Well
that first round was…something. Everyone knew it was going to be wild, but it
was even crazier than I had expected. After getting seven picks right with my
mock draft last year, I only got three right today (four if you count Deshaun
Watson going to Houston, though there’s a pretty big difference between going
12th and going 25th).
We
saw a rush of trades in the top ten and at the very end, along with very little
action in the middle. In a draft that everyone said was about the defense,
eight of the first twelve players were on the offensive side. And these were
all skill position players, as the first offensive linemen didn’t go off the
board until nineteen other players had been selected.
It
was wild, and it was fun. I’ll have a lot more to say to recap the first round
and look forward to the second tomorrow, but for now here are my thoughts on
the picks that were made tonight.
1.
Cleveland
Browns – Myles Garrett, DE/OLB, Texas A&M
After
a tense final few days, we ended up exactly where we thought we would. Garrett
is one of those athletes that comes around only a few times in each generation,
and he happens to be a pretty damn good player on top of that. He will be a
dominant defender for years to come, and if he can harness his potential he can
be the very best in the league. All that is true, and it doesn’t stop this from
being a bad move. But I’ll have more to say on this tomorrow.
2.
Chicago
Bears – Mitch Trubisky, QB, North Carolina
The
first pick went about how everyone expected. The second, not so much. There was
a lot of talk about teams moving up to this second overall pick, but Chicago
wasn’t a team I heard mentioned. They gave up a lot, but they got the best
quarterback in the draft, so it’s hard to say this is an entirely bad move. But
the Bears are one of the strangest possible destinations for Trubisky. I think
they would have been better sticking with Mike Glennon for another year or two
and continuing to build an offense that really doesn’t have much going for it.
3.
San
Francisco 49ers – Solomon Thomas, DE, Stanford
Thomas
was going to go higher than I felt he should have, but the 49ers seem like a
particularly poor fit. Thomas is a bit stuck between positions, and I don’t
know if he’ll be able to use his athleticism to truly dominate either on the
edge or in the middle. San Francisco spent their past two first round picks on
hybrid defensive tackle-defensive ends, and I’m not really sure if Thomas can
fit well on the line with Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner.
4.
Jacksonville
Jaguars – Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU
I
certainly hope I eventually have something positive to say about one of these
picks. Fournette is a lot of fun, but I’m not sure if he’s actually good. He
can be explosive when he gets his momentum worked up, but he needs a clear path
ahead of him for that to happen. And a clear path is not something he’s going
to find in Jacksonville. Teams are going to stack the box, punish their weak
offensive line, and do everything they can to contain him in the backfield
where he’s mostly harmless.
5.
Tennessee
Titans – Corey Davis, WR, Western Michigan
The
start of this draft was unexpected, but this was the first pick that made me
yell “Oh shit!” in my apartment. I had seen no projections with Davis going
this high, and even though he was my highest ranked receiver, I don’t think he
was worth this selection. Davis is a good route runner with good size and good
athleticism. But notice the repetition of the word “good” in that sentence.
Davis doesn’t really excel in any area, and there is nothing truly special
about him that would justify a top five pick. I like his fit with the
efficiency of Marcus Mariota, but there were much better players that Tennessee
left on the board.
6.
New
York Jets – Jamal Adams, S, LSU
This
is the first pick that’s really made sense. I’m not the biggest fan of Adams,
but he fits a definite need for the Jets. Their defense has quietly fallen to
pieces over the past few years, and Adams has the potential to be a star. He is
aggressive, he is fast, and he is physical. There are a lot of nuances about
playing in coverage and reading offenses that he still needs to learn, but
until he figures that out he still has value as a grenade tossed into the back
end of the defense.
7.
Los
Angeles Chargers – Mike Williams, WR, Clemson
Man
it’s nice that this draft is getting all the players I hate out of the way early.
Williams is big, and he can win a lot of jump balls, and he will be perfect
partnered with the precision and timing of Philip Rivers. But he’s a bad route
runner, he’s slow, and he’s going to struggle to get open against NFL coverage
his entire career. I don’t think there’s much upside here, and I think he tops
out as a decent number two receiver for a team that should be looking for the
star to build their team around after Rivers is gone.
8.
Carolina
Panthers – Christian McCaffrey, RB/WR, Stanford
I
threw in that wide receiver designation as a tribute to Thomas Davis, who
messed up announcing this pick. The truth is McCaffrey would be a pretty good
wide receiver, and his versatility will be a major asset to Carolina’s offense.
He’s a fantastic athlete who can fit in a variety of roles, and my only concern
is whether he can excel at any one of them. If he can develop as a more
consistent runner, he is the perfect player for the modern NFL. But I’m worried
he might never be more than a gadget.
9.
Cincinnati
Bengals – John Ross, WR, Washington
I
did not expect any receivers to go in the top ten. Instead we got three (and
possibly four depending on what you call McCaffrey). Of the three Ross isn’t
the surest thing, but he’s the only one with top ten upside. His speed is what
everyone talks about, but he’s more well rounded than people give him credit
for. He is a good route runner with the ability to become great, and he’s as
dangerous after the catch as he is before it.
10. Kansas City Chiefs – Pat Mahomes, QB,
Texas Tech
I
like Mahomes. This is too high for him, but I don’t hate it. Mostly I just find
this funny, because there is absolutely zero overlap between the skills of
Mahomes and Alex Smith. Smith is allergic to throws more than ten yards down
the field. Mahomes is at his best when he’s hurling the ball seventy yards on
the run. He has no idea how to play quarterback, but he has the best arm I’ve
ever seen. He has to do a lot of work if he’s going to have any chance of NFL
success, but I can’t imagine a coach in the NFL better to develop him than Andy
Reid. At the same time, the Chiefs just gave up two first round picks for a
quarterback who is less polished than Blake Bortles. If this doesn’t work, it
kills their franchise for five years. (Also this could break one of my favorite
streaks in sports: the Chiefs haven’t had a game won by a quarterback they
drafted since 1987).
11. New Orleans Saints – Marshon Lattimore,
CB, Ohio State
Finally
a pick I can absolutely get behind. There is no way that Lattimore should have
been available here. He is one of the best athletes in the draft, he dominated
when he was on the field in college, and he’ll be able to start right away in
the NFL. This is a dream come true pick for the Saints, and I have to imagine
they were giggling to themselves as they ran to the podium.
12. Houston Texans – Deshaun Watson, QB,
Clemson
The
Texans are quietly one of the worst run teams in the league. I don’t know if I
saw any position other than a quarterback projected to them in the first round,
so naturally when Kansas City jumped up to grab Mahomes they panicked and did
the same. Unlike the Chiefs however, they didn’t get someone with the upside to
be a star. Watson is a lot like the quarterback the Chiefs just decided to
replace, except that he turns the ball over like crazy. He’s Alex Smith without
the only thing that Smith does well, and the Texans just sold their future to
get him.
13. Arizona Cardinals – Haason Reddick, LB,
Temple
I
have questions about how Reddick’s instincts will develop as he translates to
an off the ball linebacker position, but his athletic upside makes him worth
this pick. Or it would, if there weren’t a bunch of better defensive prospects
sitting here for them to take. Malik Hooker, Derek Barnett, Jonathan Allen, Charles
Harris, and Reuben Foster are all available, and it’s hard to justify taking a
raw, positionless athlete when so many better options happened to fall.
14. Philadelphia Eagles – Derek Barnett,
DE/OLB, Tennessee
Philadelphia
really needs offensive talent to put around their young quarterback, but with
the run that happened earlier on offensive weapons there wasn’t really anyone
worth taking (unless they wanted to double up on tight ends with OJ Howard
beside Zach Ertz). And an edge rusher is one of the bigger holes on their
otherwise fantastic defense. Barnett is a weird player, and I’m not sure if his
productivity will translate to the NFL. But he’s worth the shot at this point
in the draft.
15. Indianapolis Colts – Malik Hooker, S,
Ohio State
Hooker
was projected by many to be a top five pick, possibly as high as second
overall. He’s good value, and he’s a perfect fit in Indianapolis. He instantly
makes life easier for everyone in front of him by covering a huge swath of
grass over the top. Indianapolis still needs help at pretty much every other
position on their defense (and most on their offense). But this is a good
start.
16. Baltimore Ravens – Marlon Humphry, CB,
Alabama
I
don’t know what odds you would have gotten on Humphry being the first Alabama
player taken, but I know I wouldn’t have bet on them. Humphry has some flashes
of upside, especially when he gets physical around the line. He can stack
receivers up off the snap, and he is more aggressive as a tackler than most
linebackers in this class. But if he gets beaten off the ball, he struggles to
keep up in coverage, and he is very vulnerable to being exposed over the top.
He might have been the best cornerback available (pending the issues around
Gereon Conley), but he’s not one of the top three options from his own team.
17. Washington Redskins – Jonathan Allen,
DT/DE, Alabama
I
don’t think anyone expected the Redskins to have a chance at Allen, and he’s
pretty much the perfect outcome for them. They don’t have many stars on their
team, but their roster is solid top to bottom. Interior defensive line is one
of the spots where they don’t have a clear answer, and they got the best one in
an otherwise weak draft class.
18. Tennesee Titans – Adoree Jackson, CB,
USC
Wow
is this a reach. The Titans need a cornerback, and I’m not surprised to see
them go that direction. But I kind of figured they would go after a cornerback
who can actually cover. Jackson is a phenomenal athlete and an even better
returner. He’ll contribute immediately on special teams. I just don’t think we
can say the same about him on defense. A couple years down the road he might be
able to develop into a starting cornerback, but it’s going to take a lot to
develop his athleticism.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – OJ Howard, TE,
Alabama
Another
pick I like. Howard is a premier athlete, a quality blocker, and an excellent
receiver who wasn’t used nearly often enough in college. Very often we see
tight ends drafted on pure athletic ability with the belief that they can turn
into effective starters. This isn’t the case with Howard. He can contribute
immediately in every facet of the game, and he is only going to get better as
he gets more experience. I think there’s a very good chance that in five years
Howard is universally regarded as the best tight end in the league.
20. Denver Broncos – Garrett Bolles, OT,
Utah
The
first offensive lineman comes off the board right where everyone expected.
Denver’s offensive line was awful last year, and it only got worse during the
offseason. Bolles isn’t my favorite line prospect, but I think he can become an
average starting tackle. His athleticism is remarkable for a tackle, and he’s
good leading in the running game. I just worry about how often he got
overpowered by players two or three years younger than him, and how much upside
he has to develop as a 25 year old rookie.
21. Detroit Lions – Jarrad Davis, LB,
Florida
Huh.
I like Davis, and even though this is probably a little high for him, in a
vacuum it isn’t ridiculous. He’s a good athlete who excels in coverage, and he
is well suited to play in the modern NFL. But it still seems strange to see him
go before Reuben Foster and Zach Cunningham. I don’t hate the pick, but there
were better options out there.
22. Miami Dolphins – Charles Harris, DE/OLB,
Missouri
Harris’s
combine is a red flag, and that dropped him lower than his tape shows. He was
the most complete pass rusher I saw this year, with the ability to both win
around the edge and break back to the inside. He doesn’t have much power, and
he struggles defending the point of attack against the run. But he fills a
major need in Miami, where Cameron Wake can’t defy time forever.
23. New York Giants – Evan Engram, TE, Ole
Miss
The
first player off the board that I didn’t study. I’ll try to watch some film
overnight and get back to you. But I have to say, I’m stunned to see the Giants
pass up on David Njoku.
24. Oakland Raiders – Gareon Conley, CB,
Ohio State
I
wondered who was going to do this. I didn’t think it would happen in the first
round. If Conley ends up getting charged based on the rape allegations, I don’t
know what the Raiders are going to do. If he went in the fourth round or later
he probably would have been cut. That can’t happen with a first round pick.
This is a huge gamble, but if it works out Oakland may have just gotten a top
ten prospect at a position of major need.
25. Cleveland Browns – Jabrill Peppers, S,
Michigan
The
bad news: Peppers doesn’t know how to play football and won’t be ready to be a
reliable starter for two or three years. Good news: he’s going to the Browns,
so it really doesn’t matter. This is actually kind of the best situation for
him, because he can be thrown on the field and get burned over and over and it
won’t matter because his team is going to lose anyway. He needs time on the
field to figure what he’s doing, and he needs to do it in an environment where
he can take some risks, make some mistakes, and learn how to utilize his rare
athletic ability.
26. Atlanta Falcons – Takk McKinley, DE/OLB,
UCLA
Atlanta
adds another good piece to their defense, and this really seems like the
perfect fit for McKinley. He isn’t going to be a dominant pass rusher, but
Atlanta already has one of those in Vic Beasley. McKinley will give them an
extra threat on the edge, and a solid player to hold up against the run. I’m
not sure if the trade was necessary though. There are a few teams they leaped
that have interest in an edge rusher, but the position is deep enough that it
wouldn’t have been a major dropoff if they missed out on McKinley.
27. Buffalo Bills – Tre’Davious White, CB,
LSU
The
Bills needed a cornerback after losing Stephon Gilmore in free agency. But they
need a lot of things, and cornerback really wasn’t at the top of the list. It
would be one thing if White was a great value, but this is probably a slight
reach. He does a lot of things well, and he’s as NFL ready as any cornerback in
this draft. But I don’t see a lot of room for growth, which is a bad sign for a
team that is still a couple years away.
28. Dallas Cowboys – Taco Charlton, DE,
Michigan
This
is another player I haven’t looked at much. I’ve only watched one game from him
so far, and I wasn’t particularly impressed. But I’ll watch a couple more and
write him up tomorrow.
29. Cleveland Browns – David Njoku, TE,
Miami
Man
this Browns draft is all over the place. I’ll probably go into a lot more
detail on them tomorrow, but for now I’ll just say that this is my favorite
pick of their three tonight. Njoku should have gone at least ten picks higher
than this. He’s raw, but he is a fantastic receiver and a decent blocker, and
his run after the catch ability is up their with the best running backs in this
class. I don’t know who the hell is going to be throwing him the ball, but
whoever it is they’ll be happy to have him.
30. Pittsburgh Steelers – TJ Watt, DE/OLB,
Wisconsin
The
Steelers now have two of the best athletes in the NFL coming off the edge of
their defense. Like Charlton I’ve only seen one game of Watt, so I’ll hold off
on judgment for now.
31. San Francisco 49ers – Reuben Foster, LB,
Alabama
A
month ago no one would have blinked an eye if the 49ers had selected Foster
with the second overall pick. I wasn’t as high on Foster as most people, but
even I think this is incredible value for him. The off the field questions are
something we’ll need some time to answer, but it seems strange that he would
fall this far just based on attitude concerns and the same drug test mishap that
didn’t seem to hurt a far inferior prospect like Jabrill Peppers. There has to
be some risk for him to fall this far, but he’s good enough that it is absolutely
worth it.
32. New Orleans Saints – Ryan Ramczyk, OT,
Wisconsin
Ramczyk
is the best offensive lineman in the draft, and he is good value at the end of
the first round. But that doesn’t mean it’s a good pick. New Orleans is set at
left tackle with Terron Armstead, one of the best young players in the league.
Two years ago they used a first round pick on Andrus Peat, and even though he
hasn’t excelled so far, I still think he has the ability to become a quality
starter on the right side. This is one of the few positions the Saints don’t
need, and I can’t for the life of me figure out why they did this.
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