Plight of the Receiver

Antonio Brown is the best wide receiver in the NFL. He finished second in the league in receptions and receiving yards in 2013, then he led the league in both categories last year. His 129 receptions in 2015 were the second most by any receiver in a single season in NFL history, and he famously put together a streak of 35 consecutive games with at least five catches for 50 yards. Those numbers don’t sound that impressive, until you realize the second longest such streak in NFL history is 19 games. Over the past two seasons Brown has been both the most consistent and most productive receiver in the NFL.

The streak ended two weeks ago with a performance of five catches for 42 yards against the Ravens, followed by only three catches for 45 yards against San Diego. And it isn’t hard to find the reason for this. Each of the previous 35 games was started by Ben Roethlisberger, now out with a sprained MCL. Michael Vick has started the past two games, and while he did enough to win on Monday against the Chargers (and, realistically, enough that they should have beaten the Ravens), it would only be mild hyperbole to say he's been a disaster in the two games he’s played. Their passing game has almost disappeared with him under center, enough that the Steelers considered rushing Roethlisberger back for this week's game against the Cardinals.

(A quick side note, since I might not get a chance to talk about it elsewhere. Through five weeks there isn’t a unit in the league that has been a more pleasant surprise than the Steelers defense. First year coordinator Keith Butler has revitalized what was expected to be one of the league’s worst defenses, bringing aggression to a unit that was sorely lacking it during the final years of Dick LeBeau's tenure.  Their secondary still can’t cover worth a damn, but they’re doing a lot of damage as blitzers off the edge, creating the game changing plays that have been lacking from their defense over the past couple years. But the biggest factor in their success has been their defensive line. Second year player Stephon Tuitt has taken an even greater leap than even the most optimistic analyst predicted, and Cameron Heyward is playing at as high a level as any defensive player in the league.)

Back to the offense. Brown’s performance has been a major disappointment over the past two weeks, but he can hardly be blamed for his lack of production. He’s still getting open on a regular basis, and he can still make plays when he gets the ball in his hands, but without a competent quarterback there is only so much a receiver can do.

We shouldn’t feel too sorry for Brown. He’s had to endure Vick for two weeks, but sooner or later Roethlisberger will be back, and Brown will once again find himself catching passes from a quarterback who was as playing as well as any in the league prior to his injury. There are plenty of other receivers in the league dealing with the same circumstances, receivers who don't have the same hope on the horizon. These are players who could be superstars in other circumstances, but are instead hanging on the fringes of the public’s attention because of the disasters throwing them the ball.

Kendall Wright – Tennessee Titans

We’ll start with a player who would have been the most obvious choice on this list a year ago but now appears as if he might not belong. Wright was a first round pick out of Baylor in 2012, and though he was productive over his first three seasons, he was never really thought of as one of the top receivers in the league. He flashed potential, but his best games were usually as ignored as everything else happening in Tennessee. People who follow football closely know who he is and what he can do, but to most casual fans he remains relatively anonymous.

That looks like it could change soon. Marcus Mariota is off to a stellar start to his career, and the Titans look like a team on the rise. They’re only 1-3, but they probably should have won against both Indianapolis and Buffalo. Wright is the best receiver on an improving offense, but so far this year he hasn't quite lived up to the rest of the team, on pace for only 64 catches and 968 yards.

Those are good numbers, but they are actually below Wright’s career best 94 receptions for 1079 yards in 2013. He hasn’t exploded in the way many would expect, and he’s starting to express some frustration with his role in the offense. Mariota has impressed so far, but he’s done so in a way that doesn’t play to Wright’s strengths. Wright excels at stretching the field, blowing things open over the top and producing big plays. So far Mariota has produced through an efficient short passing attack, maximizing their offense but minimizing Wright’s potential.

The breakout for Wright is coming, and it will probably occur by the end of the year. The offense will develop as the season goes along, with Wright and Mariota powering it to new heights. By this time next year Wright will have the attention he deserves, populating an entirely different list of top NFL receivers.

Jarvis Landry – Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are a mess, but there is one clear bright spot on this team. Landry was probably the tenth best rookie receiver in the league last year, but he also might be the most unique of the entire class. Based on his results at the Combine you’d be hard pressed to imagine him playing in the NFL, running a 4.77 forty yard dash and putting up an embarrassing 28.5 inches in the vertical leap. Because of these limitations he fell all the way to the 63^rd pick, the twelfth receiver off the board.

But things seem to change when he gets on the field, his unathleticism melting away to make him a dynamic playmaker. He doesn’t threaten teams down the field, but he always seems to find ways to create separation underneath, usually giving himself enough space to create after the catch. So far this year he’s been targeted with 46 passes, a per game rate that leaves him fifth in the league.

The problem is that he hasn’t been able to convert these targets into production. So far he has only 28 catches for 270 yards, giving him a yards per target rate fourth worst among the fifty most targeted receivers. With no one else to threaten them teams are starting to clue in on Landry, closing down the space he needs to operate underneath. He is the sort of receiver who will produce no matter what, but to truly be successful he will need some threats to take attention away from him. He needs Kenny Stills to push the safeties back, Lamar Miller to draw linebackers into the box, and most of all Ryan Tannehill to show defenses that Miami can do anything other than throw quick passes to Landry.

Allen Robinson – Jacksonville Jaguars

I promise I’m not going to just keep listing second year receivers (though I could, Mike Evans, Sammy Watkins, Jordan Matthews), but Robinson is as unique a talent as Landry. Where Landry is small and quick and capable of exploiting teams underneath, Robinson is a massive target who can stretch teams down the field. His measurables weren’t much better coming into the draft, but he shows a consistent ability to go up in the air and get the ball at its highest point, fighting off defenders to create plays even when he’s well covered.

Robinson’s failure to emerge as a star can be pinned on two sources: health and quarterback play. He was on the verge of breaking out last season before a foot injury cost him the final six games of the season. This year he is finally starting to show what he can do, and he will continue to do so if he can count on Bortles. That’s the real interesting part of the equation. Bortles has been as up and down this year as he was in 2014, but it’s been in a different way. His highs have been higher, and his lows haven’t been as low. On the whole he’s taken a step forward, and his progress is coinciding with a leap in Robinson’s production. It’s still hard to say exactly what Bortles will be in the long run, and that uncertainty will keep the Jaguars and Robinson at the fringes of attention. But he’ll continue to do what he can to produce, providing a weapon that will only help his developing quarterback.

Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs

As a tight end, Kelce is in a different category than the rest of the players on this list, but the fundamental premise is the same. He is a phenomenally gifted receiver, the sort of player you could build an offense around, and in the right circumstances he could be an absolutely devastating weapon. And while his talents certainly seem to play to the strengths of Alex Smith, the issues at the quarterback position still hold him back from putting up the sort of numbers that would earn him the recognition he deserves as the second best tight end in the league.

Rob Gronkowski is clearly the gold standard of current NFL tight ends. He dominates the game both on the field and in the stats sheet, putting up numbers that (health willing) have him on the way to the Hall of Fame . No one can do the things he does, and I’m not going to waste your time claiming that Kelce is able to. But I also think the gap is much closer than many believe. Were their situations reversed, I still think Gronkowski would be the better player, but Kelce is talented enough that he could serve Gronkowski's role in Tom Brady's offense.

The biggest difference between the two quarterback situations is trust. Tom Brady knows what kind of weapon he has in Gronkowski, and he knows that his big tight end can win the ball even when he looks to be covered. He trusts Gronkowski to make a play, and because of this trust he is willing to take risks with the ball. Alex Smith is a serviceable NFL quarterback, but his risk aversion is right on the edge of a paralyzing weakness. He only throws to open receivers, and only when he’s absolutely sure they are open. Kelce is a functional route runner, and he can create separation working on a linebacker. But his greatest asset is his size, a 6’6” frame packing 260 pounds that allow him to overpower smaller defenders. A top notch quarterback (or even a mediocre quarterback not so terrified of throwing interceptions, someone along the lines of Matthew Stafford or Jay Cutler) would learn how to take advantage of his skills to power their offense. But with Alex Smith at the helm, Kelce has no choice but to settle for a spot in the second tier of tight ends in the league.

Pierre Garcon – Washington Redskins

Remember when I mentioned that Brown had the second most receptions in the league in 2013? Well unless you are as serious a football fan as I am, you probably wouldn’t have been able to guess that Garcon was the player on the list above him. In his second season with the Redskins, Garcon caught 113 passes for 1346 yards, the sort of production that should have been enough to get him in the conversation of the top ten receivers in the league. But last year proved as disastrous for him as it was for the rest of the team, as his production dropped to 68 catches for only 752 yards.

It isn’t hard to see an explanation for this dropoff. Robert Griffin III wasn’t the superstar in 2013 that he was in 2012, but he was better than most people remember, far better than he was in 2014 and better than either Colt McCoy or Kirk Cousins has been filling in for him. Without him playing at his highest level, teams no longer have to fear the versatility of his attack, his ability to destroy a team underneath with his legs and take the top off with his arm. Garcon and teammate DeSean Jackson are the perfect receivers to lead a deep passing attack, the speed of Jackson complementing the physicality and ball skills of Garcon. Their offensive line is starting to come together, but they are still sorely lacking at the quarterback position, and at this point I think it’s fair to assume that neither Cousins nor Griffin is going to be Garcon’s savior.

DeAndre Hopkins – Houston Texans

I’ll admit that it’s a bit weird to refer to the NFL’s leader in receiving yards (before Julio Jones passed him on Thursday) as someone being held back by their quarterback, but there is no receiver in the league suffering from a worse situation. Right now Houston has the worst quarterbacks in the league, bouncing back and forth between Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett without much clear purpose or direction. Both quarterbacks have been disasters when on the field, and both have been benched on multiple occasions this season. I honestly have no idea who they will play going forward, and for once I don’t have a strong opinion on what they should do either. The Texans simply do not have a worthy option to put under center right now.

It’s disappointing when any team goes through the mess the Texans are facing , but it’s particularly depressing when these problems are holding back a budding superstar like Hopkins. Right now he has a case to make as one of the five best receivers in the NFL, and no one is bothering to pay any attention to him because he’s a part of the ugliest passing game in the league. People dismiss his stats as the result of an absurd number of targets (75 so far this season, on pace for 240. The record is 208.)

But his inefficiency on a per target basis has far more to do with his quarterbacks than it does with him. For every pass that sails wildly over his head, he makes a fantastic leaping play to bail his passers out. For every time Mallett or Hoyer forces it into double coverage, he creates enough separation to give them an easy throw. Right now DeAndre Hopkins is carrying his team’s passing game in a way no other receiver in the league is, possibly in a way no other receiver in the league could. If he’s lucky, sometime down the road he’ll find a quarterback worthy of throwing to him. If he’s not, he’ll wind up walking the same path blazed by the superstar he's replacing.