We’re almost there. Two more days to go before the NFL regular season kicks off. In a year without the preseason, we haven’t seen any professional football played since the Super Bowl. We don’t know for sure how well the NFL’s COVID protocols will work, how teams will be impacted by players who opted out, or even if we’ll get 16 games from every team. It feels like we know even less this year than normal, and making any predictions is even more of an exercise in futility than in other years.
But screw it, I’m going to do it anyway.
Obviously COVID is a big variable that can’t be accounted for. Maybe 80% of the league’s starters will go down, and the Detroit Lions will miraculously emerge as the lone unaffected team and ride this to a Super Bowl. But it’s not worth factoring these random circumstances into the predictions. So I’m just going to pretend that everyone will stay healthy, and that the season will work out in an orderly fashion.
If you want to read more about any of these teams, click on one of my division previews below.
AFC WestAFC East
AFC North
NFC South
NFC West
NFC East
NFC North
AFC
AFC South
Houston Texans: 11-5Tennessee Titans: 9-7
Indianapolis Colts: 7-9
Jacksonville Jaguars: 2-14
The Texans will win this division again, because winning the AFC South is the tutorial level of the NFL. Tennessee went on an impressive run a year ago, but that required career-best performances from both Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill, which will not recur. They’re still probably one of the favorites to grab a Wild Card, bolstered by some good additions to their defense. But Deshaun Watson puts the Texans ahead of everyone else in this division, despite Bill O’Brien calling the shots.
Jacksonville is going to be very bad. They seem to understand this, as they’ve spent the past couple weeks trading away what few players on their roster might be considered competent. Their defense has been torn down to the barest of bones after being the best in the league just three seasons ago. Their offense is led by a quarterback who profiles as a long-term backup at best. The next step is to lose their games, then tear down their disastrous front office and coaching staff, and start from scratch in 2021.
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs: 14-2Las Vegas Raiders: 8-8
Denver Broncos: 8-8
Los Angeles Chargers: 6-10
The top spot in this division is not up for debate. The Chiefs are not competing with the AFC West, they’re competing with the other top teams in the AFC for the first round bye (remember, if things finish the way they did a year ago, the second-seeded Chiefs would have a first round playoff game). They can’t afford to have the midseason stumble they did in 2019. This stumble was largely due to health issues for Patrick Mahomes, and I think they’ll coast to the best record in the league this year.
The rest of the division will be scrambling for a wild card spot. The Chargers don’t have much of a shot, unless they get off to an early rhythm with Tyrod Taylor and can ride their defense. Ultimately I think it will come down to a tiebreaker, and the Raiders will slide into the AFC’s seventh seed. I think the Broncos have more upside if Drew Lock lives up to their expectations, but I trust Derek Carr more over the course of the season.
AFC East
New England Patriots: 9-7Buffalo Bills: 8-8
Miami Dolphins: 6-10
New York Jets: 4-12
No one is really sure what we’re going to see from the Patriots this year. I think slightly-above-average is the most likely outcome. Cam Newton probably won’t be at the peak of his powers, but he’ll be effective enough to give this offense some life. And the defense is still enough to keep them competitive in most games. Over a long season, I would still bet on Bill Belichick giving them the edge over the other teams in this division.
The Dolphins are still a year away, but they’ll make progress this year, especially once they get Tua Tagovailoa onto the field. The Jets are farther away than that. I still don’t know what to make of Sam Darnold, and they aren’t making it easy to figure that out as they continue to give him nothing to work with. The only team with a real chance of challenging the Patriots is Buffalo. They made the playoffs a year ago, and they’ll be better this year. But luck will break against them more in 2020, and they’ll end up just outside of the postseason.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: 12-4Pittsburgh Steelers: 9-7
Cincinnati Bengals: 6-10
Cleveland Browns: 6-10
Is this the year that Cleveland finally breaks through? It was supposed to be last year, but it wasn’t, and I don’t think 2020 is going to be much different. Their defense is still very young, and Baker Mayfield needs to show me some signs of being able to trust his offense to run its normal course. With another first-year coach, I think they’ll get off to a rough start before pulling together some late wins too late to challenge for a playoff spot. The other team in Ohio will have a similar season, but they will feel a lot better about it as their young quarterback grows towards 2021.
But the division race is between Baltimore and Pittsburgh, not that I think it will be much of a race. Both teams have excellent defenses, but Pittsburgh’s relied more on turnovers a year ago, which I think will slide back in 2020. The Steelers will also have some early season offensive struggles as Ben Roethlisberger returns from injury and adjusts to a very young group of receivers, which I think will dig them a hole too deep to get out of.
NFC
NFC South
New Orleans Saints: 13-3
Atlanta Falcons: 9-7
Carolina Panthers: 5-11
New Orleans had the bad luck of missing out on a first round bye a year ago, and it’s going to be even harder in 2020. Fortunately, I think 13 wins will be enough to get them there this season. The NFC South won’t offer much in the way of challenges, and the other top teams in the NFC from a year ago will stumble. The Saints should coast to a division title and set themselves up perfectly for yet more playoff heartbreak. (Mostly joking here. Maybe.)
The Buccaneers are the fascinating team in this division, for obvious reasons. I don’t think Tom Brady is an elite quarterback anymore, but if he can find the level he played at last year, there’s enough talent on this team for them to make a run at the postseason. I think ultimately they will fall short in a tiebreaker for the last spot with the Falcons, who should bounce back after a 2019 season that was derailed by some early stumbles.
NFC West
Seattle Seahawks: 11-5San Francisco 49ers: 10-6
Arizona Cardinals: 8-8
Los Angeles Rams: 8-8
This is the most wide open division in football, as evidenced by all four teams being separated by only three wins in my prediction. The Seahawks have the best quarterback, and that should give them what they need to pull away from the others in the division. The Cardinals and the Rams will have a shot at the playoffs but will ultimately fall short, as two teams headed in very different directions. Kyler Murray won’t have the MVP-caliber second year performance that we’ve seen from players over the past two years, but he’ll do enough to establish himself as the clear future for this Cardinals team.
The defending NFC champion 49ers are the most interesting team here. I always expect a team to regress after they make a leap like San Francisco did a year ago, especially when they don’t have a star at quarterback. They could stumble all the way out of the playoffs, but the strengths on their defensive line and their offensive play-calling aren’t just going to go away. They’ll be in the hunt for the division, and even if they don’t pull it out, I’d be surprised if this division didn’t end up producing at least two playoff teams.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys: 12-4Philadelphia Eagles: 10-6
New York Giants: 5-11
Washington Football Team: 3-13
The Cowboys are positioned to take a jump into the elite of the NFC. They have a star quarterback and a deep receiving corps. Their offense can be versatile with Ezekiel Elliott in the backfield. They have a defense that took a step back a year ago due to injuries but should bounce back to be an above average unit in 2020. Mike McCarthy isn’t the most inspiring head coach choice, but he has a lot of experience that should help a loaded roster take the next step and make a run towards the playoffs.
The Eagles have the potential to challenge them for the division, but I think they fall short in a number of categories. I think the difference between Dak Prescott and Carson Wentz is bigger than most people realize, and the weapons on the perimeter for this offense aren’t there either. Fortunately, the bottom of the division will help them pick up a few easy wins and get into the playoffs as a wild card team. Washington and New York are in similar situations trying out second-year quarterbacks, and while I like Haskins better than Jones, the Giants are much farther along in building out the rest of their roster.
NFC North
Green Bay Packers: 10-6Minnesota Vikings: 8-8
Chicago Bears: 6-10
Detroit Lions: 4-12
Both Green Bay and Minnesota will regress after making the playoffs a year ago. I don’t think this division will produce a wild card representative this year, and I think Green Bay will ultimately win the division thanks to head-to-head victories over the Vikings. Minnesota’s window is pretty much shut, and Green Bay’s likely is too, and whoever wins this division will probably face a first round exit when the playoffs come around.
In theory the Bears could challenge for the division again, but the uncertainty at the quarterback position will keep them from competing for any playoff spot. They’ll be closer than the Lions however, who are a year away from a total teardown. I don’t expect Matt Patricia to last the entire regular season, and I’m not sure what the future holds for Matthew Stafford, even if he continues to play at the high level he did before his injury in 2019.
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