the Bills did after drafting Allen was to build an offensive line in front of him. After his disastrous rookie season, they went out in free agency and signed Mitch Morse and Jon Feliciano, a very good veteran center and a guard with upside. The line never became an elite unit in front of him, but for the past two years it has been at the very least competent, enough that he could stand comfortably in the pocket and fire down the field without having to worry too often.
Keeping a talented roster together is always hard, and there are bound to be some sacrifices. For Buffalo these have come on the offensive line. They were forced to release Daryl Williams for salary cap reasons, costing them a functional rotation piece who can play either guard or tackle. His replacement was supposed to be Spencer Brown, but he has struggled with injuries during the offseason and is now sitting down the depth chart.
They are now left in the position of starting Quessenberry at right tackle. Quessenberry is a free agent who came over from Tennessee this offseason after starting every game for them a year ago, not a particularly boastworthy feat considering what the 2021 Titans offensive line accomplished. But his surroundings in Buffalo are undoubtedly an improvement, and if he can slide smoothly into this role, the Bills offense can still be the high-flying attack we’ve seen the past couple seasons. If he can’t though, Allen could soon find himself running for his life far more often than he's comfortable with. He is very good on the move, but every quarterback is better from the pocket, and if Buffalo’s offense hits some rough patches, they may have a harder time making the deep postseason run they are looking towards.
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs: 12-5
Los Angeles Chargers: 12-5Denver Broncos: 9-8
Las Vegas Raiders: 6-11
What I think will happen:
Kansas City has been one of the best teams in the league ever since Patrick Mahomes took over as quarterback, but they are entering an interesting place in 2022. Without Tyreek Hill for the first time, Mahomes will have to look other places to stretch the field. Marquez Valdes-Scantling never seemed to put it all together in Green Bay, and JuJu Smith-Schuster is much more of a middle-of-the-field possession target. And during the preseason they showed a lot more looks under center with heavier personnel, suggesting a shift in offensive approach.
Mahomes is still the best quarterback in the league, so I’m not too worried about them. But it’s easy for a team that’s seen this much success to become complacent during the regular season, and I expect there will be enough bumps along the road to give an ascendant Chargers team a chance to compete for the division. The Chargers fell just short of the playoffs a year ago, and they followed that up by being one of the most aggressive teams of the offseason, adding Khalil Mack and JC Jackson to bolster a defense that has always had talent but hasn’t been able to put it together. Another season without a playoff appearance would be a disaster, but fortunately I don’t think that’s likely.
The Raiders and the Broncos were both aggressive this offseason as well, but I think each will ultimately fall short of their goals. The Raiders in particular seem doomed to mediocrity. Davante Adams and Chandler Jones are two veteran superstars, but that doesn’t change the fact that they are starting Derek Carr in a division with two Hall of Famers and a third-year emerging star. They have issues on the offensive line and in the secondary, and I don’t really see any reason to believe Josh McDaniels has suddenly become a good coach after being a disaster in Denver a decade ago.
Team I’m most likely to be wrong about: Denver Broncos
The Broncos are the most interesting team in this division, and perhaps in the entire league. On paper, they feel like a team that should be very good. But I felt the same way a year ago, and while Russell Wilson is a clear improvement over Teddy Bridgewater, Bridgewater wasn’t exactly terrible in 2021. There were more issues with this team than just the quarterback position.
It’s just kind of hard to point to those issues when looking at the roster. They have a good pass rusher in Bradley Chubb. They have a potential superstar cornerback in Patrick Surtain alongside proven safety Justin Simmons. They have wide receivers who look good in flashes, and an offensive line anchored by Garrett Bolles who has emerged after some early-career struggles. Toss in a pair of good running backs and now a high-level quarterback, and this team looks fairly complete.
I’ll believe it when I see it. And I could very easily see it. Maybe the problems this team had a year ago were youth, and they’ll come along now that Surtain, Jerry Jeudy, and Courtland Sutton have a bit more seasoning and better veteran leadership. In another division, I might be willing to give these guys the benefit of the doubt. But the AFC West is brutal, and even if they make the postseason I think it will be only by the skin of their teeth.
Player to Watch: Randy Gregory, EDGE, Denver Broncos
Wilson is obviously the biggest addition by the Broncos this offseason, but the signing of Gregory is quietly a very good move that could have a huge impact on their defense. I listed a few big names on that side of the ball in the section above, but defense is often driven by its depth rather than its strengths, and adding a second quality pass rusher opposite Chubb will go a long way to building out that needed versatility and flexibility.
Gregory is an incredibly gifted player whose career was derailed by off-field issues, but he came back last year in Dallas to have a very strong performance in a part-time role. He put up 6.5 sacks while playing less than half the defensive snaps, and now in Denver he’ll have a chance to contribute in a much bigger way.
Gregory doesn’t need to be a star to have an impact. He just needs to take some of the offense’s attention, and give the Broncos someone else they can lean on so they can rest the injury-troubled Chubb. Chubb’s best year is still his rookie season when he was across from Von Miller, and giving him another quality partner could bring back the pass rushing monster that has only appeared in flashes the past three seasons.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: 12-5
Cincinnati Bengals: 10-7Cleveland Browns: 8-9
Pittsburgh Steelers: 7-10
What I think will happen:
There hasn’t been a team in recent memory as devastated by injuries as the Ravens were last year. They were decimated at running back before the season even started, and by the end of the year they were playing cornerbacks signed off the street as well. They missed key contributors at offensive line and wide receiver, and they were even without Lamar Jackson for four games. They’re going to be healthier this year simply because they can’t be as banged up as they were a year ago, and that alone should be enough to turn them into a playoff team again. I still don’t really see them as a team that can challenge the top competition in the AFC, but they should be fine within their own division.
Cincinnati obviously went on an incredible run a year ago, but I expect them to take a step back this year, while still remaining a playoff team with the potential to get hot at the right time again. If Cleveland was at full strength the entire year, they would probably be the best chance to challenge Baltimore. But with Deshaun Watson limited to only six games, they’re going to have a hard time winning without the quarterback they gave up so much to acquire. Jacoby Brissett is a fine option as a fill-in starter, but he isn’t the sort to create offense on his own, which is what they likely need from the quarterback position with a shaky offensive line and not much talent at wide receiver.
Pittsburgh is a team at a loss. They have a defense with multiple superstar players that hasn’t been able to cohere into a dominant unit recently, and an offense that is utterly without an identity. They seem to want to be a physical pounding team, but their offensive line is a disgrace. They have invested a lot at the wide receiver and quarterback position, but haven’t shown anything resembling consistency at either position. They are a well-coached team with enough talent to keep from bottoming out, but barring a stunning breakout from Kenny Pickett, I don’t think they’ll be in the running for anything at the end of the year.
Team I’m most likely to be wrong about: Cincinnati Bengals
I expect the Bengals to take a step back this year, for a few different reasons. For one, Baltimore’s return to health will make the division a lot tougher. For another, everything the Bengals did to succeed last year was really playing with fire. On offense they put everything on the shoulders of Joe Burrow, asking him to drop back over and over behind a line that couldn’t keep him on his feet. On defense they played extremely aggressive in coverage, and hoped that things worked out to avoid big plays.
Teams will be more prepared for Cincinnati this year, and the Bengals will have to ease off of their aggressive philosophy, both to adjust to opposing adjustments and to protect their most valuable assets. This is still a pretty young team at key places with a head coach I don’t entirely trust. Regression seems just about inevitable.
Except that I really like what Cincinnati did with their offseason. They looked at the biggest flaws their team had a year ago, and they attacked those flaws with every resource they had. Alex Cappa and La’el Collins aren’t stars on the offensive line by any means, but they are a definite improvement over what the Bengals had a year ago, and may give them more confidence in letting Burrow do his thing. I still have some concerns about their defense, though Dax Hill could be exactly the sort of playmaker they need on the back end. It may not matter though, because if they can recapture the offensive firepower they had to end 2021 they can keep up with anyone.
Player to Watch: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB/S/CB, Cleveland
As I mentioned above, the Browns will have a lot of trouble scoring points for most of the regular season. They have a quality running game, but that won’t do much good if teams pack the box and dare Brissett to beat them over the top to Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones. Things will obviously change when Watson returns, but for most of the season the Browns will have to try to win in a lot of low-scoring games.
That’s tricky for a team whose defense hasn’t really come together as you’d expect, given the big names on that side of the ball. Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward are obviously among the best in the league at their positions, but so far teams have been able to consistently move the ball picking on the other parts of their defense. The continued development of Greg Newsome will help lock things down in pass coverage, but Owusu-Koramoah may be the real key to securing this unit.
Owusu-Koramoah is a rare athlete who can play pretty much anywhere on the field. He’s skilled enough in coverage to match up with receivers and tight ends in the slot, and his speed and instincts in the box make him the sort of player who can single-handedly break blocking schemes. This will be particularly crucial against a team like Baltimore, where the quarterback presents such a threat with his legs. Owusu-Koramoah is the perfect swiss army knife that can be tailored to the opponent, and if the Browns utilize him properly they have a chance to stay alive long enough to get their offense working.
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