2021 Mock Draft: Reality

Yesterday I laid out how the draft would play out if I was in charge of making all the picks. But once again, the NFL elected not to trust me with this responsibility. So today I’ll try to predict what will actually happen.

The real draft will likely see some trades, though it’s become harder in recent years to find two willing teams at the top of the draft. And I’ve always felt that trades make mock drafts less fun, so I’m going to pretend that trading picks isn’t allowed (aside from the ones that have already been traded).

1) Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

There’s not much left to say on this one. It would be one of the most dramatic upsets in recent memory if anyone other than Lawrence ended up going with this pick. The Jaguars will take him, and they will happily have their quarterback for the next decade.

2) New York Jets – Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

I’m not sure how talent evaluators can watch the quarterbacks in this year’s draft and come away with Wilson ranked ahead of Justin Fields, but it sounds almost certain that the Jets have done just this. Wilson can certainly do some interesting things, especially when he escapes the pocket and launches the ball down the field on the run. In terms of being a well-rounded quarterback, he has a ways to go. But it’s not like the Jets are in a position to be making a run anytime soon.

3) San Francisco 49ers – Mac Jones, QB, Alabama

This has been the most talked about pick since San Francisco decided to leap up from number 12. It’s clear based on what they paid that they’re going for a quarterback, but so far no one seems to agree which of the three remaining options they play to select. There has been so much smoke blown back and forth around this selection, but the loudest and most consistent voices seem to all be pointing at Jones for some reason.

4) Atlanta Falcons – Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

Here is where things get really interesting. I could see the Falcons trying to grab their quarterback of the future here, or snagging a top wide receiver, or even adding another first round pick to their offensive line. But I think Pitts is the best fit for what they are going to want to do in Arthur Smith’s offense. It’s almost unheard of for a tight end to go this high, but it’s also unheard of for a tight end to have as much talent as Pitts. He’s basically a wide receiver who just happens to be big and physical enough to pose consistent matchup problems as an in-line tight end as well.

5) Cincinnati Bengals – Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU

The Bengals have been linked to an offensive lineman ever since Joe Burrow went down last season. And yet, it seems that things are pointing towards them not using their top pick to add to his protection. They still like Jonah Williams, their first pick in 2019, and they added Riley Reiff as a free agent. And I don’t think Burrow will be too upset at adding his top target from his last year at LSU, the almost unanimous highest ranked wide receiver in this draft class (though I personally have Devonta Smith higher).

6) Miami Dolphins – Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama

The Dolphins were probably assuming they would still have a shot at either Pitts or Chase when they moved to this spot a month ago, but with them off the board they’ll have to settle for the next offensive weapon on their list. The first year from Tua Tagovailoa was a bit rocky, but he’ll be helped by adding one of his former teammates as well. Waddle possesses game breaking speed that will open up Miami’s offense and make life easier for everyone else on the unit.

7) Detroit Lions – Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon

The Lions basically need everything, so I expect they’ll take the best player left on the board. With the run on offensive weapons above them, Sewell is the clear choice. He says that he’s been practicing on both sides of the line in the leadup to the draft, and with the Lions I expect he’ll at least start on the right side, giving Jared Goff a pair of quality book-end tackles with Sewell opposite Taylor Decker.

8) Carolina Panthers – Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

This is the kind of tricky part of doing a mock draft without trades. I expect all five quarterbacks will go in the top ten, if not to one of these next two teams then to someone trading up in response. And even if there isn’t a trade, I can see the Panthers deciding to pull the trigger if Fields is available to them. They traded for Sam Darnold, but I doubt they’re putting all their eggs for the next two years in that basket. If they are, they could conceivably try to bolster their offensive line with Rashawn Slater here. But I have a feeling this eighth pick will be used on a quarterback, whoever that ends up being.

9) Denver Broncos – Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State

Similarly, I’m not convinced the Broncos are ready to go after a quarterback just yet. They probably should with Drew Lock looking pretty much useless to this point, and Lance would seem to fit after they have likely been kicking themselves all offseason for passing on Josh Allen three years ago. Lance isn’t ready to step onto an NFL field right away, which will give them time to see if they might have something in Lock. They don’t, and Lance will make it out there before he’s ready, but it’s a worthwhile thought nonetheless.

10) Dallas Cowboys – Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina

With the tenth pick, we finally get the first defensive player off the board. I expect the first defender taken will be a cornerback, either Horn or Patrick Surtain Jr. Based on recent Cowboys cornerback selections Byron Jones and Trevon Diggs, I think the physical, athletic Horn better fits what they’re looking for at the position than the more polished Surtain.

11) New York Giants – Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama

Smith’s slide on draft boards is puzzling to me. He has length, speed, route running skills, leaping ability, and excellent hands. Basically everything you could want from a wide receiver, that just so happens to come in a slightly skinny frame. At this point anyone could fall in love like I have and decide to grab him. In this case I’m pairing him with the Giants, a team that improved their receiving corps by handing a massive contract to Kenny Golladay but still would benefit from adding a true top option on the outside.

12) Philadelphia Eagles – Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern

Carson Wentz was really bad last year, but he wasn’t helped by an offensive line that has disintegrated in front of him over the past couple years. Jason Kelce is still really good, and so is Lane Johnson when he can make it onto the field. Andre Dillard will be returning after missing 2019, but they will likely still want to bolster their front to help out Jalen Hurts. Slater is excellent value at this draft slot, and he can slide in either as a starting tackle or as a guard if they still like what Dillard is showing them.

13) Los Angeles Chargers – Patrick Surtain Jr, CB, Alabama

The Chargers secondary was big on flashy names entering 2020, then fell to pieces, unsurprising given the age of some of the players they were relying on. They need fresh energy on the back end, and if one of the top two cornerbacks is available to them here, I think they’ll jump all over it. Cornerback is always the hardest position to transition from college to pros, but Surtain has the polish to at least have some contribution his first year.

14) Minnesota Vikings – Jaelan Phillips, EDGE, Miami

The Vikings are in a bit of no-man’s land here. Too low to get one of the top two offensive linemen, too high to take anyone from the next tier. I could see them trading out of this spot, either trying to jump up to grab Slater or sliding down to take someone like Alijah Vera-Tucker or Christian Darrisaw. If they stay put though, there’s a decent chance they decide to address the front on the other side of the ball instead. Phillips seems to have emerged as the top rated pass rusher in this class, and while I like the versatility of someone like Kwity Paye more, there’s no looking past the length and speed that Phillips possesses.

15) New England Patriots – Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State

Parsons is a player that is a little challenging to place. I could see someone getting really enamored with his combination of size and speed and taking him in the top ten. Or I could see teams avoiding a linebacker who still needs to grow in coverage and leaving him to slide out of the top twenty. New England seems like a good fit for him though. Bill Belichick loves versatile linebackers, and Parsons would be an excellent fit as a run defender and situational pass rusher.

16) Arizona Cardinals – Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota

There are reports that the Cardinals are trying to jump into the top ten to grab a wide receiver, and I don’t think being stuck at sixteen will stop them from taking one here. Bateman seems to have settled as the top option among the second tier of receivers, and I think he’d fit well in Arizona alongside DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk. I have some concerns about how the Cardinals use the receivers in their offense, but they’ve consistently worked to try to add talent at that position to allow them to spread the field as often as possible.

17) Las Vegas Raiders – Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama

I think Barmore will end up going higher than people expect, and higher than he deserves. The defensive tackle class is so thin this year that someone is going to jump on the opportunity to grab the one player with some potential upside. The Raiders make sense, as a team that tends to grab players higher than expected and one that released starting defensive tackle Maurice Hurst just a couple weeks ago.

18) Miami Dolphins – Jayson Oweh, EDGE, Penn State

One of the advantages of having a ton of first round selections is that you can afford to miss on a couple, which means you can take chances on players with high bust potential. Oweh is the best pure athlete at any position in this class, and he partners that with basically no pass rushing skill. If he develops his game in the NFL, he has the potential to give Miami a true game-changing pass rush threat. If he doesn’t, well they have plenty of other talent on their roster to fall back on.

19) Washington Football Team – Alijah Vera-Tucker, OT/OG, USC

Washington’s defense elevated their play down the stretch to carry them to the playoffs in 2020, and now they need to figure out how to get something going on offense. They’re a team with a potential to trade up for a quarterback or wide receiver, but there isn’t really a good option at either position available at this point. Instead they’ll bolster their offensive line with Vera-Tucker, an excellent athlete with experience at both guard and tackle. He’ll make it easier when they likely lose Brandon Scherff after this offseason and give them some continuity to try to rebuild their line around.

20) Chicago Bears – Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan

The Bears are basically in an identical position to Washington, just with more holes to fill on the defensive side. They could grab an offensive lineman as well, but I think they end up addressing the defensive side if they stay at this spot. They could draft someone in their secondary, or they could try to improve their pass rush. Paye would be an excellent secondary edge threat across from Khalil Mack, with the ability to develop into a top option when they eventually move on from their star.

21) Indianapolis Colts – Greg Newsome, CB, Northwestern

Here’s one of those convenient spots where my two mock drafts line up. Newsome feels like a perfect fit for Indianapolis, adding some youth to the back end of a defense that likely can’t lean on Xavier Rhodes for much longer. Newsome has a lot of potential, but there are concerns about injuries and about his tendency to grab opposing wide receivers. I can’t possibly think of a better replacement for Rhodes.

22) Tennessee Titans – Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech

Farley is my favorite cornerback in the draft, with movement skills none of the others can match. He also has a troubling injury history and very little experience actually playing cornerback. Getting him at this spot feels about right then, for a player with stellar upside and very real potential to bust.

23) New York Jets – Jeremiah Owusu-Koromah, LB/CB/S, Notre Dame

I could see Owusu-Koromoah going a lot higher than this. He’s the sort of playmaking, game-wrecking force that a defensive coach could very easily fall in love with. He’s also a bit of a positionless questionmark, which makes him hard to really pin down. I could see someone like the Chargers, Vikings, or Patriots leaping on him, but pairing him with first year coach Robert Saleh in New York seems like a good outcome for everyone involved.

24) Pittsburgh Steelers – Najee Harris, RB, Alabama

At this point in the draft I don’t think I’ve ever seen a player and a team linked more than the Steelers and Harris. It wouldn’t be a smart decision, as their running game has far bigger issues on the offensive line than it does at running back. But Harris is the sort of player who can contribute immediately as both a runner and a receiver, and this will appeal to a team that optimistically has one more year of quality quarterback play before having to start their offense over from the ground up.

25) Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU

The Jaguars could decide to use this pick to add some help to Lawrence on offense. But I think they feel good with what they have at wide receiver and on the offensive line, even if a player like Christian Darrisaw would probably make sense. So instead I have them grabbing someone to bolster their secondary. Moehrig is an excellent athlete who will be best playing in a deep zone where his speed can keep teams from being able to beat the Jaguars defense over the top.

26) Cleveland Browns – Jamin Davis, LB, Kentucky

Davis is a player I think will end up sneaking into the first round, deservedly so. He’s a dominant run defender with the athleticism to develop in pass coverage, and he’ll fit perfectly on a Browns defense that is still trying to fill out role players around a couple of stars. I could also see Cleveland trying to add more receiving talent to their offense, but I’m not sure who they would take at this point.

27) Baltimore Ravens – Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech

Darrisaw slides farther than he probably should in this mock draft, and he falls right into the lap of the Ravens. They just traded away Orlando Brown, and even though they are reportedly going to sign a free agent, I think they’ll jump at the opportunity to get a younger player on the outside. The biggest difference in Baltimore’s offense from 2019 to 2020 was the performance of their line, and rebuilding an elite unit in front of Lamar Jackson is pretty much essential.

28) New Orleans Saints – Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue

This is a bit of a stretch for Moore, but he’s the sort of player I could see Sean Payton really being excited about. He’s extremely raw as a receiver, and his injury history is a nightmare. But his quickness with the ball in his hands is off the chart, and he’d be yet another matchup headache for defenses trying to contain the Saints offense.

29) Green Bay Packers – Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State

I think the Packers really want to go receiver here, but with the players who went off the board above there isn’t really a good fit. Terrace Marshall would seem to make sense, but I’ve seen reports that he has medical concerns that may push him out of the first round. I'm also tempted to put Elijah Moore here, as I've heard he's really liked by some teams. But instead I have the Packers trying to help Aaron Rodgers another way, by bolstering his protection up front. Jenkins is a better run blocker than he is as a pass blocker, but he might fit well as a guard at least to start his career.

30) Buffalo Bills – Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami

Rousseau has fallen hard since he was considered a potential top ten pick early in the process, and most forecasters now have him pegged as a second day player. I have a sneaking suspicion he’ll find his way into the end of the first round though. Someone will look at his physical strengths and ignore his weaknesses, and Buffalo seems like a team with preferences that could align with what Rousseau does.

31) Baltimore Ravens – Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia

Baltimore could go a lot of different ways with their second selection. Over the past few years they’ve made their secondary the priority of their defense, and there are a few cornerback prospects who would make sense here. Eric Stokes is the track star who can run with any receiver. Asante Samuel Jr is the intelligent technician who lacks the traditional size and athleticism of a star cornerback. Campbell is somewhere in the middle, a good athlete whose biggest issue is playing the ball when it’s in the air.

32) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Joseph Ossai, EDGE, Texas

A pass rusher makes a lot of sense for Tampa Bay, with Jason Pierre-Paul being 32 years old and entering the final year of his contract. This pick will likely come down to Ossai or Azeez Ojulari, and I think Tampa Bay would end up preferring the more athletic, if less polished, Ossai.