2017 NFL Draft Preview: Quarterbacks

I’ve spent the past four weeks going through the top prospects available in this year’s draft. I’ve broken down nearly sixty players so far, names we will become increasingly familiar with over the coming years. Some will be stars, others will wash out of the league, while most will settle into steady and unremarkable NFL careers.

But of course, none of them really matter. The NFL is a quarterback driven league, and this draft will ultimately be defined by the stars it produces under center. And despite what you may have heard, there is talent to be found here this year. As I look at it, there are three clear tiers of quarterbacks available this year. The first tier is occupied by elite prospects, players who are sure to become at the very least reliable starters. The next tier are the risks, the quarterbacks who could emerge or fall to pieces at the next level. And finally there are the backups, late round options with no real upside of ever developing into a long term solution in the NFL.

Once again I would like to thank Draft Breakdown for providing the tape I use to study these prospects, as well as Mockdraftable for compiling and presenting in a unique way all the relevant combine numbers. Take a look at both those sites if you want to learn more about the players in this year’s draft.

Mitch Trubisky, North Carolina

Did you see above where I mentioned there was a top tier of elite quarterback prospects? Well, this is it. Trubisky is the best quarterback in the class, and it isn’t particularly close. Some of this gap is due to the weaknesses of the players below him, but a lot if it comes down to him being a really good quarterback.

Trubisky has all the tools you look for in a quarterback. His arm can get the ball to any spot on the field, and it usually ends up exactly where he wants to put it. He isn’t a runner, but he’s athletic enough to make plays in the backfield, and he has good improvisational skills to find and take advantage of open receivers down the field. But he’s really at the best in the pocket, where his excellent footwork allows him to slide away from pressure while keeping himself in position to throw down the field. He lets routes develop, and he releases the ball exactly when he needs to, hitting his receivers in stride in the widest possible windows. He has the arm strength to fit it through the same tight windows that other prospects regularly hit, but he often doesn’t need it, able to anticipate and release the ball a fraction of a second earlier to let his receiver come open.

Trubisky is a bit more raw than you’d like to see from a top quarterback prospect, but he isn’t exactly working with nothing. He’ll become a little flustered under pressure and either run from a clean pocket or chuck the ball blindly down the field. A lot of this was a natural result of playing behind a truly wretched offensive line, and for every bad play he made under pressure there were a couple more where he excelled. But he’ll need some work to smooth this out, and to polish up occasional issues with his accuracy and his deep ball.

Though he’s ready to start right away, it will probably be a couple years before you can build an offense around Trubisky. But I feel confident that he will reach that point, and if everything breaks right he could find himself among the very best at the position. That last part might be a reach—he still has a lot of work to do reading defenses and making decisions, even as advanced as he is. But the upside is there, and the most likely outcome is a comfortable top ten starter. That makes him a definite top five pick, and should at least raise the question of him going number one.

DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame

I have Kizer ranked at the top of the second tier of quarterbacks, but I don’t feel good about it. He poses a very difficult question about evaluating NFL prospects. How do you deal with a player whose overall performance is stellar, but who suffers from one glaring flaw? What do you do with a quarterback who reads the entire field, works in the pocket, identifies the open receiver, waits until the opportune moment to throw the ball, and then misses the easy target?

In almost every part of the game Kizer is ahead of the other two quarterbacks in the second tier, and he’s better than Trubisky in quite a bit as well. He is the smoothest, most natural operator out of the pocket in this draft. He works himself through pressure without any missteps, always keeping himself balanced and ready to throw. His eyes remain downfield, and he moves through multiple progressions on almost every play. He will occasionally force the ball into coverage, but he usually finds an open receiver. And even though he’s a fantastic athlete, he picks his spots as a runner well, only taking off when there’s something there and nothing better down the field.

The problem with Kizer is that once the ball leaves his hand, you have absolutely no idea where it is going to end up. His accuracy is the most glaring flaw of any of the quarterbacks I studied. He misses passes deep, over the middle, and to the sidelines. He’ll even whiff on quick screens. No throw is safe, and this is a problem that isn’t just going to go away.

I have Kizer ranked second because I think it is easier to fix one major flaw than a dozen small ones. But his inaccuracy is the most severe of any of these players’ shortcomings, and it is in the trait that is both most vital and most difficult to repair. Quarterbacks can get smarter, they can get better under pressure, and they can even develop stronger arms. But short of a major mechanical change—and I see nothing glaring wrong with Kizer’s mechanics—there isn’t much they can do if they can’t complete a simple pass to an open receiver. If Kizer can find a way to fix this, he’ll probably turn out even better than Trubisky. But that’s not a gamble I’d be willing to make early in the draft.

Pat Mahomes, Texas Tech

Mahomes is a project, but he might be the most intriguing prospect in the draft. We often talk about quarterback arm strength, and I’m a bigger proponent than most of its value. A strong arm allows a quarterback to make throws that lesser players simply can’t and gives him more margin for error on everyday passes. And so while other people scoff, I’ll happily take the guy with the cannon. And Mahomes certainly has a cannon. In fact, I don’t think it’s hyperbole at all to say that he has the best arm I have ever seen on a football field.

Mahomes can fire the ball a mile, and it certainly looks beautiful when he does so. He is the best deep ball thrower of the top four quarterbacks, and he has the mentality to go with it. But his arm isn’t just useful stretching the field. He also has short area arm strength, the ability to fire the ball with velocity to squeeze it through tight windows. Everything looks easy to him, and the ball just comes out of his hands different than it does for other quarterbacks. His accuracy could use some work, but it’s not going to sink him, and at his best he is capable of incredible pinpoint throws that combine velocity, accuracy, and anticipation.

The questions about Mahomes aren’t about what he can do. They’re about how he does it. He is as raw as any quarterback coming out of college since Johnny Manziel, and even that may be giving him too much credit. He is a master at scrambling behind the line and finding receivers while on the run, but he relies on this far too often, breaking from a clean pocket and running himself into trouble. He forces balls into coverage, and his offensive scheme is about as far from an NFL system as you can get. And his mechanics fall to pieces if he holds the ball for more than two seconds, a problem that is only partially erased by his ability to make spectacular throws from bad platforms. He is absolutely not ready to play in the NFL on day one, and I would be scared to put him anywhere near the field at any point during his rookie season.

The tricky part about Mahomes is that we don’t know how much of these shortcomings are due to inherent flaws versus how many are just a product of his system. He was a gunslinger who made ridiculous plays over and over at Texas Tech, because that’s what Texas Tech asks its quarterbacks to be. And he excelled in that role in a way that no other quarterback has. On the rare occasion he was asked to make complicated decisions, he showed surprising aptitude for it. There is something here, and even though it may take the best coaching staff in the world to reach it, the upside is almost immeasurable.

Deshaun Watson, Clemson

If I had to pick a quarterback to play a game tomorrow, it would be a tight contest between Trubisky and Watson. But we’re not picking a quarterback for tomorrow. We’re picking a quarterback for the next ten years. And as a long term prospect, I see virtually no upside in Watson. He was a very effective and very successful college quarterback, but I don’t see the tools needed to excel in the NFL.

Watson is at his best when he figures out where he’s throwing the ball before he gets the snap. He shows good recognition of the presnap looks that defenses give him, and when the field is spread in front of him he usually picks the receiver who is going to give him the best opportunity at a completion. The ball comes out quick, and it is usually pretty accurate on slants (though it does nosedive into the ground sometimes to eliminate potential yards after the catch). At times his recognition of matchups can extend farther down the field, and he has moments of exquisite touch on jump balls to a receiver’s back shoulder on the sideline.

Watson excels in his comfort zone, and he is a below average quarterback outside of it. Even the throws to the sideline are a bit of a mirage, as for every great pass he makes there are three others where his ball placement is mediocre. He can’t complete a deep ball to save his life, and he has a habit of throwing behind his receivers over the middle of the field which, when combined with his struggles to pick up underneath coverage, leads to a lot of interceptions.

The best case scenario for Watson is as a middle of the pack low-upside-low-risk quarterback. But low-risk seems generous for a quarterback who threw thirty interceptions over his past thirty games. I think he will likely end up as a starter, and I think he’ll coast somewhere around the 20^th best quarterback in the league for the next ten years. But I don’t see much value in that, and I’m not sure I would even bother drafting him if I got a chance in the second round.

Brad Kaaya, Miami

Kaaya is the best of the quarterbacks in the third tier, and at times he looks impressive enough that I can almost justify him moving up to the second. When everything is clicking, he is a smooth and effective operator with an inherent understanding of the evolution of his play and the defense’s response to it. He makes sharp reads before the snap, and he gets the ball out almost always exactly when it needs to be. He can hit tight windows between defenders, helped by above average (though not elite) arm strength.

These moments show up throughout every game he plays, but they aren’t enough to distract from the overall struggles he faces. When things are going right, Kaaya can be an effective and efficient quarterback. But he is incapable of making any plays when his initial read is taken away from him. He doesn’t move through his progressions well after the snap, and the best possible outcome is when he can find a checkdown option and hope for yards after the catch. More often than not he will end up stuck as the pocket collapses around him and either swallow the ball or chuck it blindly into coverage. He is completely immobile, not even capable of small shifts to give himself space in the pocket.

Add to this a general lack of accuracy, and it’s clear that Kaaya doesn’t have what it takes to make it as a starter in the NFL. He misses easy throws that he needs to make, and he can’t complete a deep ball to save his life. He has no control over the ball when he tries to float it with touch, and sharp throws into tight windows aren’t enough to save him. I wouldn’t hate him coming off the bench for a game or two after he has a couple years to digest an NFL system, but giving him anything more than that will leave your team in serious trouble.

Nathan Peterman, Pittsburgh

Physical tools are the biggest issues holding Peterman back. There are certain areas of the field that he just can’t hit, and that limits everything his offense can do with him. He doesn’t threaten teams deep, his balls fade when he tries to throw to the sideline, and defenders have more time to react when he tries to throw something quick like a slant or a receiver screen.

These failings are unfortunate, because in the areas of the field Peterman is able to hit he is extremely successful. He is above average with his accuracy and ball placement, and even with his limited velocity he has the anticipation to hit tight windows across the middle. He doesn’t go through complicated reads very often, but he isn’t out of place when he is asked to do so. He shows advanced understanding of how to move defenders with his eyes, and he makes a lot of creative improvisational plays, finding receivers on the run and throwing accurately from unusual platforms.

Peterman gets more credit than he deserves for playing in a “pro-style system”. He started more plays under center than every other quarterback I watched combined, but that doesn’t mean he was running the sort of plays and making the sort of reads he’ll have to in the NFL. He benefited from a lot of receivers left wide open by creative play design, and even though he found those receivers consistently, it will become a lot tougher on the next level. And when a play wasn’t there, he was too quick to tuck the ball and run. He’s a decent athlete, but he isn’t a consistent rushing threat.

There is some hope that Peterman can develop into something more than he is right now. Arm strength can be improved in the NFL (see Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees for examples of players whose physical tools to a leap forward after they were drafted), but drafting Peterman is a dual gamble. You’re gambling that his tools can be improved, and you’re gambling that he can learn how to run an NFL offense. I have a hard time seeing both these things coming to fruition, and I’m not sure his slim upside is worth the development cost.

Joshua Dobbs, Tennessee

Before a strong senior season the general consensus on Dobbs was that he was likely to change positions in the NFL. He’s now projected by most as a quarterback, but he remains an excellent athlete who is at his best with the ball tucked beneath his arm. His straight line speed is good but not game breaking, and what really makes him dangerous is his elusiveness. He makes sharp cuts at full speed in the open field, and he is a nightmare to try to track down in the backfield. He keeps plays alive far longer than they should be, and he will always present a problem outside the framework of the offense.

As a passer he has outstanding arm strength, and that’s about it. He can get the ball to any part of the field, but throwing to anything more than a general area is a bit of a challenge. His passes regularly sail over his receivers’ heads, and even when he hits his target it usually is a much more difficult catch than it has to be. He does a good job identifying open receivers and rarely forces the ball into serious trouble, but he’s still vulnerable to turnovers by sheer inaccuracy of missing open windows and hitting a defender instead.

I’m not sure what role Dobbs will have in the NFL. I see no real upside as a developmental prospect, and I’m not sure what value he has as a backup either. His skill as a ball carrier could make him a challenge if he ever comes on in relief, but teams that gameplan for him should have no trouble keeping him contained and forcing him to beat them with his arm. I wouldn’t see any reason to draft Dobbs at all, unless you really are interested in switching him to wide receiver.

Davis Webb, California

Webb throws an absolutely gorgeous ball when he goes deep down the sidelines, and he can’t do anything else you would ask for from a quarterback. It is staggering how bad he is. I’ve seen quarterbacks who can’t read defenses, and I’ve seen quarterbacks with the accuracy of a Stormtrooper, but I’ve never seen anyone combine the two quite in the same way Webb does.

It’s common among college quarterbacks to thrive making only single reads prior to the snap, getting the ball out quickly and letting receivers do all the work. Most of the quarterbacks above fit this description, and the only way that Webb differs is that he frequently makes the wrong read. He decides who he’s throwing to before the snap, and he throws it no matter what, even if a defender is standing right in the path of the ball. He threw only twelve interceptions last year, but in the three games I watched he had to have nearly that many dropped by defenders who were too shocked that the ball came their way to even catch it.

Decision making can be improved in the NFL, but it’s hard to imagine coaches patching that up while also fixing the rampant inaccuracy that infects every non-deep ball Webb tries to throw. He misses in every possible way, sailing high, dying low, throwing behind, leading too far. Even the passes that are completed require acrobatic leaps and twists from his wide receivers to come down with them.

Webb should not be drafted, and I’m not even sure if he deserves a tryout as a free agent. But there’s talk that some teams might jump on him as a first round pick, which I can only hope will happen, as it will make it a lot easier for me to select my worst pick of the first round this year. I see next to nothing salvageable from Webb, but he certainly does throw a pretty deep ball.