The Playoff Push

We have three weeks to go in the NFL season, which means it’s time to dig deep into the playoff race (actually it’s probably past time, but other stuff came up the past couple weeks). At this moment Dallas is the only team that has clinched a playoff berth, but six have already been eliminated. So if you’re a fan of the Jets, Rams, Jaguars, Bears, 49ers, or Browns, you might want to stop reading right here.

For the other 25 teams, the next three weeks will decide the outcome of the season they’ve fought so hard for. Some races are all but locked up, while others could come down to the final play. We’ll take a look at these races one by one, first the divisions and then both conferences’ wild card contests.

Note, I will be making reference to tiebreaker rules throughout. If you’re weird and haven’t memorized the NFL’s various tiebreaker rules like I have, you can find them here.

AFC East

New England Patriots (11-2)

Miami Dolphins (8-5)

New England is going to win the AFC East. Man, I hope they’re all this easy.

AFC South

Houston Texans (7-6)

Tennessee Titans (7-6)

Indianapolis Colts (6-7)

Damn it. The AFC South is a mess this year, as it is every year, as you’d expect from a division with zero quality teams. Tennessee has shown surprising fight, but they’re still a very young team with an incompetent coach and a defense that can’t stop a basic passing attack. Indianapolis has nothing but a quarterback. And Houston is just a bad football team, even though they have the inside track on the division.

First the easy part. Indianapolis is probably not going to win the division. They’re a game behind the other two teams, and they’ll lose a tiebreaker if they end up tied with just the Texans or in a three way tie. They also still have both Minnesota and Oakland on their schedule, and it will be difficult for this team to go on any sort of winning streak.

If it comes down to the Titans and the Texans, Houston will have the advantage. They won the matchup earlier this season, and they’ll have the tiebreaker even if Tennessee beats them in Week 17. On the surface this looks like it could come down to a winner-take-all situation in the final week, but it could very easily be over before then, if Houston takes care of business against Jacksonville and Cincinnati and Tennessee falls to Kansas City. But like I said above, Houston is just an overall crummy football team, so it’s easy to imagine them choking away this opportunity.

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs (10-3)

Oakland Raiders (10-3)

Denver Broncos (8-5)

The defending Super Bowl champions are still alive, and it isn’t impossible to see them getting back into this. They still have games against both the teams ahead of them, but they still have a tall hill to climb, not helped by the tiebreaker situation. They might be able to win a tiebreaker with Oakland (it could go all the way to strength of victory, which I do not feel like working out myself). They can’t possibly beat Kansas City, which means the Chiefs will have to lose to both Tennessee and San Diego as well. And all this also depends on Denver beating New England on Sunday. So yeah, Denver should probably just focus on the wild card.

It’s also pretty straightforward at the top. Kansas City will win any tiebreaker, so Oakland has to win more games than their rival over the final three weeks. Both teams play Denver, San Diego, and one of the garbage kings of the AFC South (Titans for Kansas City, Colts for Oakland). Strength of schedule doesn’t favor either team, so it will come down to who performs best against similar foes, with Kansas City having the advantage with three weeks to go.

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5)

Baltimore Ravens (7-6)

Cincinnati Bengals (5-7-1)

Cincinnati is still technically alive, but for sanity’s sake I’m not going to bother working through playoff scenarios involving teams two games below 500. So let’s focus on Pittsburgh and Baltimore.

Pittsburgh has a better record, an easier schedule, and is a better team. Baltimore has the tiebreaker, thanks to knocking off the Steelers earlier in the year. This gives them hope, and it means the division will likely come down to the matchup of these two teams on Christmas day.

With a fully healthy Roethlisberger and a defense that’s picked up steam as young players have slid into the starting lineup, I still give Pittsburgh the advantage to bounce back from their mid-season defeat. But the Steelers are as unpredictable as they come, and Baltimore has fought well in every game this season, and I could see the Ravens clawing this one out in the end.

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys (11-2)

New York Giants (9-4)

New York’s victory over Dallas this past weekend certainly threw a wrinkle into the NFC East, but it probably won’t change much in the long run. Even though they now have the tiebreaker over the Cowboys, it would still take a minor miracle for the Giants to pull this out.

They’re two games back, with roughly similar schedules down the stretch. And as good as New York looked this past Sunday, they looked just as bad two weeks ago against Pittsburgh. They would probably need to sweep their contests against the Lions, Eagles, and Redskins, and even then they would need the Cowboys to lose two of their remaining three (against the Buccaneers, Lions, and Eagles, so not exactly impossible). This division is not over by any means, but in all likelihood Dallas should turn its focus to home field advantage while the Giants try to fight their way in as a wild card.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons (8-5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-5)

This one is as close as they come. Both teams have the same record, and they split their matchups earlier in the season. Both teams are 3-1 in the division, though with two in division games remaining this could swing either way. So far against “common opponents” the Falcons are 7-4 while the Buccaneers are 7-5, so it’s hard to say how that one will break down in the end.

There is so much that can happen over the final three weeks in this division, but if I had to give the edge to one particular team, I would have to go with the Falcons for one simple reason: schedule. Both teams will face off against New Orleans and Carolina over the final two weeks, but it is this coming Sunday where things will really be decided. This weekend, when the Falcons face San Francisco and the Buccaneers face Dallas.

Sorry, Tampa.

NFC West

Seattle Seahawks (8-4-1)

Arizona Cardinals (5-7-1)

This one is nearly as over as the AFC East. Seattle has a three game lead with three to play, meaning they would have to lose out and see the Cardinals win out to let this one get away. And since the teams remaining on their schedule (including the Cardinals team chasing them) are a combined 10-28-1, I have to imagine even a struggling Seahawks team can pick up at least one victory.

NFC North

Detroit Lions (9-4)

Green Bay Packers (7-6)

Minnesota Vikings (7-6)

We’ve been waiting all year for the other shoe to drop with the Lions, and we might just be waiting forever. They aren’t a very good football team, and their record is more a fluke than anything else. But Matthew Stafford is playing at an MVP level, and they have a two game lead with three remaining, so it’s hard to bet against them pulling the division out in the end.

The other two teams in the division are strangely mirror images of each other. Both got off to fast starts thanks to high powered units on one side of the ball (Minnesota’s defense and Green Bay’s offense) supporting middling talent on the other. Both fell off sharply in the middle of the season as their best units regressed to merely above average while injuries crippled the other side. And while both Green Bay’s offense and Minnesota’s defense have returned to elite levels over the past couple weeks, their fortunes are headed in very different directions.

The subtle difference is health. Injuries tore down Green Bay’s defense and Minnesota’s offense, and right now only one of the two is getting better. The Packers still aren’t going to be shutting anyone down, but as their unit comes together they will at least manage something bordering on competence. Minnesota’s offense has no such hope. Adrian Peterson may be coming back, but there still won’t be any holes open for him, and they still don’t have a quarterback capable of making plays on his own. Green Bay is trending up while Minnesota is heading down, and the fortunes of the division will likely reflect that.

There is a scenario in which Green Bay wins the NFC North. I don’t think we can say the same about Minnesota. The differences in the current performances of the teams, along with the tiebreaker edge the Lions have over the Vikings, means that Minnesota should probably turn whatever hopes they have towards a wild card spot. Because I mean, it’s not like they can tank for a draft pick.

(I still despise the Bradford trade, in case you didn’t realize.)

AFC Wild Card

Oakland Raiders (10-3)

Denver Broncos (8-5)

Miami Dolphins (8-5)

Baltimore Ravens (7-6)

Tennessee Titans (7-6)

Indianapolis Colts (6-7)

Buffalo Bills (6-7)

Cincinnati Bengals (5-7-1)

San Diego Chargers (5-8)

Here’s where it gets fun. As I mentioned above, I’m not going to bother with teams two games below 500, so good job and good effort to Cincinnati and San Diego, but I’ll see you next year.

That leaves us with seven teams fighting for two spots. First, the easy part. Oakland is going to make it. While the odds on winning the division are against them, I think it’s safe to say they’ll grab one of the two wild card berths. They have a two game lead on the nearest competition, and while they certainly have enough flaws that they could lose their final three games, too much would have to happen among the other teams to knock them out (it would likely require both the Broncos to win twice and the Dolphins to win out). I think it’s safe to count them in.

And what about the rest of this? Denver and Miami have an obvious leg up, but as I mentioned above the Broncos have a difficult schedule, and Miami will be playing without their starting quarterback. That opens the door for teams like Baltimore and Tennessee. Both are focused on their divisions, and both will suffer at least one loss if we assume they end up competing for a wild card spot (if not, substitute Pittsburgh and Houston in their places). This means the teams above them have more breathing room than it looks like, and that Indianapolis and Buffalo still have some prayer.

If I had to pick one team from this list, I’d go with Baltimore. They have a good conference record, and they have a reasonable schedule coming up, with games against Philadelphia and Cincinnati sandwiching their trip to Pittsburgh. They also probably have the best thing going for them of any of these teams, with a defense that is in the conversation for the best in the league. As flawed as they are, I think they’ll sneak into the playoffs as the very last seed.

NFC Wild Card

New York Giants (9-4)

Atlanta Falcons (8-5)*

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-5)*

Washington Redskins (7-5-1)

Green Bay Packers (7-6)

Minnesota Vikings (7-6)

Arizona Cardinals (5-7-1)

New Orleans Saints (5-8)

Carolina Panthers (5-8)

Philadelphia Eagles (5-8)

By the same logic as above, let’s cut this field down the Giants, Falcons, Buccaneers, Redskins, Packers, and Vikings. Arizona and Carolina, you were disappointing. New Orleans, you gave it a fun little run for a while. Philadelphia, I still have no clue what to think of you. Hopefully I’ll figure it out next year.

The Giants look like they’re in good shape, but that’s a bit deceiving. Their schedule isn’t the smoothest in the world, and they’ll be at a tiebreaker disadvantage against pretty much anyone beneath them. This race is fairly jumbled, with the Giants holding a narrow lead over whoever loses out in the NFC South, a Redskins team that they play in the final week, and the two roller coasters in the NFC North.

I addressed those last two in length above, and I don’t have much new to say here. The Packers are playing better right now than the Vikings, and they have a much better chance of winning a playoff spot. They also have better fortune in the tiebreakers, and if an NFC North team is going to make a run, it will likely be Green Bay.

The question is, can they win enough to jump two of the teams ahead of them? The Redskins have a fairly easy path, with the Bears and the Panthers before a final weekend showdown against the Giants. Two Washington wins would leave Green Bay with very little margin for error, as even a single loss would knock them out of it. They won’t win a tiebreaker over either the Falcons or the Buccaneers, which means they would need to win out and have either of those teams lose at least twice. And even then, they would still need the Giants to lose a pair to jump over them.

The odds are long for both Green Bay and Minnesota. I think the road is clear for both teams from the NFC South, and whoever doesn’t claim the division will probably end up getting one of the spots. So it really will come down to the Giants and the Redskins. Two wins by New York will make the final game meaningless, but if they drop against either Detroit or Philadelphia, Washington will have a chance to claim a playoff spot at home. The odds still favor the Giants, but it is a lot closer than it looks.