The Next Step

Last weekend we saw the first set of playoff games, which means we saw four teams have their dreams dashed for the season. Making the playoffs is always an accomplishment, but it lends a sour note to the season when the team is sent home only a week after the other twenty teams.

Losing in the Wild Card round is rough, and the only thing worse is doing it year after year. In recent seasons we have seen teams like Cincinnati and Houston run on the treadmill of early season playoff exits, before finally falling off and failing to make the playoffs after never sniffing a championship. Because as great as it is to make the playoffs, the ultimate goal is still the Super Bowl, and anything short of that is considered a disappointment.

Fortunately for the teams eliminated this past weekend, there are examples for them to look at when trying to figure out how to push deeper into the postseason. While teams like Jacksonville, Tennessee, and New Orleans are making their return to the playoffs after long absences, and Atlanta and New England obviously met in the Super Bowl a year ago, the other three teams left alive all suffered recent seasons that ended in the Wild Card round.

Minnesota Vikings

Lesson Learned: Be Patient

Minnesota’s Wild Card loss two years ago was obviously heartbreaking, but even at the time we new there were bright things to come from this team. There have obviously been bumps along the road, but after a down season in 2016 they won 13 games this year and are the current favorites to come out of the NFC.

Things obviously haven’t gone according to plan on the offensive side of the ball. If you had asked two years ago, I don’t think anyone in the world would have predicted that the combo of Case Keenum and Adam Thielen would carry this offense to the playoffs. That’s not even mentioning the two mysterious injuries to their presumed starting quarterbacks, a midseason change of offensive coordinator, and the departure of a former MVP franchise icon.

Minnesota’s offense looks nothing like the one we thought we’d see two years ago, but that is the nature of the NFL sometimes. You have to adapt, and you have to get lucky, and if both those things happen you can become a championship caliber team. But you still need a foundation of talent, and on the defensive side of the ball we have seen just how that talent can develop and elevate a team from good to great.

The offense has seen drastic changes, but the defense has been staggeringly constant over the past two years. Of the eleven players that make up their current starting defense, ten played in the game against Seattle two years ago. Then rookies Danielle Hunter and Trae Waynes have moved into starting roles, while veterans Brian Robison and Terrence Newman are now more situational players. But Ben Gedeon is the only new starter on a unit that has developed exactly as we thought it would.

Over the past two years we have seen Xavier Rhodes become an All Pro cornerback, Linval Joseph and Everson Griffen continue to dominate, and Harrison Smith go from one of the best safeties in the league to the clearcut best. These were all things we could have predicted two years ago, and it’s no surprise that the Vikings are now alive deeper in the playoffs on the strength of a dominant defense.

Team that can learn from them: Los Angeles Rams

Where the Vikings were set up on defense, the Rams are in position to be one of the best offenses in the league for years to come. They were already the most productive offense in the league this season, and they’re only going to get better as Sean McVay gets more time to work Jared Goff and Todd Gurley into his system. Assuming they resign Sammy Watkins, they are set at wide receiver as well, giving them a deep and talented stable of under-25 weapons to attack on every level of the field.

In some ways Minnesota isn’t a perfect model. The Vikings were young at pretty much every position on their defense, while the Rams have to do some work to build their offensive line for the future. The unit took a major step forward with the additions of John Sullivan and Andrew Whitworth, but Sullivan is 32 and Whitworth is 36. There are more questions on this side of the ball than there were for Minnesota, and they have to find a way to answer them.

On the other hand, the Rams have something on defense that the Vikings didn’t have on offense, and that’s one of the ten best players in football. There are a lot of issues to be solved on this defense, but the presence of Aaron Donald can cover a lot of those up. The Rams are an ascending team right now, and even though their first round exit was disappointing, they have to be feeling optimistic about deeper pushes in the future.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Lesson Learned: Fresh Blood Works Wonders

The Steelers have reached at least the Divisional round for the third straight season, and it’s almost hard to remember where they were at three years ago. At that point they were coming off a disappointing loss to their division rivals in Baltimore, the fourth straight year that they had failed to either make the playoffs or advance past the opening round. A lot of fans wanted to blow the team up, to cast the coaches and the stars aside and start with something fresh.

But the Steelers don’t work that way, and they trusted the core they had in place. The star players on the team three years ago were the same they are now, with Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell, and Antonio Brown combining to make an elite offense while Cameron Heyward holds down the fort on defense. Mike Tomlin is still the head coach, and the organizational philosophy is exactly what it was in 2014.

The differences have come at the margins of the roster. One major change occurred with the coaching staff, as they let long time defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau go and promoted Keith Butler to take his place. The scheme hasn’t changed much, but there has been an increased focus on speed and versatility, which is reflected in the players they have selected in the past few drafts.

The stars on Pittsburgh have been around for a while, but on the whole this is a very young team. Almost half of their defensive starters weren’t even in the league at the time of that Wild Card loss, and they found a gem of a number two wide receiver this past year in JuJu Smith-Schuster. The Steelers haven’t selected in the top ten since 2000, but they’ve continued to find young talent to fill out the margins of their roster to support their stars as they push deeper into the postseason.

Team that can learn from them: Carolina Panthers

Carolina bounced back after a disappointing 2016, but they ultimately came up far short of repeating their deep playoff run of two years ago. And with a couple seasons now between them and their Super Bowl defeat, they have to start asking what the long term plan is. Cam Newton is always a figure of controversy, and he hasn’t come close to repeating his MVP performance, which leaves the entire team on slightly tenuous footing going forward.

Ron Rivera has been given a contract extension through 2020, but with the pending sale of the franchise stability is hardly assured. The Panthers probably won’t make major changes this offseason, but they are nearing a tipping point where they have to figure out what they want their franchise to look like.

This team needs to make changes, but they don’t need to be anywhere near as drastic as some people are proposing. Newton and Luke Keuchly are still the stars of this franchise, and they should both remain in silver and blue for at least the next five years. Rivera has also done enough to justify sticking around long term, and there are several more pieces (Kawann Short, Andrew Norwell) who could form the core of a top notch football team.

Like the Steelers, the changes the Panthers need to make are at the margins. Heading into next season the Panthers have nearly $30 million tied up in Greg Olsen, Thomas Davis, and Ryan Kalil, three very good players who are all 32 years or older. All three are free agents following the 2018 season, and all three could save the team at least $5 million if they are cut this year.

This team is attached to their franchise icons, which is a major part of why they let GM Dave Gettleman go last summer and brought back former GM Marty Hurney who they believed was more likely to extend these fading stars. Ideally the change in ownership would scuttle that plan, but it remains to be seen how they handle these transitions.

I can’t say I’m optimistic about Carolina’s ability to bring in the fresh blood they need. They haven’t drafted well in recent years, and their big move so far this offseason was to fire their offensive coordinator (good move) and replace him with Norv Turner (not so good a move). Carolina has the foundation in place, but there is a lot more work to do after that, and I wouldn’t bet on them being able to pull it off.

Philadelphia Eagles

Lesson Learned: Blow It Up

Chip Kelly’s first two years with the Eagles saw him go 10-6 twice, the first year making the playoffs on the back of a stellar performance from Nick Foles. Foles led the NFL in passer rating that year, throwing an absurd 27 touchdowns to only 2 interceptions. He fell off some the following year, but the Eagles still won ten games and nearly made the playoffs. And that was when Kelly decided to tear it down.

The Eagles have come a very long way from the team that lost to the Saints in the first round four years ago. Of their current starters only seven were on that roster, and Vinny Curry and Brandon Graham—two of the stars of the current defense—were merely rotational players. Ironically one of their few returning pieces is Foles, albeit as a fill in starter with trips to the Rams and the Chiefs in the middle.

Kelly obviously didn’t survive his attempt to rebuild this team, but the effects have certainly rippled through to their performance today. They cast aside the mediocre Foles to trade for Sam Bradford, who they later swapped to recoup the first round pick they had given up to grab Carson Wentz. They cleared away big expenditures on their salary cap, allowing them to add free agents like Alshon Jeffery, LeGarrette Blount, and Torrey Smith.

There were a few down years in the middle, but it certainly paid off in the end. Was it not for the injury to Wentz, the Eagles would likely be the favorites in the NFC right now. And with the base they’ve been able to build, they’re in position to contend for the next several years, and to push deeper in the playoffs than they ever would have been able to with the combination of Kelly and Foles controlling the roster.

Team that can learn from them: Kansas City Chiefs

This is a tough one. Early in the season the Chiefs looked like one of the best teams in the NFL. They were the last undefeated team, they boasted wins over the eventual top seeds in both conferences, and Alex Smith was receiving MVP buzz. At the end of the year they came on strong, and they blew out the Titans in the first half of their playoff game.

Then the second half happened, and now the Chiefs are facing a major franchise crossroads. Of course, that was always the plan coming into the season, ever since they traded a pair of first round picks to move up and grab Pat Mahomes in the top ten last spring. The writing was on the wall for Smith, and he responded by going out and having the best season of his career, complicating Kansas City’s plans for the future.

In the end though, moving on from Smith is the decision they have to make. He was better than anyone expected this year, but he’s going to be 34 when next season starts, and as strong as his 2017 season was, it still wasn’t good enough to win the Chiefs a playoff game.

That’s what this ultimately comes down to. I’ve been very critical of hyper-conservative quarterbacks like Smith before, questioning whether they could ever win a championship. The events of the past couple years have softened me on this stance some, and I now think with the right surrounding cast it’s possible for a quarterback with Smith’s limitations to go on a deep postseason run. That could very well be Smith himself next year, with a team like Jacksonville or Arizona. But to put it simply, the supporting cast in Kansas City is not nearly good enough to carry Smith farther than he can take them himself.

The Chiefs haven’t changed their roster much over the past few years, and it’s lulled us into believing the strengths of the team haven’t changed either. Most people still see Kansas City as a dominant defense that can draw out games with a potent rushing attack and win in low scoring contests. But the defense is nothing close to what it was three years ago, and the running game led by Kareem Hunt was more boom-or-bust than the reliable machine led by Jamaal Charles.

The Chiefs need to make a change at quarterback, but that’s not the only change they have to make. There are a few decent pieces already in place (Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Mitchell Schwartz, Marcus Peters), but large chunks of this roster need torn down. Derrick Johnson, Tamba Hali, and Darrelle Revis are costing them a combined $25 million next year. They have to go. Eric Berry and Justin Houston are still excellent when they’re on the field, but that’s been a rare sight these past couple years.

There is a lot of work that needs to be done here, and it probably isn’t a one season turnaround project. If the Chiefs play things right, they might be able to make a run at the top of the AFC in two to three seasons, once the Roethlisbergers and Bradys and Rivers of the world are no longer in their path.

I Don’t Know: Buffalo Bills

Three teams alive in the postseason have suffered recent Wild Card losses, and three teams that went down this year have reasonable paths laid out in front of them. The Bills are the lone exception, a team for which I genuinely cannot picture the next step.

The Bills were a playoff team this year, but that doesn’t mean they were a good team. Their failure to even score a touchdown in the playoffs confirms that. But of course, they never had any intention of being a good team. The Bills came into the 2017 season with the intention of tanking, until the sheer ineptitude of the AFC field forced them into the playoffs and threw a wrench into all their future plans.

The unfortunate thing about failing to tank is that you tore your team down for nothing. The Bills went all in on being as bad as possible with the hope of landing a top ten pick that could reshape their franchise, and instead they got stuck with selection number 21 (they’re also getting number 22 from Kansas City).

If they still had stars like Sammy Watkins and Ronald Darby, they might have had a chance to fill in the gaps of their roster next year and make a run. But instead they’re stuck in no man’s land, too good to improve their team and too bad to do anything worthwhile. They’ve alienated Tyrod Taylor enough that I can’t see them bringing him back, and I can’t actually imagine them heading into next year with Nathan Peterman as their starter.

The Bills have a few options, none of them good. They can try to build off of this year, spending big money to bring in someone like Kirk Cousins in the hope they can snag a playoff berth again next year. But this roster is bare enough that no one short of a generational quarterback will get them to a championship level. They could try to bottom out again next year, but they’ve already proven how difficult that can be, and the fans will be more restless after a taste of the postseason. Their last option is to swing for the fences, to give up a slew of draft picks to try to leap and grab one of the quarterback prospects they missed out on when they screwed up and won a bunch of games.

The Bills made the playoffs, and that was certainly a wonderful thing for the fans that had gone 18 years without seeing an appearance. But they weren’t, and still aren’t, a playoff caliber team, and they’ve left themselves with little reason to be hopeful for the future. Simply repeating this year’s first round exit will be difficult enough, and I can’t see a realistic path towards a championship at any point in the next five years.