Super Bowl 50 Preview

There is one game left on the season, so let’s use this opportunity to get the last of the football out of our systems. We have witnessed 266 games so far this year (332 if you count the Pro Bowl and the preseason), but this is the only one that really matters. These two teams have followed very different paths to make it here, and Sunday’s game will be a classic matchup of strength versus strength. On each side of the ball I’ve highlighted a pair of matchups that will go a long way to deciding the outcome, followed by my prediction for who will come away as Super Bowl Champions.

Miller and Ware vs Newton

The performance of Carolina’s offensive line has been one of the biggest reasons for their surprising success this year. A unit that was expected to be a major liability turned into a moderate strength, thanks to the growth of young players like Trai Turner and Andrew Norwell, as well as surprise contributions from a mediocre veteran in Michael Oher.

As a unit they are better in the running game, but they’ve improved as pass blockers over the past couple months. They stymied Seattle’s potent pass rush and held their ground against Arizona’s ferocious blitz attack. They’ve kept Cam Newton clean in the pocket all season, giving him the time and space to shred opposing defenses.

But they’ve never faced anything like Denver’s pass rush. What the Broncos did to Tom Brady in the championship round would have been hard to watch if it was anyone other than Tom Brady, and with two weeks to prepare Wade Phillips will definitely have something cooked up for Carolina. DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller get all the attention, but it’s the versatility of this pass rush that makes it truly dangerous. Derek Wolfe and Malik Jackson are known primarily for their ability to stuff the run, but they can get after the passer as well, and Phillips always knows how to put them in position to be productive.

On the perimeter the Broncos have a clear advantage. Carolina’s receiving corps isn’t scaring anyone, and they definitely aren’t a serious threat to the best three deep rotation of cornerbacks in the league. There is always the risk that Ted Ginn can beat them over the top, but I’m guessing Denver will sacrifice a play here or there in order to play tight press coverage across the board. Aqib Talib will be grabbing and shoving on one side while Chris Harris sits in the hip pocket of the receiver on the other, and there will be very few immediate windows for Newton to throw the ball into.

The Broncos have the best defense in the NFL, and Carolina will be facing a major challenge trying to move the ball against them. It will be interesting to see what their running attack can do against the formidable interior of Denver’s defense, but even if they can generate occasional yards on the ground, they will still need to find a way to pass the ball.

Newton has been the best player in the NFL this season, but beating the Broncos will require him to do something he hasn’t done all year. He is one of the most mobile quarterbacks in the league, but there is a sharp divide in his game. On any individual play he is either a runner or a passer, and he very rarely blends the two on a single play. His passing attack comes primarily from the pocket, while his running game is almost always called in the huddle.

The designed running game will be crucial for the Panthers on Sunday. A few zone reads or designed quarterback keeps will definitely slow down Denver’s edge rush, forcing them to play with discipline that will give Carolina’s offensive line an extra half a second to cut them off. But they will still eventually get home, and when they do, the Panthers will need Newton to step up to keep their offense moving.

Improvisation is not a major part of Newton’s game, but it will have to make an appearance on Sunday. Two weeks ago Denver feasted on a quarterback who was trapped in the pocket, and they will do the same if Newton doesn’t make an occasional break with the ball and use his mobility to his advantage.

Getting outside the pocket will give his receivers more time to work their way open downfield, and will force the defense to bend to respond to the threat of a run. Carolina’s offense has been a smooth and efficient machine for most of the season, and it’s very possible that they can impose their will in the same way on Denver. But, more likely than not, this game will be a low scoring contest, and will come down to a big play here or there. Newton is capable of making those big plays, but he has to be more aggressive when he has the ball in his hands.

Thomas  and Sanders vs Keuchly, Davis, Coleman, and Harper

You can throw the ball on Carolina’s defense. This is a very good unit, good enough to overshadow one of the best offenses in the league, and it has been extremely hard for any opponent to score points or move the ball on them. They are stout at every level on the field, they play with a nearly perfect blend of aggression and discipline, and they generate offense on their own by forcing the other team to give them the ball. 

But you can throw the ball on Carolina’s defense. Josh Norman deserves nearly all of the praise he has received this season, and he will be a nightmare for whoever he ends up facing. It will be interesting to see how Carolina plays this, whether they keep him on one side of the field or choose to have him shadow one of Denver’s receivers. And if they do stick him in a classic man on man battle, which receiver will they choose? 

Demaryius Thomas is the bigger name, a physical marvel who developed into one of the best receivers in the NFL after being selected in the first round in 2010. But over the past two years, it’s become increasingly clear that Denver’s best wide receiver is Emmanuel Sanders. He doesn’t have the sheer physicality of Thomas, but he is more versatile in his route running, giving the offense the ability to attack underneath and over the top. More significantly, he has much more reliable hands than Thomas, who quietly suffers as many drop issues as an receiver in the NFL.

Whoever he ends up facing, the battle of Norman versus Denver’s receivers will be one to watch. He has shut down most of the receivers he’s faced this year, though he was exposed at times by both Odell Beckham and Julio Jones. His biggest vulnerability is the same as Carolina’s as a whole, a weakness to the deep ball. They play tight coverage, and they count on being able to run with receivers, but their safeties are below average, and quality receivers can beat the coverage over the top.

This is one area where things do not break in Denver’s favor. The best way to attack Carolina is the one thing Denver cannot do. Manning has played well since returning from injury, but he still isn’t a threat down the field. He doesn’t have the arm strength to launch the ball high into the sky and let his receivers run underneath it, and he will struggle to zip balls through the windows down the field. His lone remaining strength is his ability to get the ball out of his hands quickly to underneath targets, judging the defense before the snap and trusting his mind over his body.

This plays right into Carolina’s hands. With no fear of being beaten over the top, they will be able to play even more aggressively against Denver’s receivers. And no team is better suited than the Panthers to take away the middle of the field, the easiest spot for Manning to hit. Luke Keuchly and Thomas Davis are the best pair of coverage linebackers in the league, and the windows across the middle may be too tight for Manning to fit the ball through.

Davis is the wild card in this game. Against Arizona just two weeks ago he suffered a fractured arm, which after a surgical procedure he insists won’t keep him out of the game. But we don’t know how effective he’ll be playing with it, how he’ll be able to hold up taking on blockers in the running game or making plays on the ball against the pass. Fully healthy, this Panthers linebacker corps would be a death sentence for Denver. As things are, there might just be a chance for the Broncos to hit a few windows and keep their offense on the field.

Short and Lotulelei vs Manning

Peyton Manning was very good against the Patriots. He clearly wasn’t the Manning of old, and he clearly wasn’t the main reason they won the game, but he was better than most people are giving him credit for. It seems strange to think that only a month ago we were debating whether he should even start for the Broncos in the playoffs, and now we are trying to rationalize that argument again, despite the fact that Denver would not have made it this far without the contributions Manning is still making.

He was better early in the game against the Patriots than he was late, partially due to a change in offensive style. Gary Kubiak is not the sort of coach who goes for an opponent’s throat, and he let New England claw their way back into the game with a watered down second half attack. Manning missed a couple big throws, but he still did more than enough to win the game early on and could have done even more if given a chance.

When he ran into trouble against the Patriots, it happened because of pressure. And not just any pressure either, but pressure up the middle. Interior pressure is always a bane of quarterbacks, and it is a particular problem for Manning, who has lost the pocket mobility that so defined him early in his career. The subtle shifts to the side simply aren’t available in his game anymore, and pressure in his face destroys any hope he has of completing a ball downfield.

The criticism has gone over the top, but where the doubters have a point is how Manning handled the pressure he faced in New England. In short, it was ugly. The Broncos saw multiple possessions end due to Manning’s lack of mobility, as his response to interior pressure was to scramble backwards a couple yards then fall flat on the ground (a trick I’m guessing he learned from rookie backup Trevor Siemian. Go Cats.)

Denver’s offensive line isn’t very good, so there is going to be pressure in Manning’s face no matter who the opponent is. And in this case, the opponent is Carolina, a team that has just come off back to back games beating up Russell Wilson and Carson Palmer. Their edge rush is not particularly frightening (though Kony Ealy has been coming along, and I still believe in Jared Allen to make a couple plays in this game). But their interior is among the best in the league, with Kawann Short and Star Lotulelei shredding the interior of every line they’ve faced this season.

The Broncos aren’t built to handle any quality defensive lines, but this one is particularly suited to hurt them. Manning doesn’t have the mobility to escape pressure in his face, and he doesn’t have the arm strength to complete a throw without being able to push his whole body through it. In short, Denver’s only hope is to keep the pocket clean.

The way to do this is through the running game. Penetration is the great weapon of interior rushers, but it can also be a vulnerability, one that Kubiak’s famous zone running scheme is designed to exploit. As the tackles of Carolina’s defense come bursting up the field, they will open lanes up behind them, lanes that CJ Anderson and Ronnie Hillman have to be able to see and exploit.

The Broncos need to break a couple big runs this way, but even that threat probably won’t be enough to slow down Carolina. The athleticism and range of their linebackers gives their defensive tackles great freedom to play with aggression, and they aren’t going to sacrifice this out of fear of runners like Anderson or Hillman. Short and Lotulelei will be coming after Manning all game long, and it may very well be too much for the veteran quarterback to handle.

Greg Olsen vs TBD

Above I mentioned that I thought the Broncos wouldn’t have any trouble staying with Carolina’s receivers, and I stand by that down here. There might not be a more lopsided possible matchup in the NFL than Denver’s cornerbacks against Carolina’s receivers, and after shutting down Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola two weeks ago, things should only be easier against Ted Ginn and Devin Funchess. They can play matchups, they can play alignment, they can do anything they want, and barring spectacular plays by Cam Newton the Panthers wide receivers will not pose any threat in this game.

Carolina’s receiving corps has been miserable all season, but they’ve managed to put together a solid passing attack. Newton deserves most of the credit for this, but we also need to acknowledge the performance of Greg Olsen. The former Bears first round pick is coming off the best season of his career, responsible for 77 receptions and 1106 yards.

The Panthers passing game revolves around Olsen, and this is one area where they are set up to take advantage of the Broncos. Denver’s defense doesn’t have a weakness, but they don’t quite have the same level of stars up the middle as in other places on their team. Brandon Marshall, Danny Travathan, TJ Ward, and Darian Stewart are all extremely good football players who would be top of the line starters on just about any other team in the league. But when surrounded by Miller, Ware, Wolfe, Jackson, Talib, Roby, and Harris, they are the clear weakness of this strong team.

I bring this stat up fairly often in my posts, but just for those of you who aren’t familiar, here’s a refresher on DVOA. DVOA is a competition adjusted metric that measures play by play success and uses this to compare the overall value of a unit on the field. Unsurprisingly, Denver finished number one defensively in this category this year. (Carolina was number two defensively, while the Panthers and the Broncos were 8^th and 25^th respectively on offense.)

DVOA also goes into a bit more depth, comparing how defenses fare against different types of wide receivers. When looking at the Broncos, it’s clear that this is a very talented defense across the board. They were fourth in the league against number one receivers, fourth against number two receivers, fourth against all other receivers, and second against running backs out of the backfield. And against tight ends, they were a lowly eighth.

Yeah, I know. Hardly a disappointment. But it’s something, and it certainly showed up against New England. The Broncos had no answer for Rob Gronkowski (few teams do), and the best tight end in the league nearly single handedly dragged the Patriots back into the game. Olsen isn’t on Gronkowski’s level, but he is in the next tier down, and he will be even more crucial than normal to Carolina’s passing game.

The most interesting part of this matchup is how the Broncos will choose to play him. The obvious solution is to use Talib, a big, physical cornerback who can body Olsen when he lines up in the slot and prevent him from creating quick separation. They would still have Harris and Roby to play on the outside, and keeping Talib closer to the middle of the field would give them an extra big body against the run. This probably won’t end up happening, and I will absolutely defer to the judgment of Wade Phillips on this one. But this is a matchup that could very easily swing the game for Carolina’s offense, and Denver has an appetizing potential solution available if they want to take it.

Carolina Panthers vs Denver Broncos

Breaking down matchups is a lot of fun, but it cannot tell a complete story by itself. If you read just the first section above, you would think that Denver’s pass rush would swarm Carolina and win them the game. If you read the next three sections, you would think that Carolina’s strength up the middle would allow them to run away with things. And if you skipped down to just this part, you would see that I gave Carolina the edge in three matchups to Denver’s one and assume that I was picking them.

Well, I am, but there’s more to it than just what I discussed above. As far as those particular matchups go, here is how I see it playing out. Denver will be able to generate pressure on Newton, and Carolina’s offense will struggle. They’re talented enough that they won’t be completely stymied, but they will have trouble to consistently move the ball. Greg Olsen and their running game will give them some life, but Denver’s defense is like nothing else they’ve faced this year, and even the highest scoring offense in the league will struggle to generate points.

The end result of this will be a low scoring game, which plays into Denver’s hands. They can’t possibly win a shootout with Carolina, but if they can keep things below 20 points for most of the game, they can pull out just enough offensively to keep themselves alive. Manning’s deep ball is probably the worst in the league, but I think he completes at least one long pass to Sanders, and their running game can stitch enough together to get them a couple scores.

In the end, I think this game will come down to two factors. The first is productivity in the red zone. Denver’s running game can be effective, but it will struggle when Carolina is able to truly stack the line, closing off the cutback lanes their zone blocking scheme relies on. The Broncos offensive line isn’t good enough to generate the sort of push needed to clear space in the red zone, and Manning doesn’t have the zip on his passes to fit them between the tight windows in Carolina’s back end. Denver will end up settling for field goals, while Carolina and Cam Newton will be their usual dominant selves in forcing their way into the end zone.

The other factor that will decide this game is turnovers. Peyton Manning has kept things remarkably clean since returning from injury, but he still had 17 interceptions on the season, and he would have had a game losing pick against the Steelers if not for a great play by Sanders to knock it loose. Sooner or later the pressure will get to him, he won’t be able to step into a throw, and he’ll float the ball into the middle of the field for someone like Keuchly or Davis to grab.

This game could easily turn into a blowout for Carolina, but I think Denver’s defense is strong enough to keep them in the game. It isn’t good enough to win it by themselves, not unless the offense plays the best game possible. In the end, Carolina's balance on both offense and defense will be too much for the Broncos to handle, and they will claim their first Super Bowl  title.

Final score: Carolina 24 – Denver 16