Week One Headlines vs Reality

The first week of the NFL season is always a tricky time. After months looking forward to the year, we suddenly have actual football to react to. It’s just one game for each team, but it’s football all the same. And it’s impossible not to draw some conclusions, even if we know there is still a very long season ahead.

Each year I break down some of the things that happened in Week One to try to figure out if they are actually real or if they are just one-time flashes. A year these reactions included Mitchell Trubisky being terrible, the Browns heading for another disappointing season, and Baltimore being one of the best teams in the league. They also included New England being unstoppable once they added Antonio Brown, Gardner Minshew being the savior of the Jaguars, and the Vikings having one of the most dangerous offenses in the league.

For this year I’m going to run through some of the headlines that may be coming out of this past weekend’s games. In order from least to most reasonable, I will give my interpretation of whether we should expect these initial trends to continue.

Headline: Josh Allen is Ready to Break Out as a Star

Reality: Josh Allen Continues to Improve But Is Still Average At Best

Josh Allen had the best game of his career in the most Josh Allen way possible. He made plays with his legs and his arms, and he also left a lot of opportunities on the field. He set a career high in passing yardage, but the offense still only put up 27 points against a miserable Jets team. At times he looked efficient identifying targets and hitting them in stride. At others he missed open receivers in the endzone. He was a threat with his legs, and he also ended two drives in the red zone with ugly fumbles.

Allen is still a work in progress. He wasn’t as good last year as his supporters believed, or as bad as his detractors seem to want him to be. He was a below average quarterback and trending up. This past weekend he was average, which is an improvement. His development appears to be continuing on track, but it’s not going to be an overnight thing.

 

Headline: Washington and Jacksonville Might Not Be Terrible!

Reality: Philadelphia and Indianapolis Might Be Terrible

The two biggest surprise outcomes of this week were upset victories by a pair of teams that were expected to be battling it out for the top pick in the draft. Washington came from three scores down to knock off Philadelphia, while the Jaguars fought with the Colts to earn a victory of their own. They won in very different ways, but I think in both cases the outcomes of these games say more about the playoff hopes of the teams that lost than the teams that won.

Gardner Minshew had a very crisp, efficient day. He completed 19 of 20 passes for three touchdowns and started to raise questions about whether the Jaguars should continue their plan to try to tank and get a top quarterback in next year’s draft. But while it’s never easy to complete that many passes against an NFL defense, Minshew’s day was about as bland as it is possible to get. He averaged only 9.1 yards per completion, and he didn’t take a single shot down the field. He was able to work on easy passes because the Colts consistently surrendered easy passes. That’s a problem against a quarterback like Minshew, and it will be a disaster against many of the better quarterbacks they will face down the road.

Dwayne Haskins didn’t have a great game against the Eagles, but he was solid enough considering how much pressure he was under, and he stepped up late in the game to help them take the lead. The bigger concern for Philadelphia is their offense. They could not protect Carson Wentz at all against Washington’s formidable pass rush, and Wentz responded by playing what was likely the worst game of his career. Their line should improve when Lane Johnson gets healthy, but Wentz still shows no signs of taking the next step into the tier of elite quarterbacks in the league. And without him playing at a high level, this offense is basically lifeless.

 

Headline: Minnesota’s Defensive Reign Is Over

Reality: The Vikings Are Going to Need Time to Pull Their Defense Together

The most points scored in the opening weekend of NFL action was 43 by Green Bay against Minnesota. It wasn’t necessarily a huge surprise to see it from the Packers, but it was kind of shocking to see this allowed by a Vikings team that has been excellent on defense ever since Mike Zimmer was hired. Green Bay’s offense moved up and down the field at will on Sunday. They only punted once, and that came after a receiver dropped an easy first down reception. It only got worse as the game went on, as they scored touchdowns on their final three drives (not counting the knees they took at the end).

The issues for Minnesota’s defense were pretty obvious. They couldn’t get pressure on the quarterback, and they couldn’t keep up with Green Bay’s receivers. These are both things that should hopefully improve as the season goes along. Danielle Hunter missed the game with an injury, but he could be back healthy as soon as Week Four. Yannick Ngakoue didn’t do much, but he still isn’t fully in game shape after missing training camp. As they reach full strength, this pass rush should appear.

The secondary is a bigger concern. Their young cornerbacks will improve with more experience, but they are going to need a lot of improvement to make this defense functional. Mike Hughes and Holton Hill were both terrible, and they’ll have to work hard to hold off rookie Jeff Gladney. Even then this secondary is going to continue to be a weakness. It’s going to be on Zimmer to adjust his scheme to cover for this. If there’s any coach in the league that can pull this off, it’s Zimmer, but this will also likely take a few weeks to get sorted out.

 

Headline: Drew Brees and Tom Brady Are Washed

Reality: Brees and Brady Look Like They’ve Begun Their Decline, Though We Don’t Know How Much Yet

A division clash between two of the best quarterbacks in NFL history was bound to get a lot of hype, but it ended up being not quite the game we expected. The final score was decently high, but stylistically it wasn’t exactly a shootout. Both quarterbacks played below their usual standards, even if they did so in different ways.

For the majority of the game Brady was actually decent. He was particularly impressive throwing down the field, which was a big question for him coming into Bruce Arians’s vertical passing scheme. But two of the biggest plays of the game were the pair of interceptions he threw that led directly to Saints touchdowns. The first was arguably a miscommunication with his receiver, but even if Mike Evans continued his route, he wasn’t open and the throw wasn’t on target. The second interception was simply a bad read and a bad throw, the sort of mistake we're not used to seeing from Brady.

Brees is a different story. Late in the game he managed to hit a deep ball down the sidelines to Jared Cook, but for most of the game he looked unwilling to even try going down the field. One of Brees’s strengths has always been his short area athleticism that allowed him to move in the pocket, and that seemed like it was gone on Sunday. He was a sitting duck back there, and if he wasn’t able to get the ball out of his hands right away, there was nothing he could do.

Both of these quarterbacks disappointed in their debuts to the season. They were also both facing off against underappreciated defenses, and I think they will bounce back against lesser competition. But if these teams are going to make the runs they hope to have, they are going to need their Hall of Fame quarterbacks to play like Hall of Famers against excellent defenses.

 

Headline: Cam Newton Is A Superhero

Reality: Cam Newton Is Cam Newton, Both the Good and the Bad

Beating the Dolphins is never flashy, but the Patriots did everything they needed to in their first game. They showed they have some offense with their new quarterback, behind a scheme that leaned heavily on the running game and the threat provided by Newton’s legs. He was effective enough through the air with 15 completions on 19 attempts for 155 yards, but where he really boosted the offense was on the ground, with 15 carries for 75 yards and two touchdowns. Between all ball carriers the Patriots ran the ball twice as often as they passed it, a formula they will happily replicate going forward.

Sooner or later they will expand their passing attack out of necessity, but Newton is capable of doing what they need from him there. It was certainly refreshing to see him performing well again, after he was so hampered by injuries during his two games in Carolina a year ago. He’s healthy, and when he’s healthy he’s a very good starting quarterback.

Only time will tell though if he can stay healthy, and whether or not this was a worthwhile investment by New England. It’s a little troubling to see how much they are relying on him in the running game. 15 carries are a lot for anyone, much less a 31 year old quarterback who hasn’t played a full season since 2017. A few more weeks of effective and healthy performance will go a long way towards convincing me, but for now I’ll just be enjoying it with bated breath.

 

Headline: Aaron Rodgers is Back

Reality: Aaron Rodgers Has Fixed Some of His Issues

Rodgers was fantastic on Sunday. Much better than he’s been over the past couple years, though still not at his former MVP level. He still erred on the conservative side for most of the game. In the second half he took a couple more shots down the field, but for the most of the first half he rarely threw the ball more than ten yards past the line of scrimmage. On average he held the ball only 2.3 seconds before releasing it, which would have been the fastest time in the league a year ago. This worked against a Vikings team that was playing incredibly soft coverage out of fear of their young cornerbacks being beaten deep, but he may have to alter his style against stronger defenses.

The biggest difference from the Rodgers we’ve seen over the past few years was mechanical. He talked about working on his footwork over the offseason, and he did a much better job not fading away from throws or relying entirely on his arm strength. Last year the Packers wouldn’t have been able to move up and down the field in small chunks like they did against the Vikings on Sunday, because they couldn’t count on Rodgers to consistently hit these easy throws. Now that he’s started to take this part of his game seriously, defenses are going to have to change how they play the Packers, which will only open up more opportunities down the field.

 

Headline: Joe Burrow is Great, but the Bengals Are Still the Bengals

Reality: Cincinnati Desperately Needs to Nail the Next Couple Drafts

Burrow is the sort of player who can turn around the culture of an entire franchise. But it’s not going to happen in his first game, or likely even in his first year, as we saw in a Week One loss to the Chargers. Burrow was fine, and he’ll soon be very good. The Bengals will not.

A few years ago the Texans drafted a franchise quarterback, and from that point on they’ve made every mistake a franchise can make when building around him. And yet they’re still competitive, because they had some structure already in place around him when he got there. Players like DeAndre Hopkins and Jadeveon Clowney were given away, but they still have a supporting cast that includes a star like JJ Watt to support their young quarterback.

That isn’t the case in Cincinnati. They have some good receivers, but otherwise Burrow is operating on his own. That’s enough to keep them competitive against another mediocre team like the Chargers, but it won’t get them to the playoffs. Not this year, not next year, and not anytime in the future unless they can use their draft picks wisely to really build something around him.

 

Headline: The Jets Are a Crime Against Football

Reality: The Jets Are a Crime Against Football

Sam Darnold was bad, the offensive line couldn’t keep him upright, the receivers couldn’t get open, Le’Veon Bell got hurt, and they let an average Bills offense move at will on them. This was the worst performance by any team this weekend. It will not be the worst performance the Jets have this year.

2020 NFL Preview Part Two

The NFL season officially kicked off a couple days ago, but there’s still time for me to get my final predictions for the season in. Earlier this week I went through the entire league and predicted the records of each team. Now it’s time to get to the other half of my predictions: the end of season awards, and the trivial little thing called the Super Bowl.

Offensive Rookie of the Year – Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals

I was a little tempted to flip this to Clyde Edwards-Helaire after his stellar debut on Thursday, but I’ll stick with the pick I’ve had for a while. Edwards-Helaire is certainly set up to succeed, and he was more of a feature back for Kansas City than I expected prior to his debut. Most of his yards came against very light boxes, and the Chiefs are going to face a lot of those this year, so I don’t expect his stats to completely drop off. But this offense is powered by Patrick Mahomes, and at some point this year they’re going to stop bothering with running the football at all.

It’s hard to pick against a quarterback. Burrow is the only rookie to have earned a starting role already, and he’s actually in a pretty decent situation. The offensive line in front of him is a problem, but he’s very good at working around pressure to complete plays down the field. Cincinnati at least has some weapons to work with on offense, and there will be a lot of weeks where he puts up big numbers just trying to keep the Bengals in the game. He won’t be enough to get them to the playoffs, but I wouldn’t be stunned if he breaks quite a few rookie volume passing records.

The other name I’ll throw out is CeeDee Lamb. Of the receivers taken in the first round, he is both the most pro-ready and in the best situation. Dak Prescott was near the top of the league in passing yards a year ago, and now he has a true second target opposite Amari Cooper. Lamb will get off to a fast start, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him make it to 1000 yards this season.

 

Defensive Rookie of the Year – Chase Young, EDGE, Washington Football Team

Yeah, I know, a bit predictable picking the top two players in the draft as rookie of the year winners. I suppose I could go really out on a limb and select number three pick Jeff Okudah here, but when in doubt I’ll go with the freakishly gifted pass rusher. Young might be slow coming along as part of a deep defensive line in Washington, but when he gets on the field he has the sort of talent that really can’t be slowed down.

If the sack numbers aren’t there for Young however, I could see him being slightly overlooked due to playing on a miserable Washington team. Voters could choose to go for someone contributing for a more competitive defense. The most likely pick there is Patrick Queen in Baltimore. I’m not the biggest fan of Queen, but he’s in a good situation behind a talented defensive front that should keep him protected from blockers. When he’s in space, he is a truly gifted playmaker with tremendous speed and developing instincts, the sort of player who can make flash plays for a defense that will be in a lot of high profile situations.

 

Comeback Player of the Year – Cam Newton, QB, New England Patriots

Newton won’t reach the heights of earlier in his career, but he’ll be good enough to take the Patriots to the playoffs, and that will earn him this award. For a long stretch of the offseason he remained unsigned as teams across the league were skeptical of his health, and health remains a big questionmark every time he steps onto the field. But if he’s 100%, he’s a veteran quarterback with impressive physical tools working for a coach who knows how to put his players in position to succeed. The Patriots don’t have much else on offense, so the success they have will largely be due to Newton. 

There are definitely some intriguing options out there for this award. JJ Watt was impressive in the opening night game against Kansas City, and if he can play all sixteen games he is still one of the best defensive players in the league. Le’Veon Bell should bounce back now that he has something resembling an offensive line in front of him. Trent Williams and Rob Gronkowski are both interesting cases, since what they’re coming back from are their own decisions to sit out last season. I’m not sure what to expect from either of them, and I think voters for this award might view their cases with some skepticism.

 

Coach of the Year – Bill Belichick, New England Patriots

Belichick has been unanimously viewed as the best coach in football for more than a decade now, but he hasn’t actually won this award since 2010. This is usually given out to the coach of a team that exceeds expectations, and until now it’s been basically impossible for the Patriots to perform better than everyone thought they would coming into the season. But if he can win this division after losing Tom Brady, as I expect he will, he’ll likely run away with this award.

If we want to go the more traditional route of the coach of a team that makes a leap forward, there are a few options. Kliff Kingsbury could get the award if the Cardinals take enough of a jump to make the playoffs. Jon Gruden will get some buzz if the Raiders team he built in his own image can snag a Wild Card spot. And though I think this is unlikely, if the Cowboys run away with the division, Mike McCarthy could get some votes as a sort of apology for the heavy criticism he received over his last couple years in Green Bay. Bruce Arians will also get consideration if he incorporates Tom Brady and takes the Buccaneers to the playoffs, not that I expect that to happen.

This is a hard award to pick, because it’s usually the coach of a team that comes out of nowhere. But unless someone like Miami, Cleveland, or Denver makes a surprise run, I think it’s Belichick’s to lose.

 

Defensive Player of the Year – TJ Watt, Edge, Pittsburgh Steelers

After a year off, it would make sense for the voters to go back to Aaron Donald, who is clearly the best defensive player in the league. But in the past ten years only one player has won this award without his team making the playoffs. This was a major reason why Donald didn’t get the award last year, and since I expect the Rams to miss the postseason again, I can’t bring myself to select him. 

So let’s go through the teams I actually picked to make the playoffs. The Raiders, Titans, Cowboys, and Falcons don’t really have anyone I could see winning it. Fletcher Cox for the Eagles and Cameron Jordan for the Saints are both excellent veteran players, but they’ve never really earned buzz for this award before, and I don’t see them breaking out at this point in their careers. Calais Campbell is in a similar position in Baltimore where he is slightly past his prime. The best bet for the Ravens might be Marcus Peters, if he can continue to put up interceptions at an absurd rate as he has throughout his career.

The Packers have some interesting young players who could make the leap, notably Kenny Clark and Jaire Alexander, but I don’t really see either having the ceiling to be among the best in the league. Nick Bosa does have that potential in San Francisco, but I’ll give him another year or two to season before I’m ready to declare him the best in the league.

Stephon Gilmore won the award a year ago, but it will be hard for him to live up to the standard he set in 2019. JJ Watt is similarly hampered by ridiculous expectations. He’s still incredible when he is healthy, but he isn’t the utterly dominant force he was in his prime, and people will hold that against him. In Seattle Jamal Adams could emerge as a dominant force, but I’ve never been in love with his game, and I don’t think he’ll stack up the stats to get into the conversation, especially after he spent an offseason being hyped as a one-of-a-kind playmaker.

That leaves two teams. The Chiefs could get a unique playmaking season from Tyrann Mathieu, but the better bet for them is Chris Jones. Jones was the best player on the field in the Super Bowl, and he’s only a year removed from having 15.5 sacks (he already has 1.5 this season, though sacking Deshaun Watson barely counts as an accomplishment at this point). 

But in the end I’m going to go with Watt in Pittsburgh. He was in the running for the award a year ago, but he split some of the vote with his teammate Minkah Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick is still amazing, but his interception numbers will decline this year as offenses stop challenging him. There’s really nothing offenses can do to avoid Watt. He had 14.5 sacks, eight forced fumbles, and two interceptions a year ago. He’s still only 25 years old, and there are clear aspects of his game that he can improve to push him to the upper echelon of NFL defenders.

 

MVP – Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

This is a far less interesting award to pick than Defensive Player of the Year, because the pool of players is much smaller. It’s going to be a quarterback, and it’s going to come from a playoff team. This year at least that means I have 14 options, rather than just the 12 I had in the past. But it’s still a pretty limited selection.

Of the teams I picked to make the playoffs, the quarterbacks can be divided into three tiers. The first tier is the mid-level quarterbacks, the players who are good enough to make the postseason but not enough to win this award. Derek Carr and Carson Wentz came close in the past thanks to unsustainable TD-to-INT ratios, and I suppose they could do it again. But I feel like at this point we know what we’re getting from them, as well as from Jimmy Garoppolo. Ryan Tannehill is a bit more of a wild card, since his performance down the stretch last year truly was MVP worthy. But I think it’s more likely he regresses to somewhere between what we saw in 2019 and what he was every year prior to that. 

The second tier is the veterans. These players were all MVP caliber earlier in their careers, and maybe they have the potential to pull out some old magic. But most have already started their decline, and they’ll make the postseason due to basic competence and loaded rosters. Of them I think Drew Brees has the best chance of actually winning the award, but he also has the best chance of completely falling off a cliff. We know what we’re going to get from Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Cam Newton (barring injury). They are still good players, but they aren’t among the elite of the league anymore.

The final five quarterbacks are the real contenders. Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are the past two MVPs, and obviously they will be in the running again. I think Jackson will be hit by some of the same fatigue and regression that dragged on Mahomes a year ago. Dak Prescott and Deshaun Watson are another pair of excellent young quarterbacks who could take a run at the award. Prescott though is a bit behind the others in terms of overall ability, and I don’t think he has what it takes to keep up with them over the course of a full season. Watson is hampered by his supporting cast and his coaching staff. He has the potential to win an MVP down the road, but he doesn’t have what he needs around him right now. 

Russell Wilson is in a similar position. In the right circumstances, I think he could put up numbers every bit as impressive as Mahomes’s. But the Seahawks seem committed to keeping the ball out of his hands unless absolutely necessary, stifling both him and the team as a whole. Wilson’s sheer talent has been enough to keep them from realizing the error of their ways, and this year will look a lot like last year in Seattle. They’ll grind the ball on the ground for three quarters, and they’ll only let their best player take charge late in the game once they’ve fallen behind.

Mahomes is the best of all possible worlds. He clearly has the talent, and at only 24 years old he actually has the ability to get even better. He’s a smarter quarterback than he was two years ago, and he is now more capable of adjusting to anything defenses throw at him. His offense is loaded with talent at pretty much every position, and his coach is willing to let him air the ball out as much as he wants. About the only thing that can hold Mahomes back is that he will likely never match his numbers from his insane debut season, but he’ll be far enough ahead of everyone else that it won’t particularly matter.

 

Super Bowl – New Orleans Saints over Kansas City Chiefs

It's hard not to pick the two teams I chose to have the best records as the two that make it to the Super Bowl. Especially this year, when the one seeds have such a clear advantage over the other teams that make the playoffs. I picked New Orleans and Kansas City to win the most games in their conferences, because I think they're the best team in their conferences. And from there they have the easiest roads to make it to the title game.

As far as the matchup between these two, it really is a tossup. I'm probably picking against the Chiefs just because I don't want to go the "easy" route of choosing the defending champions, but I can make a case for the Saints winning this game as well. They are one of the few teams with the depth and talent in the secondary to at least frustrate Kansas City's offense, and they have the potential in the pass rush to hassle Mahomes. Scoring on Kansas City isn't a problem, but the Saints are one of the few teams with the ability to truly score with Kansas City. They can keep up in a shootout, or they can scrap through a messier game. A lot depends on what they're going to get from their 41 year old quarterback, but if Brees is still Brees, this is the most complete team in football.

2020 NFL Preview Part One

We’re almost there. Two more days to go before the NFL regular season kicks off. In a year without the preseason, we haven’t seen any professional football played since the Super Bowl. We don’t know for sure how well the NFL’s COVID protocols will work, how teams will be impacted by players who opted out, or even if we’ll get 16 games from every team. It feels like we know even less this year than normal, and making any predictions is even more of an exercise in futility than in other years.

But screw it, I’m going to do it anyway.

Obviously COVID is a big variable that can’t be accounted for. Maybe 80% of the league’s starters will go down, and the Detroit Lions will miraculously emerge as the lone unaffected team and ride this to a Super Bowl. But it’s not worth factoring these random circumstances into the predictions. So I’m just going to pretend that everyone will stay healthy, and that the season will work out in an orderly fashion.

If you want to read more about any of these teams, click on one of my division previews below.

AFC South

AFC West
AFC East
AFC North
NFC South
NFC West
NFC East
NFC North

 

AFC

AFC South

Houston Texans: 11-5
Tennessee Titans: 9-7 
Indianapolis Colts: 7-9
Jacksonville Jaguars: 2-14

The Texans will win this division again, because winning the AFC South is the tutorial level of the NFL. Tennessee went on an impressive run a year ago, but that required career-best performances from both Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill, which will not recur. They’re still probably one of the favorites to grab a Wild Card, bolstered by some good additions to their defense. But Deshaun Watson puts the Texans ahead of everyone else in this division, despite Bill O’Brien calling the shots.

Jacksonville is going to be very bad. They seem to understand this, as they’ve spent the past couple weeks trading away what few players on their roster might be considered competent. Their defense has been torn down to the barest of bones after being the best in the league just three seasons ago. Their offense is led by a quarterback who profiles as a long-term backup at best. The next step is to lose their games, then tear down their disastrous front office and coaching staff, and start from scratch in 2021.

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs: 14-2
Las Vegas Raiders: 8-8
Denver Broncos: 8-8
Los Angeles Chargers: 6-10

The top spot in this division is not up for debate. The Chiefs are not competing with the AFC West, they’re competing with the other top teams in the AFC for the first round bye (remember, if things finish the way they did a year ago, the second-seeded Chiefs would have a first round playoff game). They can’t afford to have the midseason stumble they did in 2019. This stumble was largely due to health issues for Patrick Mahomes, and I think they’ll coast to the best record in the league this year.

The rest of the division will be scrambling for a wild card spot. The Chargers don’t have much of a shot, unless they get off to an early rhythm with Tyrod Taylor and can ride their defense. Ultimately I think it will come down to a tiebreaker, and the Raiders will slide into the AFC’s seventh seed. I think the Broncos have more upside if Drew Lock lives up to their expectations, but I trust Derek Carr more over the course of the season.

AFC East

New England Patriots: 9-7
Buffalo Bills: 8-8
Miami Dolphins: 6-10
New York Jets: 4-12

No one is really sure what we’re going to see from the Patriots this year. I think slightly-above-average is the most likely outcome. Cam Newton probably won’t be at the peak of his powers, but he’ll be effective enough to give this offense some life. And the defense is still enough to keep them competitive in most games. Over a long season, I would still bet on Bill Belichick giving them the edge over the other teams in this division. 

The Dolphins are still a year away, but they’ll make progress this year, especially once they get Tua Tagovailoa onto the field. The Jets are farther away than that. I still don’t know what to make of Sam Darnold, and they aren’t making it easy to figure that out as they continue to give him nothing to work with. The only team with a real chance of challenging the Patriots is Buffalo. They made the playoffs a year ago, and they’ll be better this year. But luck will break against them more in 2020, and they’ll end up just outside of the postseason.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens: 12-4
Pittsburgh Steelers: 9-7
Cincinnati Bengals: 6-10
Cleveland Browns: 6-10

Is this the year that Cleveland finally breaks through? It was supposed to be last year, but it wasn’t, and I don’t think 2020 is going to be much different. Their defense is still very young, and Baker Mayfield needs to show me some signs of being able to trust his offense to run its normal course. With another first-year coach, I think they’ll get off to a rough start before pulling together some late wins too late to challenge for a playoff spot. The other team in Ohio will have a similar season, but they will feel a lot better about it as their young quarterback grows towards 2021.

But the division race is between Baltimore and Pittsburgh, not that I think it will be much of a race. Both teams have excellent defenses, but Pittsburgh’s relied more on turnovers a year ago, which I think will slide back in 2020. The Steelers will also have some early season offensive struggles as Ben Roethlisberger returns from injury and adjusts to a very young group of receivers, which I think will dig them a hole too deep to get out of.

 

NFC

NFC South 
New Orleans Saints: 13-3
Atlanta Falcons: 9-7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9-7
Carolina Panthers: 5-11

New Orleans had the bad luck of missing out on a first round bye a year ago, and it’s going to be even harder in 2020. Fortunately, I think 13 wins will be enough to get them there this season. The NFC South won’t offer much in the way of challenges, and the other top teams in the NFC from a year ago will stumble. The Saints should coast to a division title and set themselves up perfectly for yet more playoff heartbreak. (Mostly joking here. Maybe.) 

The Buccaneers are the fascinating team in this division, for obvious reasons. I don’t think Tom Brady is an elite quarterback anymore, but if he can find the level he played at last year, there’s enough talent on this team for them to make a run at the postseason. I think ultimately they will fall short in a tiebreaker for the last spot with the Falcons, who should bounce back after a 2019 season that was derailed by some early stumbles.

NFC West

Seattle Seahawks: 11-5
San Francisco 49ers: 10-6
Arizona Cardinals: 8-8
Los Angeles Rams: 8-8

This is the most wide open division in football, as evidenced by all four teams being separated by only three wins in my prediction. The Seahawks have the best quarterback, and that should give them what they need to pull away from the others in the division. The Cardinals and the Rams will have a shot at the playoffs but will ultimately fall short, as two teams headed in very different directions. Kyler Murray won’t have the MVP-caliber second year performance that we’ve seen from players over the past two years, but he’ll do enough to establish himself as the clear future for this Cardinals team. 

The defending NFC champion 49ers are the most interesting team here. I always expect a team to regress after they make a leap like San Francisco did a year ago, especially when they don’t have a star at quarterback. They could stumble all the way out of the playoffs, but the strengths on their defensive line and their offensive play-calling aren’t just going to go away. They’ll be in the hunt for the division, and even if they don’t pull it out, I’d be surprised if this division didn’t end up producing at least two playoff teams.

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys: 12-4
Philadelphia Eagles: 10-6
New York Giants: 5-11
Washington Football Team: 3-13

The Cowboys are positioned to take a jump into the elite of the NFC. They have a star quarterback and a deep receiving corps. Their offense can be versatile with Ezekiel Elliott in the backfield. They have a defense that took a step back a year ago due to injuries but should bounce back to be an above average unit in 2020. Mike McCarthy isn’t the most inspiring head coach choice, but he has a lot of experience that should help a loaded roster take the next step and make a run towards the playoffs.   

The Eagles have the potential to challenge them for the division, but I think they fall short in a number of categories. I think the difference between Dak Prescott and Carson Wentz is bigger than most people realize, and the weapons on the perimeter for this offense aren’t there either. Fortunately, the bottom of the division will help them pick up a few easy wins and get into the playoffs as a wild card team. Washington and New York are in similar situations trying out second-year quarterbacks, and while I like Haskins better than Jones, the Giants are much farther along in building out the rest of their roster.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers: 10-6
Minnesota Vikings: 8-8
Chicago Bears: 6-10
Detroit Lions: 4-12

Both Green Bay and Minnesota will regress after making the playoffs a year ago. I don’t think this division will produce a wild card representative this year, and I think Green Bay will ultimately win the division thanks to head-to-head victories over the Vikings. Minnesota’s window is pretty much shut, and Green Bay’s likely is too, and whoever wins this division will probably face a first round exit when the playoffs come around. 

In theory the Bears could challenge for the division again, but the uncertainty at the quarterback position will keep them from competing for any playoff spot. They’ll be closer than the Lions however, who are a year away from a total teardown. I don’t expect Matt Patricia to last the entire regular season, and I’m not sure what the future holds for Matthew Stafford, even if he continues to play at the high level he did before his injury in 2019.