The Rebuilding Carousel

We’re nearing the end of another NFL regular season. For some teams this means getting ready for a playoff run. For others this means looking back on 2020, trying to figure out what went wrong, and then cobbling together a plan to cover up these issues in 2021. And, for a large number of teams, this could mean blowing things up and starting from scratch.

There are a lot of different philosophies for building an NFL team, but it wouldn’t be a dramatic oversimplification to say that it often comes down to the head coach and the quarterback. If you nail those two positions, you can be set for the next decade. If you screw them up, it often doesn’t matter what you do with the rest of the roster. You can load a team full of All Pro talent, but without a quality coach and quarterback you’re likely looking at just a brief playoff appearance.

This offseason feels like a particularly interesting one. First of all, this looks like a strong quarterback class in the draft, with potentially as many as six first round picks on the board. And second, there are some very interesting coaching vacancies that are bound to open up that will be extra attractive for top coaching candidates.

That last part is an interesting dynamic. It’s unclear how much control coaching candidates have over where they land, and how much is just a very limited selection of teams picking from a saturated market. But if a coaching candidate does have the flexibility to pass up lesser quality jobs, this year could be rough for several of those lower tier teams. Opportunities like the Texans, Jaguars, Chargers, and Jets are rare opportunities for a coach to sign on to teams with clear quarterback plans and either established talent in place or plenty of flexibility to build out their rosters.

This leaves a difficult puzzle for some of the teams potentially looking to make changes this offseason. On the one hand, this year may be as good as they can get for replacing their quarterback. On the other hand, it could be the worst year for trying to find a new coach. When you make these decisions, you need them to be in sync, otherwise you risk ending up like Washington, where Dwayne Haskins was ignored one year by a lame duck coach trying to win to keep his job and then shunted aside the next year by a coach with no investment in him.

Below I’ve gone through each team in position to change coaches this offseason. Some are set at quarterback. Others have open questions at that position. And others will almost certainly be searching this offseason. The decisions they make this offseason will shape the courses of these teams, and the entire league, for years to come.

 

Tier 1: On the Market

Three teams have already fired their head coach. One of the three is one of the attractive jobs I listed above, with a franchise quarterback locked down for years to come. The other two are in a very different position, and they will have tough choices to make this offseason.

Houston Texans

The Texans are in an odd position. On the one hand, they have the best quarterback situation of any team with a coach opening. The top candidates have to be salivating at the prospect of partnering with Deshaun Watson. On the other hand, their organization looks like it may be toxic from the top-down, and they will be without first or second round draft selections this year. I’m not really sure what the path forward is for trying to build a Super Bowl caliber supporting cast here. But with Watson locked up long-term, I think a quality coach should be able to make them competitive again in a couple of years.

Detroit Lions and Altanta Falcons

I’m lumping these two together because they’re basically in the same situation. Atlanta has a bit more talent overall to work with, but that talent hasn’t translated to wins for several years now. And both are stuck with aging quarterbacks on long-term contracts who have been trending down for a couple years. Matt Ryan is more concerning than Matthew Stafford, as he is three years older and has looked more lost in recent performances.

Both of these teams could go for a quarterback this year, but I’m not sure if that’s the best approach. The Lions might be able to trade Stafford for something this offseason, but the Falcons are likely stuck with Ryan for at least another year. And where they will wind up in the draft, they will likely have to settle for one of the lower-tier first round quarterbacks like Kyle Trask or Mac Jones. If they fall in love with one of these players, then it might be worth taking a shot. But they may be in a position where they should wait a year and try to bottom out in the hope of getting a top selection, like the Bengals did in their first year under Zac Taylor.

 

Tier 2: As Good as Open

These teams haven’t fired their coaches yet. But it would be a shock if they retained their current options. For the most part they’re set up well going forward, and should have no qualms about making the change.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville is quietly in a pretty good position right now. With two more losses they will claim the prize in the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes, giving them as sure a thing as you will get drafting a quarterback. This offense has the pieces of a solid line, a pair of talented young receivers in DJ Chark and Laviska Shenault, and plenty of draft capital and cap space to work with. I have some concerns about the overall organization, but the Jaguars still have the potential to take a major leap forward next year, and possibly push for the playoffs as early as 2022

New York Jets

The Jets are in the middle of one of the worst seasons in NFL history, but that likely won’t be enough to scare off potential coaches. They have a pair of impressive rookies on the offensive side in Mekhi Becton and Denzel Mims, and they have an emerging star on defense in Quinnen Williams. They have two first round picks this year, and while it has to hurt to miss out on Trevor Lawrence, they are still in position to get the best of the other quarterbacks in the class, likely Justin Fields. This seems like the perfect situation for Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. After developing Josh Allen, he would be my choice to work with Fields, another special athlete who has some polishing to do to live up to his potential.

Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert has hit some rough patches over the past few weeks, but he still has the look of a long-term solution at quarterback. Whoever signs on for the Chargers will have to be committed to him 100 percent, which likely means a system that plays to his strengths as a down the field passer rather than the quick-hitting scheme he used at Oregon. Sticking in-division with Eric Bienemy would be a good option. The Chargers are much more talented than their record indicates, and with some better coaching and better luck I expect them to be playoff contenders next year.

 

Tier 3: On the Fence

In a normal year it might make sense for these teams to throw their coaches overboard. But this is not a normal year, and they may want to consider holding out in the hopes that they will be in a better position a year from now, even if this means a lost 2021 season.

Chicago Bears and Denver Broncos

These teams are in a tough situation. They have no clear plan at quarterback beyond this year, but they likely won’t be in position to grab one of the top quarterback options. Neither of their coaches have been particularly impressive, but they haven’t exactly been terrible either. That said, I don’t think they’re around for the long haul. Even if they bring these coaches back, these teams will be bad next year, and they will likely make the coaching change then.

There are some tricky calculations involved with this. If they retain their coaches and draft a quarterback, they’re likely heading into 2022 with a new coach saddled with a quarterback he didn’t scout and select. If the quarterback has a strong rookie season like Herbert has, that would make them a more attractive destination for potential coaches. If not, they could wind up in a spinning-their-wheels scenario like Washington is now.

I think the best approach may actually be to totally toss the 2021 season on the scrap heap. Keep the coaches around, but don’t invest heavily in the quarterback position. Hope they do a better job bottoming out next year than they did this year, and see if they can grab someone at the top of the 2022 draft class. I think this makes more sense for Chicago than Denver, since they will have a weaker draft selection this year and have farther to go in terms of building an offense. But for both teams I think the smart approach would be to enter 2022 with a rookie coach and rookie quarterback joined at the hip.

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys have repeatedly said they aren’t going to jettison Mike McCarthy after one season, but it’s hard to know how much faith to put in their word. He certainly hasn’t been good this year, even before the injury to Dak Prescott. That injury has thrown a wrench into a team that was already in a messy situation at quarterback. They seemed reluctant to give a long-term deal to Prescott, even though he had earned it before the injury. Now they have an even tougher puzzle to work out. Should they try to use the injury to get a discount on the long-term contract? Should they franchise him again at an astronomical one-year price? Or should they take advantage of this down year to try to grab someone like Zach Wilson in the draft? I personally don’t think they can let someone proven like Prescott just walk out the door, but it’s hard not to be intrigued by the prospect of someone six years younger and $100 million cheaper.

Philadelphia Eagles

The quarterback situation in Philadelphia is a mess. They can’t get rid of Carson Wentz, and even after a promising first start I’m skeptical that Jalen Hurts will be any sort of answer. They have a ton of money invested in that position, and no real option to make any changes. If I was a coaching candidate with other options, I wouldn’t come anywhere near this mess. There are reports that the Eagles may be parting ways with Doug Pederson, but I think they should let him have another year to try to fix this, rather than going out onto the market in the hopes of finding someone willing to take on the project of revitalizing this toxic waste dump of a situation.

 

Tier 4: Wild Cards

I don’t think any of these teams will fire their coaches. I don’t think any of these teams should fire their coaches. But if things get out of hand, they could find themselves in a very bad position this offseason.

Cincinnati Bengals

I would be shocked if the Bengals fired Zac Taylor after only two seasons, especially since his second year was cut short by Joe Burrow’s injury. At the same time, I’m not sure Taylor has shown anything through his first two years to suggest he’s actually a good coach. I’m not sure he’s shown anything at all.

This is the problem with hiring a new coach too early in the rebuild process, and a reason I think several of the teams listed above should retain their coaches. When the Bengals hired Taylor before the 2019 season, they were a team clearly going nowhere. They weren’t an attractive job, and they ended up grabbing someone with no real qualifications besides two years working with Sean McVay. He entered a team on a downward slope, his first season was basically a total writeoff, and two years into his coaching tenure we still have no idea if he’s actually a good coach. Maybe the Bengals are trending up heading into 2021, but I can’t help but think they would have been better positioned if they had hired a new coach a year ago, when they had the top draft selection locked up and a clearer slate for potential coaches to work with.

Minnesota Vikings

There was a lot of talk early in the year about the Vikings potentially making a coaching change this offseason. A streak of wins that got them back into contention has mostly quieted that, even if they are unlikely to actually make the postseason. I don’t think they will change coach or quarterback, and I don’t think they should. Kirk Cousins has performed better as the season has gone along, and Mike Zimmer, for his flaws, is still an above average coach. I don’t think this combination will be competing for a Super Bowl anytime soon, but with the draft position they’ll be in, I don’t think this team is in position to blow things up either. This will likely mean another frustrating season or two for Vikings fans, but I don’t think there’s any real way around that.