2017 Mock Draft: What Will Happen

Yesterday I posted the first of my two mock drafts, going over what would happen if I was in charge of every selection. I personally find that to be more fun, but there’s some value in trying to guess what will actually happen. Once again, I will only be using the draft order as it is right now. I’m not going to predict any trades (though I might casually mention some that could make sense).

This mock draft is a fair mix of rumors I’ve seen from other writers, logic based on team needs and histories, and more than a little bit of bullshit. I actually did pretty well last year, nailing seven picks exactly and linking Jack Conklin to Tennessee (they ended up trading up to get him, so I wasn’t technically correct in having them select him at number 15). I don’t expect the same results this year. This draft seems especially wide open, and it wouldn’t be a shock if I only got three or four of these correct.

Once again, if you’re curious about any of the players on this list, take a look at my prospect breakdowns:

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends
Cornerbacks
Linebackers and Defensive Tackles
Offensive Linemen
Running Backs
Safeties
Edge Defenders
Quarterbacks

1.     Cleveland Browns – Myles Garrett, DE/OLB, Texas A&M

There’s been a lot of buzz lately about the Browns considering Mitch Trubisky with this pick. If you saw my mock draft yesterday, then you saw that I think this would actually be a reasonable idea. But in the end I think they’ll go with what everyone has been presuming for months. Garrett is universally agreed to be the best prospect in the draft, and the Browns aren’t going to pass this up.

2.     San Francisco 49ers – Jamal Adams, S, LSU

There are so many ways this pick could go. The best bets are on Adams, Malik Hooker, Marshon Lattimore, or Solomon Thomas. They could also go for Mitch Trubisky or Leonard Fournette, or they could trade down with someone desperate for a quarterback. This is a crapshoot, so I’ll go with the best guess I have. 49ers GM John Lynch made his playing career as a hard hitting safety, so maybe he’ll fall in love with a hard hitting safety and grab Adams out of LSU.

3.     Chicago Bears – Marshon Lattimore, CB, Ohio State

I’ve heard some talk of the Bears being linked to Trubisky, but that could just be San Francisco trying to drum up trade interest. It wouldn’t stun me if it happened, but I think the Bears are more likely to go defensive. Lattimore has some injury concerns that could drop him, but I think his talent and athleticism will be too much for a team like Chicago to pass up.

4.     Jacksonville Jaguars – Malik Hooker, S, Ohio State

A lot of people are connecting this pick to Leonard Fournette. I don’t see it. Jacksonville could use a running back, but it isn’t a desperate hole like it was a year ago for Dallas, and I would hope they are aware of how much Fournette would struggle behind their mediocre offensive line. Instead they’ll shore up the back end of their defense with an athletic centerfielder who will protect them over the top to let their other young pieces play aggressively underneath.

5.     Tennessee Titans – Solomon Thomas, DE, Stanford

This isn’t a major need in Tennessee, but they’ll be hard pressed to pass up Thomas if he falls to them. Many believe he is the second best player in the class, and his athletic profile is right up there with Garrett’s. I have my doubts about him, but I still think he ends up going in the top five, possibly as high as number two.

6.     New York Jets – Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU

The Jets are the clearest example of a team that drafts entirely based on best player available. They will completely ignore the current construction of their roster, even if it means drafting yet another interior defensive lineman. I would laugh pretty hard if they grabbed Jonathan Allen here, but I wouldn’t be surprised. Really, I think they’ll fall in love with Fournette and add to their offense for once. I also think this is the best spot for a team looking to trade up for a quarterback, likely Cleveland or Buffalo.

7.     Los Angeles Chargers – Jonathan Allen, DT/DE, Alabama

Allen was once considered one of the premier prospects in the draft, before poor testing and concerns about the health of his shoulder wore off some of the shine. He’s still a really good player, and I don’t see him falling out of the top ten. The Chargers had tremendous success addressing their defensive line a year ago, and they can make it even better by adding Allen beside Joey Bosa.

8.     Carolina Panthers – Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford

This pick doesn’t make a lot of sense to me, but there is so much smoke linking McCaffrey to the Panthers that I have to believe there’s something there. He certainly would be an intriguing fit in a spread offense beside Cam Newton, an upgrade over the slower, more plodding backs they’ve had the past few years. This is too high for him to go, and if the Panthers are serious they could probably trade back with someone looking for a quarterback.

9.     Cincinnati Bengals – Mike Williams, WR, Clemson

Cincinnati is another team that typically ignores need, though this year they’re fortunate to need pretty much everything. I think they’ll try to make life easier for Andy Dalton by giving him another big receiver to throw to on the outside. Williams is not close to AJ Green’s level, but he has a similar catch radius, and he’s someone Dalton can trust to throw it up to when the offensive line collapses in front of him.

10.  Buffalo Bills – Mitch Trubisky, QB, North Carolina

This is where my refusal to project trades really comes back to bite me. There is no way that Trubisky is making it to number ten. I don’t think he’ll go to any of the teams above this, but someone will trade up for him (likely Cleveland, though the Bills are in that conversation as well). But if somehow he is available, Buffalo will not hesitate to select him. They’re keeping Tyrod Taylor around for now, but he clearly isn’t part of their long term plans, and Trubisky won’t need long to become their quarterback of the future.

11.  New Orleans Saints – Marlon Humphry, CB, Alabama

The Saints made a hard push towards grabbing Malcolm Butler from the Patriots, and now that it looks like that’s dead they’ll look for a starting cornerback in the draft. I had this pick as Gareon Conley until the off the field questions emerged yesterday, which I think will push him out of the first round. Humphry jumps up because of this, bringing a physical presence to the outside for a team that needs help just about everywhere.

12.  Cleveland Browns – Pat Mahomes, QB, Texas Tech

I also think Mahomes will end up going in the top ten (likely to Buffalo when Cleveland jumps ahead to get Trubisky). But I’ll put him here for now. The Browns need a quarterback, and despite their insistence on a long term rebuilding plan, pressure from their notoriously unstable ownership will push them to making this mistake.

13.  Arizona Cardinals – OJ Howard, TE, Alabama

Arizona has been searching for a tight end for years, and it just so happens that one of the best tight end prospects of the decade falls into their lap. Howard didn’t put up big numbers at Alabama, but he very well could have, if he hadn’t been kept in as a blocker on most plays. He dominated the combine, and he has the potential to be one of the best and most well rounded players in the NFL in a couple years.

14.  Philadelphia Eagles – Corey Davis, WR, Western Michigan

Carson Wentz was bad last year, but he wasn’t helped by the receivers around him. Davis will be able to immediately move into the starting role, bouncing Jordan Matthews into the slot where he’s more comfortable. He’s not a gamebreaker, but he’s reliable, which is a good match for Wentz’s underwhelming deep ball and lack of aggression.

15.  Indianapolis Colts – Derek Barnett, DE/OLB, Tennessee

Indianapolis needs to completely overhaul their defense, and even though Barnett isn’t the star they need, he’s at least a quality role player to start building around. Barnett’s productivity in college has made him a favorite of Garrett haters, and despite some major questions I think his numbers will make him a lock for the top twenty.

16.  Baltimore Ravens – David Njoku, TE, Miami

Baltimore has floundered over and over again in their attempts to bring a dynamic weapon to their offense, but they may have a shot to do it this year. Njoku isn’t as polished as Howard, but when he gets the ball in his hands he is truly special. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a tight end run after the catch like he does, and the big plays he generates will make up for some lapses as he grows into an NFL system.

17.  Washington Redskins – Haason Reddick, LB, Temple

Reddick is a name that keeps getting hotter as the draft approaches, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him go earlier than this, potentially even in the top ten. I’ve seen a couple of sources claim that Washington absolutely loves him and that they’d be willing to jump up a couple of spots if they don’t think he’ll fall. He’ll need some work, but his athletic ability gives him the potential to be a truly dynamic defender.

18.  Tennessee Titans – Kevin King, CB, Washington

Tennessee let go long time starting cornerback Jason McCourtey, leaving them in position to grab a young and physical replacement. I haven’t had a chance to study King in depth yet, but the injury to Sidney Jones and the legal troubles of Conley leave this draft thinner at cornerback than it initially appeared. From what I’ve seen I’m not a fan of King, but he brings good tools and a physical edge that can develop down the road.

19.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State

Every indication is that Tampa Bay is ready to move on from Doug Martin, and it sounds like they love Cook as their running back of the future. Sticking in Florida, he’ll be reunited with Jameis Winston on an offense that is looking more and more loaded with each passing move. They can already attack down the field with Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson, and if Cook gives them a real running threat they can be one of the best offenses in the league.

20.  Denver Broncos – Garrett Bolles, OT, Utah

As in my first mock draft, I’m giving Denver a tackle. Bolles seems to have settled in most people’s minds as the best offensive lineman in the draft. He has the size and athleticism you look for from an offensive tackle, and despite some concerns about his age I think he’ll end up being a first round selection. He has some work to do before he’s ready to start, but I think he could eventually become a capable, if unspectacular, starter.

21.  Detroit Lions – Obi Melifonwu, S, Connecticut

Melifonwu’s combine performance may be enough to get him higher than this, and I think he deserves it. He is fantastic in coverage, and his athleticism suggests that he is only going to get better as he starts working with NFL coaches. Detroit’s defense was abysmal last year, and shoring it up with a playmaker on the back end is a good first step towards turning things around.

22.  Miami Dolphins – Zach Cunningham, LB, Vanderbilt

Behind Ndamukong Suh, Miami has basically nothing. They paid big money to bring Lawrence Timmons as a free agent, but he isn’t a solution past this year. Enter Cunningham, a rangy and athletic linebacker with a few rough edges but excellent potential. He may not be able to see the field right away, but if given a year or two to polish his game up he can be an elite defender against both the run and the pass.

23.  New York Giants – Forrest Lamp, OT/OG, Western Kentucky

The biggest problem in New York is Eli Manning, but since they can’t do anything about him they’ll have to settle for making his life a little easier. New York’s offensive line was utter trash last year, and even though two years is fairly quick, it’s not unreasonable to say that Erick Flowers was a bust. Lamp might not be able to take his spot at left tackle, but he’ll help shore things up on the inside.

24.  Oakland Raiders – Jarrad Davis, LB, Florida

Oakland needs help pretty much everywhere on their defense, and Davis is a prospect I’ve heard they like. He has some work to do as an all around player, but his skills in pass defense give him a clear role in the NFL.

25.  Houston Texans – Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson

I have a sneaking suspicion that Watson is going to go higher than this. He’ll certainly go in the first round, even though he shouldn’t. There is a lot of bad stuff on the field that has to be overlooked, but some team is going to fall in love with all the intangible bullshit that people spew about mediocre quarterbacks. Even if it isn’t Watson, I would be shocked not to see Houston go with a quarterback in the first round. They whiffed going after Tony Romo, and there’s no way they’re entering next year with Tom Savage as their starting quarterback.

26.  Seattle Seahawks - Ryan Ramczyk, OT, Wisconsin

Seattle used their first round pick on an offensive lineman last year, and the line is still terrible. Part of that is the fact that the player they selected is bad, but it’s also an issue of overall depth. They need an improvement at every position, and they can’t afford to pass up a quality tackle prospect like Ramczyk.

27.  Kansas City Chiefs – DeShone Kizer, QB, Notre Dame

Kizer is not ready to get on the field right away, and Kansas City is one of the few destinations where he won’t be forced to. Alex Smith is a bad quarterback, but he’s bad in the right sort of ways that will keep him from being benched. Kizer certainly has the potential to be a top notch quarterback if he gets things patched up in a couple years, and I can think of no better situation for him than working with Andy Reid.

28.  Dallas Cowboys – Reuben Foster, LB, Alabama

Once considered by some to be the number two prospect in the draft, various off the field concerns have sent Foster sliding down the board. There’s some talk now that he could end up in the second round, but I don’t see Dallas passing up this opportunity. Sean Lee is great but can’t stay healthy. Jaylon Smith is talented, but anytime a player being able to “lift his toes” makes headlines, that isn’t a position that can be counted on. Foster raises some concerns, but the talent is undeniable.

29.  Green Bay Packers – Charles Harris, DE/OLB, Missouri

Harris’s dismal showing at the combine will drop him lower than he deserves to go, and the Packers will pounce all over a player who is a perfect fit in their system. He may struggle some moving off the ball as a linebacker, but he brings the pass rushing threat they haven’t consistently had since the early days of Clay Matthews.

30.  Pittsburgh Steelers – Takk McKinley, DE/OLB, UCLA

Pittsburgh has spent three first round picks on linebackers in the past four years, and they will probably go the same direction again tomorrow night. Even with the emergence of Bud Dupree late last year they still struggled to generate pressure without blitzing. McKinley has some pretty obvious flaws, but his length, burst, and athleticism are enough to get him into the first round.

31.  Atlanta Falcons – Tre’Davious White, CB, LSU

Desmond Trufant will be coming back, but Atlanta still desperately needs help defending the pass. They have some good pieces up the middle of their defense, but they are lacking on the edge, and White could be a solution. I’m not very high on him, but he brings good versatility to play both on the outside and in the slot, which should make his transition easier for a team that wants to keep last year’s momentum rolling.

32.  New Orleans Saints – John Ross, WR, Washington

New Orleans got this pick by giving up a speedy deep threat, and they’ll use it to replace him with an even faster player. The Saints don’t necessarily need a wide receiver, but Ross offers value that is difficult to pass up. Injury concerns and overall versatility will knock him down, but a 4.22 forty is still a 4.22 forty. He’s a first round pick, and another weapon to try to get Drew Brees over the hump.