Earlier this week I broke down the NFC South headed into this season. If you missed that, let me explain how I’m handling the COVID-19 situation: I’m not. For the sake of these previews, I am pretending as if the 2020 season is going to be just like any other. It’s delusion, but it’s all I have right now. So let’s put all thoughts of deadly viruses aside, and let’s get into something slightly less hazardous to our health—the AFC South.
Houston Texans
Best Case Scenario
Houston is the favorite in this division, despite their best efforts. That’s the advantage of having a superstar at quarterback. Even when you screw up everything else, you’re still in good position when the rest of your division is a mess as well. Deshaun Watson should be able to carry Houston to another division title, even if it’s going to be much more difficult after they gave away one of the league’s best wide receivers for the sake of Bill O’Brien’s ego.
Can they go farther than that? Probably not. They had a shot a season ago, and they ended up getting run off the field in the final three quarters by Kansas City. They are a much worse team without DeAndre Hopkins, and the only real hope is if JJ Watt can stay healthy and return to his Defensive Player of the Year form. Maybe then they can cause enough chaos on defense to win some low scoring games with Watson pulling off late heroics (more or less how they escaped Buffalo in the playoffs a year ago). I don’t think that’s a formula for championship success. But it’s a formula Seattle has used for consistent playoff appearances, and Houston can do the same.
Worst Case Scenario
I’ve been a critic of O’Brien ever since he arrived in Houston, but he really outside himself this offseason. It’s not just that he traded away Hopkins. It’s not just that he failed to get a first round pick out of it. It’s that the player he targeted in this trade was David Johnson. Not just a running back, but a running back with a massive contract and an ugly injury history. The only way they can justify the trade and the money they’re spending on him is if they make him the focal point of their offense.
I cannot fathom how this team watched a young superstar quarterback beat them by throwing the ball all over the field and then decided that their best approach was to take the ball out of their young star’s hands. They sent away a Hall of Fame wide receiver in the prime of his career for a running back on the downside of his, all because O’Brien didn’t get along with him on a personal level. He has consistently and aggressively made this team worse, and at this point I don’t think we can put anything else past him.
Player to Watch – Zach Cunningham, LB
Cunningham was one of my favorite players in the 2017 draft, and I thought the Texans got an absolute steal when they selected him in the second round. It’s taken a little longer than I expected, but it feels like he’s right on the verge of emerging into one of the best linebackers in the game. He’s already one of the best run stopping linebackers in the league, and if he can continue to develop his length and athleticism in pass coverage he’ll become a real weapon on this defense.
The Texans have a few intriguing pieces in the back seven of their defense. Benardrick McKinney is another dominant run defender at linebacker, just without the upside in pass defense that Cunningham has (though he’s more experienced and makes fewer mistakes in that part of the game). Justin Reid had a quieter second season after a strong debut, but he has the ability to emerge in year three. With Bradley Roby, Gareon Conley, and Vernon Hargreaves at cornerback, they have three former first round picks who haven’t lived up to it but still have potential (okay, maybe not Hargreaves). It feels like a long shot for them all to emerge as the Texans are hoping, but it’s hard not to be impressed by the upside across the board on this defense.
Indianapolis Colts
Best Case Scenario
It’s hard to know what to expect from Philip Rivers. He’s been slowly trending down for a few years now, and every now and then he’ll go out and look completely completely washed. But at times he’s still capable of spreading the ball all over the field. And now free of whatever curse has haunted the Chargers for most of his career, it’s possible he’ll get new life in Indianapolis.
The Colts roster is in kind of a weird place. They have a lot of veterans on the downside of their career—Justin Houston, Xavier Rhodes, Anthony Castonzo—and a lot of young players still in need of major development—Rock Ya-Sin, Malik Hooker, Michael Pittman. If the former group still has gas in the tank while the latter takes an early development leap, this team has the potential to make a run for a wild card spot.
Worst Case Scenario
Of course, things can very easily go in the opposite direction. Rhodes looked completely helpless a year ago in Minnesota. Houston was a pleasant surprise with 11 sacks last year, but that was the first time he hit double-digit sacks since 2014. I don’t think they can count on him to be as healthy and productive again, even with DeForest Buckner added beside him.
Rivers will bring a sharper touch to the offense than they had a year ago with Jacoby Brissett, but I’m not sure the rest of the offense is set up to take advantage of it. Rivers can be useful on a deep offense surrounded by weapons, but that is not how I would describe Indianapolis. They have one proven wide receiver, and while they have a few good options in the running game, none of them have shown much as receivers. They might actually be better off with Brissett’s younger arm and ability to stretch the field, giving them a few explosive plays to provide desperately needed life to their offense.
Player to Watch – Parris Campbell, WR
Hilton is about all they have at wide receiver, but last year’s second round pick Campbell could emerge as a major part of their offense this year. He showed flashes of promise early a year ago before missing most of the year with a series of injuries. His rookie campaign was ultimately disappointing with only 18 catches for 127 yards, and perhaps more significantly he lost out on crucial development time.
Campbell was never a particularly polished receiver even at the college level. He doesn’t do much as a route runner, and his hands are inconsistent. But he is fast, playing even quicker on the field than his 4.31 forty time. And unlike Hilton, his speed is not most dangerous stretching the field vertically. He tore defenses to shreds at Ohio State mostly on crossing routes, getting the ball into his hands with his speed already going and letting that break defenses around the edge. He showed some signs last year in the preseason and in his limited regular season time of developing additional skills at receiver. The Colts need him to keep this forward momentum going, and to stay on the field in 2020.
Tennessee Titans
Best Case Scenario
The best case scenario for Tennessee is what we saw over the second half of last year. AJ Brown is an emerging star at receiver who will bully defenses once he gets the ball in his hands. Ryan Tannehill attacked down the field in a way he never had before, and you could almost see him rejoicing at finally being freed from Miami. And of course Derrick Henry finally had the space in front of him to build the momentum he needs to batter defenders at the second level like he did in his college days.
The Titans came one game away from the Super Bowl a year ago before being swept away by the Chiefs tidal wave. The question is, can they take the next step? I’m not sure they can. They have some young pieces on their defense who could develop into real stars, but even if Jeffrey Simmons steps forward in his first full NFL season, he’ll merely be replacing what they traded away in Jurrell Casey. I think we saw the peak of the Titans a year ago, and the best they can hope to do is match that.
Worst Case Scenario
Of course, I think it’s far more likely that they end up well short of repeating their 2019 playoff run. Their playoff success came on the shoulders of Tannehill and Henry, two players who emerged with career performances after looking fairly ordinary for years before. In three seasons Henry had only eclipsed 1000 yards rushing once before leading the league a year ago. And in six years in Miami Tannehill averaged 7.0 yards per pass attempt before leaping to a remarkable 9.6 after taking over as the starter in Tennessee.
Nothing in their track records suggest that they can sustain this level of performance. But all of Tennessee’s hopes are pinned on them doing exactly that. They want to feed Henry 25 times a game, and they want to make life easier for Tannehill with a diet of play action. This can work if they get out to an early lead and can keep playing the game they want to play, but as we’ve seen before that kind of strategy is not sustainable from year-to-year. Things will get messier in Tennessee this year. They’ll suffer some worse luck. They’ll have players miss time due to injuries. And they are only equipped to win one way, which means that if they can’t dictate the flow of each and every game, they are going to suffer a lot of disappointing defeats.
Player to Watch – Rodger Saffold, OG
Saffold has been around for a long time. He was the second player selected by the Rams the same year they took Sam Bradford, and he spent the first nine seasons of his career with the franchise. He started at tackle as part of an abysmal line for half that time, then he moved to guard as part of the strong line that helped carry them to the Super Bowl. He’s a versatile veteran who fits in as a nice cog surrounded by better players, and he found himself in that situation once again in Tennessee.
Tennessee’s offensive gameplan is completely dependent on their offensive line winning at the point of attack. Henry is excellent at creating at the second level, but he can’t do much if he’s trapped in the backfield. And Tannehill excelled last year because he was virtually never under pressure. Things will be a little rougher this year with right tackle Jack Conklin now in Cleveland and first round pick Isaiah Wilson likely sliding into that spot. But Saffold has been through this sort of thing before, and alongside Taylor Lewan he provides a stable, veteran presence on the left side of the offensive line.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Best Case Scenario
Of all the teams with questionmarks at quarterback this offseason, the Jaguars were the only one who didn’t do anything to address the position. Granted, the last time they tried to address it they handed a bunch of money to Nick Foles, but I would have expected them to try to find something other than Gardner Minshew to roll into the year with. The Jaguars aren’t really trying to win in 2020, and the best outcome for them is probably a disaster of a season that lets them have their pick of quarterbacks in next year’s intriguing class. But if we’re interpreting a best case scenario as the highest win total, I’d be hard pressed to say they can get to more than five or six.
I don’t actually hate Minshew. He has a lot of good things going for him. He’s not afraid of any situation he’s forced into. He’s intelligent, and he can deliver easy throws with good accuracy. He’s the sort of quarterback I would love to have on my team, as a backup. He just doesn’t have that much talent to work with. In the right situation, with the right system and surrounding pieces and a little bit of luck, he might be able to put together a season like Case Keenum had in Minnesota. Jacksonville is not that situation.
Worst Case Scenario
It’s hard to believe that less than three years ago the Jaguars were playing with a chance to make it to the Super Bowl. This is basically a completely different team than the one they rode on their playoff run. On offense the only starters they return from that squad are three offensive linemen and Leonard Fournette. On defense the only remaining starter is Myles Jack, and maybe Yannick Ngakoue if he doesn’t follow through on his plan to sit out until he has a long-term deal.
This is a team in the middle of a total teardown. Any star players they once had are long gone. Now they are made up of a lot of recent draft picks—some that have shown promise like Josh Allen and Ronnie Harrison, and others who have not, namely Taven Bryan. These young players may be fun to watch at times, but they aren’t going to win games. In all likelihood the Jaguars will come down the stretch of the season fighting to earn the top pick in next year’s draft.
Player to Watch – DJ Chark, WR
One of the exciting young players is the third year wide receiver Chark. After a mostly anonymous rookie season, he erupted in his second year with a very quiet 1000 yard performance. It was honestly a bit of a surprise, faster development than anyone could have expected from a player who entered the league loaded with talent and lacking skill.
Chark stands tall at 6-3, and he wowed at the Combine with a 4.34 forty yard dash and a 40 inch vertical leap. This athleticism shows up on the field, as he blazes down the sideline and leaps over defenders to make spectacular catches. The fact that he was able to produce despite minimal route running ability and a team juggling quarterbacks all year suggests that he has still only begun to tap his potential. Over the past few seasons we’ve seen quite a few receivers emerge from the middle rounds to be among the best in the league—Michael Thomas, Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay—and Chark could very quickly shove his name into those same conversations.
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