2017 AFC East Preview

A week ago I published my preview for the NFC West, which I described as probably the easiest division to predict in the NFL. Well the AFC East is the one division that could give it a run for its money. The Patriots are going to win, like they always do. The Jets are going to finish last, and now that Buffalo has officially given up on the season, we can probably pencil the Dolphins in at number two. There’s not a lot of interest to say here, but you should still read this whole thing anyway.

New England Patriots

Best Case:

They are the defending Super Bowl champions, and their best case scenario is that they can become the first team to repeat since they themselves did it in 2004. They are bringing back pretty much every important player from their team last year, and they added useful veterans like Brandin Cooks and Stephon Gilmore. They will have Rob Gronkowski and Dion Lewis back at 100% to start the season, and if they can keep everyone healthier than last year they could be an even better team this time around (The loss of Julian Edelman to a torn ACL is definitely a blow, but they have enough talent to weather this).

The AFC is incredibly thin at the top. The only team realistically on New England’s level is Pittsburgh, and the Steelers have always struggled to find a way to match up wit hthe Patriots. Right now it is very reasonable to debate that you would take the Patriots over the rest of the field to represent the AFC in the Super Bown and with that easy path ahead of them they are the clear favorites in the entire league to win the whole thing again.

Worst Case:

Bill Belichick is a genius, possibly the greatest coach of all time. He regularly gets the most out of a patchwork collection of talent, and it’s hard to imagine any Patriots team with him at the helm finishing with fewer than ten wins. He has succeeded with bad defenses, with bad offensive lines, with bad receiving corps, with no running game to speak of. But the one thing he has never had to deal with is a quarterback he couldn’t trust to execute his plan on every level.

The fate of the Patriots rests on Tom Brady, as it does every year. And that seems like a good thing until you remember that Brady is 40 years old, and that he didn’t play particularly well down the stretch a year ago. We are only a couple seasons removed from watching Peyton Manning fall to pieces, and after a season in which Brady benefited from playing only 12 regular season games, it’s reasonable to wonder whether his arm can make it through a full season. There’s no reason to believe the Patriots won’t be in position to repeat this year, but not since 2008 have we seen them have to face life without Brady at the helm, a possibility that may be far closer than people think.

Player to Watch: Mike Gillislee, RB

Gillislee was quietly one of the most efficient running backs in the league a year ago. He averaged 5.7 yards per carry on 101 attempts, adding eight touchdowns as a red zone threat for the best rushing attack in the league. And yet the Patriots managed to acquire him as a restricted free agent at the cost of only a fifth round pick, the sort of move that seems to work out for New England far more often than it should.

A year ago LeGarrette Blount led the league in rushing touchdowns by capitalizing on New England’s patient offense once it wormed its way into the red zone. With Blount now in Philadelphia, Gillislee is the favorite to take that role, and his versatility as a heart of the field runner could provide a significant step up in the running game. He’s dealing with some injuries, and the running back position is always a volatile slot in New England, but right now he has as good a chance as anyone to be the next case of an unheralded player making major contributions to New England’s offense.

Miami Dolphins

Best Case:

It’s always hard to be optimistic when a team loses its quarterback before the season, but as far as fallback plans go the Dolphins at least found one with some upside. Jay Cutler has shown flashes of extremely high level play throughout his career, and the offense he finds himself a part of now has more talent than any other team he has ever played with. Jay Ajayi offers big play potential at running back. Jarvis Landry tears defenses apart underneath while Kenny Stills stretches them over the top. And while Devante Parker has been up and down over his first two seasons, he still has more talent than anyone else on this offense.

Miami isn’t good enough to compete with New England, but they have the ability to make another run at a wild card spot. Their defense still gives me concerns, but their offense has enough explosive potential to keep them in any game. It all depends on Cutler obviously, and I may be alone in still having faith in him. But if he plays up to his abilities, this team is good enough to win nine or ten games.

Worst Case:

Cutler didn’t play most of last season, and when he did he was pretty terrible. The situation in Chicago was obviously far worse than in Miami, but it’s fair to ask how much he really has left in the tank. If Cutler isn’t performing at a high level, this offense will fall apart, and without the offense running at full capacity the Dolphins can’t compete with the other top teams in the AFC.

Miami made the playoffs a year ago, but all the common signs pointed towards regression even before Ryan Tannehill’s injury. They survived by winning a lot of close games, and once they reached the playoffs they made a quick and unceremonious exit. This team was full of questionmarks even before they were forced to turn to a 34 year old quarterback off the streets, and they’ll need everything to break right once again to make the playoffs for the second year in a row.

Player to Watch: Xavien Howard, CB

Miami’s defense is bad. They have a couple of big names on their defensive line, but beyond Ndamukong Suh and Cameron Wake there isn’t much to like. Their linebackers are slow and incapable of covering running backs and tight ends. Their safeties would rather hit people than prevent big plays. And Byron Maxwell has never found the same success he had in Seattle, leaving them with a clear vulnerability on one side of the field.

On the other side of the field however, they are actually in decent shape. Howard isn’t a shutdown cornerback by any means, but he is solid and reliable in coverage, and at only 24 years old he has the potential to be even better. There isn’t enough talent on this defense for them to actually be good, but simply minimizing big plays might be enough to give their offense some hope.

Buffalo Bills

Best Case:

It’s hard to com up with a “best case scenario” for a team that is actively trying to lose. In reality the best case for Buffalo would be to lose all their games, get a high draft pick, and start from scratch next year with whoever they think is the best quarterback available. But if we’re talking about how this team can perform the best, we should start with the defense. Buffalo’s defense was a strength a few years ago, before Rex Ryan came in and tore down everything they did well to put in his own scheme. Switching from the blitz heavy 3-4 approach back to their normal 4-3 will help this unit bounce back, and it will keep them in games while they figure things out on offense.

The decision to trade away Sammy Watkins was idiotic, but  it doesn’t greatly affect what Buffalo does best. They still have a solid offensive line and a pair of dynamic players in the backfield. Tyrod Taylor and LeSean McCoy gave Buffalo the best rushing attack in the league a year ago, and they’re in position to repeat that performance. The decision to trade away two of their best players definitely limits their ceiling, but if everyone plays up to their ability I could still see the Bills winning five or six games.

Worst Case:

The pair of trades to acquire additional draft picks was a clear announcement that the Bills are throwing away this season, and the players can see that as well as anyone. With the front office and the coaching staff no longer trying, there is little reason for the players to try either, and a rough start to the year could spiral into a catastrophe (one that sets them up for success down the road, so this is really what the staff is hoping for).

The Bills are clearly not committed to Taylor at quarterback, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they benched him at some point to give Nathan Peterman a look. This will undoubtedly go poorly for them, as they try to build a passing game around a rookie quarterback and a receiving corps with no proven options. Their secondary will be a mess without their top two cornerbacks from last year, and even an improved pass rush won’t save them from being blown out repeatedly by every passing attack they face.

Player to Watch: Jerry Hughes, DE

In a lot of ways Hughes has had a very unlucky career. A first round pick by the Colts in 2010, he never really had a chance in Indianapolis. Despite being most suited to play defensive end in a 4-3 defense, he was forced to line up as an outside linebacker in a 3-4, playing in space in a way that didn’t suit his athletic skills. After three years with the Colts he was considered a bust, and they shipped him off to Buffalo. He responded by transitioning back to defensive end and putting up double digit sacks in each of his first two seasons, looking every bit like the elite pass rusher he was expected to be.

No player was hurt more by the switch to Ryan’s 3-4 than Hughes. Forced to play linebacker again, he managed only 5 sacks in 2015 and 6 a year ago. But now that Ryan is gone he is moving back to his natural position, and he will have the opportunity to get after the passer once again. If Buffalo’s defense is going to bounce back, Hughes will be a major part of it, taking pressure off their inexperienced secondary and giving their offense some hope of keeping up.

New York Jets

Best Case:

Pass.

Worst Case:

This is the worst roster I have ever seen assembled in the NFL. The Browns last year were atrocious, but they at least had some redeeming pieces. They had Joe Thomas and Terrelle Pryor and Isaiah Crowell. They had a bunch of rookies in position to contribute. They had the potential to at least be fun even if they were bad.

There is nothing redeeming about this Jets roster. They have three good players, and they all play the same position. Leonard Williams is one of the best young defenders in the NFL, and he’ll at least be exciting to watch this year. But Sheldon Richardson and Muhammad Wilkerson have both had a foot out the door for several years now, and I wouldn’t be stunned to see one or both of them traded at some point. If absolutely everything goes right, I could see this team winning two games. But even that seems wildly optimistic.

Player to Watch: Morris Claiborne, CB

To give a sense of just how wretched the Jets are: my original plan for this spot was to discuss wide receiver Quincy Enunwa, the lone potential bright spot on their offense. Unfortunately, Enunwa tore his ACL in training camp, so I’m left to highlight a former top ten pick they signed to a cheap free agent contract.

Claiborne was terrible his first three years in Dallas, but during the early part of last season he appeared to be pulling it together. He had five passes defensed and an interception through the first seven games, before a groin injury lingered and cost him the rest of the season. He’s now on a one year contract with a chance to prove his worth, ideally bringing some measure of competence to a team sorely lacking in anything remotely positive.

(Literally within a week of me writing this news came out that Claiborne is dealing with a shoulder injury. Don't watch the Jets. Whatever you do, do not watch the Jets.)