2017 Mock Draft: What Should Happen

It’s that time again! We’re only two days away from the draft, so it’s time to do some mock drafts! As always I’m going to put out two different versions this year. The first is what would happen if I was in charge of every pick, and tomorrow I’ll what I think will actually happen. Once again, I will not be doing any trades, because the fun of a mock draft is working within the constraints of the draft order.

It’s common when discussing the draft to break it down into “drafting for need” versus “best player available”. I think that’s a fundamentally flawed way of looking at things. Need and skill are both variables that need to be factored in when making a decision. You don’t take someone at a position your team is set at just because you like him a little more than someone else, and you don’t pass up a clearly superior prospect just to fill a hole on your roster.

One other note for this particular mock draft. The thorniest question this year is what to do with Joe Mixon, an incredibly talented running back who was arrested for assaulting a woman in 2014. His crime (and the presence of a video that was released last December) means that the team that ends up drafting him will have to face serious questions from fans and media about whether they are endorsing and enabling this sort of behavior.

I love Mixon as a football player. If it wasn’t for the off the field stuff, he would probably go number four to Jacksonville in this mock draft. And I personally would have no problem with my team selecting Mixon. His crime was a one time incident for which he was punished both by the justice system and with a year long suspension from the football team. But before drafting him I would have to sit down and talk with him, his friends, his coaches, his family members, the victim, and anyone else connected to it. If I came away feeling that this was in fact an isolated incident, then I would have no problem drafting him.

But I haven’t done that. So I won’t put him in this mock draft. This feels like a cop-out, but anything I do would feel like a cop-out. I don’t have the answers here, and fortunately this is just a dumb, fun exercise. So try to act dumb and have fun as you read through this list.

(And now I feel the need to make a last second addition regarding the ongoing allegations regarding Gareon Conley. If I was going to start this over, he probably would end up not going in the first round, largely because of the uncertainty surrounding him right now. But this news just came out today, and I don't have time to rewrite half my mock draft. So he's staying in for now.)

If you want to read more about any of these prospects, check out my positional breakdowns.

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends
Cornerbacks
Linebackers and Defensive Tackles
Offensive Linemen
Running Backs
Safeties
Edge Defenders
Quarterbacks

1.     Cleveland Browns – Mitch Trubisky, QB, North Carolina

This is the toughest decision of this entire first round, and I have to say that I don’t envy the Browns for having to make it in real life. On the one hand, Myles Garrett is the best prospect in the draft. On the other, Trubisky is a quarterback. And while Garrett’s ceiling is the best player at the second most important position in football, even the tenth best quarterback is more valuable than that.

Ultimately I went with Trubisky because of the overall depth at the two positions in this draft. Trubisky is the best quarterback, and there might not be another quality starter available this year. There certainly isn’t anyone worth taking with Cleveland’s second first round pick at number twelve. On the other hand, though Garrett is the best pass rusher in this draft he is far from the only one with the upside as a Pro Bowl talent. The Browns will have a lot more chances to add impact defenders, which is why they can’t pass up this opportunity to fill the most important hole on their roster.

2.     San Francisco 49ers – Myles Garrett, DE/OLB, Texas A&M

With Trubisky off the board there is no debate about who the most valuable player is. Garrett is a sensational athlete with a well developed skillset, and he will slide immediately into a starting role in San Francisco. Alongside the past two 49ers first round picks Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner, this could quickly become the best front line in the league and remain at that level for years to come.

3.     Chicago Bears – Marshon Lattimore, CB, Ohio State

Lattimore is not refined enough to be put in the same category as Garrett, and his injury history worries me slightly. But his ceiling is almost undefined, and I just can’t justify taking any other player above him. Chicago’s defense came together down the stretch last year, but they still need someone to matchup on the outside, and Lattimore has the potential to be the cornerstone of their defense for years to come.

4.     Jacksonville Jaguars – Obi Melifonwu, S, Connecticut

There are two glaring flaws with this Jaguars roster: quarterback and offensive line. But neither position has any player worth taking for the next ten picks, so Jacksonville will once again have to add to their already young and talented defense. They filled a cornerback spot last year with Jalen Ramsey, and now they’ll do the same for the position next to him. Melifonwu is a premier athlete with excellent coverage skills, and he’ll make this defense even more daunting to face than it already is.

5.     Tennessee Titans – Zach Cunningham, LB, Vanderbilt

Cunningham is one of my favorite players in the draft, and if the Jaguars didn’t already have a couple young and talented linebackers I probably would have picked him over Melifonwu. He is strong in coverage, and his range has to be seen to be believed. He can’t be blocked, and he can’t be outrun. There are definitely things to clean up, and it might take a couple years before he’s a top flight starter, but the upside here is enough to justify this pick.

6.     New York Jets – Gareon Conley, CB, Ohio State

The Jets have taken a grand total of one offensive player in the first round of the past ten drafts, and they really do need to change things up. But there aren’t any offensive players worth taking at this spot, and they aren’t exactly lighting the world on fire with their defense either. Conley will fill in what has become a distressingly weak secondary over the past few years, giving them an aggressive playmaker who will generate turnovers to hopefully make things easier on the offense.

7.     Los Angeles Chargers – Jonathan Allen, DT/DE, Alabama

This is purely a value pick. The Chargers need help pretty much everywhere, so they grab the best player available. Allen will slot inside beside Defensive Rookie of the Year Joey Bosa, giving the Chargers a pair of versatile and powerful technicians to torment offensive lines. They’re still probably a couple years away from rebuilding this defense, but at this point every piece they add matters.

8.     Carolina Panthers – Charles Harris, DE/OLB, Missouri

Carolina’s current defensive ends are Julius Peppers and Charles Johnson, which was a great combination back in 2009. Both players are over 30 now, and they just traded away their best young edge rusher in Kony Ealy. Fortunately Harris is more than capable of assuming the role once their veterans move on. On tape he looks like a top five talent, and his subpar combine performance drops him into Carolina’s lap.

9.     Cincinnati Bengals – Reuben Foster, LB, Alabama

This is probably a little higher than Foster deserves to go, and there are more pressing issues with Cincinnati’s roster. But at the very least Foster will be a stable presence in the middle of their defense, someone that will make it easier to move on when Vontaze Burfict gets to be too much to control.

10.  Buffalo Bills – OJ Howard, TE, Alabama

The first non-quarterback offensive player falls all the way down to number ten, where he adds an extra weapon to Buffalo’s intriguing but still disappointing offense. Charles Clay never became what they hoped he would when they handed him a $38 million contract, but Howard is that player, a versatile tight end who can contribute as a receiver while also allowing them to be creative with their running attack thanks to his athletic ability as a blocker.

11.  New Orleans Saints – Derek Barnett, DE/OLB, Tennseee

New Orleans adds another talented young defender to their roster, this time on the edge. Barnett is one of the most productive pass rushers in college football history, but I think he has a clear ceiling in the NFL. He’s a bit of a one trick pony with his speed around the edge, but that trick is good enough to make him a worthwhile add outside the top ten.

12.  Cleveland Browns – Malik McDowell, DT/DE, Michigan State

McDowell isn’t the traditional edge rusher I was talking about above, but he can be just as disruptive as an interior force. He’s a sensational athlete, with a long frame and an impressive first step burst that can get him immediately into the quarterback’s face. I do have concerns with some of the attitude questions raised around him, especially going to the mess that is the Browns organization. But the talent is worth the risk, especially since they already have one first round pick to take the heat off him.

13.  Arizona Cardinals – Corey Davis, WR, Western Michigan

Larry Fitzgerald is going to get old one of these days, and with Michael Floyd imploding and then leaving the team the Cardinals are going to have to find a way to restock their receiving corps. Davis is the most well rounded of all the receiving prospects. His speed isn’t game breaking, and he isn’t going to make ridiculous jump ball catches, but he’s a capable route runner with room to improve on the next level.

14.  Philadelphia Eagles – Budda Baker, S, Washington

Philadelphia desperately needs to find talent to surround Carson Wentz with, but there isn’t anyone worth taking over Baker. Their secondary was the weak point of an otherwise strong defense, and a player with Baker’s versatility will only push them to a new level. It will take a couple years for him to fully mesh with a defensive unit and system, but when he does he has the potential to be a unique and dangerous weapon at every level of the field.

15.  Indianapolis Colts – Malik Hooker, S, Ohio State

Point to a spot on this roster other than quarterback, and the Colts need a player to fill it. They are in a position to draft the best player on the board, which in this case means the free ranging cover safety Hooker. Hooker will likely be a top ten pick in the actual draft, but I think that’s a bit too high for him. He is phenomenal in coverage, but he needs to become more polished filling lanes against the run. He may not be ready to start right away, though in Indianapolis there isn’t really anyone to keep him on the bench.

16.  Baltimore Ravens – Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State

Baltimore’s roster is quietly almost as thin as Indianapolis’s. They need new talent just about everywhere, and even though I kind of like Kenneth Dixon, I’m going to have to stick with my guns and give them the best player available. Cook has some concerns about his overall athletic ability, but if his college game can translate to the NFL he’ll be the sort of weapon Joe Flacco hasn’t had since Ray Rice, someone to take the heat off of him and open things up everywhere else on the field.

17.  Washington Redskins – Jamal Adams, S, LSU

I don’t particularly like the fit of this pick, but I can’t find anything better. The Redskins certainly need help on the back end, but what they really need is someone like Hooker, a rangy safety who can protect them over the top. Adams isn’t that. He’s an in the box, flow everywhere, run stuffer who struggles when asked to play in coverage. And Washington already has a player to fit that role, in last year’s second round pick Su’a Cravens. But Adams is the best player left on the board, and there aren’t any holes on this roster glaring enough to justify a reach. So they’ll have to settle for figuring out how to utilize two talented but flawed heat seeking missiles on the back end.

18.  Tennessee Titans – David Njoku, TE, Miami

This came down to Njoku and John Ross. I think Ross is a better prospect, but Njoku is a much better fit for the scheme and talent in Tennessee. Marcus Mariota never could figure out how to use the small and fast Kendall Wright, but Delanie Walker has emerged as his go to target. Njoku will add another versatile passing and blocking weapon to their offensive arsenal, with the ability to take an underneath pass and tear through an opposing secondary with the athleticism of a wide receiver.

19.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Alvin Kamara, RB, Tennessee

This is probably too high for Kamara, but he’s too much fun for me to pass up here. As a runner he still has a lot of work to do, but if you can get the ball in his hands in open space there isn’t much that can be done to stop him. Tampa Bay has the makings of a top flight offense, and they have enough depth in their backfield that they can take a chance on someone they can deploy in creative ways.

20.  Denver Broncos – Ryan Ramczyk, OT, Wisconsin

Denver needs offensive linemen desperately, and they are in a perfect position to get the best one in the draft. Ramczyk’s ceiling may not be high, and he’ll struggle with some of the elite pass rushers in the league (which is why it probably won’t be great if he ends up in a division with Khalil Mack, Justin Houston, and Joey Bosa). But he’s as solid as you’ll get in this weak line class, and Denver isn’t in a position to be picky.

21.  Detroit Lions – John Ross, WR, Washington

Ross has some injury questions, but he’s a steal at the 21^st pick, and an absolute need for the Lions. Golden Tate is a fantastic receiver, and Marvin Jones isn’t a bad option as a number two, but the depth at the position is lacking, and they need to make a move for the future. The big story on Ross is obviously his speed, and that’s where he’ll be most valuable early in his career. But he has the potential to develop into a much more complete receiver, and Detroit is a good situation for him to ease into a larger role.

22.  Miami Dolphins – Takk McKinley, DE/OLB, UCLA

Miami has some good stuff going on offense, but their defense is almost bare of young talent. Cameron Wake is coming off of a strong year, but he’s also 35 years old. McKinley will never be the pure pass rusher Wake was, but he’ll be a consistent force in all aspects of the game, able to stack up the run on early downs and bring occasional pressure off the edge in passing situations.

23.  New York Giants – Dan Feeney, OG, Indiana

Everything I said about Denver applies to the Giants. They need help on the offensive line, and this is the perfect spot to grab the best guard. Feeney isn’t a mauler like other guards you’ll see, but he’s very comfortable working in space, and he’s the sort of player you can scheme around to hide his weaknesses.

24.  Oakland Raiders – Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU

Yeah, I know about the Marshawn Lynch and Adrian Peterson talk. But neither of those things have happened yet, and the possibility of Fournette in Oakland is too exciting to pass up. I’m still not entirely sure if he’s a good running back, but I know that he’s a fun one, and behind a good offensive line he can do a lot of damage. Oakland is probably the best case scenario for him, behind a line that matches his power, aggression, and overall nastiness. Oakland would absolutely bury defenses with this combination, opening things up even more for their dangerous passing attack.

25.  Houston Texans – DeShone Kizer, QB, Notre Dame

We all celebrated when Houston managed to unload Brock Osweiler, but that excitement dims a little when we realize they are left with Tom Savage and Brandon Weeden as their only quarterback options. Kizer needs some work, but after Trubisky he has the best chance of finding success in the NFL, and maybe the highest upside of any quarterback in this draft. And for a quarterback with accuracy concerns, there are worse things than being partnered with DeAndre Hopkins.

26.  Seattle Seahawks – Forrest Lamp, OG/OT, Western Kentucky

The biggest question with Lamp is which question he will play in the NFL. This isn’t an issue for Seattle, since they need help at every single spot along the offensive line. I don’t know if Lamp can make it at tackle (though I do know he’s better than last year’s first round pick, Germain Ifedi), but wherever he ends up he’ll be at least a replacement level starter, which would be a massive step up from what the Seahawks are working with now.

27.  Kansas City Chiefs – JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, USC

Smith-Schuster is the perfect wide receiver for the Chiefs. He isn’t the fastest player on the field, but Kansas City isn’t looking to take many deep shots, and when they do they’ll be better off targeting Tyreek Hill. Smith-Schuster will control the middle of the field, working in tandem with Travis Kelce to pick defenses apart piece by piece underneath.

28.  Dallas Cowboys – Solomon Thomas, DE, Stanford

I’m not nearly as high on Thomas as everyone else is. I see a player without a defined position, someone who will be beaten up on the inside and will fail to generate enough speed to win on the edge. That said, his athletic ability makes it hard to justify letting him fall out of the first round. I don’t know where he fits in Dallas, or if he fits at all. But Rod Marinelli is one of the best defensive line coaches in football, and if anyone can harness Thomas’s raw ability it will be him.

29.  Green Bay Packers – Jarrad Davis, LB, Florida

Davis needs to do a lot of work before he is a capable enough run defender to be trusted on every down, but in the meantime he is the perfect player for a nickel linebacker role. He is comfortable in both man and zone coverage, chasing tight ends and running backs wherever they leak to on the field. Green Bay has needed inside linebackers for years, and this is the ideal part of the draft to take a player like Davis with decent upside and only a little bit of risk.

30.  Pittsburgh Steelers – Haason Reddick, LB, Temple

Pittsburgh desperately needs a consistent pass rushing presence so they can stop throwing James Harrison out on the field with players half his age. Unfortunately, the best pure pass rushers are gone, so they’ll have to make do with Reddick, a hybrid with remarkable athleticism and intriguing potential. Reddick was primarily an edge rusher at Temple, and even though he doesn’t have the size or strength to cut it at that position in the NFL, his explosive athleticism will allow him to threaten in specific situations while he plays a more off the ball role. Pittsburgh loves blitzing their inside linebackers, and Reddick is the perfect athlete to fill that position.

31.  Atlanta Falcons – Cam Robinson, OT, Alabama

Atlanta desperately needs defensive help, but there really isn’t anyone worth taking here. So they’ll shore up their offensive line again and hope that their young talent takes a step forward on the other side of the ball. And it never hurts to add to the offensive line, the weak part of that unit last year. Jake Matthews is a stable but unspectacular presence on the left side, while Ryan Schraeder is a weak point on the right. Robinson will stabilize things immediately, and if he can live up to his potential he can be an upgrade protecting Matt Ryan’s blind side down the road.

32.  New Orleans Saints – Pat Mahomes, QB, Texas Tech

This is a pick that won’t make Drew Brees happy. They traded away one of his top receivers, and they use the selection they received in return to grab his potential replacement. But the Saints have wasted too many years trying to prolong their window, and at a certain point they have to admit that they’re done. They’ve made some smart selections over the past few years, and they have a core to build around. They might even be able to put something together in Brees’s final seasons. But he’ll be gone in two or three years, which is coincidentally when Mahomes will be ready to play in the NFL.