Running back is a fun position to evaluate, but it isn’t particularly meaningful. One or two of these players might go in the first round, but they shouldn’t. The other players on this list will go in the middle rounds and will have the chance to contribute right away. You draft running backs for what they can do right now, not what they might become in the future.
Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
For a running back to be worth a first round pick, he needs to be the sort of player who can work in any scheme. You can’t win by designing your offense around a specific running back, but having someone versatile enough to plug into whatever scheme works best for the rest of the offense is certainly valuable. Unfortunately, Harris is not that guy. He can be very good in a downhill rushing attack behind a powerful offensive line, but any sort of zone scheme that relies on sharp cuts or lateral movement is going to run into trouble with him. So even though he is comfortably the best pure runner in this draft, I can’t justify taking him before the second round.
Trying to tackle Harris just seems exhausting. It isn’t just that he’ll lower his shoulder and pound defenders into the ground, though he certainly does plenty of that. He also is very good at bouncing off indirect contact and using his arm to shield himself to keep tacklers at bay. He has a very thick lower body, and it is almost impossible for a defender to get his arms around him. His balance is remarkable as well, and he absorbs most contact as if it isn’t there.
Harris isn’t going to run away from people at the second level, but he has enough burst to be effective in short areas, and he’s very good at grinding out an extra five to ten yards once he reaches the second level. His ability as a receiver makes this useful as well. He shows some promise as a route runner, and he’s very good at transitioning from a receiver to a runner. It’s certainly good that he’s useful as a receiver, because otherwise he’d be a complete non-factor in the passing game. He’s a poor pass protector, and at least early in his career he will need to spend most of his time leaking out of the backfield rather than trying to pick up blitzes.
Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
Almost everything I said about Harris can also be said about Etienne. Ultimately the difference between the two probably comes down to personal preference. Do you want the between the tackles hammer who is impossible to bring down, or the lightning bolt that can run away from anyone? Etienne is fast, both with his initial burst and when he separates at the second level. He slices through holes on the interior faster than the defense can be ready for him, and he can outrun the entire defense to the edge when there’s nothing there in the middle.
His usefulness in the passing game is comparable to Harris’s as well. He’s nothing exceptional as a route runner, but he’s good enough to find open space underneath as a checkdown option. And when the ball does come to him, he has good hands to receive the pass and turn instantly into a runner. He’s a liability in pass protection as well, and early in his career he’ll likely have to come off the field in clear passing situations.
I have Harris ranked above him mostly because I think Etienne needs more help around him. Harris can create when there is nothing there, dragging tacklers for a couple of yards to turn a negative play into something of a positive. Etienne doesn’t always go down on first contact, but more often than not if a tackler can catch him, he can bring him down. He isn’t particularly shifty in tight spaces, and he’s not going to leave defenders flailing at air behind him. If he has a line that can open things up to get him to the second level, he’s capable of taking any play to the house. But if he’s contained, he’s the sort of running back who can spend an entire game stuck in the backfield.
Michael Carter, RB, North Carolina
Carter is what you’d get if you took every trait Harris doesn’t have and turned it into a running back. He doesn’t have much power in him, and even glancing contact is usually enough to drag him down. But getting that contact is a challenge, since he is shifty in space and has excellent vision. He does a great job finding cutback lanes and accelerating upfield, and when he gets to the second level he has the speed to pull away from the entire defense.
Carter is a solid route runner who is occasionally let down by shaky hands. If he can become more consistent catching the ball, he will be a very dangerous weapon coming out of the backfield. Even if he doesn’t, he will still be an asset in the passing game thanks to his tremendous skill as a pass blocker. Despite his small size he is able of laying devastating blocks on blitzing linebackers, stepping up to meet them in the lane and stopping them dead in their tracks to keep the quarterback clean behind him.
There are better pure runners to be found farther down this list, but Carter’s ability to slide immediately into an NFL offense is what makes him the ideal third round running back pick. He isn’t a sensational athlete that is going to leave defenders on the field flummoxed as he runs away from them, but he has enough speed and quickness to be an average NFL starting running back for the next five years, with the bonus of the tools he brings in the passing game.
Javonte Williams, RB, North Carolina
If Carter is the complement of Harris, then his teammate Williams is the complement of Etienne. Williams really isn’t the sort of running back who is going to run away from people. It takes him a while to get up to full speed, and even then he isn’t moving all that fast. What he is going to do is smack the defense in the face. He’s nearly as physical as Harris, and almost as slippery as well, letting arm tackles slide down his body and churning ahead so he always gets at least a couple yards after initial contact.
I don’t know what this North Carolina team is doing to teach their running backs pass protection, but I would like to see a whole lot more of it. Williams may not be as consistent as Carter in picking up pass rushers, but more often than not he does his job. And when he gets one really good, his size and physicality allows him to just demolish incoming linebackers, planting them into the ground on their backs.
Like Carter, Williams will be a good selection in the third round for a team looking for an immediate contributor and not necessarily huge long-term upside. He’s very good in short yardage situations, and his skills in pass protection would make him a good part of a rotation with another back who isn’t as useful in passing situations. He doesn’t have the route running skills of Carter, but his hands are excellent, and he’s very dangerous on vertical routes where he can get up to full speed in the second level before the ball reaches him.
Trey Sermon, RB, Ohio State
Sermon can be an effective running back in a very specific set of circumstances. He isn’t the sort of back who is going to make people miss in space, or bowl over tacklers for extra yards. He isn’t even really the sort of back who is going to run away from people, though his speed is probably his greatest strength. Mostly he’s going to read the blocks in front of him, wait for a hole to get open, and then run straight forward until someone gets in his way again.
This makes Sermon the perfect running back for a zone blocking scheme, and not much else. This is fine for a running back who is likely to go in the fourth round. The team that drafts him will hopefully have a good plan in place for how to use him for the next two or three years, and after that he can find his way bouncing around between teams that want to run a scheme that fits his talents. He has the vision needed to be a good zone running back, and he gets up to top speed very quickly once he makes his cut towards the hole.
I’ll be interested to see how he develops in the passing game going forward. He wasn’t used much as a receiver at Ohio State his senior year, but if you go back to his first couple years at Oklahoma he put up some minor receiving production. He has the skills to be effective here, and I feel like it was more a case of usage that held him back. He’s still developing as a pass protector, and I think he’ll eventually reach the point of being serviceable there as well, to have a decent career as a back drifting around the league for teams that want his specific skillset.
Chuba Hubbard, RB, Oklahoma State
Hubbard is probably the most technically advanced of all the running backs in this class, which explains how he was able to put up over 2000 yards rushing in 2019 despite limited physical tools. He’s smart and patient in the backfield, and he has very good vision, reading both the line right in front of him and the defenders on the second level. If there’s a hole, he’s going to find it. And behind a good offensive line, he can probably be a perfectly serviceable running back.
Hubbard just doesn’t do anything impressive physically. He doesn’t explode through the hole, and while his speed at the second level was enough to generate big plays in college, I expect he’ll get run down more often than not in the NFL. He doesn’t make people miss in space, and while he is good at falling forward after contact, he doesn’t have the strength or the balance to actually break away from tackles.
Hubbard offers next to nothing as a receiver, but he’s effective enough in protection to at least be on the field on passing plays. He isn’t going to physically overwhelm rushers, but he does a good job chipping edge rushers or lending support to interior gaps as needed. If a team just needs to plug a roster hole for a couple years until something better comes along, he’s probably worth selecting in the fifth round, though I feel like you could probably find someone just as capable by taking two or three swings at the undrafted free agent market.
Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Memphis
If I step back I can see why some people really love Gainwell as a sleeper in this draft. If you want a running back who can step in and contribute as a receiver, this is your guy. In one of the games I watched he had over 200 yards receiving, much of it coming split out as a wide receiver. He’s capable of winning separation running vertically down the field, and he adjusts well to the ball in the air, though I do have some concerns about him consistently completing the catch.
The problem is, Gainwell does pretty much nothing for me as a runner. He has good speed but nothing elite. He can occasionally drive forward for a couple extra yards, but the first guy almost always brings him down. He doesn’t make people miss in space, and in the backfield his vision is poor, leading him to occasionally run right into blockers. Some of these are skills that can be developed in the NFL, and he really only has one year of college experience under his belt. But right now he isn’t someone I would trust to hand the ball off to.
So what do you do with a player like this? There are uses of having a running back who can split out at wide receiver, but only if the defense respects him as a rushing threat and changes their personnel on the field as a result. Otherwise he’s just a mediocre wide receiver, usually outmatched by the cornerbacks and safeties assigned to cover him. A very clever coach can likely scheme up opportunities for him, but he doesn’t have the sort of physical ability to justify an offense being catered to him. He might be worth a flyer in the fifth round, in case he does develop the running skills to make his receiving abilities actually useful. But I think on the whole he is someone who is going to struggle to find his way onto an NFL field.
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