2021 Linebacker and Safety Prospects

Last week I broke down the top cornerbacks in this year’s draft. Of course, cornerbacks are only one piece of a secondary, partnering with the safeties that patrol the deep and middle parts of the field. If you’re in the market for a safety though, this really isn’t the year for it. So I’ve lumped them in with the top linebackers in this year’s class, a fascinating group with some excellent athletes of the sort that are flourishing in the modern NFL.

Jeremiah Owusu-Koromoah, LB/S, Notre Dame

The hardest, and most fun, part of scouting Owusu-Koromoah is trying to figure out what he is going to do in the NFL. He is certainly a special athlete, with the sort of tools that flash every time he steps onto the field. He has the size of a traditional linebacker with the movement skills of a safety, and he flies all over the place to deliver devastating hits, particularly when he comes downhill towards a ball in front of him. He can slide around blockers with ease, and he can keep up with wide receivers running from the slot, with long arms to break up passes in front of him.

Owusu-Koromoah can do so much on the field that it almost becomes a game to pick out what he can’t do. He isn’t great as a point of attack run defender in the box. He sometimes can get undisciplined holding his gap discipline, and he’s a shaky tackler in space, often moving too fast to get himself under control. For these reasons I’m not sure I like him as an every down player in the box, though he’s certainly capable of playing in there as the defense needs him.

The best role for Owusu-Koromah is likely the same one he played the most in college, and that is as a slot cornerback. He may not be able to stick to receivers over long developing routes the way a traditional cornerback can, but he’s good enough in coverage for teams to take advantage of everything else he brings to the table. He has the physicality to challenge tight ends, he demolishes screens thrown towards him, and he is lethal as a blitzer. In the right circumstances, he could be a true game changer on defense. These circumstances do matter however, and I have enough concerns that I would hesitate to take him in the top ten of the draft.

Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State

Parsons is a very similar athlete to Owusu-Koromoah, but with the skills of a more traditional linebacker. On the one hand this makes him easier to project, since he can plug into just about any defensive scheme. On the other hand, he provides less upside as a playmaker, which is why I would take a gamble on the more versatile player I have listed above. They should probably go in the same range in the middle of the first round though, and I would understand a team preferring the linebacker out of Penn State.

Parsons spent most of his time in college playing in the box, and he will do the same in the NFL. He’s fantastic at knifing through a gap and shooting into the backfield to drag down a ball carrier, particularly on the backside of the play. He struggles sometimes when blockers come straight at him, trying to duck around them rather than meeting them head-on and stuffing up the hole. He isn’t a pure physical run stopper, and he’ll allow a few yards after contact on most tackles.

But linebackers have to be quality pass defenders to be worth a first round pick in this day and age, and Parsons has the tools to be a great one. He may not be able to match up with wide receivers in the slot like Owusu-Koromoah, but he has the speed and physicality to be perfect in man to man coverage against tight ends. He’s rangy in zone coverage as well, and he is elite as a blitzer, capable of being in the quarterback’s lap before anyone even realizes he hasn’t dropped back into coverage. Most young linebackers struggle in coverage when they enter the NFL, and projecting this part of the game is always a challenge. But I expect within two or three years Parsons will be a very useful piece in the middle of the defense.

Jamin Davis, LB, Kentucky

There’s a pretty clear drop between the top two players and the rest of this class. The other linebackers simply lack the raw athleticism of Owusu-Koromoah and Parsons, as well as their natural feel for playing in coverage. There are still some who will likely turn into solid starters, and that makes them worth a pick in the second round.

Davis is the one case I might be able to talk myself into at the end of the first round. He’s the best pure run defender in the class, and that will give him an easy role right away on first and second down while he develops his skills as a pass defender. He’s the surest tackler of all the linebackers I studied, rarely missing tackles in space and almost always sticking ball carriers exactly where first contact is made. He sometimes gives ground too readily against blockers, but he’s consistently able to disengage, and to work from there to bring down a running back cutting through the hole.

As I mentioned Davis is a work in progress when it comes to pass defense, but he has potential there. He rarely played in man coverage in college and I’m not sure he has the agility to keep up consistently in that scheme, but he’s the best of the second tier of linebackers I studied in zone coverage. He gets great depth on his drops, and his head is always darting around looking for a receiver coming into his space. There’s still work to do in actually moving his body to take away these passing lanes, but at the very least he’ll be starting from farther along than other linebackers below him.

Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU

Moehrig was the only pure safety I studied this year, and even after three games watching his film I wouldn’t say I have a great feel for him as a player. He’s undoubtedly an excellent athlete, with speed to cover a ton of ground and agility to break on a dime to keep up with a receiver in coverage. At times he can look like a true superstar out on the field, at others like just another run of the mill deep safety. The upside might be enough to justify a selection at the end of the first round, but I probably think he should go somewhere early in the second.

Moehrig is at his best playing back away from the line of scrimmage. When he’s forced to play man coverage in the slot, he can have trouble stopping quick-hitting routes. He benefits from having space and time to read and react to what’s in front of him. He’s very smart about where he positions himself and how to turn his body to be in position to come downhill and make a play on the ball. He sometimes struggles at the point of the catch, but he has the tools and the instincts to make some very nice plays on the ball as well.

He doesn’t do much for me when it comes to run support. He never really comes up in a hurry, and sometimes bites on misdirection plays. His angles are usually decent, and his speed helps cover up some otherwise slow reactions. This is fine if he’s going to stick as a deep safety, but he isn’t the sort of versatile player who can bounce between multiple roles and be a true gadget option for a clever defensive coordinator.

Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa

Collins may have the pure straight-line speed to match the top two in this class, but he isn’t at the same level when he is asked to change directions. He is a very linear athlete, and it shows up in every aspect of his game. When used as a rusher off the edge he can get a good burst up the field but never turns the corner to the quarterback. When running plays don’t come straight at him, he struggles to navigate through traffic. I’m not sure I saw him disengage from a block once, and his only real strategy seems to be hurling himself into a blocker and hoping this can stuff up the hole, usually to limited effect.

Collins’s speed allows him to be involved in plays most other linebackers wouldn’t have a chance at. He can chase the ball out to the sideline and across from the weak side of the field, provided nothing gets in his way and forces him to alter his route. When he sees a slow developing run play, he can knife into the backfield and bring the ball carrier down for a huge loss. He’s very useful as a spy against mobile quarterbacks, capable of chasing them anywhere they go on the field after they break out of the pocket.

His game against the pass is interesting. He didn’t have many opportunities in man coverage in college, but he looked good when he did, though I have my concerns against more complicated routes than the crossing and wheel routes I primarily saw him face. In zone coverage, however, he seemed far less certain, usually drifting around the line of scrimmage with no real depth and never picking up a receiver. I think he has the potential to develop here, but I haven’t seen enough to convince me he will, and for that reason I’d probably wait to grab him until the second round.

Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri

Bolton tested well in the forty yard dash, but otherwise he is a below average athlete, which shows up on the field as well. It’s unfortunate because he’s an incredibly smart player, and each game you can see several plays where he does everything right—reads the play, breaks on the ball, slices through traffic—but simply doesn’t have the range to make the tackle.

When the ball stays within his area, Bolton is a very good run defender. He sticks running backs in the hole, and he battles through contact to get to the ball. He sometimes gives up ground before meeting blockers, and on occasion will knife in too fast and miss a tackle, which puts him behind someone like Davis. But he’ll clean some of this up in the NFL and become a reliable middle linebacker on first and second down.

Does he have the ability to develop coverage skills to be an every-down player? I don’t really see it. His play recognition in the running game translates to the passing game, and occasionally he can make good tackles to bring down a running back or receiver after the catch simply by breaking well before the ball is thrown. But he’s never really in position to make a play on the pass, and I don’t think he has the athletic upside to ever be more than adequate as a pass defender, which would make me reluctant to draft him before the third round.