We are roughly halfway through the season, so now it's time to stop and take a look team by team around the league. As in the past three years (God, is this really the fourth season I've done this?) I'm dividing the league by tier. The top half of the league will come later this week, but for now let's focus on the teams at the bottom.
Things are fairly wide open this season, so I'm not going to say that none of these teams will make the playoffs. But they certainly have a long road to climb, and none of these teams look like they have what it takes to turn things around. I've divided these sixteen into three separate groups, ranging from quality teams that have gotten off to a bad start to the true dregs of the league. And just in case you're curious, I put essentially no thought into how teams are ordered within these tiers.
Disappointing
Every year there are teams we think have a clear road to the
playoffs, only for them to fall flat out of the gate. Halfway through the year
they find themselves on the outside looking in, past a large number of teams
they thought themselves better than. The talent is there for a strong run to
finish the season, but talent might not be enough to get them out of the hole
they’ve dug for themselves.
Washington Redskins (4-3-1)
At first glimpse Washington might not truly belong in this
group. After all, they’ve won more games than they’ve lost, and they’ve showed
more signs of life than some of the other teams below. But they are hurt by
playing in the toughest division in the league, a division they currently sit
in last place of, and by the reality that they have made no progress on the
biggest issue facing them at the beginning of the season.
Winning games is nice, but 2016 for the Redskins was all
about figuring out Kirk Cousins. After slapping the franchise tag on him
following their division title in 2015, this was his year to prove that he is
worth a longer extension. But so far this year has been as up and down as the
rest of his career. He has shown very little to justify keeping him around for
three or four more years, just as he has shown little to excuse the Redskins if
they decide to part ways with him after the season. And with a difficult road to the playoffs, Washington is looking at a year of meaningless stagnation that will only
lead to the same problems in 2017.
Indianapolis Colts (3-5)
Andrew Luck was supposed to make the difference. The Colts
fought hard through 2015, but there was only so much they could do without
their star quarterback. Even so, they were nearly able to steal the division
from the Texans, and the AFC South didn’t look much better coming into this
year. With Luck back, they were the favorites prior to the season.
Luck has been fantastic (if a bit uneven, as we are used
to), but there is only so much that one player can do for a team this bereft of
talent. The coaching is a nightmare, and the front office is somehow worse.
This is a team with a superstar at quarterback, in a division of historic
ineptitude. They should be dominating the league right now, and instead they’re
scrapping through every game, unable to make it to even a .500 record.
Carolina Panthers (2-5)
I’ve been low on the Panthers for a couple years now, but
even I won’t claim I saw this coming. Everything that could have gone wrong for
the defending NFC Champions has gone wrong, and then some. The hole left in
their secondary when they released Josh Norman has proven bigger than expected.
Their young pass rush has failed to materialize. And Cam Newton has regressed
sharply from his remarkable MVP performance.
They are only two games back in a division filled with
flawed teams, but right now the Panthers look like the most flawed of the
bunch. They were never the deepest team in the league, and we spent most of
2015 waiting for the other shoe to drop. Just because they managed to keep
things going through the regular season and into the playoffs doesn’t mean we
were wrong in saying they were outperforming their true capabilities, a truth
we are finally seeing catch up to them this year.
Arizona Cardinals (3-4-1)
On the other hand, I will take a moment to boast about this
one. The Cardinals are struggling this year for exactly the reason I expected
them to. Their success over the past couple years was built on a high flying,
guns blazing attack, the sort that can shred an opposing defense when it’s
clicking and blow up in your face in when it’s not. And this year, everything
has conspired to work against them. Palmer looks older than he did a year ago.
The offensive line has struggled due to roster turnover and injury. And the
wide receivers simply aren’t making the same plays they did a year ago, most
notably Michael Floyd.
There is hope to be found in David Johnson, but the past
couple weeks have shown just how little that hope can mean. A great running
back definitely has value in the NFL, but he isn’t going to be the salvation of
an offense like the Cardinals are hoping. If they can get things clicking down
the field, Johnson can become a lethal complementary piece again. But without
the passing game the Cardinals are likely sunk.
Boring
Truly terrible football teams can occasionally be fun.
Simple mediocrity is almost never interesting. These teams are going nowhere,
and they aren’t even entertaining anyone along the way. I wish I could go the
rest of the year without watching, writing about, or even thinking about these
teams. But instead, I’ll give you almost a thousand words to read on them.
Los Angeles Rams (3-4)
I just want to go on the record saying that I was making 7-9
jokes about Jeff Fisher way before everyone else. We’ve known for years that he
is a mediocre coach, and now on his second franchise in his fourth city, things
are looking pretty much the same as ever. The Rams have some good pieces, like
they always do. They’ll sneak a few wins they shouldn’t, like they always do.
And they’ll finish with between 6 and 8 wins, like they always do.
If there is any hope, it rests on the arm of Jared
Goff. The fact that he hasn’t seen the field yet is a disgrace, but even as
talented as he is there isn't much he can do standing behind this offensive
line and throwing to these wide receivers. The Rams are who we thought they
were, and that’s not a team that’s going to scare anyone down the stretch.
Miami Dolphins (3-4)
Of all the teams on this list, Miami was the one I most
wanted to see one more time before writing this up. Through the first five
games they belonged at the bottom of the league, but after two consecutive
impressive victories there might be reason to hope. Jay Ajayi has fought
through the issues with the coaching staff and emerged as an explosive and
consistent running back, and the added rushing threat could really open
things up for this offense.
The problem is, Ryan Tannehill is still playing quarterback.
And Ryan Tannehill is still not very good. The one thing he did consistently
prior to this year was protect the football, a trend that has reversed as he
now has seven interceptions through seven games. He also isn’t throwing
touchdowns at nearly the same frequency, and while he is targeting the ball
farther down field, it isn’t flowing through to improved efficiency numbers.
The Dolphins are limited, and will always be limited, by their quarterback, and
unless Ajayi can continue to churn out 200 yards a week they are going to hit
this ceiling hard.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4)
Jameis Winston was supposed to take the next step this year,
and after an opening weekend thrashing of the Falcons it looked like he had. He
completed 23 of 32 passes for four touchdowns and one interception, en route to
a 31-24 victory . But things took a sharp turn since, as
he has completed only 57% of his passes and thrown ten touchdowns to eight
interceptions over the past six games.
Injuries in the backfield haven’t helped, but Tampa Bay is
facing the same problems it has for years. A shaky offensive line, and a
defense that has very little going below its stars. Winston is being asked to
do far too much for a second year passer, and the Buccaneers desperately need
some other young talent to step up. Whether that’s Vernon Hargreaves and Noah
Spence on the defense, or Mike Evans on the offense, they need other quality
players to prove themselves. Because until then, they’re just a lesser version
of Indianapolis.
New Orleans Saints (3-4)
It is amazing that a team as dynamic and explosive
offensively as New Orleans can be so boring. Part of this is probably fatigue.
This is the exact same Saints team we’ve seen for the past three years. Drew
Brees is great, and he’s surrounded by a solid group of offensive talent that
makes up in depth what they lack in star talent. They will score points on
anybody, and that should be exciting to watch.
But man, this defense is exhausting. Years of investment and
effort have yielded no notable improvements. They are ranked 28th in DVOA against both the run and the pass, and there is very little reason
to believe they’ll improve as the season goes along. Brees’s ability keeps them
out of the very bottom of the league, but even that can only do so much.
New York Giants (4-3)
Odell Beckham is fun. Besides that, I don’t have much to say
on the Giants. A few overpaid free agents haven’t done anything to change the core
structure of this team, which is one of mediocrity. They have a mediocre
quarterback, a mediocre coaching staff, a mediocre offensive line, and a
mediocre defense from top to bottom.
The Giants have flown under the radar this year due to the
emergence of young talent on division foes in Dallas and Philadelphia, and
unless something drastic happens, they will likely stay there for quite some
time. This team is not built for the future, and it really isn’t built for the
present either. Rookies like Paul Perkins and Sterling Shepard are interesting
I suppose, but when I look at the young talent elsewhere in the division, I
find myself already checking out on the Giants for the next two or three years
as well.
Baltimore Ravens (3-4)
The three game winning to streak to open the season was a
long time ago, wasn’t it? The Ravens were one of the clearest cases for
regression after winning their first three games by a grand total of 13 points.
They’ve come back to Earth since then, losing their next four…by a grand total
of 17 points.
This is actually an excellent summary of the Ravens as a
team. There isn’t anything they do terribly, but there isn’t anything they do
particularly well either. They occasionally make plays down the field in the
passing game, but they don’t have the depth of receivers or running backs to
sustain drives. They’re a middle of the pack defense led by middle of the pack
stars, and while the results won’t be quite as drastic over the second half of
the season, they’ll find their way to the middle of the pack by the end.
Trash
There are some terrible football teams in the league.
Irredeemable, unwatchable, with no hope for the rest of the season and little
for the years to come. They still have to play their final eight or nine games,
but it really seems like they shouldn’t be forced to. It doesn’t matter, and no
one cares.
Cleveland Browns (0-8)
Cleveland could have been so fun this year. Robert Griffin
III rejuvenated under one of the most creative play callers in the league. A
trio of freakish athletes on the outside in Terrelle Pryor, Corey Coleman, and
Josh Gordon. A team that couldn’t do much of anything but might have a chance
of keeping up in some shootouts. This team could have won five or six games and
been a hell of a lot of fun doing so.
Instead we got injuries, on top of injuries, on top of
injuries. Griffin is out for the season. Coleman is just coming back after
showing flashes to begin the year. And it looks like Gordon will probably never
play football again, still dealing with his substance abuse issues. Pryor’s
emergence as a top NFL receiver has been the one redeeming part of this season,
but it hasn’t been enough to show up in the win column yet.
Chicago Bears (2-6)
It was tempting to move the Bears out of this category after
watching them throttle the Vikings on Monday night. In fact, there are a lot of
things going for this team. They have some exciting young talent on defense,
and an emerging stud at running back in Jordan Howard (don’t go back and read
my predraft analysis of him). And with Jay Cutler back, they have a quarterback
who is capable of performing at an extremely high level.
But they’ve still won only two games. They have a nearly
impossible hill to climb, and there are too many holes on their roster to patch
over. The offensive line is battered to pieces. The secondary is a disaster
waiting to happen. And even though I will ride for Cutler until he leaves the
NFL, he isn’t the sort of quarterback who can put together eight consecutive
strong games. The Bears will do better in the second half than they did in the
first, but that will still likely translate to only five or six wins by the end of the year.
San Francisco 49ers (1-6)
On the plus side, all the argument over the national anthem
has meant that very few people have paid attention to what the 49ers are doing
once the final note fades away. Whether it is Colin Kaepernick or Blaine Gabbert
taking snaps, the offense of the 49ers is a disgrace. Neither quarterback can
deliver the ball accurately, and the once innovative Chip Kelly seems to have
run out of ideas.
I don’t know what to do with this team. GM Trent Baalke has
needed to go for about three years, but his relationship with the owner makes
that unlikely. Kelly probably also needs to be sent back to college, for his
sake as much as anything. And this team desperately needs a quarterback. It’s
bad enough that I think they should give serious consideration to throwing
Christian Ponder out there, just to see if they can catch the opposing defense
off guard for a couple plays before they realize their third string quarterback
is just as bad as their first two.
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5)
Ugh. I don’t know what else to say. I was firmly on the
Jaguars bandwagon coming into the season. Their offense was dynamic last year,
and I had hope for their defense. Young stars like Jalen Ramsey and Dante
Fowler were always going to be up and down, but there was hope that they could
improve on that side of the ball. And they actually have shown some progress,
jumping from 26th in defensive DVOA to
18th.
But in 2016, it’s been the offensive side of the ball that
has given them trouble. And there is one very clear place to point the finger.
After being the worst starting quarterback in the league in 2014, Bortles
jumped up to being only a bottom ten quarterback in 2015. If this trend had
continued and he had jumped to simply a league average level, the Jaguars would
be competing for the division. Instead Bortles has regressed back to his worst
in the league level, and the once bright future of the Jaguars now looks as
grim as their present.
Tennessee Titans (4-4)
The Titans have the best record of any team on this tier,
but wins over Miami, Cleveland, and Jacksonville aren’t impressing me. In some
ways this team has exceeded expectations, particularly with their defense and a
running game led by some clever schemes and a rejuvenated DeMarco Murray.
They’re better than the worst team in the league, which is what I expected
coming into the season. But there are still plenty of issues to be had.
Most significant among the issues is their quarterback.
Marcus Mariota has been thoroughly below average this season, stagnating in
some areas and actually regressing in others. The scheme the Titans are running
is as poor a fit as we expected, and it has led to inefficient play and
concerning turnover numbers. And even though the team has pulled out a few
wins, the first half of this season has to be looked at as a negative. Because
if their second year quarterback doesn’t develop, the Titans have no hope of competing going forward.
New York Jets (3-5)
We always knew things were going to get off to a bad start
for the Jets. Their schedule to start the season was brutal. It wasn’t a surprise when they
lost to the Bengals, Chiefs, and Steelers, and they have pulled it together
with two straight wins after a 1-5 start. But beating the Ravens and the Browns
doesn’t change the fact that this team is not close to the fringe playoff
contender they were last year.
With Eric Decker out they don’t have the depth at receiver.
Ryan Fitzpatrick looks a lot more like the turnover prone quarterback he was
over the first ten years of his career than in 2015. And perhaps most troubling
of all, after fielding a top ten pass defense last year, the Jets are now
ranked 31st in DVOA against the pass. This was always going to be a
team that did some things really well and some things really bad. And
unfortunately, the things we thought they’d do well are currently their biggest
weaknesses.
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