2021 Quarterback Prospects

Not all quarterback classes are created equal. The classes of 2004, 2012, 2017, and 2018 have shaped the NFL over the past two decades. The classes of 2007, 2010, and 2013 are better off not thought about at all. Some classes are loaded with talented players who will solve the most important position in sports for whoever selects them for the next decade. Other classes are just setting up quarterback-needy teams for disappointment.

2021 is clearly in the former group. There are three players here who could be categorized as almost sure things, with two more on top who could become quality starters. The upside past these five is slim, but there will be a few names called in the later rounds who go on to have long NFL careers as either backups or journeyman starters. I ended up looking at nine quarterbacks this year, the most I have ever done, and I almost all of them have a future of some sort in the NFL.

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

Lawrence has been the presumed number one pick since he was in high school, and it’s pretty obvious why. If you were to design a quarterback from scratch, it would probably look a lot like him. He stands tall in the pocket, and he has the arm strength to deliver balls with zip to any part of the field. He’s a good athlete capable of making plays outside the pocket, and with very good instincts for finding lanes as a runner.

Lawrence has all the tools of a superstar quarterback, but what makes him the top choice in this class is how far ahead he is mentally of almost any other college quarterback. His offense at Clemson didn’t put a lot on his shoulders, but when it did he almost always made the correct decision with the football. He knows how to manipulate coverages with his eyes, and he rarely gets fooled by movement in the secondary. There are still things he needs to work on, particularly blitz recognition and anticipation. He has a tendency to lead his receivers into nasty hits from defenders, which could be mitigated if he got the ball out of his hands a little faster.

Lawrence is such a clean prospect that it feels like I was watching him almost searching for nits to pick. He’s very good at moving in the pocket to avoid pressure and extend plays while keeping his base steady and his eyes downfield, but when he does get hit he has some ball security issues (I saw four fumbles across the three games I watched, two in the pocket and two as a runner). He’ll stand in against pressure in his face, but in games where he was pressured a lot he seemed to be a bit unsettled late in the game, reasonably so. And I guess he didn’t really make that many plays on the field that just blew me away, largely because he didn’t have to make these plays. When everything is working in structure, things can look far too easy.

There is one real criticism to make about Lawrence, one that keeps him from being the generational prospect he’s been hyped as and that could prevent him from being a truly elite option in the NFL. Among top quarterback prospects, his accuracy is merely average. Not only does he occasionally miss open receivers, even when he’s on target his ball placement can leave something to be desired, making catches more difficult for his receivers and limiting yards after catch opportunities. Accuracy is one of the tougher things to fix in the NFL, and this does give me some pause before declaring him a future MVP. Still, he’s the closest thing to a sure starter I’ve ever seen come out of the college level, and I wouldn’t hesitate at all to take him off the board first overall.

Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

Fields is the clear second choice at quarterback in this class, and he is far closer to number one than he is to number three. He didn’t have the consistency of Lawrence in college, but at his best he was clearly the better player, and he has the ability to reach that elite level of quarterback that I think Lawrence might fall short of. In a normal year he’d be an easy choice for the top player off the board, and whoever selects him this year is going to stumble into an incredible fortune.

Coming from the Atlanta area like Lawrence, Fields was always viewed as the dual-threat alternative to Lawrence’s pro-style template. This was a pretty dramatic oversimplification, both because Lawrence is a good athlete himself and because Fields is a pure pocket passer who just happens to run a 4.46 forty. His footwork in the pocket is very good, and he has a natural feel for moving to avoid pressure without losing his balance. And, when the play breaks down, he has the running ability to demolish a defense. He’s fast, and he’s strong, able to absorb direct contact in the pocket and stay on his feet to either break away on a long run or find a target down the field.

Accuracy is Lawrence’s biggest issue, and it is also Fields’s greatest strength. He does have a handful of egregious misses on his tape, but almost all of them come within five yards of the line of scrimmage. Sometimes he’ll fire the ball too fast on quick throws and sail it over his receiver’s head, and on checkdowns he can get sloppy with his footwork and throw off target. These issues can be fixed in the NFL, and even if they aren’t, they don’t bother me because past ten yards he is as accurate as any quarterback I’ve ever seen. Over the middle, to the sidelines, deep down the field, the ball is almost always exactly where it needs to be. He has the arm to make any throw, and he knows how to adjust his trajectory to allow his receivers time to come open.

The biggest criticism of Fields has been that he struggles processing defenses. This is the hardest part for me to analyze from where I sit, and it’s an area that I have very little confidence in scouting. (When I’ve missed on a quarterback it’s been because I overrate their processing abilities, notably with Mitch Trubisky and Josh Rosen.) But based on what I see, I don’t really think that’s an issue with Fields.

When he gets in trouble, it’s because he is constantly trying to make a big play down the field. He’ll stick on a deep receiver as the pocket collapses around him, and he threw a couple interceptions trying to get rid of a ball when he should have just eaten it for a sack. The amount of contact he takes is a little worrying too, as he dealt with nagging injuries during both his seasons as a college starter. There’s work to be done here, but that’s true of basically every young quarterback. And I’d rather have a quarterback who pushes boundaries that I can ease back, as opposed to someone complacent who has to learn to be aggressive. The development Fields still needs is enough to make me bump him down below Lawrence, but not enough for me to even consider any other player in this class.

Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

The top two quarterbacks this year have been superstar prospects since high school, and they were unanimously the top options until Wilson decided to crash the party this year. His performance his last year at BYU caused him to shoot up boards as every team looks for the next Patrick Mahomes, a strong-armed backyard style quarterback who can create offense all by himself. Wilson doesn’t have Mahomes’s arm, because no one except possibly Josh Allen does, but he’s the closest thing in this year’s draft. He can make some sensational throws down the field when he escapes the pocket, taking a play that looks like it’s dead and turning it into a 30 yard gain. 

Within structure however, Wilson falls far short of the top two quarterbacks in this class. When he has time to drop back into a clean pocket and pick receivers out down the field, he usually does a good job, making smart decisions and delivering on-time and accurate passes. His arm lets him fit balls into tight windows down the field, though his placement against tight coverage sometimes makes it a little too easy for defenders to make plays on the ball. Wilson can be really good in a scheme that leans heavily on play-action to get him a clean pocket and give him time to get back into his drop.

Wilson isn’t very good on quick-hitting timing routes. He’s going to need to work a lot on his footwork if he’s going to play in an offense that incorporates these throws, as the ball has a tendency to come out off-target and give his receivers little opportunity to run after the catch. Everything he fires is a line-drive as well, which makes life tougher for his receivers and gives underneath defenders opportunities to make plays on the ball.

Wilson’s greatest strength is his ability to scramble around and make plays outside of structure, but it can also be his greatest weakness. While the top two quarterbacks extend plays with subtle moves in the pocket, Wilson is always looking to escape. His footwork breaks down when he’s forced off his spot in the pocket, and he misses throws down the field that should be routine. And at times he is too fast looking for a way out of the pocket, running into more trouble and leading to huge losses.

It will take some time for Wilson to round into shape in the NFL, but with good coaching and the right situation he can become a very good starter. It will be a fine line to walk to restrain his wilder tendencies behind the line without hobbling his game-changing ability. There’s definitely a risk he flops completely if he ends up on a team that can’t keep him clean in the pocket long enough for stuff to develop down the field, but the upside is still worth taking a shot on him in the top ten.

Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State

I don’t know if we have ever seen a quarterback come into the league less prepared than Lance. I know that I personally haven’t studied any, and it startles me that people around the league seem so casual about this. Lance has one season as a starter under his belt at a lower level of football, and people are looking at him as a potential top five pick who could be starting an NFL game as early as September.

Lance’s lack of experience is his biggest red flag, and also his most alluring feature. Because any criticism you make of his tape can be written off by saying, “He was 19 years old in his first season as a starter.” He’s still only 20, the youngest of the top quarterbacks in the class, and there’s an argument to be made he’s the most physically talented as well. He has a cannon for an arm that can launch the ball 60 yards with ease, and while he may not have game-breaking speed, his physicality and instincts make him a threat as a runner on every play. Right now he is whatever you can imagine him becoming, and every coach in the league wants a chance to mold someone like this.

As a player on the field, he shows only occasional flashes of what he can be. He delivers towering deep balls that look gorgeous in the air and occasionally drop right into the bucket, giving him highlights that leave many fans drooling. Of course, these highlights leave out the three or four other deep balls he throws each game that end up nowhere near their target. He can stand in with pressure in his face and deliver lasers into tight coverage over the middle. He can also miss a pocket closing around him or get caught up dropping his eyes too quickly. In general he faced very little pressure in college, and I didn’t really see him make any of the plays outside of structure that his physical tools suggest he might be capable of.

Lance is the least accurate of the top quarterbacks in the draft, and that is something that I think will really hold him back in the NFL. The best thing I can say is that when he misses his target, the ball is far enough off that there aren’t even defenders in position to make a play on it. He was remarkably good at avoiding interceptions in college, and in general he seems to have an advanced understanding of the game relative to his limited experience on the field. Of course this comes with the caveat that things were pretty simple at North Dakota State, both the offense he was running and the defenses he was facing.

Right now Lance is not a quarterback I would want to start an NFL game. But the question isn’t what he is, it’s what he’s going to become. It’s easy to talk ourselves into him as the next Josh Allen, though I think Allen was farther along when he came out of Wyoming. There’s certainly potential here for him to develop into an MVP caliber quarterback, and there’s also potential for him to be tossed aside after two or three disastrous seasons.

That last piece is the interesting twist with Lance. Because as much hate as busts at the quarterback position receive, I’m not sure they’re that catastrophic a mistake. In 2014 the Jacksonville Jaguars and Cleveland Browns both took first round busts in Blake Bortles and Johnny Manziel. Seven years later the Browns have Baker Mayfield and are coming off a playoff win, and the Jaguars are in position to grab Lawrence. Meanwhile, in 2014 the Raiders also selected Derek Carr. Seven years later, they still have Carr at quarterback, unsure whether or not he’s a long-term solution at the position. If you take Lance and miss, you’ll lose a couple of years. But you will have another shot to get a true game-changer at the position, which may be better than coasting on quarterback mediocrity for a decade.

Mac Jones, QB, Alabama

It’s been a while since we’ve seen a quarterback come into the league and find success without being at least an average athlete. The last was probably Jared Goff, depending on your definition of “success”, and before that you’d have to go to Jameis Winston, Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, and Andy Dalton. Basically a long list of “good enough to start, but not much better than that” options. The last truly great quarterback to enter the league as solely a pocket passer was probably Matt Ryan.

Quarterbacks have to be able to create outside of structure these days. Offensive line play hasn’t kept up with improvements to pass rush, and while a quarterback like Jones can be a good starter if given excellent protection, things fall apart fairly quickly once he’s forced out of rhythm. He has a good feel for pressure and where to slide in the pocket, but his footwork needs a lot of work. He loses his balance pretty quickly, and once that happens his arm talent is only occasionally enough to save him. He has even more trouble when he escapes the pocket. He doesn’t throw well on the run, and his only option is to dump the ball to a nearby target because he can’t hit anything farther downfield.

Jones is smart enough to progress through multiple reads, but his feet don’t keep up with his mind, and he struggles to actually deliver the ball when he gets deep in his progression. The offense around him at Alabama was built to minimize how much he had to do this, with a very deep stable of skill position players to keep the defense off balance. He won’t have the same talent advantage at the NFL level, and he’ll struggle when he can’t reliably count on his first read being schemed open.

The biggest issue I’ve discussed so far is his footwork, and that is something that can be fixed with more practice. His lack of natural athleticism will make this harder, but with enough drilling and repetition he can fix this part of his game. If that comes together, he has the other tools to be a successful quarterback. He has a strong arm and good instincts, and he generally makes good decisions with the football. I think he can become an average NFL starter, with the upside to put up some top-ten production if he’s surrounded by enough talent.

Jones is the opposite side of the equation from Lance. He has very high Derek Carr potential, as a quarterback who can start in the NFL but will never leave his team truly satisfied with what they have at the position. So picking between these two is a difficult challenge. If it was a simple binary between starter/bust, Jones would be the clear pick. But the upside of Lance, as well as the better odds of getting another swing in four or five years, makes me think he would be the better selection for most teams.

Kyle Trask, QB, Florida

Trask is going to give you what you give him. He’s not a quarterback who is going to create offense on his own. He isn’t a great athlete, and he won’t produce on the ground more than an occasional scramble. His arm is below average, and it particularly shows when he’s forced off his platform, as his balls tend to flutter and rarely comes in on target. He doesn’t go deep in his reads, and when the defense take his main options away, he has a tendency to panic and can fling the ball into congested areas. 

So what does he do well? When he has a clean pocket around him and can run within the expected timing of the play, the ball typically comes out on time and on target. He has particularly good touch down the sidelines, where he places catchable balls with clever trajectories to give his receivers the best chance of making a play. He’s smart about identifying matchup advantages prior to the snap and will let his playmakers make plays, which worked to his advantage on a Florida roster loaded with talented weapons. He’s not afraid of pressure either, sometimes to his detriment as he stands tall in the pocket and absorbs a lot of contact.

All this adds up to a quarterback with a future as a backup or a journeyman spot starter. He can hold down the fort for a couple games if you need him to, and if he’s put in an offense with good protection, talented receivers, and clever play designs, he can probably perform at the level of an average starter. Your mileage may vary on the value of this sort of player, but with no real upside of becoming a starting quarterback solution, I wouldn’t think about taking him until at least the fourth round.

Kellen Mond, QB, Texas A&M

Trask is the best option if you want a pure backup, but there are a few other choices if a team wants to take on a project with a chance of turning into a starter at some point down the road. I don’t think any of these next three have that much of a chance of success, which is why I am evaluating them mostly based on the chances of becoming a good backup. But their physical tools are ahead of Trask’s, and that gives them some potential upside.

Mond is at the top of this group, partially because he’s the safest option and partially because he’s also the youngest. He has good size and a strong arm, and he has room to continue to grow in a professional setting. He is capable of some very nice throws down the field, both hitting tight windows with firm passes and lofting balls with good touch to keep defenders from being able to make a play. He’s very good at avoiding negative plays, as he rarely puts the ball in harm’s way and almost never takes sacks.

The biggest thing Mond is going to have to learn is to trust himself. He doesn’t make many negative plays, but he also doesn’t make many positive ones either. He seems to have an internal clock in his head that runs independently of anything happening on the field. Even if he isn’t facing pressure, he goes to his checkdown as soon as he sees his initial one or two reads aren’t available. And if he isn’t checking down, he’s in a hurry to take off and run. His platform breaks down in the pocket quickly, and while he has the arm to make some difficult throws, he misses too many to get by without better fundamentals.

Athletically Mond is a bit of a puzzle. He was a heavy usage runner in college, if not a particularly productive one. When he gets into the open field he can build up decent speed, and he moves functionally well behind the line of scrimmage and can make some typical throws on the run. But when he has to make smaller movements he seems stiff, which contributes to the footwork issues I discussed above. I’m not sure how useful his legs will be on a field filled with NFL athletes, and this will be a limiting factor on whatever upside he does have.

Davis Mills, QB, Stanford

Mills is another quarterback who is almost certainly just a backup, but he has just enough going for him that I can talk myself into a scenario where he becomes an almost average starter. He isn’t an athlete, and his arm strength is borderline, but he is already advanced as a pocket passer in a way that would make it easy to build a functional offense around him. He moves well in the pocket, rarely playing out of balance, and he is never flustered by pressure, willing to stand tall and fire balls down the field with defenders coming straight at him.

The best thing Mills has going is his anticipation. He is excellent at getting the ball out of his hands on timing routes, identifying where to go with the ball and throwing it before the targeted receiver is even out of his break. He has issues when he’s asked to make more complex reads with multiple potential receivers, and that’s the one area he is really going to have to improve when he gets to the NFL. A few years sitting as a backup and watching the thought processes of a more experienced quarterback could fill in these gaps and allow him to extend his intelligence to a more complex passing attack.

The other concern I have with him is accuracy. He can make some pinpoint throws down the field, but he also has moments of bizarre inaccuracy, where the ball comes out so far off target that it isn’t clear who he was even trying to throw to. Even more concerning, he struggles with placement on throws underneath. His receivers are rarely able to catch the ball without breaking stride, and he leaves a lot of yard after catch opportunities on the field. This is an issue that I think will be more difficult to fix, and it’s the one that really puts a ceiling on what he can become.

Jamie Newman, QB, Wake Forest

Newman certainly has the physical tools to be a starting NFL quarterback. In fact there was a time he was considered a dark horse candidate to be a first round pick, if he had gone through with his transfer to Georgia and had impressed there with better surroundings than he had at Wake Forest. But he elected to opt out of the season, and the most recent tape we have of him is from 2019, when he looked like he was nowhere close to being ready to step onto an NFL field. As much physical talent as he has, he is already 23 years old and has shown no indication of being even a capable backup to this point, and I probably wouldn’t even bother spending a draft pick on him.

Newman is a good athlete who can contribute as part of a designed rushing attack. He has the speed to beat defenders to the edge and the strength to pound the ball into the box. His arm generates impressive velocity as well, though when he really winds up it tends to make his accuracy disappear. These are tools that will intrigue at least some NFL coaches, and I expect he’ll be drafted as a project by someone, even if I don’t think his physical abilities are extraordinary enough to justify the time and effort.

Mentally Newman is a long way away from being ready to play in the NFL. He’s very much a one read quarterback, and even when that first option isn’t there he often still tries to force the ball in. He doesn’t throw with anticipation and waits to make sure the receiver breaks where he expects. This only exacerbates his issue with recognizing underneath defenders. Unlike some of the quarterbacks above, when he makes a mistake it often ends up in the hands of a defender, either letting a linebacker cut underneath or letting a cornerback make a play on an underthrown deep ball. If he sees a field anytime soon, it will be a disaster, and I’m not sure the slim chance he takes a giant leap forward is worth holding a roster spot for him.