2020 NFC West Preview

The NFC West might be top-to-bottom the most competitive division in the NFL. It has the last two NFC Super Bowl representatives, both bringing back mostly intact rosters. It has a future Hall of Fame quarterback in Russell Wilson, and a potential emerging star in Kyler Murray. Any team could win this division, and I could see any but Seattle finishing last. With the expanded playoff field I think there’s a better chance than not that three of these teams make the postseason, and that emerging as the division champion is going to be one of the fiercest contests down the stretch of the season.

Seattle Seahawks

Best Case Scenario

I’m picking the Seahawks as the favorites here solely because of Wilson. He is so far above every other quarterback in the division, and in a series of tight races his ability to make plays at the end of games could be the deciding factor. With DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett on the outside, he has the perfect pair of wide receivers to complement his aggressive down-the-field style. If the Seahawks unleash him, he is one of the top five contenders for MVP.

The rest of this roster has some questions, but they have some interesting pieces that could elevate their game in the right circumstances. Their defense is loaded with talented athletes who excel in space, from veteran stalwarts Bobby Wagner and KJ Wright to rookie Jordyn Brooks to expensive acquisition Jamal Adams. Pete Carroll is going to have his hands full figuring out how to use them, but if he can put the pieces together this defense has the potential to be a top ten unit in the league. They won’t be the dominating force they were during the early phases of Wilson’s career, but his game has picked up to the point that he doesn’t need them to be. He’s the best quarterback in the NFC, and he has the ability to carry this team to the Super Bowl again.

Worst Case Scenario

Wilson can carry this team, but they bizarrely don’t seem to want to let him. Seattle has been one of the most run-heavy teams in the league for several years now, and this is no accident. Carroll and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer believe that they can win by keeping the ball out of their best player’s hands, and they are not likely to change that philosophy this season.

This team has been horribly managed, and outside of the quarterback position they likely have the weakest roster in the division. Their offensive line is better than it was a couple years ago, but it’s still below average. They have no reliable pass rusher, unless they are going to make that Adams’s fulltime role. They’ve loaded up with running backs and left their other offensive weapon positions extremely thin. Simply put, the only way this team wins the division is if they ride Wilson’s shoulders the entire way. He is more than capable of carrying them, but it would help if the coaching staff wasn’t going out of their way to hold him back.

Player to Watch – Jarran Reed, DT

Seattle showed little interest in resigning Jadeveon Clowney this offseason. He only had three sacks a year ago, but that was just one short of the team lead, and he was one of the only players on this defense with some potential to do more than that. Last year’s first round selection LJ Collier is taking over for him after not collecting a single sack his rookie season. Bruce Irvin is back, but even in a more pass-rush heavy role since leaving Seattle he only managed around seven sacks a year. Adams has been an effective pass-rusher in small doses, but that still comes to 12 sacks in three years.

The only player on this roster who has ever approached double-digit sacks is Reed. Two years ago he put up 10.5 from the defensive tackle position, and they looked at him as their premier pass-rusher going forward. He responded by getting suspended for the first six games, then collecting only two sacks in the remaining ten. That means that through four seasons he has one double-digit sack year, and five total sacks across the other three combined. Right now his 2018 season looks like a fluke, but the Seahawks desperately need him to prove this wasn’t the case. 

 

San Francisco 49ers

Best Case Scenario

The 49ers made it to the Super Bowl a year ago on the back of an innovative scheme and a dominant defensive line. The scheme is still there, and they bring back most of their offensive weapons. Another year under the belt of Deebo Samuel will only make him more dangerous, and give Kyle Shanahan more ideas of creative ways to use him. Toss in first round pick Brandon Aiyuk—a shifty and dangerous route runner who is pretty much the perfect fit for this offense—and the 49ers should have no trouble repeating last year’s performance on that side of the ball.

On the other side they are going to be without DeForest Buckner, which is a pretty significant loss. But they are so deep and talented on the defensive line that they can come as close to absorbing this as anyone can, helped by first round selection Javon Kinlaw. Nick Bosa will be even better in his second season, and they should be able to continue to terrorize teams up front. This roster was built with a long-term window in mind, and that isn’t going anywhere.

Worst Case Scenario

The 49ers did it as effectively as any team I have ever seen, but the style in which they win games is the sort of thing that always leaves me a little wary. This is a team that wants to run the ball, produce an occasional big play using play-action and misdirection, and torment opposing quarterbacks with a lethal pass rush.

This is a perfectly fine strategy, but it only works if you get out to an early lead. The 49ers ran a total of 31 plays last year when trailing by 10 points or more, the fewest by any team in the league (Kansas City had 33, and Baltimore at 84 was the only other team below 100). This makes it easy to keep the ball on the ground and get after the opposing quarterback. But if they have a few more games this year where they fall behind early, the pressure is going to shift onto Jimmy Garoppolo. And we have yet to see any proof that he is capable of carrying that weight on his shoulders.

Player to Watch – Jimmie Ward, S

It’s taken a while for the 2014 first round pick to really emerge, but last year it seemed to happen. His first couple seasons he bounced around between a few positions as kind of a slot cornerback/safety hybrid, and it was only when defensive coordinator Robert Saleh arrived that he really settled into a steady role.

Saleh comes from the Seattle defensive coaching tree, and he runs the same sort of Cover 3 system that they made so successful early last decade (with Richard Sherman in the exact same role). Ward is their poor man’s version of Earl Thomas. He sits in the middle of the field, and he erases throwing windows over the top. He’s not a star by any means, and he has only two interceptions his entire career. But he’s a useful player on a team that doesn’t need much more than bare competence behind their fierce pass rush.

 

Arizona Cardinals

Best Case Scenario

Kyler Murray was effective if inconsistent his rookie year, which is about the best you can hope for from a one-year college starter thrust into a bad situation. Now along with head coach Kliff Kingsbury and a reloaded offense, he is ready to start lighting up scoreboards. The Cardinals used four draft picks on wide receivers in 2019, and then they went out and robbed the Texans for DeAndre Hopkins this offseason. With Hopkins, Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk, Andy Isabella, KeeSean Johnson, and possibly even Hakeem Butler, they can roll out four or five dangerous receivers on a consistent basis with a coach and quarterback who know how to take advantage of the full breadth of the field.

This offense is going to score points. They don’t have much of an offensive line, but Murray is capable of creating big plays under pressure with both his legs and his arm. Kenyan Drake probably isn’t a bellcow back, but he is dangerous enough to bust a few big plays as a runner and as a receiver. Their defense still has a long way to go, and they will likely lose a couple games even while putting up 30+ points on the scoreboard. But they will sure as hell be fun to watch, and if their offense reaches the heights I think it can, they will absolutely be in position to compete for a playoff spot.

Worst Case Scenario

We’ve seen so many quarterbacks explode into MVP caliber players quickly over the past few years, and we forget sometimes that it can take a little while to put it together. Two years ago Murray thought he would be playing baseball at this point, and he’s more raw than multi-year college starters like Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Deshaun Watson. Even with the talent he has on the outside, there are going to be rough patches. He will make mistakes, and they will likely cost the Cardinals games.

And the defense, well the defense could still be a mess. Chandler Jones and Patrick Peterson are excellent players, but both were on the team a year ago when they pretty much couldn’t stop anyone. The only notable addition they made this offseason was first round pick Isaiah Simmons, and I think he’s going to have a rough transition to the NFL as coaches try to figure out just what the best use of him is. This defense is going to put a lot of pressure on their offense, which is going to put a lot of pressure on Murray. And I’m not convinced he’s ready to handle that yet.

Player to Watch – Andy Isabella, WR

Arizona’s receiving corps is deep, and it is also pretty versatile. Hopkins is an overwhelming boundary receiver with a huge catch radius who dominates working the sidelines. Fitzgerald has transitioned into a big-bodied slot receiver in the middle of the field. Kirk is also best in the slot, though he excels through quick cuts rather than size and strength.

What they really don’t have among their three established receivers is speed. That’s where Isabella comes in. He’s a straight-shot home run hitter, with 4.31 speed and a long track record in college of breaking off huge plays. He is tiny by NFL standards, and he doesn’t run a particularly developed route tree. But if the Cardinals can establish him as a legitimate deep threat, his ability to stretch the field will keep defenses honest and open up a lot of windows for Kyler to hit underneath.

 

Los Angeles Rams

Best Case Scenario

Last season was a disappointment, but the Rams still came very close to clawing their way into the playoffs at the end of the year. The shine has faded some from Sean McVay and moved across the division to Shanahan, but he is still an effective play caller with plenty of talent to work with on offense. There are still times that Jared Goff can look like an excellent quarterback when the line holds firm in front of him. If they can find a way to keep him upright, McVay is still one of the best in the league at scheming receivers open down the field.

On defense they have two big names and pretty much nothing else, but those two names are as big as they come. Aaron Donald continues to put together one of the all-time great careers by any player at any position, and at only 29 years old he should still have gas in the tank. There are more questions around Jalen Ramsey, who has been inconsistent the past couple years after exploding onto the scene his first two seasons. But he remains the most talented cornerback in the NFL. If he can pull things together, a dominant pass rusher and a lockdown cornerback are enough to make this defense a force to be reckoned with.

Worst Case Scenario

This is a different team than the one that made the Super Bowl two years ago. The core is mostly intact—Goff and Donald are still around, and they managed to convince Andrew Whitworth to come back for another year—but their offense is going to have to look very different. Todd Gurley and Brandin Cooks are both gone, removing the two best overall athletes from the unit. They’re going to have to rely on a running back by committee approach rather than leaning on a single feature back, and they can’t go nearly as deep at wide receiver.

The Rams are in a rough transition period. They traded away their entire future to go all-in on the past couple seasons, and it didn’t pay off. Now they don’t even have championship memories to lean on as they deal with the consequences of trading every first round pick over a five year stretch. The margins of this roster are incredibly thin, and if their stars can’t carry them—if they get injured or start to show signs of age—this team could bottom out very quickly, and have nothing to show for it still owing a pick to Jacksonville in next year’s draft.

Player to Watch – Tyler Higbee, TE

Higbee has flown under the radar for years, for several reasons. First of all, he fell in the draft due to an injury that kept him out of the Combine and a truly horrific off-the-field incident (he assaulted a Middle Eastern man while shouting about ISIS). The Rams selected him in the fourth round, but for the first few seasons they really didn’t use a tight end. His career high in receiving yards entering last year was 295, before putting together 69 catches for 734 yards, both more than in his prior three seasons combined.

I mentioned that the Rams are going to have to adjust their offense going forward, and Higbee is going to be a big part of that. They can no longer run out three above-average wide receivers on every play, and the extra targets are going to have to go to their tight end. At 6-6 and 255 pounds, Higbee is a massive player who should be able to overwhelm defenders in the middle of the field. He’s the sort of weapon Goff didn’t have when the Rams were at the top of the league a few years ago, and the sort who could be perfect for the next phase of this team.