We are in the midst of the most chaotic NFL season that I can recall, and it’s hard to say anything with any certainty at this point. That said, I feel pretty good splitting the league into a bottom half as I do each year, and writing off these 16 teams as having no hope of actually competing for a Super Bowl this year.
Too High To Climb
These teams are still mathematically very much alive for the postseason. But it’s a long road ahead, and even if they sneak into the playoffs they aren’t going to make any noise when they get there.
Las Vegas Raiders (5-4)
The Raiders have had as tumultuous a first half of the season as you can imagine, and yet somehow they’re still sitting with a winning record. In theory if things stabilize under interim coach Rich Bisaccia they could put together a small run over the second half and claw their way into the postseason. Derek Carr is still the player who was performing like one of the best quarterbacks in the league earlier in the season, and getting Josh Jacobs back healthy could give another boost to their offense.
I just don’t really see it with this team. The losses they suffered over the first half of the season will continue to hurt them on the field even if the distractions off the field have gone away. Say what you will about Jon Gruden as a leader and a talent evaluator, he got more out of Carr and this offense than any coach before him. And while Henry Ruggs didn’t put up spectacular numbers, his presence as a threat to stretch defenses over the top is now sorely missing. Opposing defenses will continue to squeeze this Raiders offense, and they will have nowhere to turn for answers.
New Orleans Saints (5-4)
Just based on record the Saints seem to be in comfortable position right now. They are sitting in the second wild card in the NFC, being chased by less-than-intimidating competition like Carolina, Minnesota, and Atlanta. They have a veteran team with a very good defense that can keep things messy and give them a chance in most games.
They are also starting Trevor Siemian at quarterback. Their top wide receiver is Deonte Harris. Alvin Kamara and Terron Armstead have been in and out of the lineup. Sean Payton can scrape together some effective offense from this unit, but it won’t be enough against real competition. They may still be able to stumble their way into the playoffs. They aren’t going anywhere from there.
San Francisco 49ers (4-5)
San Francisco is a bit of a puzzle. Every time I feel ready to write them off, they come out and put together an excellent performance to keep hope alive. Most recently this was a Monday night blowout of the division rival Rams, in a game where they shut down Matthew Stafford on one side of the ball and ground the dangerous Rams defense to dust with their running game on the other side.
I still just see too many weak points to buy into them. Their secondary is full of holes, and not every team is going to drop a half dozen passes like the Rams did on Monday. Kyle Shanahan is capable of very creative play designs, but his offense feels a bit stodgy and overly conservative. And there is the looming question of the quarterback situation. Jimmy Garoppolo has looked impressive at some moments this year and disastrous at others, while Trey Lance watches from the sideline waiting to step in. His brief appearance on the field earlier this season raised more questions than hopes, but I have to imagine he’ll find some way back over the second half of the year.
Indianapolis Colts (5-5)
Indianapolis is in a very strange position. On the one hand, they have as many wins as losses through ten games which in theory puts them in position for a playoff run. On the other hand, that puts them ahead of only four teams in the AFC, in a cluster of teams that are far more talented and consistent than they are.
The Colts will go as far as Carson Wentz will take them, or as far as they will let him take them. The tricky dilemma they face is that the second round pick they traded to acquire him will upgrade to a first round pick if he plays 75 percent of the team’s offensive snaps, or if he plays 70 percent and they make the playoffs. That last option might make it worth the deal, but it would be tough to stomach if he continues his erratic, reckless play and they end up having to surrender something like the 14th selection. So far he has played more than 99 percent of their snaps, and they will need to have a quick trigger if things start to turn sour over the next couple weeks.
It’s A Start
These teams aren’t good, and they aren’t going anywhere. This year at least. But they have the rest of the season to build hope for 2022, which is more than can be said about a lot of teams in the league.
Chicago Bears (3-6)
The Bears have two main goals for the rest of the season: let Justin Fields keep growing, and make sure Matt Nagy doesn’t return in 2022. The first few appearances for Fields were extremely rough, but over the past few weeks he has hit highs that no other rookie quarterbacks have found yet. His process seems to be speeding up, his coaches have figured out how to keep him upright long enough to take advantage of his rare down the field accuracy, and he’s found opportunities to show off his athleticism with the ball in his hands.
Would it be nice for a few more young players to step up? Sure, it would be. Jaylon Johnson shows flashes of being a very good cornerback, and if he can even it out over the second half of the season it would give them something to build the back end of their defense around. It would be good to see Teven Jenkins get healthy so they can decide whether he’s worth keeping at left tackle. But honestly, this is really about Fields. He’s had games where he’s looked unplayable, and games where he’s looked unstoppable. He seems to be trending up, and if he can keep that going the Bears will enter the offseason with very high hopes for their future.
Atlanta Falcons (4-5)
A 43-3 defeat this past weekend has Falcons fans feeling pretty grim, but it shouldn’t distract from the fact that they’ve shown some signs of life this year. As a team as a whole they are still a major work in progress, but unlike in years past there are at least a few interesting young pieces that you can point to. On the defensive side AJ Terrell is emerging as a genuine superstar in his second year. If they can get any other competent players out there, they may finally be able to put together a functional defense.
And on offense, Kyle Pitts looks every bit the generational talent they hoped for when they took him fourth overall this past year. Through nine games he has the second most receiving yards among rookies and the third most among all NFL tight ends. He has the exact same receiving yardage as Mike Evans and DK Metcalf. He’s already one of the most dynamic receiving threats in the NFL, and he is only going to get better, giving the Falcons a weapon to build around that no other team in the NFL can match.
Philadelphia Eagles (4-6)
I’m not really sure how to feel about Philadelphia’s future. They’ve shown some good things on the offensive side of the ball this year, and they are loaded with draft picks next season that could help them build on their foundation. But that requires them to figure out whether Jalen Hurts is part of this foundation, or if he’s just an occasional fun player filling in while they wait for someone better.
Devonta Smith is a star to build around at wide receiver, and Javon Hargrave has been a monster this year at defensive tackle. Their defense is still on the old side, and this would have me thinking hard about using the draft to try to freshen up that unit and pushing off the quarterback question for another year. Hurts is inconsistent, but he brings enough athleticism to frustrate defenses. With potentially three high first round picks in this upcoming draft, Philadelphia has the opportunity to take a big swing at quarterback, or to try to build a cast of talent in the hopes they can answer that question later.
Going Nowhere Fast
These teams aren’t at the bottom of the league, but they might as well be. A couple extra wins here or there won’t do much for them in the long run and won’t earn them much with their fans in the middle of a lost season.
Denver Broncos (5-5)
Denver’s record has them in contention, but in a crowded AFC I don’t really see them pulling off a run to the playoffs. They got off to a fast start against a weak schedule but have faded since, and now they have to ask questions about why exactly they aren’t better than they are.
The belief before the season was that they just needed a quarterback to unlock the young talent on their roster, and after a training camp battle Teddy Bridgewater emerged as their starter. Bridgewater’s season has been a bit weird, looking very impressive by some advanced metrics but not really producing results on the field. It’s hard to really say if he’s the one holding this team back. Would an offseason trade for someone like Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers could put them over the top? Or are there lingering issues with their offensive line and coaching that will prevent them from ever pulling things together?
New York Giants (3-6)
Daniel Jones has actually been not terrible this year. He isn’t enough to make the Giants good, but if he was surrounded by a decent supporting cast I could see him being enough to lead a team to the playoffs. And if that happened, it would be justification for his team to keep him around for a fourth season to see if his growth could continue.
In some ways the Giants might be lucky that this isn’t the case. Jones is fine and will probably hang around the league as a backup and occasional starter for the next decade, but I still don’t want to plan the future of my franchise around some theoretical continued gradual growth. Maybe he’s done enough to earn himself one more year as the starter while the Giants add some new talent, but I’d mostly see that as a gap year. This team needs rebuilt almost from the ground up. Tossing out GM David Gettleman is the first step, but moving on from a core built around Jones and Saquon Barkley isn’t far behind.
Washington Football Team (3-6)
A year ago Washington made the playoffs thanks to a historically weak division and a defense that emerged as an elite unit over the second half of the season. The return of Dak Prescott in Dallas has unsurprisingly taken away that first piece, but they at least had high hopes for the continued effectiveness of their defense, only to have it be hit by regression hard in 2021. Now with Chase Young done for the season with a torn ACL, any hopes of a second half run are as good as dead.
Trying to build a team around defense is always a perilous project. Defensive production swings wildly from year to year and even occasionally from game to game, which makes it hard to evaluate and hard to sustain. Washington still has tons of talent on their defensive line, but opposing offenses have figured out ways to hold them in check to exploit the holes in their secondary. When a defense struggles like this, they need something on offense to lean on, which Washington simply doesn’t have.
Seattle Seahawks (3-6)
Seattle can write this miserable first half of the season off as a result of the injury to Russell Wilson, but there were a lot of problems with this team even before that. This outcome is just a result of the same downward trajectory they’ve been following for the past five years, now come to full fruition. Their offense is stale and unimaginative. Every attempt they’ve made to add talent to their defense in recent years has been a failure. It shouldn’t be surprising that they are now a bad team that even a Hall of Fame quarterback can’t keep afloat.
So where do they go from here? They’ve shown remarkable loyalty to Pete Carroll, but even that has to have its limits, doesn’t it? This past offseason heard the first rumbling of Wilson trade demands, and it will only get louder as another year is wasted with no sign of forward progress. The Seahawks don’t have a first round draft pick next year, which makes it very hard for them to improve their team. Trading Wilson should be unthinkable. But what alternative is there?
Embarrassment to the Sport
Games involving these teams should have a parental warning if broadcast on television.
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7)
The Jaguars should be in the section with the Bears, Broncos, and Falcons. They have Trevor Lawrence, the quarterback who was promised, as surefire a prospect as has entered the league in the past decade. Sure they still didn’t come into the season with playoff expectations. But they thought they’d at least show something to build on for the future.
That has not been the case. Urban Meyer has been a disaster as a head coach, and he should honestly be thankful that his controversies off the field have distracted from how terrible he has been on it. Somehow, despite everything lining up in their favor, they are turning Lawrence into a boring, lifeless quarterback. He still makes a couple throws each game that flash his potential, and his numbers would look a lot better if his receivers could catch. I would still bet on him emerging as a top tier quarterback in the long term. But so far his debut season has been the worst disaster Jaguars fans could have imagined.
Miami Dolphins (3-7)
A surprising and fun win over Baltimore doesn’t change the simple reality that the Dolphins are a mess. A couple years ago they seemed to have an incredibly bright future, with a blank slate of a roster and a load of draft capital. Of course, that formula only works if you hit on those draft picks, and so far that hasn’t worked out. Austin Jackson has been part of an offensive line that has been their biggest weakness, and Noah Igbinoghene can barely make it onto the field.
But the biggest concern is with the player selected with their first pick in 2020. Tua Tagovailoa hasn’t been a disaster, but he hasn’t convinced anyone he should be the Dolphins quarterback of the future. The hip injury he suffered to end his time in college seems to have sapped whatever athletic ability he had, and now he’s stuck as a pocket passer without tremendous physical tools behind a line that can’t protect him. The only thing Tagovailoa has going for him is that the Dolphins have already traded away their first round pick for next year, which leaves the team itself with little hope but at least means they won’t have a good chance to move on to a new quarterback this offseason.
New York Jets (2-7)
A new head coach and a new quarterback, and the Jets look pretty much exactly the same as they did a year ago. Apart from the second half against Tennessee, Zach Wilson looked mediocre through the action he’s seen so far, and it didn’t help his case that both options they brought in after his injury him produced far better than he did in any of his starts. And just when it seemed like things might be looking up for them with the performance of Mike White, he went out and threw four interceptions against Buffalo.
As frustrating as the lack of development from this offense has been, it hasn’t been their biggest issue. Their defense has given up at least 45 points in three of their past four games. On the one hand, most of their big additions happened to try to surround Wilson on the offensive side of the ball. On the other hand, they had to hope the return of CJ Mosley and the hiring of Robert Saleh would have some positive impact. But this defense has only gotten worse, and there’s no reason to expect it to improve until they decide to invest real assets in it.
Detroit Lions (0-8-1)
The best thing you can say about the Lions is that they were supposed to be this bad. The teams above them in this category actually had some hope to start the season, which makes it much harder to bear that they turned out to be total catastrophes. The Lions were a total catastrophe from the start, which means their season so far has been a series of moral victories.
Maybe it would have been nice to see a little something from Jared Goff, but honestly it might be easier this way. It’s become very clear that he is not going to be a long-term answer in Detroit, and they can comfortably move on to search for a real quarterback without trying to delude themselves into believing there is something there (though his contract means he will still be with the team for at least 2022). Apart from that, Dan Campbell has at least been fun in his first year as a head coach. Whether or not he’s actually good is still an open question halfway through his first year, which marks a clear improvement over Matt Patricia.
Houston Texans (1-8)
We expected Houston to be one of the biggest embarrassments in recent history, and they shocked everyone by going out and beating Jacksonville on opening Sunday. It was baffling for a little bit, but fortunately things have righted themselves since then. The Texans are every bit as terrible as we expected, though it certainly hasn’t helped that they’ve been without Tyrod Taylor for a big chunk of the season.
I’m just really not sure what to look for as a positive with this team. Davis Mills has looked every bit as outmatched as you’d expect from a third-round rookie. They traded away their only running back with more than 150 yards on the ground, and their only receiver only 200 yards could be a cap casualty after this season. I guess Jonathan Greenard looks interesting with seven sacks so far in his second season. Apart from that the only real positive for Houston is that they still have one more game against the Jaguars this year.
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