2021 NFL Draft In Depth

The first round of the NFL Draft was last night, and before things move on to day two, I figured I’d take a deeper dive into some of what we saw.

For more on any of these players, click these links.
Wide Receivers
Cornerbacks
Linebackers and Safeties
Running Backs
Offensive Linemen
Defensive Tackles
Edge Defenders
Quarterbacks

The Quarterback Fits

The biggest stories of the first half of draft night were the quarterbacks. For only the third time in NFL history the first three selections were all quarterbacks, and two more went in the top fifteen. Jacksonville, the Jets, San Francisco, Chicago, and New England all grabbed players they hope will be the foundations of their franchises for years to come.

I broke down all these quarterbacks prior to the draft, and you can find more details if you want by clicking one of the links above. But as a quick refresher, my top quarterback was Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence, followed closely by Chicago’s Justin Fields. After that I thought there was a decent drop to New York’s Zach Wilson, though he is still a very good prospect. I was less bullish on San Francisco’s Trey Lance and New England’s Mac Jones for very different reasons, but I still thought each was deserving of being a first round selection.

Of course, as we’ve seen in the past, pure talent isn’t the only deciding factor in a quarterback’s career. Situation goes a long way towards deciding how a quarterback turns out. So now that we know where each of these quarterbacks is going, what do their destinations tell us about projecting the paths of their careers?

We’ll start in the obvious place, with Lawrence in Jacksonville. In terms of supporting offensive cast, the Jaguars are actually in a surprisingly good position for a team selecting first overall. DJ Chark has shown flashes of being a legitimate number one receiving option, and hopefully he’ll be able to stay healthier in 2021 than he was in 2020. Toss in Marvin Jones, Laviska Shenault, Phillip Dorsett, and Tyler Eiffert, and the Jaguars have a fairly deep and very diverse set of receiving options. They can attack down the field, they can use designed plays to get the ball out of their quarterback’s hands quickly, and they have security blankets if the play breaks down. I didn’t love the selection of Travis Etienne later in the first round, but he does bring more receiving ability and a familiarity with Lawrence.

The coaching staff is a bit of a question mark. I didn’t think much of the Urban Meyer hiring, and while I like Darrell Bevell as an offensive coordinator, I’m still unclear who will really be calling the shots on offense. Meyer and Bevell have run very different offensive systems in the past, and the combination of the two of them could either lead to something unique and innovative or to a mismatched scheme that doesn’t really have any coherent plan.

Meyer struggled in college when trying to run an offense with a quarterback who wasn’t a running threat, and while Lawrence is a good runner, I don’t think the Jaguars will want him pounding it between the tackles fifteen times a game. Bevell on the other hand has typically run a system that leans heavily on the running game with the quarterback under center and attacks down the field rather than with quick passes on the outside, which will be a large adjustment for Lawrence coming from a spread-out, quick-hitting passing game at Clemson. He has the skills and the intelligence to work in any scheme, but it might take him more time to adjust than people are expecting.

The next two quarterbacks selected are headed to very similar offensive systems. Jets offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur spent the past four seasons as the passing game coordinator in San Francisco, and at least early on I expect him to run mostly the same stuff as Kyle Shanahan. The responsibilities given to both Wilson and Lance will be very similar, even though they are two quarterbacks coming from very different backgrounds and being paired with very different supporting casts.

Of all the quarterbacks selected this year, Lance is clearly headed to the best situation. The 49ers have a pair of talented young receivers in Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, plus one of the best tight ends in the league in George Kittle. They have a strong offensive line as well, and they are just a year removed from a Super Bowl run with Jimmy Garoppolo under center. Lance clearly has the potential to take this offense to the next level, even if I’m skeptical that he can do so right away.

I’m not a believer in letting quarterbacks learn from the bench. I think experience on the field and in practice is the best teacher, and the only way to get that is by making a rookie the starter as soon as possible. The 49ers will likely try to hold off on rushing Lance onto the field given how raw he is, but he will almost certainly make it out there sometime his rookie season.

I was maybe a bit harsh on San Francisco yesterday when I first broke down this pick. Lance is the riskiest selection in the draft, and trying to integrate him with a team ready to compete now could be an issue. But I do think there is a way to make it work. The offense he ran at North Dakota State is not dramatically different from what he’ll run in San Francisco, and he seemed to have an advanced understanding of that despite only one season as a starter.

The key to making Lance work right away will be to lean on his skills as a runner. This is a potentially tricky task, since much of Shanahan’s offense is built around the quarterback being under center, while quarterback runs are more effective from a shotgun setup. But North Dakota State ran a lot of their offense from under center as well, and the 49ers should be able to lift a lot of the concepts straight from there. And don’t forget, Shanahan was the offensive coordinator during Robert Griffin III’s stellar rookie season in Washington. This isn’t his first experience with a mobile quarterback, and he’ll find a way to tweak his scheme to take advantage of Lance’s rushing ability.

The Jets will require less changes to their offense for Wilson, but he’ll have to bear more responsibility with a weaker supporting cast around him. The scheme he’s going into will be a fairly easy transition from what he ran at BYU, just with more plays designed to get him outside the pocket where he is at his best.

The biggest concern will be how effectively the Jets can protect him when he stays in the pocket. Wilson did not handle pressure well at BYU, and he was fortunate that he was behind one of the best offensive lines in college football. The Jets have a couple of good young pieces up front in Mekhi Becton and Alijah Vera-Tucker, but right now they are both better as downhill run blockers than as pass protectors. If they can’t keep Wilson clean, he has a tendency to try to do too much to try to escape and make life more difficult for everyone on the offense.

Fields was the best value of the entire draft, and it’s unfortunate he’s headed to a destination where there is very little in place to help him succeed. The scheme in Chicago won’t be a dramatic departure from what he ran at Ohio State, and it can be set up to play to his strengths as a down the field passer. I haven’t been impressed by anything Matt Nagy has done since leaving Kansas City, but he has the opportunity here to work with a quarterback who is well suited to what he wants to do on offense.

The bigger issue is the supporting talent. Allen Robinson is a very good receiver, but past him there isn’t much on this offense to like. I guess Darnell Mooney showed some promise a year ago, but I’m not particularly excited about Anthony Miller or Cole Kmet as their other receiving options. Fields is another quarterback who will need some time to learn how to handle pressure, and Chicago’s offensive line isn’t a top tier unit by any means either.

Even more concerning is the current status of the coaching staff. Nagy is as close to a lame duck as you can get with an NFL head coach. If he doesn’t make the playoffs this year, it’s almost certain that he won’t be back. That will likely mean Fields will have to learn another new system in 2022, potentially slowing his development further.

It’s a situation reminiscent of the last Ohio State quarterback to go in the first round, Dwayne Haskins, who went to a Washington team coached by Jay Gruden clinging desperately to his job. Fields is a better prospect than Haskins, and it seems like the situation in Chicago is slightly more stable than it was in Washington, where Gruden was fundamentally opposed to bringing in a rookie quarterback and did basically nothing to prepare Haskins to play. But tumultuous early career coaching circumstances are never good for a young quarterback, and that’s the situation Fields will likely find himself in soon.

People generally seem to like the fit of Mac Jones going to New England. I’m not sure I really see the reason, except for the side-by-side photos of Jones and Tom Brady looking doughy and unathletic (if that was what they wanted in a quarterback, they should have just drafted me). Jones is not Tom Brady, and he never will be, and people need to stop drawing this weird comparison.

Jones is a smart and accurate player who can run the offense to the letter, but won’t give you anything more than the supporting cast gives him. And right now in New England, they have no supporting cast. They just lost their best offensive lineman in Joe Thuney, and they tried to build up a nonexistent receiving corps through free agency by signing mediocre veterans Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne to unnecessarily large contracts. Transitioning to the NFL, Jones is going to have worse protection and worse receivers than he had in college. And I don’t really see a path forward to near-term success, besides perhaps some Bill Belichick wizardry.

 

Best Players Remaining

Heading into night two of the draft, there are still a handful of very good players on the board. Here are a few of my favorites.

Jeremiah Owusu-Koromoah, LB/S/CB, Notre Dame

Owusu-Koromoah is the best player left on the board. He has the talent to be a top ten player, but his size and questions about positional fit seem to have scared quite a few teams into drafting lesser players. In the second round though, someone is going to find a playmaking force on the defense as an edge safety or a slot cornerback or whatever they want him to play. He flies all over the field, he has tremendous instincts, and he is excellent in coverage. In short, he is the perfect player for the modern NFL.

Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue

It’s clear why Moore is still available. Injuries meant that he barely played his last two years in college, and never really developed as a wide receiver. For the first couple years of his career, his team is going to have to find ways to feed him the ball. But Moore is one of those rare athletes that actually justifies this kind of role in an offense. He’s basically a more dangerous and more explosive version of Kadarius Toney, who the Giants took with the 20^th pick last night.

Terrace Marshall, WR, LSU

Marshall will be a very solid receiver wherever he ends up. He has some issues with concentration drops, and there are reportedly some medical red flags that were raised. But he has the speed to challenge defenses down the field and the body control to make some difficult catches. He’s probably not going to be a superstar, but he’ll be a starting receiver for a long time.

Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama

No defensive tackles went in the first round, and now we’ve reached a point where I kind of like the value for Barmore. He is still a developing player, but he has the physical tools to be a dangerous interior pass rusher. He’s not ready for more than a situational role yet, and there’s a chance that this is all he’ll ever be good for. But in the second round the burst and strength he shows is hard to find, and it’s worth a gamble.

Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU

Moehrig is the top pure safety on the board, an excellent straight-line athlete who will slide in as a solid piece on the back end of a defense. He isn’t much of a run defender, and he’s not going to be a piece that a defensive coordinator can throw anywhere on the field, or a true eraser at the top end of the defense. He’s just a solid safety, and the second round is a good place for him.

Teven Jenkins, OG/OT, Oklahoma State

I think Jenkins will spend most of his career at guard, but he has just enough athletic ability to have some upside as a tackle. He doesn’t move as well as his testing numbers suggest, but as a downhill blocker he is capable of dominating defenders. He’s the sort of player you routinely see driving people deep into the bench area, pushing the boundaries between aggressive and insane. Properly used, he can be a building block of a quality running game.

 

Additional Scouting Reports

I did pretty well this year, having pre-written scouting reports for 30 of the 32 players selected last night. Still, that leaves two I haven’t yet broken down in detail. So here they are.

17) Las Vegas Raiders – Alex Leatherwood, OT/OG, Alabama

Leatherwood played tackle in college, but I don’t think there’s any chance he can do that in the NFL. He has the athleticism to play on the edge, but he never seems to harness that athleticism after his initial drop. He gets good depth and makes it into good position, and then he freezes in place, his feet dead beneath him. Pass rushers can run circles around him with double moves, and his only real hope is to reach outside his frame and grab them. But it’s not like his hands are that effective either. He doesn’t have any power on his punch, and when he tries to use it half the times he ends up missing his target and tipping forward. His mobility was enough to get him into position to stop pass rushers at the college level, but in the NFL he will be eaten alive if he plays on the edge.

It’s not that these weaknesses won’t be concerns if he plays guard, but they’ll at least be mitigated somewhat on the inside. There’s less space for defenders to run around him, and the rushers he faces will be less agile than on the edge. He’s decent at absorbing contact and not being driven backwards, though at times he does let his shoulders get turned too easily, which could open up lanes to get to the quarterback.

The best thing Leatherwood has going is his run blocking. He can be effective in any scheme, with the power to move people straight backwards and the athleticism to reach and seal defenders. He isn’t as physically overwhelming or consistent as I would like to see from a first round guard, but he has the tools to develop at this position down the line.

In terms of value, this was yet another major reach by the Raiders. Leatherwood would have been a decent pick in the second round, and he very well could have been available for them at that point. Christian Darrisaw is better if they wanted a tackle, and Teven Jenkins was a better option if they were going for a guard. Once again, I’m not really sure what the Raiders are doing when running the draft.

 

28) New Orleans Saints – Payton Turner, EDGE, Houston

Turner was the biggest surprise of all the names called last night. He was considered a second or third round player for most of the process, before making some small buzz over the final few days leading into the draft. And after watching three games from him in the past day, the biggest question I have is, why the hell did it take so long? Seriously, what am I missing? He’s got great size at 6-6 and 268 pounds. He was productive with 10.5 sacks in five games his final year in college. He tested well athletically and looks like a fantastic athlete on the field. On paper he has basically everything you could want from a pass rusher.

On tape, most of what you look for is there too. His burst off the ball isn’t elite, but it is good enough, especially since he is the best edge rusher in the class at turning the corner. Despite his height he plays low to the ground, sweeping beneath a tackle’s arms and playing through contact to cut at almost a ninety degree angle to the quarterback. He has insane flexibility for someone his size, and it shows up on every play. He has the ability to twist and bend his upper body to avoid punches from an opposing lineman, and because of his he almost never gets caught up on blocks. His effort is relentless as well, and even if he doesn’t get there with his initial rush he will find a way to the ball.

Turner is still occasionally inconsistent, particularly against the run. He can make some great plays shooting into the backfield and playing through traffic to disrupt things from the backside, but he can also leave himself exposed trying to swim through a gap and get buried into the middle of the pile. He also needs to be better about maintaining his rushing lanes when going after the quarterback, especially when he takes an interior route or is lined up as a defensive tackle.

Even with these faults, if I had studied him before the draft he probably would have been my highest rated edge defender. He definitely should have gone in the top half of the first round, and the Saints got insane value where they selected him. Their defense was a different unit without Trey Hendrickson on the field a year ago, and they needed to find a way to replace him after he left in free agency. They did just that, and they may have even gotten someone better.

 

Awards

Best First Round Selection: Devonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

I should probably make this Justin Fields, since getting a quarterback of this caliber at pick 11 is basically unheard of. But the Bears did pay a lot to slide up to get him, and I have concerns about where they are in their team-building process. Also, I already talked about Fields above. So let’s go with the player selected one pick before him.

Smith is really, really good, and he’s headed to a team in desperate need of a wide receiver. He’ll be the top threat in that offense from day one, and he already has some familiarity with the quarterback after playing two years in college with Jalen Hurts. I still think last year’s first round pick Jalen Reagor will turn into a good receiver, but he’s probably better as a deep threat playing off of a more complete wide receiver. Well Smith is as complete as they come, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he was contending for a Pro Bowl spot this year.

 

Worst First Round Selection: Travis Etienne, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

There weren’t any totally ridiculous reaches this year (it helped that Seattle didn’t have a first round pick), but there are a handful of selections I didn’t care for. Taking Wilson and Lance over Fields was a mistake for both teams. Jaylen Waddle over his teammate Smith doesn’t really make sense to me. I’m not a fan of Gregory Rousseau or Eric Stokes, though at that point in the first round a reach is a bit more understandable.

At one point I thought this pick was going to be Najee Harris, the running back selected by the Steelers. Then the Jaguars jumped in and took a worse running back one pick later with even less need at the position. A year ago they got fantastic production from a rookie running back they grabbed as an undrafted free agent, and it’s baffling that they decided to follow that up with investing a first round pick at the position. The Jaguars have so many bigger needs, and it’s borderline malpractice that they decided to take a player at a position with minimal value where they already have talent on the roster.

 

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars

As we saw with Justin Herbert’s win last year, if there’s even a decent rookie quarterback he’s going to win the award. So as much as I would like to entertain someone like Smith or Ja’Marr Chase, it has to be one of the quarterbacks. As I discussed above, I don’t have high expectations with the situations Wilson, Fields, and Jones are headed into. That leaves Lawrence and Lance, and while I think Lance could get some love if he powers the 49ers to the playoffs with his legs, Lawrence seems like the safer bet.

Lawrence is as pro-ready as any quarterback that has entered the league since Andrew Luck, and he’s headed into an offense that has the pieces he needs to succeed. He’s also the quarterback I’m most confident will be a starter from day one. The Jaguars won’t make a playoff run this year, but that isn’t necessary for this award, and simply winning six or seven games will be a massive step forward for this team.

 

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Jaelan Phillips, EDGE, Miami Dolphins

This field feels particularly wide open this year. The first two defensive players off the board were cornerbacks, but cornerback is always a hard position to translate from college to the NFL, and I’m not sure I feel great about either Jaycee Horn or Patrick Surtain being an exception to that rule. After that came a run of linebackers, any of which I could see winning the award. My best bet would be Jamin Davis, who is in position to rack up a lot of tackles behind a quality defensive line in Washington. But people seem to have rightly realized that tackles are a meaningless stat, which makes it hard for a linebacker to compete.

Phillips is the most immediately ready of the pass rushers drafted last night, and he’s going to a good situation in Miami. The Dolphins don’t have any other pass rushers to take away his reps, and he will have plenty of opportunities to earn a spot on the field. And with the secondary they’ve put together in Miami, quarterbacks will likely be stuck sitting in the pocket with nowhere to go with the ball. Phillips has the speed to produce several quick-hitting sacks, as well as the supporting cast to let him clean things up even when he doesn’t get immediate pressure.

 

Odell Beckham/Justin Herbert Award for Selection I am Most Likely to be Wrong About: Zaven Collins, LB, Arizona Cardinals

I was very harsh on this pick last night, and I still don’t particularly like Collins. I don’t see anything he does at a particularly high level, which is pretty much the same thing I said about Isaiah Simmons, the linebacker the Cardinals took in the top ten last year. The two are different players, but they have similarities in some ways. They are both very big, and they are both extremely fast. And it’s hard not to have at least some reason for hope about prospects with this sort of physical ability.

Collins struggles to play through traffic in the box, but that isn’t as important for a linebacker these days. His ability to make plays towards the sidelines will help corral quick screens and lateral runss, making up for the occasional plays he allows on the interior. And while I didn’t love what I saw from him in pass coverage, other people have generally praised this part of his game. It’s possible that I missed something here, and that Collins will be a perfect new-age linebacker in the center of Arizona’s defense.

2021 NFL Draft First Round Review

Well, that was the first round of the NFL Draft. It wasn’t the most thrilling draft I’ve ever sat through, with only one huge trade and only a couple major reaches. But I still had a lot of fun, because the draft is always fun.

Tomorrow I’ll pull together my usual in-depth review of the first round. But for tonight, here are my thoughts on each selection typed up as they happened.

If you want to read deeper breakdowns of any of the players selected, click the link for the position group below (except for defensive tackles, since there were no defensive tackles selected).

Wide Receivers
Cornerbacks
Linebackers and Safeties
Running Backs
Offensive Linemen
Defensive Tackles
Edge Defenders
Quarterbacks

1) Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

We’ve known this was going to happen for a while, but we should still take a moment to appreciate how good a quarterback the Jaguars got. Lawrence is pretty much a sure thing as an NFL starter, and he’s ready to start right away. There are questions about a few parts of his game, and I’m not confident in the coaching staff the Jaguars have assembled to develop him. But on paper he has everything a quarterback needs to be successful in the NFL, combining physical tools with an extremely advanced understanding of the game.

2) New York Jets – Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

This is another pick that has been more or less assumed for a month now, so everything that can be said has already been said. I think it’s a mistake to take Wilson over Justin Fields, but that doesn’t mean Wilson is a bad player. He’s a good fit for the offense they want to run in New York, and he has the talent to be a very effective quarterback. I worry some about how he will handle pressure after thriving at BYU where he was almost untouched, but the Jets have the foundation of a decent offensive line and the assets to build on top of that.

3) San Francisco 49ers – Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State

This pick is even more puzzling. Fields is everything Lance is physically, just much more polished and much more accurate. There was a lot of talk about them potentially going with Mac Jones, and while I have Lance ranked ahead of Jones, this is one case where the Alabama quarterback might have made more sense. The 49ers have a really good team in place, and with capable quarterback play they can compete over the next two or three years. Lance has long-term upside, but he’s not going to help this team in 2021. And if he doesn’t work out, the 49ers have just tanked their entire contending window.

4) Atlanta Falcons – Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

I can spend the next however many picks it takes explaining that each team erred by not selecting Fields. But I’ll just let this pick be what it is, which is a team with a talented offense adding a one-of-a-kind player at tight end. After a decade of Julio Jones dominating on the outside, they have another freakish player who can do this joining the team. The only difference is that Pitts has the blocking skills to play tight to the line as well. It would be no surprise if his career matches what Jones has given Atlanta for years.

5) Cincinnati Bengals – Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU

A lot of people expected the Bengals to try to add protection for Joe Burrow, and I probably would have gone with Penei Sewell myself. But Chase is a hell of a player too. He has good size and plays even bigger than he is, with excellent ball skills and overwhelming physicality. He tested a lot more explosively than he played on the field, suggesting there may be even more there if he continues to develop his game. We last saw him playing when he was 19 years old and tearing up the SEC, and he has flashes of developing true elite route running skills to round out his game.

6) Miami Dolphins – Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama

For the second straight pick, a rookie quarterback from last year is reunited with one of their star receivers. Waddle is pure speed who will open up Miami’s offense by threatening defenses over the top from the moment he steps on the field. The question is, does he have more to his game than speed, or is he just another John Ross or Marquise Brown? I think he does have more, both in his quickness with the ball in his hands and in his ability to elevate and make plays on the ball. It just may take some time for him to integrate these skills into a complete game.

7) Detroit Lions – Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon

So far my mock draft is correct on six of seven selections. Not a lot of surprises so far, though this was a pick that could have gone a few ways. Offensive line isn’t the biggest need on Detroit’s offense, but as we saw in Los Angeles Jared Goff is a very different quarterback depending on the protection in front of him. Sewell is a very gifted athlete who is already a good pass blocker with the potential to get even better. He’ll lock down a spot on this offensive line for a long time.

8) Carolina Panthers – Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina

Here is the first mild surprise of the draft. It isn’t a surprise that the first defensive player off the board is Horn, but I think most people expected Carolina to address their offense after spending every draft pick on defense a year ago. But cornerback is still a need for this defense, and Horn has the physical tools to be truly great. He’s big, he’s fast, and he’s capable of driving wide receivers into the ground in pass coverage. Carolina is building something very interesting on defense, and seem to be committed to Sam Darnold to power their offense.

9) Denver Broncos – Patrick Surtain Jr, CB, Alabama

The second of the top two cornerbacks goes off the board to the Broncos, a pick that would have made a lot of sense if Justin Fields wasn’t sitting on the board. But like I said, I’m just going to move past that and focus on the player that was taken. Surtain is a very skilled cornerback who is as ready to start from day one as any rookie cornerback can be, for a defense that should take a step forward this year with Von Miller returning.

10) Philadelphia Eagles – Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama

For the second straight year the Eagles take a wide receiver in the first round, but this time it is going to work out. Smith is not just my favorite receiver in the draft, but my favorite receiver I’ve scouted in eight years of doing this. He’s fast enough to break away from defenders down the field, he has the route running skills to separate from any coverage underneath, and he has the catch radius and physicality to make life easy for his quarterback. The only reason he’s available at this point is because he weighed in at 170 pounds, which I don’t care about. This is a future superstar wide receiver that Philadelphia just added.

11) Chicago Bears – Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

The Bears made the big move of this draft, giving up a first round selection to jump nine spots. They needed a quarterback, and they got the second best one in the class in Fields. Fields is a tremendous athlete, and he’s also the most accurate quarterback in this draft. He’s going to be a superstar, and he gives the Bears the best future at the quarterback position of any team in the NFC North.

12) Dallas Cowboys – Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State

Dallas was probably pissed off when the top two cornerbacks went right before their selection, but they managed to pick up some value by sliding back two spots and grabbing the top defensive player left on their board. I probably would have goen with one of the pass rushers ahead of this, but Parsons is a good player with tremendous upside. He’ll have the same issues adjusting to the NFL that most young linebackers do, but in a defense without much else he has the playmaking skills to be used in a lot of interesting ways.

13) Los Angeles Chargers – Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern

The Chargers may have been tempted by trying to improve their defense, but with Horn, Surtain, and Parsons off the board there wasn’t a great value to be had for a team that is already set at pass rush. So instead they decide to bolster their offensive line. It will be interesting to see if they keep Slater at tackle or move him to guard, but whatever position he plays he is going to be a very valuable piece in front of Justin Herbert.

14) New York Jets – Alijah Vera-Tucker, OG, USC

Remember what I said about the Jets needing to improve their offensive line? Well clearly they agreed, because they traded two third round selections to jump up and grab the top guard in the draft. This is higher than I would have wanted to take Vera-Tucker, but it isn’t too much of a reach. Put him beside Mekhi Becton, and the left side of that offensive line is going to open some massive holes in the running game, which will make life a lot easier for their young quarterback.

15) New England Patriots – Mac Jones, QB, Alabama

This ends up being decent value for Jones. He has his limitations, but he’s still a good player with the potential to be a solid NFL starter. That said, New England is not my favorite fit for him. He excelled at Alabama surrounded by elite weapons, and he’d be best suited in a similar situation in the NFL. That is not the case in New England. He has nothing to throw to, and he is going to have to create offense on his own, which is the biggest hole in his game.

16) Arizona Cardinals – Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa

This is the first pick that I’ve really absolutely hated. This is way too high for Collins, a linebacker with a ton of holes in his game. He is big and fast and looks physically overwhelming on the field, and at a low level in college that was enough to lead to a lot of flash plays. But he struggles to play through traffic, and facing NFL blockers he will be basically useless in the running game. He has some potential to develop in pass coverage, but he may be too large to move the way you need to against quick lateral routes. Maybe they think he can fill in for Haason Reddick, who had tremendous success after moving from linebacker to edge rusher last year. But Collins doesn’t have the flexibility to consistently succeed on the edge. So I’m just not sure what he does at a high level to be worth a selection in the top half of the first round.

17) Las Vegas Raiders – Alex Leatherwood, OT, Alabama

Leatherwood is the first player off the board I haven’t studied in depth. He’s a very good athlete who was effective as a tackle in the SEC, but I’ll reserve my judgment until I can write up a full scouting report tomorrow.

18) Miami Dolphins – Jaelan Phillips, EDGE, Miami

Unsurprisingly Phillips is the top pass rusher off the board. He has the length and the burst to be a special player, if he can develop a more well-rounded game. He had a rocky college career that involved two different stops and numerous injuries, but he turned it on his final season to suggest he’s on the verge of capturing his potential. Miami needs a pass rusher, and though Phillips wasn’t personally my favorite edge rusher, I like the value of this selection.

19) Washington Football Team – Jamin Davis, LB, Kentucky

Three picks after the Cardinals leap on Collins, Washington selects an even better linebacker. Davis is a dominant run stopper who also ran a 4.44 forty at his Pro Day. He still has some work to do in pass coverage, but I like the foundation he has to build on there. I’m a little skeptical of Washington grabbing a linebacker to help an already excellent defense when there were better players available on the offensive side, particularly at offensive line and wide receiver.

20) New York Giants – Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida

This pick feels like a stretch to me. Toney is a slot receiver with incredible skills running with the ball in his hands. He moves in space like a running back, and if you can get the ball to him special things will happen. Of course with a statement like that, getting the ball to him is the tough part. He has the quickness to be a dangerous route runner but hasn’t yet harnessed it. He’s small and doesn’t really go outside his frame to make catches, or play through physical coverage. There were better receiving options here, and players the Giants could have added on defense as well.

21) Indianapolis Colts – Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan

This is one of my favorite picks in the first round. Paye is an excellent athlete who has shown flashes of being able to win in every way possible in college. He has speed and he has power, and he just needs to harness his skills more than two or three times a game. I think he’ll get there, and in the meantime he can be an impact situational player for a Colts defense that really needed an edge pass rusher.

22) Tennessee Titans – Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech

The Titans counter their division rival with another pick I love. A healthy Farley is the best cornerback in the class, with the ability to change direction and make plays on the ball that neither of the players selected ahead of him can match. Of course the health concerns are the reason he was available here in the first place, and I have nowhere near enough information to comment on that. So let’s just stick with the positive angle here.

23) Minnesota Vikings – Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech

The Vikings played this pretty much perfectly. They missed out on the top tier of offensive linemen, so they moved down, added some extra picks, and still got the best tackle in the second tier. Darrisaw doesn’t have the athleticism of Sewell or Slater, and that will limit him some. But he’s one of the only players in this class with the prototypical size of an NFL tackle, and he fills a huge need for the Vikings. It remains to be seen which tackle position he will play, but he’ll likely be an impact player for their offense right away.

24) Pittsburgh Steelers – Najee Harris, RB, Alabama

I like Harris, but I don’t like this pick. The Steelers have much bigger problems with their offense than running back, and I think they would have been better off addressing the offensive line here and grabbing a running back on day two or three. That said, Harris is the best running back in the class, a physical pounder who is impossible to bring down, and he will be around in a couple years when the Steelers likely will have to scale back the passing game of their offense.

25) Jacksonville Jaguars – Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson

I certainly did not expect this pick. Last year the Jaguars got excellent production from an undrafted free agent, so you'd think that would teach them that running back isn’t a position you need to invest a lot in. Instead they decided to ignore their defense and grab Etienne. He makes sense from a fit perspective, as an explosive element to an offense that is going to spread the ball around a lot. It’s just not a good move from a value perspective.

26) Cleveland Browns – Greg Newsome, CB, Northwestern

The Browns make an excellent move here by grabbing the best cornerback remaining on the board. With him across from Denzel Ward (and if they can get anything from Greedy Williams) this has the makings of a very good secondary, to go along with a top notch defensive line. This team will still go as far as Baker Mayfield can carry them, but the roster they’re building gives them the potential to compete for a championship if he can take another step forward.

27) Baltimore Ravens – Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota

I didn’t love Bateman as much as most people, but I think this is decent value for him and a good fit in Baltimore. He is a physical receiver with a big catch radius who will give Baltimore a much needed threat in the intermediate range. The past couple years their offense has been limited by having only tight ends and deep threats. I have concerns about Bateman’s ability to separate, but he can create opportunities on the boundary. There are still some questions about Lamar Jackson’s accuracy in that part of the field, and I personally would have gone with Terrace Marshall ahead of Bateman. But at this point in the first round this is a piece that can help their offense.

28) New Orleans Saints – Payton Turner, EDGE, Houston

Turner is a player who has risen a lot lately, and I haven’t watched him at all. Will try to have thoughts by tomorrow.

29) Green Bay Packers – Eric Stokes, CB, Georgia

Stokes is a track star who is still figuring things out at cornerback, and I think he has the ability to develop into a good cornerback in the right circumstances. It may take him a year or two to get onto the field on a regular basis, but once he makes it there he is going to be impossible to beat over the top. They may need to give him some help against quicker underneath routes, but with Jaire Alexander on the other side, the Packers are positioned to do this. There were better cornerbacks on the board in Asante Samuel Jr and Tyson Campbell, but this is a pick that could look really good in a couple of years.

30) Buffalo Bills – Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami

Rousseau is a fascinating player. He looks like a dominant pass rusher when he’s standing still, and he produced a lot of sacks in his final year in college in 2019. But he doesn’t have flexibility or quickness that you usually see from elite pass rushers, and it’s unclear how he’ll best be used in the NFL. That said, he could be an excellent situational pass rusher for a Bills team that already has a couple good options on the edge. Rousseau is at his best rushing on the interior, and putting him in a unit with Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison, and Ed Oliver would be a nightmare for opposing offenses, especially in what the Bills likely hope will be a playoff rematch with Kansas City.

31) Baltimore Ravens – Jayson Oweh, EDGE, Penn State

I was pretty sure Oweh would find his way into the first round. He’s just too athletic for someone not to fall in love with him. He also has no pass rushing skills right now, and he is going to have to take a massive jump forward to be an effective player in the NFL. Baltimore will have to find creative ways to use him the first couple years while he grows as a player. I liked a couple other edge rushers more, but I can’t fault a team for falling in love with the best athlete in the draft.

32) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Joe Tryon, EDGE, Washington

It isn’t a surprise that the Buccaneers decided to go with a pass rusher here. Tryon is a bit of a reach though. He has moments of very good burst off the line, but he doesn’t seem to finish well in the backfield. He also has a tendency to freelance and isn’t very strong against the run. He’s the sort of player that would have been good to grab at the end of the second round, but at the end of the first it feels like a mistake.

2021 Mock Draft: Reality

Yesterday I laid out how the draft would play out if I was in charge of making all the picks. But once again, the NFL elected not to trust me with this responsibility. So today I’ll try to predict what will actually happen.

The real draft will likely see some trades, though it’s become harder in recent years to find two willing teams at the top of the draft. And I’ve always felt that trades make mock drafts less fun, so I’m going to pretend that trading picks isn’t allowed (aside from the ones that have already been traded).

1) Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

There’s not much left to say on this one. It would be one of the most dramatic upsets in recent memory if anyone other than Lawrence ended up going with this pick. The Jaguars will take him, and they will happily have their quarterback for the next decade.

2) New York Jets – Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

I’m not sure how talent evaluators can watch the quarterbacks in this year’s draft and come away with Wilson ranked ahead of Justin Fields, but it sounds almost certain that the Jets have done just this. Wilson can certainly do some interesting things, especially when he escapes the pocket and launches the ball down the field on the run. In terms of being a well-rounded quarterback, he has a ways to go. But it’s not like the Jets are in a position to be making a run anytime soon.

3) San Francisco 49ers – Mac Jones, QB, Alabama

This has been the most talked about pick since San Francisco decided to leap up from number 12. It’s clear based on what they paid that they’re going for a quarterback, but so far no one seems to agree which of the three remaining options they play to select. There has been so much smoke blown back and forth around this selection, but the loudest and most consistent voices seem to all be pointing at Jones for some reason.

4) Atlanta Falcons – Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

Here is where things get really interesting. I could see the Falcons trying to grab their quarterback of the future here, or snagging a top wide receiver, or even adding another first round pick to their offensive line. But I think Pitts is the best fit for what they are going to want to do in Arthur Smith’s offense. It’s almost unheard of for a tight end to go this high, but it’s also unheard of for a tight end to have as much talent as Pitts. He’s basically a wide receiver who just happens to be big and physical enough to pose consistent matchup problems as an in-line tight end as well.

5) Cincinnati Bengals – Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU

The Bengals have been linked to an offensive lineman ever since Joe Burrow went down last season. And yet, it seems that things are pointing towards them not using their top pick to add to his protection. They still like Jonah Williams, their first pick in 2019, and they added Riley Reiff as a free agent. And I don’t think Burrow will be too upset at adding his top target from his last year at LSU, the almost unanimous highest ranked wide receiver in this draft class (though I personally have Devonta Smith higher).

6) Miami Dolphins – Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama

The Dolphins were probably assuming they would still have a shot at either Pitts or Chase when they moved to this spot a month ago, but with them off the board they’ll have to settle for the next offensive weapon on their list. The first year from Tua Tagovailoa was a bit rocky, but he’ll be helped by adding one of his former teammates as well. Waddle possesses game breaking speed that will open up Miami’s offense and make life easier for everyone else on the unit.

7) Detroit Lions – Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon

The Lions basically need everything, so I expect they’ll take the best player left on the board. With the run on offensive weapons above them, Sewell is the clear choice. He says that he’s been practicing on both sides of the line in the leadup to the draft, and with the Lions I expect he’ll at least start on the right side, giving Jared Goff a pair of quality book-end tackles with Sewell opposite Taylor Decker.

8) Carolina Panthers – Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

This is the kind of tricky part of doing a mock draft without trades. I expect all five quarterbacks will go in the top ten, if not to one of these next two teams then to someone trading up in response. And even if there isn’t a trade, I can see the Panthers deciding to pull the trigger if Fields is available to them. They traded for Sam Darnold, but I doubt they’re putting all their eggs for the next two years in that basket. If they are, they could conceivably try to bolster their offensive line with Rashawn Slater here. But I have a feeling this eighth pick will be used on a quarterback, whoever that ends up being.

9) Denver Broncos – Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State

Similarly, I’m not convinced the Broncos are ready to go after a quarterback just yet. They probably should with Drew Lock looking pretty much useless to this point, and Lance would seem to fit after they have likely been kicking themselves all offseason for passing on Josh Allen three years ago. Lance isn’t ready to step onto an NFL field right away, which will give them time to see if they might have something in Lock. They don’t, and Lance will make it out there before he’s ready, but it’s a worthwhile thought nonetheless.

10) Dallas Cowboys – Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina

With the tenth pick, we finally get the first defensive player off the board. I expect the first defender taken will be a cornerback, either Horn or Patrick Surtain Jr. Based on recent Cowboys cornerback selections Byron Jones and Trevon Diggs, I think the physical, athletic Horn better fits what they’re looking for at the position than the more polished Surtain.

11) New York Giants – Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama

Smith’s slide on draft boards is puzzling to me. He has length, speed, route running skills, leaping ability, and excellent hands. Basically everything you could want from a wide receiver, that just so happens to come in a slightly skinny frame. At this point anyone could fall in love like I have and decide to grab him. In this case I’m pairing him with the Giants, a team that improved their receiving corps by handing a massive contract to Kenny Golladay but still would benefit from adding a true top option on the outside.

12) Philadelphia Eagles – Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern

Carson Wentz was really bad last year, but he wasn’t helped by an offensive line that has disintegrated in front of him over the past couple years. Jason Kelce is still really good, and so is Lane Johnson when he can make it onto the field. Andre Dillard will be returning after missing 2019, but they will likely still want to bolster their front to help out Jalen Hurts. Slater is excellent value at this draft slot, and he can slide in either as a starting tackle or as a guard if they still like what Dillard is showing them.

13) Los Angeles Chargers – Patrick Surtain Jr, CB, Alabama

The Chargers secondary was big on flashy names entering 2020, then fell to pieces, unsurprising given the age of some of the players they were relying on. They need fresh energy on the back end, and if one of the top two cornerbacks is available to them here, I think they’ll jump all over it. Cornerback is always the hardest position to transition from college to pros, but Surtain has the polish to at least have some contribution his first year.

14) Minnesota Vikings – Jaelan Phillips, EDGE, Miami

The Vikings are in a bit of no-man’s land here. Too low to get one of the top two offensive linemen, too high to take anyone from the next tier. I could see them trading out of this spot, either trying to jump up to grab Slater or sliding down to take someone like Alijah Vera-Tucker or Christian Darrisaw. If they stay put though, there’s a decent chance they decide to address the front on the other side of the ball instead. Phillips seems to have emerged as the top rated pass rusher in this class, and while I like the versatility of someone like Kwity Paye more, there’s no looking past the length and speed that Phillips possesses.

15) New England Patriots – Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State

Parsons is a player that is a little challenging to place. I could see someone getting really enamored with his combination of size and speed and taking him in the top ten. Or I could see teams avoiding a linebacker who still needs to grow in coverage and leaving him to slide out of the top twenty. New England seems like a good fit for him though. Bill Belichick loves versatile linebackers, and Parsons would be an excellent fit as a run defender and situational pass rusher.

16) Arizona Cardinals – Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota

There are reports that the Cardinals are trying to jump into the top ten to grab a wide receiver, and I don’t think being stuck at sixteen will stop them from taking one here. Bateman seems to have settled as the top option among the second tier of receivers, and I think he’d fit well in Arizona alongside DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk. I have some concerns about how the Cardinals use the receivers in their offense, but they’ve consistently worked to try to add talent at that position to allow them to spread the field as often as possible.

17) Las Vegas Raiders – Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama

I think Barmore will end up going higher than people expect, and higher than he deserves. The defensive tackle class is so thin this year that someone is going to jump on the opportunity to grab the one player with some potential upside. The Raiders make sense, as a team that tends to grab players higher than expected and one that released starting defensive tackle Maurice Hurst just a couple weeks ago.

18) Miami Dolphins – Jayson Oweh, EDGE, Penn State

One of the advantages of having a ton of first round selections is that you can afford to miss on a couple, which means you can take chances on players with high bust potential. Oweh is the best pure athlete at any position in this class, and he partners that with basically no pass rushing skill. If he develops his game in the NFL, he has the potential to give Miami a true game-changing pass rush threat. If he doesn’t, well they have plenty of other talent on their roster to fall back on.

19) Washington Football Team – Alijah Vera-Tucker, OT/OG, USC

Washington’s defense elevated their play down the stretch to carry them to the playoffs in 2020, and now they need to figure out how to get something going on offense. They’re a team with a potential to trade up for a quarterback or wide receiver, but there isn’t really a good option at either position available at this point. Instead they’ll bolster their offensive line with Vera-Tucker, an excellent athlete with experience at both guard and tackle. He’ll make it easier when they likely lose Brandon Scherff after this offseason and give them some continuity to try to rebuild their line around.

20) Chicago Bears – Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan

The Bears are basically in an identical position to Washington, just with more holes to fill on the defensive side. They could grab an offensive lineman as well, but I think they end up addressing the defensive side if they stay at this spot. They could draft someone in their secondary, or they could try to improve their pass rush. Paye would be an excellent secondary edge threat across from Khalil Mack, with the ability to develop into a top option when they eventually move on from their star.

21) Indianapolis Colts – Greg Newsome, CB, Northwestern

Here’s one of those convenient spots where my two mock drafts line up. Newsome feels like a perfect fit for Indianapolis, adding some youth to the back end of a defense that likely can’t lean on Xavier Rhodes for much longer. Newsome has a lot of potential, but there are concerns about injuries and about his tendency to grab opposing wide receivers. I can’t possibly think of a better replacement for Rhodes.

22) Tennessee Titans – Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech

Farley is my favorite cornerback in the draft, with movement skills none of the others can match. He also has a troubling injury history and very little experience actually playing cornerback. Getting him at this spot feels about right then, for a player with stellar upside and very real potential to bust.

23) New York Jets – Jeremiah Owusu-Koromah, LB/CB/S, Notre Dame

I could see Owusu-Koromoah going a lot higher than this. He’s the sort of playmaking, game-wrecking force that a defensive coach could very easily fall in love with. He’s also a bit of a positionless questionmark, which makes him hard to really pin down. I could see someone like the Chargers, Vikings, or Patriots leaping on him, but pairing him with first year coach Robert Saleh in New York seems like a good outcome for everyone involved.

24) Pittsburgh Steelers – Najee Harris, RB, Alabama

At this point in the draft I don’t think I’ve ever seen a player and a team linked more than the Steelers and Harris. It wouldn’t be a smart decision, as their running game has far bigger issues on the offensive line than it does at running back. But Harris is the sort of player who can contribute immediately as both a runner and a receiver, and this will appeal to a team that optimistically has one more year of quality quarterback play before having to start their offense over from the ground up.

25) Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU

The Jaguars could decide to use this pick to add some help to Lawrence on offense. But I think they feel good with what they have at wide receiver and on the offensive line, even if a player like Christian Darrisaw would probably make sense. So instead I have them grabbing someone to bolster their secondary. Moehrig is an excellent athlete who will be best playing in a deep zone where his speed can keep teams from being able to beat the Jaguars defense over the top.

26) Cleveland Browns – Jamin Davis, LB, Kentucky

Davis is a player I think will end up sneaking into the first round, deservedly so. He’s a dominant run defender with the athleticism to develop in pass coverage, and he’ll fit perfectly on a Browns defense that is still trying to fill out role players around a couple of stars. I could also see Cleveland trying to add more receiving talent to their offense, but I’m not sure who they would take at this point.

27) Baltimore Ravens – Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech

Darrisaw slides farther than he probably should in this mock draft, and he falls right into the lap of the Ravens. They just traded away Orlando Brown, and even though they are reportedly going to sign a free agent, I think they’ll jump at the opportunity to get a younger player on the outside. The biggest difference in Baltimore’s offense from 2019 to 2020 was the performance of their line, and rebuilding an elite unit in front of Lamar Jackson is pretty much essential.

28) New Orleans Saints – Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue

This is a bit of a stretch for Moore, but he’s the sort of player I could see Sean Payton really being excited about. He’s extremely raw as a receiver, and his injury history is a nightmare. But his quickness with the ball in his hands is off the chart, and he’d be yet another matchup headache for defenses trying to contain the Saints offense.

29) Green Bay Packers – Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State

I think the Packers really want to go receiver here, but with the players who went off the board above there isn’t really a good fit. Terrace Marshall would seem to make sense, but I’ve seen reports that he has medical concerns that may push him out of the first round. I'm also tempted to put Elijah Moore here, as I've heard he's really liked by some teams. But instead I have the Packers trying to help Aaron Rodgers another way, by bolstering his protection up front. Jenkins is a better run blocker than he is as a pass blocker, but he might fit well as a guard at least to start his career.

30) Buffalo Bills – Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami

Rousseau has fallen hard since he was considered a potential top ten pick early in the process, and most forecasters now have him pegged as a second day player. I have a sneaking suspicion he’ll find his way into the end of the first round though. Someone will look at his physical strengths and ignore his weaknesses, and Buffalo seems like a team with preferences that could align with what Rousseau does.

31) Baltimore Ravens – Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia

Baltimore could go a lot of different ways with their second selection. Over the past few years they’ve made their secondary the priority of their defense, and there are a few cornerback prospects who would make sense here. Eric Stokes is the track star who can run with any receiver. Asante Samuel Jr is the intelligent technician who lacks the traditional size and athleticism of a star cornerback. Campbell is somewhere in the middle, a good athlete whose biggest issue is playing the ball when it’s in the air.

32) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Joseph Ossai, EDGE, Texas

A pass rusher makes a lot of sense for Tampa Bay, with Jason Pierre-Paul being 32 years old and entering the final year of his contract. This pick will likely come down to Ossai or Azeez Ojulari, and I think Tampa Bay would end up preferring the more athletic, if less polished, Ossai.