The NFL season officially kicked off a couple days ago, but there’s still time for me to get my final predictions for the season in. Earlier this week I went through the entire league and predicted the records of each team. Now it’s time to get to the other half of my predictions: the end of season awards, and the trivial little thing called the Super Bowl.
Offensive Rookie of the Year – Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
I was a little tempted to flip this to Clyde Edwards-Helaire after his stellar debut on Thursday, but I’ll stick with the pick I’ve had for a while. Edwards-Helaire is certainly set up to succeed, and he was more of a feature back for Kansas City than I expected prior to his debut. Most of his yards came against very light boxes, and the Chiefs are going to face a lot of those this year, so I don’t expect his stats to completely drop off. But this offense is powered by Patrick Mahomes, and at some point this year they’re going to stop bothering with running the football at all.
It’s hard to pick against a quarterback. Burrow is the only rookie to have earned a starting role already, and he’s actually in a pretty decent situation. The offensive line in front of him is a problem, but he’s very good at working around pressure to complete plays down the field. Cincinnati at least has some weapons to work with on offense, and there will be a lot of weeks where he puts up big numbers just trying to keep the Bengals in the game. He won’t be enough to get them to the playoffs, but I wouldn’t be stunned if he breaks quite a few rookie volume passing records.
The other name I’ll throw out is CeeDee Lamb. Of the receivers taken in the first round, he is both the most pro-ready and in the best situation. Dak Prescott was near the top of the league in passing yards a year ago, and now he has a true second target opposite Amari Cooper. Lamb will get off to a fast start, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him make it to 1000 yards this season.
Defensive Rookie of the Year – Chase Young, EDGE, Washington Football Team
Yeah, I know, a bit predictable picking the top two players in the draft as rookie of the year winners. I suppose I could go really out on a limb and select number three pick Jeff Okudah here, but when in doubt I’ll go with the freakishly gifted pass rusher. Young might be slow coming along as part of a deep defensive line in Washington, but when he gets on the field he has the sort of talent that really can’t be slowed down.
If the sack numbers aren’t there for Young however, I could see him being slightly overlooked due to playing on a miserable Washington team. Voters could choose to go for someone contributing for a more competitive defense. The most likely pick there is Patrick Queen in Baltimore. I’m not the biggest fan of Queen, but he’s in a good situation behind a talented defensive front that should keep him protected from blockers. When he’s in space, he is a truly gifted playmaker with tremendous speed and developing instincts, the sort of player who can make flash plays for a defense that will be in a lot of high profile situations.
Comeback Player of the Year – Cam Newton, QB, New England Patriots
Newton won’t reach the heights of earlier in his career, but he’ll be good enough to take the Patriots to the playoffs, and that will earn him this award. For a long stretch of the offseason he remained unsigned as teams across the league were skeptical of his health, and health remains a big questionmark every time he steps onto the field. But if he’s 100%, he’s a veteran quarterback with impressive physical tools working for a coach who knows how to put his players in position to succeed. The Patriots don’t have much else on offense, so the success they have will largely be due to Newton.
There are definitely some intriguing options out there for this award. JJ Watt was impressive in the opening night game against Kansas City, and if he can play all sixteen games he is still one of the best defensive players in the league. Le’Veon Bell should bounce back now that he has something resembling an offensive line in front of him. Trent Williams and Rob Gronkowski are both interesting cases, since what they’re coming back from are their own decisions to sit out last season. I’m not sure what to expect from either of them, and I think voters for this award might view their cases with some skepticism.
Coach of the Year – Bill Belichick, New England Patriots
Belichick has been unanimously viewed as the best coach in football for more than a decade now, but he hasn’t actually won this award since 2010. This is usually given out to the coach of a team that exceeds expectations, and until now it’s been basically impossible for the Patriots to perform better than everyone thought they would coming into the season. But if he can win this division after losing Tom Brady, as I expect he will, he’ll likely run away with this award.
If we want to go the more traditional route of the coach of a team that makes a leap forward, there are a few options. Kliff Kingsbury could get the award if the Cardinals take enough of a jump to make the playoffs. Jon Gruden will get some buzz if the Raiders team he built in his own image can snag a Wild Card spot. And though I think this is unlikely, if the Cowboys run away with the division, Mike McCarthy could get some votes as a sort of apology for the heavy criticism he received over his last couple years in Green Bay. Bruce Arians will also get consideration if he incorporates Tom Brady and takes the Buccaneers to the playoffs, not that I expect that to happen.
This is a hard award to pick, because it’s usually the coach of a team that comes out of nowhere. But unless someone like Miami, Cleveland, or Denver makes a surprise run, I think it’s Belichick’s to lose.
Defensive Player of the Year – TJ Watt, Edge, Pittsburgh Steelers
After a year off, it would make sense for the voters to go back to Aaron Donald, who is clearly the best defensive player in the league. But in the past ten years only one player has won this award without his team making the playoffs. This was a major reason why Donald didn’t get the award last year, and since I expect the Rams to miss the postseason again, I can’t bring myself to select him.
So let’s go through the teams I actually picked to make the playoffs. The Raiders, Titans, Cowboys, and Falcons don’t really have anyone I could see winning it. Fletcher Cox for the Eagles and Cameron Jordan for the Saints are both excellent veteran players, but they’ve never really earned buzz for this award before, and I don’t see them breaking out at this point in their careers. Calais Campbell is in a similar position in Baltimore where he is slightly past his prime. The best bet for the Ravens might be Marcus Peters, if he can continue to put up interceptions at an absurd rate as he has throughout his career.
The Packers have some interesting young players who could make the leap, notably Kenny Clark and Jaire Alexander, but I don’t really see either having the ceiling to be among the best in the league. Nick Bosa does have that potential in San Francisco, but I’ll give him another year or two to season before I’m ready to declare him the best in the league.
Stephon Gilmore won the award a year ago, but it will be hard for him to live up to the standard he set in 2019. JJ Watt is similarly hampered by ridiculous expectations. He’s still incredible when he is healthy, but he isn’t the utterly dominant force he was in his prime, and people will hold that against him. In Seattle Jamal Adams could emerge as a dominant force, but I’ve never been in love with his game, and I don’t think he’ll stack up the stats to get into the conversation, especially after he spent an offseason being hyped as a one-of-a-kind playmaker.
That leaves two teams. The Chiefs could get a unique playmaking season from Tyrann Mathieu, but the better bet for them is Chris Jones. Jones was the best player on the field in the Super Bowl, and he’s only a year removed from having 15.5 sacks (he already has 1.5 this season, though sacking Deshaun Watson barely counts as an accomplishment at this point).
But in the end I’m going to go with Watt in Pittsburgh. He was in the running for the award a year ago, but he split some of the vote with his teammate Minkah Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick is still amazing, but his interception numbers will decline this year as offenses stop challenging him. There’s really nothing offenses can do to avoid Watt. He had 14.5 sacks, eight forced fumbles, and two interceptions a year ago. He’s still only 25 years old, and there are clear aspects of his game that he can improve to push him to the upper echelon of NFL defenders.
MVP – Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
This is a far less interesting award to pick than Defensive Player of the Year, because the pool of players is much smaller. It’s going to be a quarterback, and it’s going to come from a playoff team. This year at least that means I have 14 options, rather than just the 12 I had in the past. But it’s still a pretty limited selection.
Of the teams I picked to make the playoffs, the quarterbacks can be divided into three tiers. The first tier is the mid-level quarterbacks, the players who are good enough to make the postseason but not enough to win this award. Derek Carr and Carson Wentz came close in the past thanks to unsustainable TD-to-INT ratios, and I suppose they could do it again. But I feel like at this point we know what we’re getting from them, as well as from Jimmy Garoppolo. Ryan Tannehill is a bit more of a wild card, since his performance down the stretch last year truly was MVP worthy. But I think it’s more likely he regresses to somewhere between what we saw in 2019 and what he was every year prior to that.
The second tier is the veterans. These players were all MVP caliber earlier in their careers, and maybe they have the potential to pull out some old magic. But most have already started their decline, and they’ll make the postseason due to basic competence and loaded rosters. Of them I think Drew Brees has the best chance of actually winning the award, but he also has the best chance of completely falling off a cliff. We know what we’re going to get from Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Cam Newton (barring injury). They are still good players, but they aren’t among the elite of the league anymore.
The final five quarterbacks are the real contenders. Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are the past two MVPs, and obviously they will be in the running again. I think Jackson will be hit by some of the same fatigue and regression that dragged on Mahomes a year ago. Dak Prescott and Deshaun Watson are another pair of excellent young quarterbacks who could take a run at the award. Prescott though is a bit behind the others in terms of overall ability, and I don’t think he has what it takes to keep up with them over the course of a full season. Watson is hampered by his supporting cast and his coaching staff. He has the potential to win an MVP down the road, but he doesn’t have what he needs around him right now.
Russell Wilson is in a similar position. In the right circumstances, I think he could put up numbers every bit as impressive as Mahomes’s. But the Seahawks seem committed to keeping the ball out of his hands unless absolutely necessary, stifling both him and the team as a whole. Wilson’s sheer talent has been enough to keep them from realizing the error of their ways, and this year will look a lot like last year in Seattle. They’ll grind the ball on the ground for three quarters, and they’ll only let their best player take charge late in the game once they’ve fallen behind.
Mahomes is the best of all possible worlds. He clearly has the talent, and at only 24 years old he actually has the ability to get even better. He’s a smarter quarterback than he was two years ago, and he is now more capable of adjusting to anything defenses throw at him. His offense is loaded with talent at pretty much every position, and his coach is willing to let him air the ball out as much as he wants. About the only thing that can hold Mahomes back is that he will likely never match his numbers from his insane debut season, but he’ll be far enough ahead of everyone else that it won’t particularly matter.
Super Bowl – New Orleans Saints over Kansas City Chiefs
It's hard not to pick the two teams I chose to have the best records as the two that make it to the Super Bowl. Especially this year, when the one seeds have such a clear advantage over the other teams that make the playoffs. I picked New Orleans and Kansas City to win the most games in their conferences, because I think they're the best team in their conferences. And from there they have the easiest roads to make it to the title game.
As far as the matchup between these two, it really is a tossup. I'm probably picking against the Chiefs just because I don't want to go the "easy" route of choosing the defending champions, but I can make a case for the Saints winning this game as well. They are one of the few teams with the depth and talent in the secondary to at least frustrate Kansas City's offense, and they have the potential in the pass rush to hassle Mahomes. Scoring on Kansas City isn't a problem, but the Saints are one of the few teams with the ability to truly score with Kansas City. They can keep up in a shootout, or they can scrap through a messier game. A lot depends on what they're going to get from their 41 year old quarterback, but if Brees is still Brees, this is the most complete team in football.
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