2015 Mock Draft: Harsh Reality

 

Yesterday I put together a mock draft of what would happen if I was in charge on every team. I have since been informed that I am not actually in charge of a single NFL franchise. So I decided just to accept reality, to put out a mock draft of what I think will happen rather than what I think should happen. I haven't included any trades, since opening the possibility of trades kind of defeats the purpose of a mock draft. But I did mention trade possibilities in a few spots where they are likely to occur.

 

In case you’re curious about any of these prospects, I wrote up every position group over the past month.

Quarterback

Wide Receiver and Tight End

Running Back

Offensive Line

Interior Defensive Line

Pass Rusher

Linebacker and Safety

Cornerback

There are also a few prospects I didn’t get a chance to look at, prospects who have been climbing up boards recently and may sneak up into the first round. Here are a few more names to keep your eyes on.

Nelson Agholor, WR, USC

Cameron Erving, OL, Florida State

Preston Smith, DE, Mississippi State

Stephone Anthony, LB, Clemson

Eric Rowe, CB/S, Utah

Damarius Randle, S, Arizona State

If any of these players do get drafted in the first round, I’ll try to take a quick look at their tape before I post my breakdown of the first round.

 

1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State

I don’t have much to say on this one. Winston will be the first pick, he’ll end up with the Buccaneers, and he has a very good chance of being the quarterback there for the next decade. He’ll have an up and down rookie year, making a lot of great plays and a lot of terrible ones. I’m not sure if this is the best environment for him (questionable coaching staff and still very close proximity to the problems he had in college), but it’s where he’s going to end up.

2) Tennessee Titans – Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon

Okay, I covered this one on Sunday. Mariota is probably going to be drafted with the second pick. It may or may not be by the Titans. For now, since I’m not projecting trades, I’m just going to give him to Tennessee. It would be a good pick, and it would help their team in the long run. Mariota isn’t the second best player in this draft, but his position makes it worthwhile value.

3) Jacksonville Jaguars – Dante Fowler, DE/OLB, Florida

Here’s the first (but not the last) position where both my mock drafts overlap. Fowler is an incredibly talented and incredibly athletic prospect, and he could form the core of a dangerous pass rush for years. I could also see the Jaguars selecting Vic Beasley if they believe he’s a better fit for his scheme, or Leonard Williams if they feel his is a superior player. Williams doesn’t fit a need as well, but for a player of his talent they can make it work.

4) Oakland Raiders – Leonard Williams, DE/DT, USC

This pick probably comes down to three players: Amari Cooper, Kevin White, or Williams. All three are talented players, and all three would immediately improve Oakland’s roster. I decided to go with Williams because most people believe he is the better player, and because Oakland’s offseason moves have done more to address the holes at receiver than on the defensive line. I could definitely see them adding help for Derek Carr, and if they did so I think they would probably choose Cooper over White.

5) Washington Redskins – Vic Beasley, DE/OLB, Clemson

Washington really doesn’t want to make this pick. If there is one team I am most confident will make a trade, it's be the Redskins. They could use a pass rusher, but they have much more serious needs at cornerback and offensive line, needs that have better value later in the first round. If they can’t find anyone interested in trading up, they’ll take the best pass rusher available, likely Beasley.

6) New York Jets – Bud Dupree, DE/OLB, Kentucky

Dupree has been shooting up draft boards since the season ended, putting together a fantastic performance at the combine. The Jets need a pass rusher, and I expect they’ll choose the raw prospect over more skilled players like Gregory and Ray. Never mind that this is the exact same spot where they selected Vernon Gholston in 2008. This is probably a bit too high for Dupree, but even if the Jets don’t take him I expect he’ll still end up in the top ten.

7) Chicago Bears – Kevin White, WR, West Virginia

I don’t particularly like this pick, but I do think the Bears will end up taking a wide receiver. They need a second option opposite Alshon Jeffery, and White would give them a pair of big, physical talents on the outside. I think they have several more pressing needs on the defensive side of the ball, and they could invest in either a pass rusher or a nose tackle like Danny Shelton.

8) Atlanta Falcons – Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia

Here’s where things get interesting. Atlanta needs a pass rusher, but people have soured on both Randy Gregory and Shane Ray. With Fowler, Beasley, and Dupree off the board, the Falcons will address another major need. Now that concerns over Gurley’s knees have been cleaned up, he can be judged on merit alone, and on merit alone he is a top ten player in the draft. The demise of the running back position has been overblown, and whether it is the Falcons or someone else, I think Gurley will end up in the top ten.

9) New York Giants – Brandon Scherff, OG, Iowa

Scherff is the best guard in the draft, and he will probably go in the top ten. The Giants seem like the most likely destination, as they have no other major needs that line up with players in this range. They could use some help at safety or at linebacker, but neither of those positions is worth taking this high. Scherff is the most likely option, though I could see them as a team who could possibly go for Gurley if he is there for them.

10) St Louis Rams – Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama

The Rams have invested a lot in wide receivers over the past few years, and they have more pressing needs at both offensive line and cornerback. But with Cooper available at this point, they simply can’t pass up this level of a prospect. Cooper is the most NFL ready receiver to enter the league in a very long time, and his upside is far better than people think. The coaching staff has shown that they can’t develop wide receivers, so they’ll do the smart thing and grab one who doesn’t need much developing.

11) Minnesota Vikings – DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville

This is obviously the most important selection to me, so I’m going to go a bit more in depth on it. Most reports have the Vikings connected to Trae Waynes, a cornerback to put opposite Xavier Rhodes. This would make a lot of success, but I can’t help being a little skeptical. Over the past few years no one has blown smoke like Vikings GM Rick Spielman, and he could just be trying to get a team like the Saints or the Dolphins to trade up. Then again, there probably isn’t a coach more straightforward than Mike Zimmer, and he’s been seen doing a lot of work with Waynes at various workouts.

Waynes could very well end up being the pick, as could someone a bit more unexpected like Randy Gregory or Marcus Peters. But I think their true target is DeVante Parker. There is obviously the Louisville connection between Bridgewater and Parker, but I don’t see that as a reason to draft him. Whoever they get at wide receiver, they have time to build up chemistry with the quarterback. I think they’ll take Parker because he’s the best player on the board, and because he fills an immediate need on the outside, a big receiver to complement their smaller, faster guys.

12) Cleveland Browns – Danny Shelton, DT, Washington

Everything I’m hearing suggests that the Browns love Shelton, to the point that they are willing to jump up a few spots just to make certain he isn’t taken before he gets to them. They were one of the worst defenses in the league against the run last year, and Shelton will offer an immediate body in the middle to stuff things up. His upside is tremendous, especially if he can harness his athleticism as a productive pass rusher. Of course, this all goes completely out the window if they follow through on the rumor that they are planning to trade both their first round picks to acquire Mariota.

13) New Orleans Saints – Randy Gregory, DE/OLB, Nebraska

Concerns over Gregory’s weight and his failed drug test drop him from the top ten, to the benefit of the Saints. New Orleans has been looking for a top notch pass rusher for years, and Gregory finally gives them true talent on the edge. He moves very well for his height, and he has the technical skill to contribute immediately. New Orleans is looking to quickly revamp their defense, and Gregory offers the most immediate impact of any of the top pass rushers in the draft.

14) Miami Dolphins – Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State

Waynes could very easily go higher than this on draft night. Number five to the Redskins has an outside shot, but the spot where I’d start watching is the Rams at number 10. There are a lot of cornerback needy teams, and I could see someone trading up for him. I could also see him suffering a fall, as teams begin to poke at his questionable agility scores. So I plopped him down somewhere in the middle, to a team desperately in need of a second cornerback and in a position where none of their other needs present great value.

15) San Francisco 49ers – Arik Armstead, DE/DT, Oregon

Another spot where my two mock drafts line up. This pick makes sense in reality for the same reasons it makes sense if I was put in charge. Armstead fills a hole, offers high upside, and is properly valued in the middle of the round. He’ll take the pressure off Aldon Smith as a pass rusher, helping the 49ers reclaim some measure of their defensive dominance.

16) Houston Texans – Eric Kendricks, LB, UCLA

Last year an undersized but athletic linebacker went higher than most people expected. Ryan Shazier was grabbed by the Steelers at number 15, and I can see Kendricks going in a similar range. Houston has no glaring needs, and they could go several directions with this pick. But I think they end up grabbing the high upside linebacker to shore up the middle of their defense.

17) San Diego Chargers – La’el Collins, OT/OG, LSU

If San Diego doesn’t move up to grab Mariota, they will turn their attention fully to building around Philip Rivers for the next few seasons. They could use a running back, but their most glaring weakness on offense is their line. Collins can play either on the inside or outside, starting from day one and contributing in both the run and the pass game.

18) Kansas City Chiefs – Breshad Perriman, WR, UCF

Kansas City is desperately in need of a playmaker on the outside after going an entire season without a touchdown by a wide receiver. I was tempted to give them Dorial Green-Beckham as a red zone threat, but over the course of his time in Kansas City and Philadelphia, Andy Reid has shown a consistent preference for smaller, faster receivers. Perriman is bigger than players like Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson, but he has the sort of blazing speed Reid loves on the edges of his offense.

19) Cleveland Browns – Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State

In the mock draft I posted yesterday, I had the Browns ending up with Danny Shelton and Jaelen Strong. In the draft I’m posting today, same exact thing. Cleveland was wretchedly thin at wide receiver back when they had any hope of Josh Gordon contributing, and now it is almost laughable how little they have. Strong needs a lot of work, but he has enough physicality to contribute immediately, similar to Kelvin Benjamin’s rookie season.

20) Philadelphia Eagles – Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Oklahoma

Green-Beckham is going to be a first rounder. A lot of teams are very concerned about his off the field issues, but it only takes one to decide he’s worth the risk. In this case I think that one team will be the Eagles. Just as Andy Reid loves fast receivers, Chip Kelly loves big receivers. He also loves himself, and I’d wager he is completely convinced that he can control Green-Beckham off the field and get the most of him on the field.

21) Cincinnati Bengals – Shane Ray, DE, Missouri

Ray’s plummet down the draft boards has been long and brutal, taking the next step this past week when he was cited for marijuana possession. I don’t think that will significantly affect his stock, not nearly as much as rumors of a serious injury and his failure in the athletic tests. He might fall out of the first round, but I think he’d be a perfect fit for Cincinnati’s scheme, starting as a rotational defensive end and working into a larger role as he develops more advanced technique.

22) Pittsburgh Steelers – Marcus Peters, CB, Washington

Another selection where my two mock drafts overlap. Many consider Peters to be the most talented cornerback in the draft, and he only falls this far due to issues with the coaching staff that got him kicked off Washington’s team last year. Reports are that he’s a bit overcompetitive, and that he wasn’t happy with what he saw as a rebuilding year his final season in college. His best chance of success is to go to a team with a strong and stable coaching staff, and no team fits this profile better than Pittsburgh.

23) Detroit Lions – Malcom Brown, DT, Texas

I’m not as high on Brown as most people. Some seem to believe he’ll go higher than this, possibly even in the first half of the round. This is a much smaller reach, by a team desperate to fill a gaping hole. I don’t anticipate the Lions using this pick on an offensive player, but they could try to grab a cornerback or a safety to bolster the back end of their defense rather than the front. Teryl Austin has shown himself to be a phenomenal defensive coordinator, and I trust that he can rework his scheme to compensate for a change in personnel.

24) Arizona Cardinals – Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin

Arizona has been pushing to get Adrian Peterson this offseason, and while I wouldn’t rule out a draft day trade, it seems that they aren’t willing to pay the price the Vikings are asking. Instead they’ll fill their hole at running back by grabbing one of the top two in the draft. If Gurley goes in the top ten as some expect, I could see Gordon making a similar leap up the board as teams panic and reevaluate how people perceive the running backs. But in this situation he falls to Arizona, a suitable overlap of need and talent.

25) Carolina Panthers – DJ Humphries, OT, Florida

Carolina is going to take an offensive tackle. The only question is which offensive tackle. There is a lot of disagreement about who the best lineman in the draft is, but the most consistent name near the top of these lists is Humphries. He has tremendous upside, and he flashes enough ability to start immediately for a team desperately in need.

26) Baltimore Ravens – Landon Collins, S, Alabama

This isn’t a pick I’ve seen mocked very often, but it makes a lot of sense. The Ravens used a first round pick on safety Matt Elam two years ago, and so far he’s been a major disappointment. Even if he does pick it up, they could still use some help on their back end. Collins is a talented player who has fallen some due to concerns over his mobility, the result of an injury his final year in college. He deserves to go higher than this, and the Ravens do as they always do, smartly grabbing a talented player at a good value.

27) Dallas Cowboys – Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest

Johnson has seen a recent surge in popularity, and some are now projecting him as the top cornerback in the draft. I’m still not entirely certain about him. I like what I see, but I’m not confident in his ability to track receivers in man coverage after he played primarily zone in college. At this point in the first round, however, the risk is definitely worth taking. Dallas needs to start building their defense up, and Johnson might be able to make up for some of the damage done by the Morris Claiborne selection three years ago.

28) Denver Broncos – Cameron Erving, OL, Florida State

Denver’s offensive line was their greatest weakness last year, particularly on the inside. They couldn’t run the ball at all, and by the end they couldn’t keep Manning upright. Erving is projected primarily as a center, but he has experience playing everywhere on the line and could conceivably start at guard. His versatility will give Gary Kubiak a lot to play with as he tries to reshape this offense.

29) Indianapolis Colts – Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford

Peat has been getting a lot of interesting buzz over the past few weeks, and don’t be surprised if he goes much higher than this, possibly even as high as the number six to the Jets, who are reportedly very high on him. But I think he’ll end up being available near the end of the first round, where a team with a shaky offensive line can snag him for good value. There are still a lot of connections between Indianapolis and Stanford, and I think they’ll be smart to add another Cardinal to their offense.

30) Green Bay Packers – Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State

The Packers addressed the need on their interior somewhat by resigning BJ Raji and Letroy Guion, but neither is a long term solution. Goldman is a younger, healthier version of Raji, a disruptive space eater who can absorb multiple blockers. Their more pressing need is at inside linebacker, and I could see them reaching for someone like Shaq Thompson or Benardrick McKinney (or snagging Eric Kendricks if he falls farther than I expect). This is a pressing need, but it’s also one easily addressed in the second round.

31) New Orleans Saints – Byron Jones, CB, Connecticut

The safer cornerback picks are off the board, forcing New Orleans to gamble on the one with the highest upside. Jones absolutely torched the Combine, setting a world record in the broad jump and launching himself into the first round conversation. His coverage skills have been a bit overrated, and New Orleans might stray away from him if they’re looking for someone with more immediate impact. But I think at this they are committed to rebuilding their defense from the bottom up, even if it means wasting the last few years of Drew Brees’s career.

32) New England Patriots – Eric Rowe, CB/S, Utah

New England is in the midst of reshuffling their defense. Last year they built their scheme around a talented and deep secondary, but with the losses of Brandon Browner and Darrelle Revis it appears they are switching their focus to their pass rush. They still need some help at the back end, and Belichick loves versatile players like the athletic Rowe, who will start as a cornerback but could transition to safety much as Devin McCourty did.

2015 Mock Draft: If I Ruled the World

When putting together a mock draft, you have to face a slightly awkward question. Are you putting together a draft based on what you think will happen, or are you putting together a draft based on what you think should happen? Most people do some combination of the two, leaving the whole thing a bit muddled. I’ve decided to simplify things by creating two separate mock drafts, starting today with what would happen if I was put in charge of every pick.

In case you’re curious about any of these prospects, I wrote up every position group over the past month.

Quarterback

Wide Receiver and Tight End

Running Back

Offensive Line

Interior Defensive Line

Pass Rusher

Linebacker and Safety

Cornerback

There are also a few prospects I didn’t get a chance to look at, prospects who have been climbing up boards recently and may sneak up into the first round. Here are a few more names to keep your eyes on.

Nelson Agholor, WR, USC

Cameron Erving, OL, Florida State

Preston Smith, DE, Mississippi State

Stephone Anthony, LB, Clemson

Eric Rowe, CB/S, Utah

Damarius Randle, S, Arizona State

If any of these players do get drafted in the first round, I’ll try to take a quick look at their tape before I post my breakdown of the first round.

1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon

This one was very close, but I ultimately decided on Mariota over Winston. Quarterback is obviously Tampa Bay’s biggest need, and there are two easy solutions available at the top of the draft. Mariota is a much safer bet, and though I don’t have much faith in Tampa Bay’s coaching staff to use him properly, I still have faith that in the long run he will be their quarterback solution.

2) Tennessee Titans – Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State

This makes it easy for the Titans. They are considering dealing this pick in the actual draft, but if I’m running things they will happily take Winston. He’ll have ups and downs during his rookie season, but with players like Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter to sling the ball to, there will be a lot to look forward to in Tennessee. This is probably the easiest pick I had to make in this entire draft.

3) Jacksonville Jaguars – Dante Fowler, DE/OLB, Florida

Actually, no, this one might be easier. Jacksonville’s pass rush was more productive last year than people realize, but they definitely need talent on the edge. Fowler is the best defensive player in the draft, and he is right there with Amari Cooper for the best overall. Since the Jaguars invested so much in wide receivers last year, it makes more sense to use this pick on young talent to bolster the defensive side of the ball.

4) Oakland Raiders – Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama

Derek Carr had an okay rookie season, with good touchdown and interception numbers that hid an atrocious yards per attempt. If he’s going to have any long term success he will need to throw the ball farther downfield, and if he’s going to go farther downfield he’ll need a target that can get open. Cooper will be Carr’s best friend, a reliable receiver who can create consistent separation and run any route.

5) Washington Redskins – Randy Gregory, DE/OLB, Nebraska

I don’t think pass rusher is a great need for Washington, but since I’m not doing trades they just have to settle for the best player available. Gregory is an athletic monster, and his game is far more developed than you’d expect from a player who only saw two years of major college football. There might be some concerns over a player of his height having to translate to a standup role in Washington’s 3-4, but he showed plenty of success when rushing from a two point stance at Nebraska. He’ll slide seamlessly into the role abandoned by Brian Orakpo, and hopefully he’ll actually be able to stay healthy.

6) New York Jets – Vic Beasley, DE/OLB, Clemson

It seems weird to give the Jets another defensive player, considering they haven’t used a first round pick on offense since 2009. But I actually kind of like how their offense is built, with the exception of the quarterback position. With no solution available there, I solve the biggest hole on their defense. The Jets have been in need of a pass rusher for years, and Beasley fits well into Todd Bowles’s scheme.

7) Chicago Bears – Leonard Williams, DT/DE, USC

I’m not as high on Williams as most people, but this is still probably too low for him. He is one of the most physically gifted players in the draft, and by cleaning up his technique he can become a superstar. Even though they have need at receiver, I can’t stomach passing up the possibility to add young talent to a defense that is almost completely barren.

8) Atlanta Falcons – Shane Ray, DE/OLB, Missouri

This is right about the range where I started to get very tempted to put Todd Gurley. But I just can’t stomach having a running back in the top ten, no matter how talented Gurley is. Instead I filled the hole Atlanta’s been desperate to fill for the past two years. Kroy Biermann led the team with 4.5 sacks last year. That is unacceptable. There are concerns about Ray’s athleticism and potential injury risk, but if he’s healthy he will immediately become Atlanta’s best pass rusher.

9) New York Giants – La’el Collins, OT/OG, LSU

Collins isn’t the highest rated offensive lineman on my board, but I put him here ahead of Andrus Peat because he offers more versatility. The Giants need help pretty much everywhere along the line, and Collins could theoretically slide into any role. If they’re comfortable with Will Beatty and Justin Pugh at tackle, they can put Collins at left guard. If they want to move Pugh inside, they can put Collins at right tackle. Peat is the better player, but Collins’s versatility gets him drafted first.

10) St Louis Rams – DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville

Parker is the best player remaining, and he fits a hole in St Louis’s roster. Sam Bradford has held back their deep passing game for years, and they finally got a breath of fresh air last season. Parker can stretch the field, and he is a fantastic red zone threat. I don’t believe in Jeff Fisher at head coach, and I certainly don’t believe in Nick Foles at quarterback. But if either of them is going to succeed, it’s with a player like Parker.

11) Minnesota Vikings – Kevin White, WR, West Virginia

This one’s simple. The Vikings have bigger needs than wide receiver, but they need a receiver enough that they can just take the best player available. White will add some physicality to a receiving corps that’s built almost entirely on speed. Oh, and he happens to have fantastic speed as well. He’s still raw (though not nearly as much as Cordarrelle Patterson) but he will have a chance to develop with Teddy Bridgewater.                          

12) Cleveland Browns – Danny Shelton, DT, Washington

Last year was supposed to be the year when Cleveland’s defense took a big step forward. It didn’t happen. Their early season success was almost entirely due to their offense, and when their running game and quarterback play fell off, the team collapsed. Their pass defense could use some improvement, but the biggest problem is their run defense, where they ranked near the bottom of the league last season. Shelton will help them stuff up the middle of the field, and he might be able to offer enough of a pass rush to support their secondary.

13) New Orleans Saints – Eric Kendricks, LB, UCLA

I really like Kendricks, and I don’t think this is too high for him. New Orleans is desperately trying to revamp their defense, and with no pass rusher worth taking at this point they’ll go for a super athletic inside linebacker who can contribute on all three downs. Kendricks will improve them immediately against both the run and the pass, and wherever he goes he’s my early choice for Defensive Rookie of the Year.

14) Miami Dolphins – Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State

Waynes is the best cornerback in the draft, but he’s not as good as some people think he is. This is still probably a bit of a reach, but there is no one available that really fits Miami’s biggest needs. They could use help on the interior offensive line, but this is too high for Scherff. They could use a safety, but this is too high for Collins. Waynes isn’t a ridiculous reach, and he fills a hole opposite Brent Grimes at cornerback.

15) San Francisco 49ers – Arik Armstead, DE/DT, Oregon

This pick didn’t take long to decide on. Armstead is a borderline top ten player in my mind, and only a lack of schematic fit caused him to fall this far. This is a common projection in many mock drafts, and it’s very likely that it will be the same when I post my second mock on Wednesday. Justin Smith is probably retiring, and they need someone to fill his shoes, someone to control tackles and eat space to allow their linebackers to flow and make plays in the backfield.

16) Houston Texans – Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Oklahoma

I considered going a lot of ways with this one before settling on wide receiver. Running back, offensive line, cornerback, but ultimately Green-Beckham was the best fit of talent and need. DeAndre Hopkins had a breakout season last year, but he isn’t good enough to carry a passing game on his own. Green-Beckham can come into a number two role, where he’ll face less pressure and have more time to develop than if a team drafted him to be a number one.

17) San Diego Chargers – Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia

In this hypothetical mock draft, the Chargers retain hold of Philip Rivers and continue to rely on him as their starting quarterback. With this being the case, they can’t afford to grab a developmental project like Bud Dupree. They need someone who can contribute right away, and there is no one more NFL ready than Gurley. Running back is a very easy position to make the transition from college, and Gurley has enough talent that he could be an All Pro player from the moment he steps onto the field.

18) Kansas City Chiefs – Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford

Kansas City’s disaster of a receiving corps received all the attention last season, but their offensive line was nearly as bad. I’m not ready to give up on Eric Fisher yet, but another year like his first two would probably get me there. Peat can play right tackle at first, and he can move over to the left side long term if Fisher continues to struggle. It won’t solve all of Kansas City’s offensive troubles, but it’s a start.

19) Cleveland Browns – Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State

There may not be any position on any team more barren than wide receiver for the Browns. Having spent their first pick to address the defensive side of the ball, they almost have to grab the top receiver available. That receiver is Strong, a big, physical talent who needs a lot of polishing before he can really make his mark in the NFL. Ideally his development curve would work in tune with Johnny Manziel’s, and until then his size and strength will be a good bailout option for the young quarterback.

20) Philadelphia Eagles – Landon Collins, S, Alabama

Philadelphia did a lot of work to improve their secondary this offseason, but they still have a glaring hole at safety. They could also use a wide receiver or a quarterback, but Collins provides the best value at number 20. He’ll add some force to the box while Malcolm Jenkins plays over the top, the final piece of their defensive restoration.

21) Cincinnati Bengals – Bud Dupree, DE/OLB, Kentucky

Cincinnati’s pass rush was atrocious last season, in large part because they haven’t invested high picks in pass rushers. They have some interesting edge players in Michael Johnson and Carlos Dunlap, but neither is going to pile up sacks in large numbers. Dupree absolutely has the potential to do so, regardless of where they put him on their defense. They still run a scheme similar to former defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer’s, and I could see them using Dupree similarly to Minnesota’s use of Anthony Barr last year.

22) Pittsburgh Steelers – Marcus Peters, CB, Washington

Here is Pittsburgh’s current starting secondary: Cortez Allen, Shamarko Thomas, Mike Mitchell, and BW Webb. They haven’t spent a pick in either of the first two rounds on a defensive back since 2005, and they can’t afford to wait any longer. Peters is the most pro ready cornerback in this draft, and he will immediately become a starter without much competition.

23) Detroit Lions – Jordan Phillips, DT, Oklahoma

Detroit put together one of the league’s top defenses last year thanks to the strength of their defensive line. But Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley both left in free agency, and the addition of Haloti Ngata is not enough to make up for that on his own. Phillips isn’t as talented as either Suh or Fairley, but he can certainly bring some measure of the disruptiveness that allowed their defense to excel last season.

24) Arizona Cardinals – Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin

Andre Ellington is a useful player, but he showed very clearly last season that he cannot handle a full time role. Arizona needs a starting caliber running back, and if they can’t make a trade for Adrian Peterson, then Gordon is their best bet. He’ll be a good compliment for Ellington, a larger and more physical back who comes off the field in passing situations.

25) Carolina Panthers – DJ Humphries, OT, Florida

Last year Carolina had two major holes in the draft. They somewhat fixed their wide receiver problems, but they did absolutely nothing to help their offensive line. Humphries can start at either tackle for them from day one, and they can fill in the other spot using either of the free agents they signed. It’s still not great, but it’s the next step in building their offense around Cam Newton.

26) Baltimore Ravens – Breshad Perriman, WR, UCF

If there’s one thing Joe Flacco does well, it’s throw the ball deep. And say whatever you will about Perriman, he certainly can run a deep route. The Ravens lost their burner Torrey Smith this offseason, and they need someone to bring that vertical element to their passing game. Perriman might take time to reach Smith’s level, but his ceiling is significantly higher.

27) Dallas Cowboys – Owa Odighizuwa, DE, UCLA

Dallas managed to scrap together a functional defense last year thanks to a tremendous coaching job by defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli. But now they need some actual talent, and they’ll get it in the form of Odighizuwa. Marinelli is one of the best defensive line coaches in the NFL has ever seen, and teaming him with a prospect of Odighizuwa’s athleticism is almost unfair.

28) Denver Broncos – Brandon Scherff, OG, Iowa

The Broncos may have only one more year before their Manning window closes, and they need to draft someone who can help them right now. Their offensive line was deceptively terrible last season, hurting them in both the run and passing game. Scherff might not do much to improve their pass protection, but he can blow holes open in the running game to give their offense the versatility they had during their Super Bowl run two years ago.

29) Indianapolis Colts – TJ Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh

Indianapolis is at a weird point. They are desperately in win now mode, but they also have to start building for the future with Andrew Luck. Clemmings better suits that latter goal, a high upside offensive lineman who will need some time to develop. In the short term he might be able to fill their hole at right guard, while in the long run he can be developed as a potential starting left tackle.

30) Green Bay Packers – Jalen Collins, CB, LSU

Green Bay needs an inside linebacker, and I strongly considered giving them Shaq Thompson. But I think Collins is a better prospect, especially for a team that doesn’t want to waste time trying to figure out what exactly Thompson is. They have two solid cornerbacks in Sam Shields and Casey Heyward, but Heyward has injury issues and is better in the slot. Collins might need a year or so to really develop, but he’ll eventually be able to step in as a starter on the outside.

31) New Orleans Saints – Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State

New Orleans desperately needs someone opposite Keenan Lewis at cornerback, but both times they picked there really wasn’t a good value to be found. So instead they fill one of their other needs on defense, a run stuffer in the middle. I’m not a huge fan of Goldman, but he’s the only defensive tackle out there at this point who can line up over center play in and play out. He’ll eat the blockers placed ahead of him, giving Kendricks space to scrape after the ball.

32) New England Patriots – Duke Johnson, RB, Miami

This seems like a strange pick, but it makes a lot of sense for what New England needs. Bill Belichick has a bit of a reputation for cycling through running backs, but if he ends up with one as talented as Johnson he will stick with him. Johnson can do a lot of the same things Shane Vereen did as a receiver, and he can contribute more frequently as a runner. Their offense needs some playmakers, and Johnson is one of the few playmakers in this draft who can contribute right away for a team with Super Bowl aspirations.

The Marcus Mariota Puzzle

The draft is now less than a week away. I’ve broken down the top prospects, and I was probably going to just move on to my mock drafts, as I did last year. But something came up as I was preparing these mock drafts, an unpleasant complication: Marcus Mariota.

Over the past couple weeks it has become increasingly clear that Tampa Bay will be taking Jameis Winston with the first overall pick. They haven’t made it official in any way, but it would be a major shock if something else happened. But with the second pick, things start to get interesting. Because while it seems reasonably certain that Mariota will be the second player off the board, no one is quite sure which team will be doing the picking.

I don’t project trades in my mock drafts because I feel they defeat the purpose, but in a situation with these stakes, I feel like it’s necessary to take a look at what may or may not happen. Any trade likely won’t occur until after the Buccaneers have made their pick. No one wants to leap up for Mariota only to have him taken off the board, and the Titans would hate to drop down and miss out on the possibility of Winston falling to them. Until then we have only wild speculation and rumor, the part of draft season that makes it so much fun.

Tennessee Titans

Let’s start with the easiest one. The Tennessee Titans have the option to remain where they are and use the pick on Mariota. They need a quarterback, this is probably the best opportunity they’ll get at one, and it would be a mistake to pass it up. If no one comes by with a mindblowing offer, they could stay in place and take Mariota for themselves. On an offense with talented young players like Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter on the outside, with a defense slowly building around solid pieces like Jason McCourty and Jurrell Casey, a quarterback would be enough to push them possibly into playoff contention.

Drafting a young quarterback would make more sense for them than trading for a veteran like Philip Rivers or Jay Cutler. Even if the Titans add a top notch quarterback next year, they have only a small chance of going on a run and making the postseason. If this team is going to compete for a Super Bowl, it will a few years down the road once their pieces have matured and they’ve added some more talent. A veteran can help them now, but Mariota would be more useful when their team is in a real position to compete.

The issue is Ken Whisenhunt. He’s found offensive success at various stages of his career as both an offensive coordinator and a head coach, but it isn’t hard to see a trend in the quarterbacks who have led him to this success. Ben Roethlisberger, Kurt Warner, Philip Rivers. All big armed, mostly stationary, pocket passers. He has a significantly lesser version of that already in Zach Mettenberger, and he may not like Mariota’s fit in his system. I can’t defend this logic, but I can at least understand it. If he’s not a fit, they will look to earn the maximum value from one of the other teams on this list.

Washington Redskins

This is an outside shot, a rumor from a month ago that probably won’t happen. But I included them just because it was interesting to consider the possibilities. After all, three teams last year drafted a quarterback in the first round. The Vikings and the Jaguars had last used first round picks on quarterbacks in 2011, and the Browns had only gone since 2012. The rookie wage scale has lessened the financial blow of missing on a young quarterback, encouraging teams to take more aggressive risks with their picks.

It was only three years ago that the Redskins made a titanic trade to acquire Robert Griffin III, and it was only two years ago that they were certain they had a long term answer under center. Two years of chaos and controversy later, the franchise is an utter mess. Devoid of talent thanks to the picks they surrendered in the trade, they have to try to find some way to rebuild their team around the drama brought on by their owner, their coach, and their current quarterback.

Mariota would be a major improvement over Griffin in one area at least: attitude. Daniel Snyder is the biggest problem in Washington, but Griffin has done his part to contribute to the problems. Someone more low key like Mariota would allow them to ease some of the attention, to build without as much constant scrutiny. This is hardly a reason to select a quarterback, but if they truly believe that Griffin is not their guy, they have to consider everything they gave up to get him as sunk costs.

Washington won’t trade up for Mariota, but they’re the next team that could take him if he somehow slides past the Titans. They could trade out of this slot as well, picking up some extra picks to make up for the ones they’ve lost over the past three years. I wouldn’t count it out, but I feel fairly safe saying that Mariota will not be a Redskin next year.

New York Jets

The Jets have had a very interesting offseason. They had a lot of money to spend, and they went all in on making moves to immediately improve their team. They revamped the secondary that was so wretched last year, signing perhaps the best three cornerbacks on the market. They traded for Brandon Marshall, a player coming off a down season who still has a lot to offer. And, perhaps most significantly, they hired Todd Bowles to lead the team, after a season in which he showed remarkable flexibility and intelligence in piecing together a battered Cardinals defense.

This team could be very good, potentially a playoff contender, if not for Geno Smith. Smith had an extremely good final game of the year, but other than that his 2014 season was a disaster, showing no sign of development and no reason to be optimistic for the future. The Jets have a few small needs across their roster, but quarterback is the only glaring hole, a hole they could possibly fill for the price of their first and second round pick.

For years the Patriots have ruled the AFC East, but there is light appearing on the horizon. The Jets know that the Brady era is nearing its end, and grabbing a franchise quarterback would put them in prime position to leap to the head of the division once that end comes. So far they haven’t been mentioned much as a trade contender, but a late push would make a lot of sense, giving them a piece to help contribute immediately and to build around for the future.

Chicago Bears

This is where the trades get really interesting. Because as fun as it is to deal draft picks back and forth, it is so much better when there is an established player involved. And in this case that player would be a starting caliber quarterback, someone who has already been involved in the most interesting trade involving first round draft picks in the past ten years. The Bears aren’t thrilled to have Jay Cutler (or his contract) on their team, and they would love the opportunity to invest in a newer, younger, cheaper option under center.

Of course, all the reasons the Bears don’t want Cutler are also reasons the Titans wouldn’t want Cutler. He is an established veteran quarterback of the mold that Whisenhunt seems to like, but if that’s what Tennessee is looking for, there is a much better option available. The appealing piece the Bears have is a top ten pick, in case the Titans don’t want to drop down too far in the draft.

The move would make a lot of sense for Chicago if they could get Tennessee to agree to it, but I would still be hesitant to go through with it. Mariota would not make the Bears a playoff team right now. He probably wouldn’t be a significant improvement on Cutler, and he would do absolutely nothing to help their defense. In the meantime it would give them a little more flexibility financially next season, but I think their best option is to stomach Cutler for two more years, build their defense, then try to find a suitable quarterback once they’re in a better position to rebuild.

St Louis Rams

The Rams traded for Nick Foles earlier this offseason, but that doesn’t mean they are satisfied at the quarterback position. Some may believe Foles still offers reasonable potential as a long term starter, but I don’t count myself among them. Foles produced reasonably well in 2013 thanks to some incredible luck, luck that deserted him as expected last year. He will now be going to a worse situation, with less talent around him and a mediocre coaching staff who has shown no ability to put players in a position to succeed. Even if Nick Foles is the starter for the Rams Week One of the 2015 season, I think it’s very likely the same won’t be true in 2016.

The one thing the Rams do have going for them is a decent depth of talent, a result of the picks acquired in the RGIII trade. If anyone can afford to give up a few picks for a single player, it would be the Rams. With the competition also going for Mariota, it will probably cost them Foles and their first two picks to move up with the Titans. They have a roster that could make this deal worthwhile, especially if their other young talent can finally step up. That’s the issue of course. I’ve made no secret of my dislike for Jeff Fisher, as thoroughly mediocre a coach as there is in the NFL. I almost dread the thought of Mariota in St Louis, where his unique talent will be as wasted as Tavon Austin’s.

Cleveland Browns

If the Titans truly believe that Zach Mettenberger is their guy, then no one is in a better position than the Browns. Other teams might be able to trump them by offering veteran quarterbacks (and the Browns could make things very interesting by offering Johnny Manziel), but Cleveland is the only contender for Mariota with two first round picks. They have their own selection, 12^th overall, and Buffalo’s pick, 19^th. These two together would probably be enough to wrest the 2^nd overall pick from Tennessee, provided they aren’t looking for a veteran at quarterback.

There is a lot of reason to be uneasy about this idea. The Browns have used huge amounts of draft capital on quarterbacks over the past three years, taking Brandon Weeden in 2012 and Manziel last year. A third quarterback in four years is a testy proposition, particularly since I’m not ready to give up on Manziel yet. His rookie season went about as badly as it could have gone, but there is still a lot of talent there. They should give him at least another year, install him as the starter from the beginning and let him run the offense before they make up their mind one way or the other.

It would be interesting to put Mariota in Cleveland, though not for anything on the field. On the field the Browns offense is going to be ugly and terrible, no matter who they have under center. But off the field, we would really have an incredible experiment. The failure of Manziel in one of the league’s most tumultuous environments wasn’t surprising. Now we could have the chance to see how the anti-Manziel would fare. Would Mariota remain professional under all circumstances, or would the great beast of Jimmy Haslem and the Cleveland Browns drag Mariota down into their abyss?

San Diego Chargers

This makes too much sense, and right now it seems like the most likely trade scenario. Philip Rivers has only one year left on his contract, and with the talk of the Chargers possibly relocating it seems very possible that he isn’t going to sign an extension. The Titans would seem to be his ideal destination, with his former offensive coordinator Whisenhunt and only a 90 minute drive from his hometown. The Chargers would be able to seamlessly transition from one franchise quarterback to another, the sort of opportunity that usually only presents itself after a couple down years.

I certainly agree that it makes sense for San Diego. The Chargers made the playoffs in 2013 and fell just short in 2014, but that oversells the talent available on this team. Their offensive line is bad, their running game is bad, and their defense needs help everywhere except the secondary. Even if they can get Rivers to stay around for another two or three years, they probably won’t be in position to win a Super Bowl. Rebuilding seems like a reasonable course, and Mariota would be the perfect piece to jumpstart that process.

It makes less sense for Tennessee, for all the reasons I listed above. Rivers is a very good quarterback, but he probably has three or four years at most left. This might overlap with the window created by the developing players on the Titans, but in the long term I think they would be better off going with a younger quarterback, someone who can be their future rather than their present.

Philadelphia Eagles

Yes, they traded for Sam Bradford. Yes, they resigned Mark Sanchez. Yes, they added Tim Tebow. But I’m not convinced yet that they’ve given up on getting Mariota. The Oregon connection is obvious, but even if it wasn’t, it would still be hard to ignore that Mariota is the perfect quarterback for Chip Kelly’s system. If you want to see the Eagles succeed, you should hope they get Mariota. If you want to see Mariota succeed, you should hope he goes to Philadelphia.

The problem is, the Eagles lag behind most of the other teams in contention for Mariota in terms of pieces they have to offer. They have only a single first round pick, the worst of all the teams I’ve listed. They have Bradford, but he is a significantly less valuable asset than both Cutler and Rivers. To get up to the second pick they would likely have to offer this year’s and next year’s first round pick, as well as possibly another couple mid round picks.

The only realistic scenario I see for the Eagles getting Mariota would involve a three team trade. They would move Bradford to a team like the Browns for an extra first round pick, which they would then package with their own pick to Tennessee. The details of this are very complicated, and ultimately I think it won’t work out. But if it did, the addition of Mariota could make the Eagles a Super Bowl contender. Or it could drop them to the bottom of the league. Right now with Philadelphia, anything is possible.

2015 Pass Rusher Prospects

The importance of pressuring the quarterback has always been obvious, but it has become increasingly valuable in recent years. A strong pass rush can single handedly elevate a mediocre defense (Detroit and Miami, for example), just as a mediocre pass rush can sink an otherwise talented unit (Cincinnati, Tampa Bay). There are a lot of talented pass rushers available in this year’s draft, with potentially eight worthy of going in the first round. Of these, there is a clear gap between the top four and the second tier. Four potential superstars are available, with a bevy of quality starters available for those who miss out.

Dante Fowler – Florida

Fowler is the best and the most versatile defensive player in this draft. He is capable of playing multiple positions in multiple schemes, and we know this because during his time at Florida we saw him play multiple positions in multiple schemes. No one moved around as much as Fowler did. He lined up in a down position on the edge, in a two point stance off the ball, even occasionally as a nose tackle in passing situations. Whatever defense a team runs, they can find a place for Fowler to do his thing.

Fowler’s game is predicated on explosiveness. He is quick off the ball out of either a two or a three point stance, able to blow around the corner or shoot through a gap before opposing linemen can get out of their stances. He has the size and the strength to ignore blockers once he has an angle towards the quarterback. At times he can play a bit too out of control in the backfield, missing opportunities to increase his rather pedestrian sack totals. But even when he doesn’t bring the quarterback down he is wreaking havoc in the backfield, and it should be a relatively easy fix to bring him to consistent double digit sack production.

The biggest criticism that can be levied against Fowler is with his hands. He doesn’t create good extension with his arms, and he ends up wasting a lot of energy grappling in and around a blocker’s chest. At times he gets absolutely stonewalled when he can’t win on the initial burst. But at others he shows flashes of potential with secondary moves. He can spin back inside, he can swim over the top, and he can throw linemen to the side to open up a lane to the quarterback.

Fowler is a developmental prospect in a lot of ways, but he’s good enough that he can contribute right now at a number of positions. His ceiling is as a perennial All Pro player, provided he can develop more consistency with his secondary moves and improve in holding his ground against the run. A player of his talent shouldn’t fall outside of the top five, and right now I’d find it difficult to put any non-quarterback position above him.

Randy Gregory – Nebraska

A long and lanky edge rusher, Gregory offers a very appetizing combination of athletic ability and pass rushing polish. He spent only two years playing major college football after transferring from a junior college, but during those two years he was one of the best pass rushers in the nation. He has excellent speed around the edge, but what really puts him over the top is the variety and skill he brings to the game despite his lack of high level experience.

The biggest concern about Gregory is his size. He weighed only 235 pounds at the combine despite standing 6’5” tall. He is incredibly lanky, and it is easy to imagine him being pushed around by linemen who outweigh him by nearly a hundred pounds. The strange thing is, that doesn’t seem to happen on film. He boasts surprising strength, makes excellent use of leverage, and has one of the best bull rushes of any pass rusher in the draft. He may be only 235 pounds and he may have only managed 24 reps in the bench press, but his functional size and strength greatly outpaces these numbers

The secret to Gregory’s success is his handwork. He always leads with his hands, striking a lineman beneath his shoulders and bending him backwards to create separation with his long arms. It’s a rare college prospect who can create this kind of separation, and an even rarer one who can make use of it like Gregory does. He can drive a lineman backwards into the quarterback. He can rip his way past either to the inside or the outside. He can do essentially anything he wants with the lineman in front of him once his hands are engaged, making him a dangerous rusher even after his initial rush fails.

There are a few things he needs to clean up at the next level. He sometimes gives up too quickly on the play, and he needs to learn to be more aggressive. He is merely average against the run when his skill with his hands should make him much more. He’ll gain these skills over time, but until then he’ll be able to contribute as a starter from the moment he enters the league.

Vic Beasley – Clemson

Beasley is the traditional edge rusher, light and explosive and impossibly quick around the edge. Concerns over his size were eased somewhat at the combine where he weighed in at 246 pounds, then eased even further when he torched the speed, strength, and agility tests. He ran a 4.53 forty yard dash, jumped 41 inches in the vertical, and put up 35 reps in the bench press. His stock has risen throughout the draft process, to the point where he is now being considered a top three pick.

Most of Beasley’s sacks are earned at the snap of the ball. He is incredibly quick into the backfield, especially when he starts with his hand in the dirt. He can penetrate on the inside or race around the edge, and it is a rare tackle with the footwork sharp enough to handle him. At times he plays smaller than he weighs, getting pushed off his rushing lane and giving the quarterback too much room to maneuver in the pocket. But he does a good job preventing this by evading a blocker’s hands, keeping low to get into the lineman’s chest and swatting himself free with his own arms.

Beasley’s strength was impressive at the combine, but it doesn’t always translate to the field. He gets pushed around too easily in the running game, and he really only contributes on that side of the ball when he can penetrate and disrupt the play in the backfield. He needs to get better at setting an edge and preventing himself from being sealed off.

The same strength would benefit him as a pass rusher, allowing him to create more separation with his arms to transition into secondary moves. His lateral quickness is phenomenal, but he very rarely beats a blocker once they are engaged, with one notable exception. His spin move is absolutely devastating, far and away the best individual move of any pass rusher in the draft. It is something to build on, but he will need to develop a more complex game going forward. His speed makes him a top ten pick, but a lack of versatility holds him behind the other rushers.

Shane Ray – Missouri

I am including Ray in the top tier of pass rushers, but I think it’s safe to say he’s got a firm grip on the bottom spot of the four. His athleticism is a clear level below the other three, and his technique is still too raw to make up that difference. For that reason perception of him has fallen over the past few weeks, slipping him to the late first round in some projections.

Ray’s athletic numbers are concerning, but he looks more than functional on the field. He gets off the ball extremely well, and he displays excellent lateral quickness when he makes cuts back to the inside. His strength is a minor concern, and he can get knocked off his route when a blocker gets his hands on him. But he does a good job avoiding these hands, staying low and playing at a sharp angle to cut under a taller tackle’s arms.

He is still very dangerous around the edge, but his shortcomings show up in other areas. He can create separation with his arms like Gregory, but he doesn’t have the strength to turn this leverage into power. Linemen anchor against him, and there is very little he can do to knock them back or to disengage. His hands don’t offer him much help, and once his first move fails he relies almost solely on tenacity to get to the quarterback.

Ray’s upside is more limited than the other top prospects, but he could still turn into a top quality pass rusher in the NFL. His lack of athleticism may prevent him from being a linebacker, but for a pure 4-3 team he will make an excellent starting defensive end for years to come. If the other three are off the board, I don’t think it would be a reach for a team to take him in the top ten, provided his limited versatility fits what they are looking for in a pass rusher.

Owa Odighizuwa – UCLA

 

There is a significant dropoff after the top four pass rushers in the draft. The next four players have some combination of athletic ability and technical skill, but none blend the two like the premier talents in the class. Odighizuwa falls into the former category, a physical marvel who lacks the skills to be a consistently dominant pass rusher. Despite his athletic ability his upside is limited, but he does enough well at this point that I have him ranked as the best of the second tier.

A lack of versatility hurts Odighizuwa from the start. At 267 pounds he is too large to play linebacker and too small to play defensive end in the 3-4. He might be able to bulk up some, but I think he is probably limited to teams that either run a consistent 4-3 or use a lot of hybrid looks. As a defensive end, he can bounce around several places on the line, but he doesn’t have the strength to hold up in the interior outside of occasional passing circumstances.

Odighizuwa’s greatest assets are his hands. He initiates contact with the lineman in front of him, using his long and strong arms to create separation and gain control. He isn’t able to do much from there to beat his man, but he does a good job reading the play and shedding when the ball comes his way. This makes him an excellent run defender (easily the best of the eight players on this list) but it limits his ability to contribute as a pass rusher. His combine numbers were excellent, but this speed doesn’t translate onto the field. He won’t be beating any offensive tackles around the corner, and when he does collect sacks it is usually due to coverage and tenacity.

There is potential for Odighizuwa to develop a more complete pass rushing game down the road, but he strikes me as the sort of player who will always be limited. That doesn’t mean he can’t be useful however. The best situation would be as a secondary option on a team with an established pass rusher opposite him, someone to take the pressure off so he can focus on the run while collecting a sack here or there. He will never accumulate large sack numbers, but he’s still worth a late first round pick.

Nate Orchard – Utah

Orchard is far and away the least athletic of the eight edge rushers I broke down. He was below average at the combine in nearly every metric, reinforcing the questionable athleticism he showed on the field. He isn’t particularly quick in tight spaces, he doesn’t have much burst going up the field, and his strength leaves quite a bit to be desired. But he is a technical expert as a pass rusher, particularly with his hands, and he offers enough that he’s probably worth looking at late in the first round.

Like Odighizuwa, Orchard offers limited versatility. He might be able to play as a 3-4 outside linebacker, but his size and lack of speed will likely cause problems anywhere other than a 4-3 defensive end. Also like Odighizuwa, Orchard doesn’t contribute much as a speed rusher around the edge. He’s strong enough that he is difficult to knock off his path when he does try to turn the corner, but no NFL tackle is going to have an issue staying square in front of him.

Orchard’s success as a pass rusher comes after the initial burst. He strikes quick and hard with his hands, gaining control of the blocker across from him and using that control to pull off a wide variety of moves. He can toss a lineman away to open up a lane, he can break back inside to get to the quarterback, or he can simply walk the tackle backwards until an opportunity presents itself. Orchard’s pure strength isn’t particularly impressive, but his use of leverage and handfighting gives him the ability to overpower linemen as a pass rusher.

He isn’t as good against the run as he probably should be. He doesn’t disengage as well when he reads run, and linemen attacking downhill can usually shove him backwards. He will need to get better as a run defender if he’s going to find long term success in the NFL, since he doesn’t have the physical gifts to be a pure pass rusher. Orchard will be a starter down the road in a very similar role to Odighizuwa, but I have to knock him lower on my board due to his lack of athletic upside.

Bud Dupree – Kentucky

Dupree is the official athletic freak of this year’s class. You simply cannot find players that combine his size, speed, and explosiveness. Despite weighing 269 pounds, he has all the speed he could need to play linebacker in the NFL. He is far more versatile than any of the other players in the second tier, a fit for any coaches and any scheme. It’s difficult not to fall in love with what he did at the combine, where he somehow pulled off a 4.56 40 yard dash, a 11’6” broad jump, and a 42 inch vertical. Dupree just oozes potential, the sort that has some people talking about him as a top ten pick.

His combine numbers suggest a player who is dangerously explosive, and his film backs that up. He shoots off the line with tremendous burst, creating lanes towards the quarterback based on his initial getoff. He can race around the edge or shoot through the middle, and he is often completely untouched as he goes after the quarterback. Even when someone does get a hand on him, he has the strength to turn the corner and speed to close in on the ball.

Dupree can create opportunities for himself off the snap of the ball, but he doesn’t do much if his initial burst fails to give him an edge. He has the strength required to free himself with his hands, but he doesn’t make use of them often enough to consider this a true asset of his game. His lateral quickness leaves a lot to be desired, and once he’s engaged the play is essentially over for him.

Dupree collected sacks in large numbers in college, but this production overrates his pass rushing abilities. Many of his big plays came when he was totally unblocked due to well designed blitzes that confused the opposing offensive line. He does deserve some credit for this, timing his rush perfectly to find the gaps and closing in on the quarterback before he can react. In the NFL smart coaches will know how to use him as they develop more complex pass rushing moves. I could see him in a very similar role to the one Anthony Barr found with the Vikings last year, playing off the ball but spending a lot of time blitzing through the A gap. Dupree has a lot of ability, and he could end up being the best pass rusher from his class. But I have to disagree with the people who have him ranked as one of the top ten players. He is still on the second tier, even if he is the most intriguing option among this group.

Eli Harold – Virginia

Harold’s game is all about quickness. Quickness off the ball, quickness up the field, quickness cutting back to the inside. He doesn’t need much of an angle to burst past an offensive lineman to get to the quarterback, and his explosion off the ball is usually enough to give him this advantage.

He’s better coming out of a three point stance than standing up, but he has the athleticism necessary to transition to linebacker in the NFL, even though it will be a steep learning curve. He has no experience in pass coverage, and he doesn’t track the ball particularly well through a crowd. He’d probably be best with a team that will use him as a pass rusher only at first, a defensive end going by the name of linebacker where he can use his speed to chase around the edge or shoot through an interior gap.

Speed is Harold’s most attractive asset, largely because it’s the only one he brings to the table. When he can’t find an angle past a lineman, there’s really nothing he can do. He doesn’t use his hands at all, and blockers have no trouble staying latched onto him once they’re engaged. He has no secondary moves, and he doesn’t have the strength to pull off any sort of bull rush. In the running game he is almost nonexistent, failing to set an edge and consistently being driven backwards from the line.

Harold is quick, but the NFL is full of quick pass rushers. More importantly, the NFL is full of offensive linemen who know how to handle quick pass rushers. Until he can add strength and develop some polish to his game, Harold will be consigned to a role as a situational pass rusher. He might be able to grab five sacks a year with what he has right now, and the team that drafts him just has to hope they can get something more out of him down the road. The risk is high enough that I wouldn’t take him in the first round.