2020 AFC East Preview

After two decades of rule, the tyranny of the Patriots is at an end. Tom Brady moved to a warmer climate. Multiple big-name players have already announced they are opting out. And the other three teams in the AFC East have young quarterbacks ready to leap forward and claim the division for themselves.

New England Patriots

Best Case Scenario

Or, maybe not. I circled around this several times, wanting to drop New England from the top of this list, and yet I could not find anyone to replace them. I don’t expect the Patriots to be good this year, especially not on the offensive side of the ball. But I’m not sure who in the division I honestly think can pass them, especially not while they still have the greatest coach of all time at their helm.

Even with their losses, New England does have some good pieces in place. Joe Thuney and Shaq Mason form one of the better guard duos in the league, and Isaiah Wynn has the potential to step forward after an injury-filled first couple years for the former first round tackle. Sony Michel struggled a year ago, but he had nearly 1000 yards in limited time as a rookie in 2018. And of course, this team made it as far as they did last year because of their defense. They tailed off some as the year went along, but that merely means they went to “pretty good” from “historically great”. And in this version of the AFC East, “pretty good” is probably enough to win.

Worst Case Scenario

I didn’t even address the quarterback situation in the section above. The absolute dream scenario is that Cam Newton comes in fully healthy and back to the form he showed in the first half of 2018—not quite the MVP he was in 2015, but enough to elevate a mediocre supporting cast. If, however, he is a shell of himself as he was during his limited time in 2019, they will likely be forced to turn to Jarrett Stidham as their starter.

The Patriots reportedly really like Stidham, but I can’t imagine why. He was bland and mediocre in college, and the absolute best case is that he reaches that level in the NFL. N’Keal Harry showed moments of promise as a rookie, but he is still an unproven player being asked to carry an entire receiving corps. And if you can’t pass in the NFL, you can’t win in the NFL. Stidham alone could be enough to sink this team’s playoff chances, no matter what they get from their running game and their defense.

Player to Watch – Jason McCourty, CB

For years he has been mostly known as “the other McCourty”. While his brother Devin was making plays in important games for the Patriots, Jason was toiling away as a very good cornerback unnoticed in the mediocrity of Tennessee. While Devin was moved to safety and given every chance to succeed by an excellent coaching staff, McCourty was stuck on an island while the Titans rotated through four different head coaches during the eight years he spent with them.

Jason arrived with the Patriots too late to get in on their Super Bowl fun, but he landed perfectly in the middle of a secondary that had been built to be the best in the league. Stephon Gilmore’s Defensive Player of the Year campaign took most of the attention last year, but McCourty was nearly as good on the other side as well. He only managed a single interception, but he’s never been a major ballhawk (18 interceptions in 11 seasons). He’s just a cornerback who goes out and does his job sticking to the opposing receiver, even as he enters his age 33 season.

 

Buffalo Bills

Best Case Scenario

Buffalo made the playoffs a year ago on the back of a very good defense and a steady, if unspectacular performance from Josh Allen, but headed into the offseason the clear question was where they would go from here. Three years ago they had almost an identical first round exit with Tyrod Taylor at the helm, and they responded by leaping up in the draft to grab Allen. They understand that they need to find some spark on offense to win, and they went aggressively in that direction this offseason.

The addition of Stefon Diggs is a big home run swing. Diggs never produced like he was capable of in Minnesota, always either hampered by injuries or bizarrely buried under less talented receivers. But on pure talent he is a top ten receiver in the league. Sharp route running, deep ball speed, contested catches, plays in open space—he does pretty much everything you could ask for from a wide receiver. And he’s going to have to do a lot this year. The Bills can’t lean as heavily on their defense as they did a year ago, and they will go as far as Allen and Diggs can take them.

Worst Case Scenario

Allen improved significantly from year one to year two, but that was mostly because he started from such a low baseline. By most statistical measures he was somewhere between the 20^th and the 25^th best quarterback in the league last year. Not the disaster he was as a rookie, but not the signs of a future star either. The future of the Bills depends on where he goes from here. Does his process continue linearly, like Jared Goff’s did in his third season when he led the Rams to the Super Bowl? Or does he crash back down as more pressure is put on him, like Mitchell Trubisky did last year?

As far as the defense goes, I’m not going to belabor the point more than I already have. Defense is a lot harder to sustain year-to-year in the NFL than offense. Buffalo’s defense is strong top-to-bottom, and they should get even more impact from second year defensive tackle Ed Oliver to help balance out any natural regression. But teams built on defense always have a bigger downside than those built on offense. Even if this defense drops to around the middle of the pack, that’s going to demand a lot more of their offense. And we haven’t seen proof yet that they are capable of winning this way.

Player to Watch – Devin Singletary, RB

Singletary is one of the easiest breakout candidates to pick in a while. He was a favorite of mine prior to the 2019 draft, and he flashed plenty as a rookie, finishing with 775 yards on the ground on 5.1 yards per carry while splitting time with Frank Gore. Now the Bills are giving him the chance to carry the load, and he is ready to explode.

Singletary is a pain in the ass to try to tackle. He’s extremely quick in tight spaces, and he plays with a low center of gravity that makes him bounce off tackles that should normally bring someone of his small stature down. He’ll struggle some if the Bills slam him too much into the line, but get him into open space and he can do a lot of damage. He still has some work to do in the passing game, both as a receiver and a blocker, but that’s something he can develop on the field. If Allen can take a step forward, this team is set up with enough young talent to be the favorites in the division as early as this season, and then for years to come.

 

Miami Dolphins

Best Case Scenario

Last year went as well as could have been imagined for the Dolphins. They were bad enough that they were able to get a young quarterback to build around in the draft. But they also put up enough fight down the stretch of the season to feel good heading into 2020. They had a few young players step up, Brian Flores looked like he knew what he was doing in his first year as a head coach, and they were able to add some good talent in free agency to set them up for an immediate jump this year.

The Dolphins can challenge for the postseason, and likely even the division as well. The big question remains how long it will take to get Tua Tagovailoa on the field, but with Ryan Fitzpatrick as the other option it actually isn’t as crucial to the outcome of this season. Either quarterback is capable of putting up big numbers, and if their expensive trio of cornerbacks can live up to expectations, this defense could be feisty enough to keep them in most games.

Worst Case Scenario

Miami is a team of wild extremes when you look at their units. They have two quality quarterback options, and an interesting group of wide receivers. They have the potential for the best cornerback group in the league. And outside of that, they are still a complete mess. I don’t expect much from Austin Jackson in the short term (or the long term, if I’m being honest), and their offensive line is going to be the biggest impediment to success for whoever they put out at quarterback. They don’t really have a running game either (Fitzpatrick was their leading rusher a year ago), and that means that the weight of the entire offense is going to be on their quarterback’s arm.

The Dolphins will be better than they were a year ago, but there is still a path that ends with this team selecting in the top ten yet again. Fitzpatrick is notoriously erratic, and if he gets off to a rough start, they may be forced to throw Tagovailoa to the wolves faster than they would like. This will likely be positive for his long-term development, but it won’t help them win games in 2020. And after a 5-11 season left them with a lot of optimism headed into this year, a repeat of the same record could leave them much less satisfied leading into 2021.

Player to Watch – Preston Williams, WR

Probably the best surprise from last year for the Dolphins was the performance of their receiving corps. DeVante Parker finally broke out after years of flashes and disappointment. Allen Hurns was functional as a free agent acquisition. And the rookie Williams exploded onto the scene with 428 yards over the first eight weeks, before a torn ACL ended his season.

Williams is a big receiver at 6-5 who went undrafted due to poor testing results at his Pro Day and some off-the-field issues. But he was phenomenally productive at Colorado State, and he was productive in a bad situation during his debut season in the NFL. He missed the part of the year where the Dolphins seemed to pull things together, and if he had been around to forge a connection with Fitzpatrick, he could have approached 1000 yards. By all reports he is healthy now, and he’ll have the opportunity to prove that he is another young player the Dolphins can build around.

 

New York Jets

Best Case Scenario

Sam Darnold’s first couple years have been rough, but he’s had pretty bad luck over that stretch (not quite Josh Rosen or Dwayne Haskins bad, but close). The Jets put very little effort into building an offensive line in front of him, and their efforts to construct a receiving corps were all failures. They addressed both problems in the draft, taking Mekhi Becton in the first round and Denzel Mims in the second. Both are young players with a few rough edges but tremendous upside, and if they can contribute right away, life will get a lot easier for their young quarterback.

Darnold hasn’t necessarily been bad the entire time. He’s actually finished both of his seasons strong. He had six touchdowns against only one interception in December his rookie season along with averaging 7.45 yards per attempt. And over the final two months of 2019 he threw 14 touchdowns to only five interceptions, while averaging 7.21 yards per pass. These aren’t great numbers by any means, but they are pretty good given the circumstances he found himself in. The future of the Jets organization rests on him being able to sustain these for a whole year. With a better supporting cast around him (and no mono to worry about), he has a better chance in 2020 than in either of the years before.

Worst Case Scenario

Something happens when you trade away every first round pick you make before he even reaches the end of his rookie contract. You end up with a really, really shitty roster. They got a good return for Jamal Adams, but his departure means that between 2013 and 2017 every first round pick but one was traded away by the team, multiple involving contentious relationships with the front office. That is an astonishing rate of talent departure, and Adams is the only case where they really got good value in exchange.

This defense is a catastrophe. They did a good job getting Bradley McDougald in return from Seattle, but safety is the one position they actually aren’t stripped completely bare, thanks to Marcus Maye. There aren’t even the normal journeymen veteran with starting experience that typically fill out such barren rosters. The only young player they have in a position to contribute is Quinnen Williams, who I loved prior to the 2019 draft but who failed to show much of anything his rookie season. Even if he does become a star, I can’t see how this defense finishes outside the bottom ten in the NFL.

Player to Watch – Le’Veon Bell, RB

Bell is hardly a lesser known name, but after a disappointing first season in New York, I think he’s in a position to do much better in 2020. He is coming off the worst season of his career, where he failed to gain even 800 yards on the ground and averaged 3.2 yards per carry. This isn’t surprising to anyone who saw the Jets offensive line a year ago, or to people who have watched Bell. His style relies on patience to wait for holes to open and then explode through them, which only works if he can trust his linemen to sustain their blocks.

After a year off from football it’s fair to wonder if his ability may have eroded some, but when he actually had space to work with a year ago, he looked as dangerous in the open field as he ever was in Pittsburgh. He remains a threat as a receiver out of the backfield, and if they can find a way to keep defenses from keying on him, he’ll be able to do more with the ball after the catch. I don’t really trust Adam Gase to draw up an offense to use Bell properly, but it has to be better than a year ago, if only because of the presence of the behemoth Becton to help clear the way for him.