2021 Mock Draft: I Call the Shots

It’s mock draft time! As always, I’ll be doing two mock drafts this year. This is the first, which goes through every pick based on what would happen if I was in charge of all the selections. The second will come tomorrow, taking a look at what I think will actually happen.

1) Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

I’m not going to stray from consensus on this one. Lawrence is as close to a sure thing as you get at the quarterback position, and the Jaguars are in no position to pass that up. They’ve got pieces of a good offense in place, so he won’t be dropped into a hopeless situation like some other top quarterbacks in recent years. I’m a little wary about his fit in Urban Meyer’s offensive system, but I don’t think any of the other top quarterbacks in the class scream being a better fit, and Lawrence’s experience in a spread-out, quick-hitting offense at Clemson will help ease the transition.

2) New York Jets – Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

Jets fans were devastated when their team won twice over the final month of the season to bounce them out of the top draft position. Fortunately for them, this is a year with two quarterbacks worthy of a top pick. Fields has true superstar potential, with just a few more things that need cleaning up than Lawrence. New York isn’t exactly a great place to go, but he has more to work with than Darnold did, especially if the Jets continue to add to their offense with the draft capital they have stocked up.

3) San Francisco 49ers – Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

This is the first spot where I was even tempted to go away from the quarterback position. There are better players on the board than Wilson, and at this point I’m willing to treat the draft picks the 49ers gave up to get to this spot as a sunk cost. But Wilson is a really talented player, and San Francisco is a perfect destination for him. The 49ers are a team with the ability to leap back to the playoffs right away, and they likely won’t have another chance to draft this high for a while, so I can’t pass up a quarterback even with some of the other enticing players on the board.

4) Atlanta Falcons – Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama

This was a pick between two absolutely special receiving weapons. Kyle Pitts probably fits better on a Falcons team that already has two excellent wide receivers, but being able to slide Smith into the slot is far from a bad thing. Julio Jones is 32 years old, and adding another unique talent to this offense will let them keep things rolling as he ages, giving them one last shot to keep things going with Matt Ryan and then something to build on whenever they find their next quarterback.

5) Cincinnati Bengals – Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon

Pitts was an option here too, but after watching what happened to Joe Burrow a year ago, I can’t pass up on the elite offensive line prospect. The Bengals leaned into Burrow’s strength in a five-wide setup a season ago, and it nearly got him killed behind an offensive line that wasn’t up to the task. They signed Riley Reiff in the offseason, and Jonah Williams isn’t bad at left tackle, but you can always use more depth on your line. I’m not sure what the ideal lineup of this unit is, but with this much talent there has to be a way to make it work.

6) Miami Dolphins – Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

I can’t justify letting Pitts slide any farther than this, even though Miami already has one freakishly gifted tight end in Mike Gesicki. Pitts is on another level entirely, and he is the sort of matchup problem this offense desperately needs. In tight formations or split to the outside, there really isn’t any defender out there who can keep up with Pitts. In a couple of years he’ll be among the best tight ends in the league, and the Dolphins are in no position to pass that up.

7) Detroit Lions – Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU

Detroit’s wide receiver depth chart is actually kind of shocking. Their starting wide receivers right now are Breshad Perriman and Tyrell Williams, two receivers I might be okay with if they were number three options. Chase doesn’t fix this by himself, but he goes a long way to doing so. He’s big, he’s fast, and he has excellent ball skills. He’s the sort of wide receiver you can just chuck the ball up to and trust that it will work out, which is likely what this offense is going to need to do a lot of to succeed this year.

8) Carolina Panthers – Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern

Carolina has done a lot with their offensive line over the past two years, but I’m still not sure if any of the moves they’ve made were actually good. Taylor Moton is fine, but they franchise tagged him more out of necessity than anything else. Greg Little has potential on the left side, but I would like it a whole lot more if they shifted him to guard and dropped Slater in at tackle.

9) Denver Broncos – Jeremiah Owusu-Koromoah, LB/S/CB, Notre Dame

The first defender I have going off the board is the jack-of-all-trades Owusu-Koromoah. He’s listed in most places as a linebacker, but he’s built more like a safety, and he spent most of his time playing as a slot cornerback. I think that’s the best place for him in the NFL as well, but with his speed, instincts, and ball skills, he’ll make plays no matter where he goes. Denver has the pieces of a good pass rush, but outside of that their defense is pretty bare, and adding a playmaker on the back end could go a long way towards turning this back into a dangerous unit.

10) Dallas Cowboys – Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan

Dallas needs help at pretty much every level of their defense. A cornerback would be a good pick here as well, and I probably do like Caleb Farley a bit more than Paye as a prospect. But Farley has enough injury concerns to close this small gap, and I’ll give the Cowboys the best edge defender in the class. Paye is still working on finding the consistency his skills suggest he can have, and if he can pull things together in the NFL he can be an elite player against both the run and the pass.

11) New York Giants – Jaelan Phillips, EDGE, Miami

This is really a two man class among pass rushers, and they go back-to-back in my draft. The Giants have the look of a very good defense, but they need someone on the edge to help get after the quarterback. They have a lot of big bodies to eat up space on the inside, and Phillips can bring the speed they need around the edge. He has some health concerns as well, but in a weak pass rushing class the dropoff between him and the next option on the board is enough to overlook these concerns.

12) Philadelphia Eagles – Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech

Farley’s injury concerns don’t cause him to fall far here, as the run on defensive players continues. It would probably make sense to get Jalen Hurts some help on offense after Carson Wentz crashed and burned on a lifeless unit a year ago, but the Eagles aren’t exactly overflowing with talent in the defensive backfield either. Darius Slay didn’t have a great first year in Philadelphia, but he should bounce back in his second year with the team. Past him though, a healthy Farley will have plenty of opportunities to make an immediate impact.

13) Los Angeles Chargers – Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama

The Chargers have a pair of big, physical targets to help out their young quarterback, and now they add some speed. Waddle is a special kind of fast, and he shows enough flashes of other skills to reassure me this isn’t another John Ross. His stop-start ability is almost as remarkable as his top end speed, and if he can harness that, he can become one of the best receivers in football. Even if he doesn’t, the skills he brings will provide a playmaking threat to a Chargers offense that looks ready to erupt.

14) Minnesota Vikings – Alijah Vera-Tucker, OT/OG, USC

This is probably too high for Vera-Tucker. But the Vikings desperately need something on the offensive line, and Vera-Tucker fits the run-heavy, play action style offense they like to run. I think he is better suited to play guard, which means bumping last year’s second-round pick Ezra Cleveland out to one of the tackle positions. It isn’t a real fix, but it’s a start.

15) New England Patriots – Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State

Lance isn’t going to be available at this point on the actual night of the draft, but I’m lower on him than most people seem to be. His accuracy is all over the place, and he is as raw as any quarterback that I have seen enter the league. But his talent is undeniable, and he is as close to a replication of Cam Newton as any quarterback we’ve seen enter the league since. Learning behind the veteran for a year would be ideal, but in the more likely event he finds his way onto the field he’d be well suited to transition into New England’s run-first offensive system.

16) Arizona Cardinals – Patrick Surtain Jr, CB, Alabama

Patrick Peterson is now in Minnesota, and the Cardinals need a replacement in the back end. I like Byron Murphy at one cornerback, and I’m intrigued to see how they will use Isaiah Simmons and Budda Baker as dynamic forces in the middle of the field. Surtain can come along slowly with this unit, just playing his responsibilities and not being burdened with extra playmaking expectations.

17) Las Vegas Raiders – Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State

The Raiders keep drafting defensive players, and it keeps making not that much difference. Over the past five years they’ve spent two first round picks on safeties, two on cornerbacks, and one on an edge pass rusher. Most of those players are still around, contributing to various degrees of effectiveness. What they really need is someone to plop in the middle, a stout anchor to tie the rest of their defense around. Parsons is a big, gifted athlete who can stuff the run and drop into coverage. He may not be the most dynamic defender in the world, but he’s a useful piece on a defense still trying to find some semblance of an identity.

18) Miami Dolphins – Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina

Miami has had so many high draft selections over the past couple years that any pick at this point feels redundant. Take a receiver, already have Pitts. Take an offensive lineman, already have Austin Jackson. So might as well go after the best player available, even though they already have two high-priced cornerbacks and a first round pick from last year. The Dolphins love putting their cornerbacks on islands, and Horn has the skills to be an elite shutdown defender, especially if he has a couple years to develop slowly in Miami’s deep secondary.

19) Washington Football Team – Mac Jones, QB, Alabama

Washington came on strong down the stretch last year, powered by an exciting young defense that carried a lifeless offense. Jones isn’t going to light the world on fire by any means, but he’s capable of sliding into an offense and riding an ascending team to success. There’s a decent chance that in five years Washington is right back where they were with Kirk Cousins three years ago, unclear on whether or not they want to commit to their quarterback long term. But five years is a long time for a team that looks like it has a chance to compete right now if they have simple competence at quarterback.

20) Chicago Bears – Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue

The Bears just miss out on the quarterback sweepstakes, which means any hopes of competing in 2021 are more or less dead. Matt Nagy and Ryan Pace won’t survive a year with Andy Dalton at quarterback no matter who they select here. So they might as well take a chance on their way out, grab a player with the potential to be a star they can point to when trying to get jobs in the future. Injuries stifled Moore’s college career, but he is a one-of-a-kind athlete who will give Bears fans something to cheer for, an immediate lightning bolt as a returner with the potential of developing into a real offensive weapon down the road.

21) Indianapolis Colts – Greg Newsome, CB, Northwestern

Indianapolis got a strong performance from Xavier Rhodes a year ago, but he’s still an aging and injury-prone cornerback, and they need an infusion of youth at that position. Newsome has some stuff to clean up, particularly when it comes to getting overly physical with opposing receivers. This is the same thing Rhodes struggled with early in his career before emerging as one of the best cornerbacks in the league in Minnesota, and letting Newsome develop alongside a veteran for a year or two is an excellent approach for him.

22) Tennessee Titans – Terrace Marshall, WR, LSU

Corey Brown left in the offseason, so the Titans are back to having very little depth at wide receiver. AJ Brown is very good as a physical threat in the middle and underneath parts of the field, where he can get the ball and use his ability after the catch to pick up big chunks of yards. Marshall would add a vertical component to the offense, which would be particularly value with their play-action heavy passing game.

23) New York Jets – Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech

Darrisaw isn’t the most exciting offensive line prospect I’ve ever studied, but the Jets already have that guy in Mekhi Becton. They just need simple competence across the way from him, and that is what Darrisaw will provide. The biggest red flag for Fields is that he has a tendency to hold onto the ball too long waiting for stuff to develop down the field, and giving him an excellent offensive line would go a long way towards maximizing his abilities.

24) Pittsburgh Steelers – Teven Jenkins, OT/OG, Oklahoma State

Pittsburgh’s offensive line was a mess a year ago, and that was before they lost their starting center and left tackle to retirement and free agency. I don’t love Jenkins, and I’m not sure of his fit here. The best bet would probably be to try to put him at left guard and lean on a power running game with him and David DeCastro on the interior. At this point, he’s the best choice for a team that desperately needs line help and is trying to scrape one more year out of Ben Roethlisberger before starting on what will likely be a difficult offensive rebuild.

25) Jacksonville Jaguars – Jamin Davis, LB, Kentucky

This is a pick all about value. If two linemen hadn’t just gone off the board, it would have made sense to give Lawrence some help there. But the Jaguars have some pieces to work with on the line and in the receiving corps already, so instead I’ll stick them with the best available player on the defensive side of the ball. Davis is a dominant run stuffing linebacker with the athleticism to grow as a pass defender. He probably won’t be an All Pro caliber player at any point, but he’ll be a useful starter for a defense that desperately needs one of those.

26) Cleveland Browns – Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida

The Browns took a leap forward last year, but if they really want to keep it going they need to add weapons. It’s unclear to what extent they can count on Odell Beckham being available, and Jarvis Landry has always been limited as a wide receiver. Toney is limited as well, but his ability in space will give them a spark on the outside this offense was missing a year ago, giving Baker Mayfield someone he can get the ball to quickly and trust to create yards on the outside.

27) Baltimore Ravens – Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia

This is as perfect a fit as it gets at this point in the first round. Ojulari doesn’t have the burst and athleticism to be an elite pass rusher on his own, but he’s a very well-rounded player who is best suited as one cog in a very talented defense, of the sort Baltimore already has. He’s a smart player who can be counted on to stick to his assignments, and can provide some burst as a pass rushing threat on designed stunts while his more talented teammates occupy the pass protection.

28) New Orleans Saints – Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas

New Orleans is squeezed by the salary cap, and there’s a decent chance after this year they’ll have to bid farewell to one of their excellent starting tackles. Cosmi isn’t ready to start right away, but with a year on the bench he could develop some of the consistency he’s currently lacking. The Saints did an excellent job developing a similarly raw but freakishly athletic tackle in Terron Armstead, and Cosmi could very easily be his heir on the left side of the line.

29) Green Bay Packers – Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota

The Packers have ignored Aaron Rodgers’s pleas to get more receiving talent for years, and after his displeasure at the Jordan Love selection a year ago, I think they’ll give in this year. I’m lower on Bateman than most, since I don’t see the explosiveness on tape I want from an elite receiver. But in a lot of ways that matches the concerns I had about Davante Adams early in his career, and I can see a scenario in which Bateman follows a very similar development trajectory.

30) Buffalo Bills – Joseph Ossai, EDGE, Texas

Buffalo pushed deep into the playoffs a year ago on the back of an offense that took a massive leap forward. Massive enough that it covered up how badly their defense regressed from 2019. They still have some very good pieces in place on that side of the ball, but their two starting defensive ends are 32 and 33 years old. They need some youth and some speed in the pass rushing game, and Ossai will provide both, even if it’s just as a rotational threat to start his career.

31) Baltimore Ravens – Asante Samuel Jr, CB, Florida State

Baltimore acquired this pick by trading Orlando Brown, and they’re probably holding out hopes they can use it to help fill out their offensive line. But with the run on linemen in the picks above, there aren’t really any worth taking at this spot. So instead they’ll happily bolster their secondary depth. Samuel doesn’t have the physical skills of the cornerbacks drafted above him, but he’s similar to Ojulari in making up for his lack of raw talent with his instincts and intelligence. He’ll be a good fit as a slot cornerback for this defense.

32) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Jayson Oweh, EDGE, Penn State

The Buccaneers won the Super Bowl due to tremendous depth, and there isn’t a glaring need on their roster. So I’m throwing Oweh in here as much just to get his name in as any belief he’s worth taking this high. He’s not a good football player, but he also might be the best pure athlete in the entire draft. And with Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaquille Barrett in Tampa Bay, he’ll have the time he needs to figure out how to play the position before he’s relied on to actually get onto the field.