First Round Recap

 

Last night was every bit as exciting as I could have possibly anticipated. The first two picks went precisely as planned, but everything after that dissolved into chaos, from Bortles going to the Jaguars, to the Bills trading up for Watkins, to Manziel’s slide down the board, all ending with the Vikings leaping up to grab Bridgewater with the final pick of the first round. It was utter unscripted chaos, and I feel proud that I managed to nail seven of the thirty-two picks with my mock draft.

Below are my reactions to each pick, mostly written up as I was watching the draft. I’ve already covered the players in detail—offensive, defensive, and quarterbacks—so I’ll instead focus on how each selection fits into his new team.

1)      Houston Texans – Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina

No surprises here. Clowney is the best player in the draft, and the Texans made him the first pick. Ultimately their only other option would have been to trade the selection, but when no one made a worthwhile offer they decided just to take advantage of this opportunity to add a rare talent. It will be interesting to see how they integrate him into their defense, but it will also be a lot of fun. With JJ Watt and Clowney they have the most physically impressive defensive front in the NFL. They will have to find a way to make their defense work with two extremely talented players best suited for different schemes, but this is a fantastic problem for any defensive coordinator to have.

2)      St Louis Rams – Greg Robinson, OL, Auburn

I’ve made my thoughts perfectly clear on Greg Robinson. I like my offensive linemen to be able to pass block, and Robinson simply cannot do that as a tackle in the NFL. It’s already being reported that the Rams plan to begin with him at guard, which at least means that he won’t get Bradford killed on a regular basis. Maybe he can develop into a reliable tackle down the road, but he will do very little to help them win now, which is important for a coaching staff and front office who are fighting for their jobs this season.

3)      Jacksonville Jaguars – Blake Bortles, QB, UCF

Well, that came out of nowhere. I thought this pick was down to Mack or Watkins. I expected that the Jaguars would wait and get their quarterback in the second round. I’m still not certain this is a great idea, but at least Bortles won’t be under pressure to win immediately. He needs time to develop, and in Jacksonville he will be given more leeway than anywhere else. I think he has a decent chance to develop into a very good starting quarterback, but there is also a decent chance that the Jaguars may need to pick a quarterback again three years from now.

4)      Buffalo Bills – Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson

The Bills needed to get EJ Manuel some help on offense, and they decided to get him the best help in the draft. Watkins is a great addition, and he will immediately bring explosiveness to the perimeter of their offense that they lacked last season. The only problem I have with this is the cost of moving up this far. It is almost always a mistake to give up a future first round selection, and based on the history and roster of the Bills I expect that the Browns just obtained a top fifteen selection next year.

5)      Oakland Raiders – Khalil Mack, OLB, Buffalo

The Raiders tried desperately to trade this pick, but they didn’t get an offer they felt was worthwhile. I’m surprised no one was willing to give up a future first round pick for Mack, but since no one did this was a no brainer decision for the Raiders. Mack was the best player available, even though he plays the one position that seems relatively set in Oakland. They signed Lamarr Woodley and Justin Tuck in free agency, and I really like last year’s third round pick Sio Moore as an outside linebacker. But I can’t fault them for taking one of the four best players in the draft when he fell to them.

6)      Atlanta Falcons – Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M

This is another predictable pick. Matthews is the best player left on the board, and he fits a clear need on the Falcons team. He is the most complete offensive lineman in the draft, and he can step in at either tackle this season. Matt Ryan doesn’t have great escapability, and his sack numbers have increased every year he’s been in the league. They need to protect the face of their franchise, and they drafted a player who can help them do that.

7)      Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M

I don’t have a lot to say about this pick. It was expected, and it fills a major need on Tampa Bay’s offense. With the tall and athletic duo of Evans and Vincent Jackson, Josh McCown has a reasonable facsimile of the offense he found so much success with last year in Chicago. You can protest that they should have done more to diversify the skillsets of their wide receivers, but it’s hard to fault them for taking a playmaker with the upside of Evans.

8)      Cleveland Browns – Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State

I’m not a big fan of Gilbert. In my mind I lump him with Greg Robinson as the most overrated player in the draft. He is big and athletic, but his coverage abilities are lacking. He plays the ball well when it’s in the air but doesn’t make sharp breaks on underneath routes. He doesn’t get his hips turned well and can be beaten over the top. He made up for his mistakes in college thanks to his length and his speed, but against NFL receivers and quarterbacks I expect him to be routinely burned.

9)      Minnesota Vikings – Anthony Barr, OLB, UCLA

I’m not sure how the Vikings will fit Barr into their scheme, but there wasn’t a player worth taking here who really fits their needs, so I have no problem with them taking Barr. They have invested a lot into the four players on their defensive line, and if Barr is going to get much playing time he will have to play as a full time linebacker. Mike Zimmer’s defensive scheme doesn’t call for a lot of blitzing, but I have to imagine that will change if they install Barr at linebacker. It will be fun to watch how they use him and Everson Griffen, two freak athletes on the outside.

10)  Detroit Lions – Eric Ebron, TE, North Carolina

This is another one that caught me off guard. The Lions retained disappointing first round pick Brandon Pettigrew this offseason, so it is a bit surprising that they would spend a top ten pick on a tight end. They should be able to make it work though, as Ebron and Pettigrew play very different styles. Pettigrew is a good blocker with stones for hands, while Ebron is one of the most gifted receivers in the draft. I don’t exactly have faith that their coaches will use them correctly, but it certainly can be done.

11)  Tennessee Titans – Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan

I didn’t see this pick coming, but I really like it. Lewan is the best pass blocker in the draft, and he is great value at number eleven. The only problem I have with this selection is that the Titans really don’t need an offensive lineman. They invested a top ten pick in Chance Warmack last year, and they have given out big free agent contracts to Michael Oher and Andy Levitre over the past two years. Lewan likely won’t get a chance to play until starting left tackle Michael Roos leaves as a free agent after the season. But the Titans franchise has always been built around a strong offensive line, and I still believe Lewan will be a great player long term.

12)  New York Giants – Odell Beckham, WR, LSU

I don’t like Odell Beckham, and I really don’t like him to the Giants. They already have a player who can do everything he does in Reuben Randle. There is no justification for taking a player in the top twelve who tops out as only a number two receiver, especially in a draft where a number two receiver can be found in the second or third round. They absolutely should have taken Aaron Donald, and if they were committed to the idea of a wide receiver they should have gone with the higher upside of Brandin Cooks or Marqise Lee.

13)  St Louis Rams – Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh

My God, the Rams have a terrifying defensive line. In addition to the best pair of defensive ends in the league, third year player Michael Brockers has developed into a very good player on the interior. But it is possible that Donald could be the best of all of them. He was the best defensive player in college football last year, he dominated the Senior Bowl, and he tore apart the NFL Combine. He should have gone in the top ten, and my only complaint about this selection is that the Rams have invested so much in one unit while leaving holes across the rest of their roster.

14)  Chicago Bears – Kyle Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech

Fuller isn’t quite as long as Justin Gilbert, but in every other way they are very similar players physically. The difference is that Fuller is excellent in coverage in addition to being an elite athlete. He played a great deal of both zone and man coverage in college, and he is as ready to play in the NFL as any cornerback in this draft. It will be interesting to see how the Bears manage a secondary with Jennings, Tillman, and Fuller, but having three quality cornerbacks is never a concern. If they really think Fuller can step into a starting role, they can move the aging Tillman to fill one of their holes at safety.

15)  Pittsburgh Steelers – Ryan Shazier, LB, Ohio State

This is a reach for Shazier. He is very talented, with stunning speed for a player his size. But he struggles playing through congested areas, and he might not be suited to play inside linebacker in a 3-4 defense. But I have to trust the coaches of the Steelers, especially with the success they had drafting a similar player in Lawrence Timmons in 2007. Shazier is a similar size to Timmons but even faster, and long term he may fill in at the weak side spot while Timmons adds bulk and moves over to the strong side.

16)  Dallas Cowboys – Zach Martin, OL, Notre Dame

To the credit of the Cowboys, they didn’t select Manziel. But they still don’t have anything on defense! Offensive line is not a major hole for them, not considering how devoid of talent their defense is. They could have taken either of the safeties. They could have taken a defensive lineman or a cornerback or somebody who would give them some hope of stopping an opposing offense. Martin has the potential to be a good tackle or a very good guard, but I have to feel sorry for anyone stuck in the toxic situation that is the Cowboys.

17)  Baltimore Ravens – CJ Mosely, ILB, Alabama

Daryl Smith filled in well at the middle linebacker position last year, but long term Mosely can be a replacement to Ray Lewis, someone to build around as the anchor of their defense. Mosely will stuff up teams that try to run into the heart of their defense, which was a surprising weakness for them last season. He won’t be able to cover ground sideline to sideline in the way Lewis did at the beginning of his career, but he can be as effective as an interior pillar as Lewis was during their most recent Super Bowl run.

18)  New York Jets – Calvin Pryor, S, Louisville

It was always a toss up over which of the top two safeties would go off the board first. The Jets end up deciding that they want the playmaker Pryor over the more reliable Clinton-Dix. Pryor plays much faster on the field than he ran in the Combine, and he can make plays at any level of the defense. The Jets have needs on offense, but they could also use a playmaker in their secondary. It isn’t surprising that Rex Ryan chose to go with a defensive player, as the Jets have gone defense with their last five first round picks.

19)  Miami Dolphins – Ja’Wuan James, OT, Tennessee

Okay, I’ll be completely honest. I had not heard of James when this pick was made. But I have since gone through and watched tape of him from last season, and I saw a player who left me very conflicted. He has outstanding size and physical tools but he struggles with technique. He catches rather than attacks during his pass sets, and he has poor footwork that regularly knocks him off balance. This is a reach at number nineteen, but I can understand why the Dolphins did it. They need immediate improvement on the offensive line, specifically at the right tackle position. The other top tackles in the draft all played on the left side in college, and it will be less adjustment for James, as he played right tackle at Tennessee. This isn’t to say that I agree with the pick—they should have gone with Morgan Moses if they wanted an offensive lineman—but it isn’t as poor a choice as I initially thought.

20)  New Orleans Saints – Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon State

I want to take some credit for this one. I had Cooks going to the Saints in my mock draft, though I had them waiting until number twenty-seven to get him. Instead they decided to move up seven spots, sacrificing a third round pick to guarantee that they would be able to draft the player they wanted. Cooks can fill in for the departed Darren Sproles and give Drew Brees the deep threat he’s lacked over the past couple years. He is the sort of player who can immediately contribute on a team competing for a Super Bowl. A third round pick is a reasonable price to pay, especially for a team that has already paid so much this offseason.

21)  Green Bay Packers – Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama

A very good player falls to the Packers, and he happens to fill their most pressing need on defense. A safety over the top will help prevent big plays and give their pass rush more opportunity to get after the quarterback. Clinton-Dix is also capable of dropping into the box and playing in a linebacker role, which will shore up the run defense that has struggled occasionally over the past couple years. The only thing Clinton-Dix lacks is elite speed, and the Packers may have preferred the chance to select Pryor over him. But they took the player who fell into their lap, and I doubt they will regret this selection.

22)  Cleveland Browns – Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M

I really like what the Browns did with their second pick. Manziel is extremely talented with incredible upside, and I wouldn’t have been upset if they had taken him with the fourth overall selection. Getting him at twenty-two is a steal, even though it cost them a third round pick to move up four spots. Manziel could be a bust like the last two quarterbacks they took with the twenty-second pick (Quinn in 2007 and Weeden in 2012, because the world is funny sometimes) but if he finds the same success in the NFL as he did in college he could turn Cleveland into a contender within the next year or two.

23)  Kansas City Chiefs – Dee Ford, OLB, Auburn

This doesn’t make a lot of sense. This is a bit of a reach for Ford, by a team that doesn’t need someone of his skills. He fits well into their 3-4 scheme as an outside linebacker, but they are set at that position with Tamba Hali and Justin Houston. Hali’s contract makes it reasonable to part ways with him after this season, but Ford probably won’t have much chance to contribute during his rookie year. I don’t like this pick for a team that has immediate needs on both lines and at wide receiver.

24)  Cincinnati Bengals – Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State

I laid out my reasons for Dennard to Cincinnati when I projected him here in my mock draft (shameless brag alert!) but I’ll repeat them here. The two positions of real uncertainty for Cincinnati are on their defensive line and in their secondary, but they have a strong track record of finding defensive linemen in later rounds. Dennard fell in the draft because he lacks the athleticism of the other cornerbacks, but he will bring stability to a secondary in the midst of a transition. If the Bengals can find a way to develop Dre Kirkpatrick, they could have the best pair of cornerbacks in the league.

25)  San Diego Chargers – Jason Verrett, CB, TCU

I had San Diego going with Bradley Roby here, and I still believe that he is a more talented player than Verrett. But various concerns scared them away from Roby, and they decided to go with the cornerback who is more stable both on and off the field. Verrett is smaller than the other cornerbacks in the first round, and he may be best suited to play in the slot long term. But San Diego is so bare in their defensive backfield that there is a very good chance that he starts from day one on the outside of the field.

26)  Philadelphia Eagles – Marcus Smith, OLB, Louisville

Philadelphia has a number of options at the outside linebacker position, but none of them are very good. Trent Cole is over the hill, Connor Barwin was a bust as a free agent signing, and Brandon Graham isn’t a great fit for their system. I saw Smith projected mostly as a second round pick prior to the draft and didn’t watch any tape of him until tonight, but from what I’ve seen I wouldn’t consider this selection a reach. He has tremendous explosion off the ball, and if he can develop better technique with his hands he could become a disruptive pass rusher. Philadelphia’s depth at the position will allow them to rotate him in and out of their defense as he develops his abilities.

27)  Arizona Cardinals – Deone Bucannon, S, Washington State

Bucannon is a cover first safety who can play in a deep zone or matched up man to man with a slot receiver, and he fits well with Arizona’s defensive personnel. Last year’s third round pick Tyrann Mathieu is a playmaker who flies across the field, but he was consistently exposed when he was put into coverage against a quick receiver or a large tight end. Bucannon can fill this hole in their defense, but he has enough flaws that I think this was too high for him to be taken. He rarely becomes involved in the running game, and when he does he usually either misses the tackle or is wiped out by a blocker. Safety isn’t a desperate need for the Cardinals, and they should have just taken the best player available.

28)  Carolina Panthers – Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Florida State

Carolina is facing major holes at cornerback and offensive tackle, but they decided to address their equally pressing need at wide receiver. With Jericho Cotchery and Jason Avant as their top two receivers they will need Benjamin to contribute immediately, which isn’t the ideal circumstance for him. He has a lot he needs to work on, specifically route running and avoiding drops. He will give them a weapon down the field who can win contested balls, but if they wanted someone to be their number one receiver immediately they should have taken Marqise Lee.

29)  New England Patriots – Dominique Easley, DL, Florida

Easley is one of the most talented players in the draft, and he should be a disruptive force for the Patriots. He can play anywhere on the defensive line, though he will likely spend most of his time as a penetrating under tackle. Some people thought he was among the top ten players in the draft in terms of raw talent, and while I think that is a bit of an overstatement I would consider him worthy of a higher pick than this. But everything I just said comes with a major caveat: if he can stay healthy. Easley tore both his ACLs in college, and there is no guarantee that he won’t suffer similar injuries during his NFL career. This could either be a major steal or a major bust. I don’t see much middle ground.

30)  San Francisco 49ers – Jimmie Ward, S, Northern Illinois

At first glance it doesn’t appear that San Francisco needs a safety. Eric Reid is coming off a stellar rookie season, and they signed Antoine Bethea to a four year free agent contract. But they have already said that they plan to use Ward as a nickel cornerback during his rookie season, likely to cover the slot as he did during much of his time in college. This isn’t a pressing need, but San Francisco doesn’t have many pressing needs. This is a team that is well stocked with talent, and they can probably afford a luxury pick.

31)  Denver Broncos – Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio State

I am a big fan of Roby, despite his struggles over the past year. He is capable of more flash plays than any other cornerback in the draft. He makes remarkably sharp breaks on the ball and will add a playmaking element to the Broncos defense. Down the line they might be able to coach him into a consistent cornerback, but for this year they will have to accept the occasional big play over his head. They certainly have an offense that can endure and respond to such big plays.

32)  Minnesota Vikings – Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville

I’m going to pound my chest here for a few sentences. I was certain that Bridgewater wouldn’t make it out of the first round. I all but guaranteed that some team would trade up to grab him before the run of quarterbacks began the second round. The presence of a fifth year option in the contracts of first round selections only makes it more tantalizing to hop a few picks to grab a quarterback.

The one thing I didn’t expect: that this trade would be made by the Vikings. I was floored when I saw that they were on the clock, and I still believed that they were going to draft Derek Carr up until I heard the second syllable of Bridgewater’s first name. At that point I leapt into the air in celebration, spilling my computer off my lap onto the floor, and shrieked in a higher register than I ever realized my voice could reach. When I discussed the selection of Khalil Mack above, I called Mack “one of the four best players in the draft.” In my mind those four players are Mack, Clowney, Watkins, and Bridgewater. I think that Bridgewater should start from day one for the Vikings, and I believe that with him under center they will field a team that can compete for a playoff spot this year.

Mock Draft Version Two: Cruel Reality

As promised, here is my second mock draft. Yesterday I covered what would happen if I was put in charge of the draft for every team, but unfortunately I do not (yet) have any authority whatsoever for any of these teams. So today I’m posting what I think will actually happen. I can’t guarantee that any of these picks will be right, but I also can’t guarantee that any of these picks will be wrong.

1) Houston Texans – Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina

With each passing day it looks more likely that Houston will take Clowney if they choose not to trade the top pick. Even though they need a quarterback, I can’t fault them for selecting the best player available in the draft. It will be interesting to see how they integrate Clowney into their defense, as he really isn’t suited to play outside linebacker in a 3-4. If they can find a way to integrate his skillset with JJ Watt’s, they will have the best defensive front in the NFL for years to come.

2) St Louis Rams – Greg Robinson, OL, Auburn

In 2009 the Rams used the second overall pick to select Jason Smith, an offensive tackle who lacked polish but dripped athletic potential. Five years later Smith has already washed out of the league, and the Rams seem ready to repeat this mistake with Robinson. I’ve heard rumors of late that they could be interested in Khalil Mack or Sammy Watkins, but I expect them to go with the player they have been linked to all along. They don’t seem to care that Robinson is utterly incapable of pass blocking and that there is almost no chance of him contributing in the next two seasons as anything other than a guard.

3) Jacksonville Jaguars – Khalil Mack, OLB, Buffalo

I am fairly confident about the first two picks, but this is where the draft could go several different ways. The least likely possibility I see is a quarterback, but there is a chance that the Jaguars could decide to build their future around Blake Bortles. They have also suggested that Justin Blackmon may not be able to play next season, indicating that they would consider taking Watkins. But I think Mack is the most likely selection. He perfectly fits the OLB/DE hybrid in Jacksonville’s scheme, and coach Gus Bradley will want to start by building up his defense.

4) Cleveland Browns – Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson

The Browns have been repeatedly linked to Johnny Manziel, and either he or Bortles is a possibility here. They could also go with an offensive lineman, but I think they will decide to just grab the best player remaining on the board. Josh Gordon was phenomenal last season, but he has off the field concerns that could lead to trouble down the road. Cleveland was actually willing to trade him for a second round pick early last season, and if they draft Watkins they will have more freedom to consider parting ways with him if he continues to be a problem.

5) Oakland Raiders – Derek Carr, QB, Fresno State

This is the first pick where I am truly going out on a limb. Opinions on Carr vary widely across the league, but everything I’ve read suggests that the Raiders (along with several other teams) believe he is the best quarterback in the draft. Oakland will probably try to trade down into the teens to get him for a better value, but if they can’t I wouldn’t be surprised if they decided to reach for him at number five. He won’t fall to them in the second round, and he may not even slide far enough for them to trade back up into the first round to get him. If he is the quarterback they want, they will take him with this pick.

6) Atlanta Falcons – Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M

Atlanta needs a pass rusher or a pass protector. The top two pass rushers are off the board, so they will go with an offensive lineman. Matthews is the most complete lineman in this draft, and he has experience at both tackle positions. Sam Baker will be returning from injury this season, and Atlanta may still consider him their best option at left tackle. If that is the case, they would be wise to choose the more versatile Matthews over Taylor Lewan, who is a better pass blocker but never played right tackle in his college career.

7) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M

I don’t buy the reports that Tampa Bay is interested in Johnny Manziel. They just gave Josh McCown starting quarterback money, and they still have some reason to have interest in Mike Glennon. They won’t be taking a quarterback with this pick. Lewan is still on the board and they could address one of their holes on the offensive line, but I agree with most of the projections that have them taking Evans. During his last year in Chicago Lovie Smith brought in Alshon Jeffery to complement Brandon Marshall. Adding Evans to Vincent Jackson would give Tampa Bay a similar combination of large, physical wide receivers.

8) Minnesota Vikings – Blake Bortles, QB, UCF

Following the drops of Manziel and Bridgewater, it looks like Bortles is going on a mini-slide of his own. He probably won’t get past Minnesota, but it is looking increasingly likely that he will fall this far. I still think the Vikings would be better off selecting either Bridgewater or Manziel, and I am still very concerned with Bortles’s inconsistent mechanics and accuracy. But he is probably best suited of all the quarterbacks to play in Norv Turner’s down the field passing attack. There is a slim possibility that the Vikings could choose to wait to get a quarterback in the second round and select either Anthony Barr or Aaron Donald to bolster their defensive front. But I think that Bortles’s upside is too much for them to pass up.

9) Buffalo Bills – Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan

Buffalo invested a first round pick in EJ Manuel last year, and now they need to give him some better pieces to work with. One option would be an elite receiving tight end in Eric Ebron, but they will choose to invest in their offensive line instead. Manuel had a lot of trouble staying healthy last season, and there is no player in the draft better than Lewan at keeping a quarterback clean. With him on the left side and Cordy Glenn moved back to the right they will have an elite pair of tackles to protect their young quarterback.

10) Detroit Lions – Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State

If the top nine picks work out as I’ve projected (which they won’t) Detroit will desperately want to trade out of this pick. They are in ideal position to grab a cornerback, but they don’t believe they are facing a major need at that position. In this they are mistaken, but if given the opportunity they will try to slide back to get into position to select a wide receiver. If they are forced to stay at number ten they may reach for someone like Odell Beckham, but I expect that they will decide to take a player of higher value and go after Gilbert, who most consider the top cornerback in the draft.

11) Tennessee Titans – Anthony Barr, OLB, UCLA

Tennessee is transitioning to a 3-4 scheme and is in desperate need of an edge pass rusher. This makes them a perfect fit for Anthony Barr. It will take some time for Barr to develop, but they will need a few more years to fill out their defense no matter who they choose. The front line combination of Barr and Jurrell Casey will give them a legitimate interior-exterior pass rushing combination. Add a few more pieces at linebacker and safety and this could turn into an extremely dangerous defense two or three years down the road.

12) New York Giants – Eric Ebron, TE, North Carolina

Eli Manning has always been at his best when he has a large target to throw to. Whether that target was Plaxico Burress or Hakeem Nicks, the Giants offense has always flowed most smoothly when Eli has a safety valve in the form of a large, physical receiver. They lost Nicks to free agency this offseason, and if Ebron falls past Buffalo they will jump at the opportunity to add him to their offense. The holes in their defense are difficult to overlook, but as long as they are committed to Manning at quarterback they will need to surround him with weapons.

13) St Louis Rams – Calvin Pryor, S, Louisville

In my first version of the draft I gave the Rams a lineman and a safety with the first two picks. They are getting the same positions in this version, just different players. I don’t think there is as big a drop off between Clinton-Dix and Pryor as there is between Matthews and Robinson, and I wouldn’t necessarily call Pryor’s selection a mistake. He is less disciplined than Clinton-Dix but is capable of making more game altering plays. The Rams could certainly use a playmaker in their secondary, but I think with the talent they have at defensive line they would be better off filling up their defense with solid, reliable players.

14) Chicago Bears – Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh

Donald is a better version of Henry Melton, who the Bears lost to free agency this year after an injury robbed him of most of last season. Both players make up for their lack of size with phenomenal athleticism, but Donald is far Melton’s superior in technique. He should go higher than this, but the Giants are the only team between here and number six with a need on the interior of their defensive line. The Bears get fortunate and land one of the best players in the draft in the middle of the first round, allowing them to overlook the disasters they have at their safety positions.

15) Pittsburgh Steelers – Kyle Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech

The Steelers have promised to get a large wide receiver for Roethlisberger, but with both Evans and Ebron off the board they will save that for a later round. With their first pick they will choose to address their biggest need on defense. Ike Taylor is on his last legs, and their young cornerbacks haven’t developed as they’ve hoped. It appears that after years investing third and fourth round picks into the position they will have to take one in the first. Darqueze Dennard is a possibility, but I expect that they’ll go for the later riser Fuller. He isn’t as natural in coverage as Dennard, but he has every bit as much athleticism and upside as Gilbert.

16) Dallas Cowboys – Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M

I don’t buy the rumors surrounding Manziel to the Buccaneers, but I absolutely believe that the Cowboys will take him if they get a chance. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if Tampa Bay’s posturing convinces Dallas to trade up to number seven to grab him. It isn’t necessarily a mistake to invest in a young quarterback. Tony Romo is 34 and has a massive cap hit in 2015. But they have needs on defense at pretty much every single position, and they would be much better off taking someone like Clinton-Dix or Mosley.

17) Baltimore Ravens – Zack Martin, OL, Notre Dame

The Ravens weren’t exactly devastated by the departure of Michael Oher in free agency, but they will have to find someone to replace him in the draft. Their offensive line was a major disappointment last year, though it managed to escape criticism thanks to the more notable struggles of their running backs. They already have Eugene Monroe and Marshall Yanda locked in at left tackle and right guard, but Martin could conceivably be a replacement at any of the other positions. His ideal position is right tackle, and even if he spends his rookie year playing guard he will likely move out to tackle by year two.

18) New York Jets – Odell Beckham, WR, LSU

As in my first mock draft, the Jets get a wide receiver with their first round pick. This time it is Beckham, the perceived third best receiver available. I don’t think much of Beckham. He is a good football player, but he doesn’t excel in any area of the game. With this year’s deep receiver class the Jets could find nearly as good a player in either the second or the third round and use this pick to fill one of their other holes. I’m not completely confident they won’t go this way. They have a remarkable trend of drafting defensive players since hiring Rex Ryan, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they took a linebacker or a cornerback with this pick.

19) Miami Dolphins – CJ Mosley, LB, Alabama

Mosley could work his way up into the top ten, but durability concerns will knock him down closer to where I think he belongs. He will be a dominant player against the run and a solid contributor as a pass defender, even though his limited athleticism restricts his versatility. The Dolphins need such a player to man the middle of their defense behind their talented line. They vastly overpaid for Dannell Ellerbe last offseason, and the position remains a major need. With Martin, Lewan, Matthews, and Robinson all off the board they will have to wait until the next round to address their offensive line.

20) Arizona Cardinals – Dee Ford, OLB, Auburn

Here is another pick where my two mock drafts overlap. The Cardinals have managed a successful pass rush the past two seasons thanks to inside pressure from Daryl Washington and Calais Campbell, but to have a truly dominant defense they will need to find some way to collapse the pocket from the edge. They are hoping that Barr will slip to them, but if not they will reach for a lesser prospect. Another possibility would be for them to take a quarterback to sit behind Carson Palmer for the next year or two. I have seen a number of scenarios linking them to Carr, but in this case he is already off the board.

21) Green Bay Packers – Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama

Clinton-Dix falls farther than he probably should, right into Green Bay’s lap. He could easily go to the Vikings, the Rams, the Bears, the Cowboys, the Ravens, the Jets, or even the Cardinals, but they all pass on him to address other positions of need. The Packers end up getting a player of great value who fits a major need in their secondary. Of the two top safeties they would probably prefer Pryor—he fits nicely into the spot vacated by the departure of Charles Woodson before last season—but Clinton-Dix will provide them with the reliable safety over the top that they’ve lacked since injuries forced Nick Collins into retirement.

22) Philadelphia Eagles – Marqise Lee, WR, USC

Lee had a disappointing 2013 season, but I doubt there is anyone in the NFL with more respect for the player he was in 2011 and 2012 than Chip Kelly. In Lee’s two games against Oregon while Kelly was the head coach he put up over 300 yards and three touchdowns. Philadelphia needs a wide receiver after the departure of Desean Jackson, and even though Kelly has professed a liking for larger receivers he will happily jump at the possibility to grab his old Pac-12 foe. A similar line of thinking could lead them to Brandin Cooks, but Lee’s ability to run shorter routes makes him more suited for Kelly’s offense.

23) Kansas City Chiefs – Xavier Su’a-Filo, OG, UCLA

The loss of Branden Albert will force Kansas City to shuffle around their offensive line this season. They are left with unproven first overall pick Eric Fisher at left tackle, third year player Jeff Allen at right guard, and at left guard Rishaw Johnson, whose only career start came in Week 17 last year. They will try to add depth and versatility to this line. Su’a-Filo’s long term future in the NFL is at guard, but during his time at UCLA he showed the ability to slide out and play tackle if necessary.

24) Cincinnati Bengals – Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State

Dennard is a top fifteen player who will slide outside the top twenty because of his lack of athletic ability. The Bengals will scoop him up if given a chance. If he doesn’t fall this far, I still expect the Bengals to use the pick on a defensive player. They have surrounded Dalton with as much talent as they can, and now they have to worry about patching the developing holes on the defense. They seem to believe that they can find defensive linemen outside the first round, but they could use this pick on either a linebacker or a safety if a player they like is available.

25) San Diego Chargers – Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio State

San Diego’s pass defense was atrocious last season, and with this pick they will simply take whoever they believe is the best cornerback available. Fuller could slide right into their laps, but I think they will have to settle for either Roby or Jason Verrett. I have them pegged with Roby, who still manages to land in the first round despite issues both on and off the field. He is a gambler who can be exposed by big plays, and he won’t help seal the holes in the Chargers secondary right away, though he has as much long term upside as any cornerback in this draft.

26) Cleveland Browns – Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, Eastern Illinois

The Browns pass up on a quarterback at number four and get the first pick of the second tier at number twenty-six. I honestly have no idea who they prefer from among Bridgewater, Mettenberger, McCarron, Garoppolo, and Savage, but if I had to bet I would go with the big armed quarterback out of Eastern Illinois. Garoppolo will need a lot of work to transition from Division IAA to the NFL, and the Browns selecting him would indicate that they don’t believe they are ready to compete yet. I’m not certain whether I agree or disagree with this assessment, but I definitely think it would be smarter for them both in the short and long term to grab Bridgewater.

27) New Orleans Saints – Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon State

The Saints are putting everything they have on Drew Brees’s final seasons, so they might as well give him as much to work with as possible. They will trust Rob Ryan’s scheme to cover the holes on their defense while they maximize the talent of their offense. The Saints are in need of a playmaker after losing Darren Sproles, and Cooks can occupy a similar role as a player who can create yards in tight spaces. He will also bring a deep ball threat back to an offense that has been struggling to find someone to replace Robert Meachem for the past two seasons.

28) Carolina Panthers – Morgan Moses, OT, Virginia

Cam Newston still doesn’t have anyone to throw the ball to, but he can at least count on not being sacked from behind on every play. Moses is the best offensive tackle that Carolina could hope to get at this position, and he may not even fall this far if a team like Miami or New Orleans decides to upgrade at the position. He will never be a truly dominant player in the NFL, but under the right circumstances he can develop into an average starting left tackle. With the depth at the receiver position in this draft, Carolina can afford to wait until the second or third round to add a weapon.

29) New England Patriots – Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville

Okay, I don’t actually think Bridgewater is going to be picked by the Patriots. It’s a possibility, but I mostly put him here because I didn’t know what else to do with him. I think Bridgewater is the best quarterback in the draft. I think his accuracy sets him apart from all other passers. I think that at least one team will recognize this and choose to take him, possibly a team trading up from early in the second round. I would be stunned if Bridgewater falls out of the first round.

I put him with the Patriots because they are the team I think is most likely to trade back. They have no desperate needs that require a first round talent, but they have plenty of smaller holes that can be filled by multiple later round picks. If they don’t trade back, I do see some small chance that they could take Bridgewater. They found a lot of success with a player who fell to the sixth round because he “didn’t look like a quarterback” and I can’t imagine Bridgewater’s skinny frame will scare them away. And no, I don’t think the Brady-Bridgewater comparison is ridiculous. They both excel at getting the ball precisely where it needs to be precisely when it needs to be there. I’m not saying that Bridgewater will be Tom Brady, but he deserves to go in the first round.

30) San Francisco 49ers – Ra’Shede Hageman, DE/DT, Minnesota

It is very possible that the 49ers could select a cornerback with this pick. After losing the mediocre Carlos Rogers this offseason, they are left with next to nothing at the position. But San Francisco has built their team from the lines out, and I expect that they will continue to do so. Justin Smith doesn’t have much left in the tank, and they need to find someone to replace the most important player on their defense. Hageman is a tremendous bargain at number thirty, and I have faith that Jim Harbaugh can get him to maximize his talents.

31) Denver Broncos – Ryan Shazier, LB, Ohio State

Shazier is one of my favorite prospects in the draft, but I hate that so many projections have him linked to the Broncos. He is still very raw as a player—he needs to get better at playing in traffic and breaking off blocks—and the Broncos need someone who can contribute immediately to their defense. They would be better off selecting a lesser prospect like Chris Borland or Jason Verrett who can start from day one, rather than a player who won’t reach his full potential until after their championship window has closed.

32) Seattle Seahawks – Joel Bitionio, OL, Nevada

Many have projected that Seattle will go defensive line with this pick, but I think they feel confident they can find quality defensive linemen in later rounds. Instead I expect them to address their biggest weakness on the other side of the ball, their offensive line. In my first mock draft I had Seattle selecting offensive guard David Yankey with this pick. I’m a bigger fan of Yankey than most people, and I expect Seattle will go instead with the more versatile Bitionio. The lineman out of Nevada can play pretty much any position on the line, and I expect they will give him a shot at right tackle and only slide him in to play guard if that doesn’t work out.

Mock Draft Version One: If I Ruled the World

The NFL Draft is this Thursday, and I cannot understate how excited I am. I’ve been counting down to this day since the free agency frenzy wound down, and it certainly has taken its time getting here. A couple weeks ago I was excited to have the extra time to study the players coming into the league, but now I just want to get on with my life (let’s just pretend I have a life to get on with, okay.)

When it comes to mock drafts, the biggest question any person has to answer is whether they are doing a projection based on what they think will happen or what they think should happen. Most try to find a compromise, but I decided just to split my efforts into two separate mock drafts. Today I will go through what would happen if I was in charge of every team making the picks, and tomorrow I will post what I actually think will occur. I kept my explanations relatively short on each team, but if you want to read more of my thoughts on the players and the teams in the draft, here are the articles I’ve published so far.

Quarterback Prospects

Quarterback Purgatory

Offensive Prospects

Defensive Prospects

Potential Trades

One important detail: I don’t believe in projecting trades in mock drafts. I find it more fun to operate within the constraints of the draft order, even though the teams in the league won’t do it. Neither of my mocks will include a trade, though I will mention several that make sense.

Again, this isn’t what I think will happen. This is what I think should happen.

1) Houston Texans – Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville

I’ve made no secret of my love for Bridgewater, even as he has fallen on all other draft boards. To me the most important aspect of quarterback play is accuracy, and Bridgewater is one of the most accurate passers I have ever seen. Even if he occasionally struggles with the deep ball, he will more than make up for it with his precision to all other areas of the field. Houston is nowhere near as bad as their record last year indicated, and with quality quarterback play they can compete for a playoff spot in a weak conference next season.

2) St Louis Rams – Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M

Matthews isn’t the best player left on the board, but he is the best that fits the Rams roster. They have the best pair of defensive ends in the league and would add very little by drafting Clowney. They have invested high picks in wide receivers each of the past two drafts, and they need to stick with those players through their development. They might be able to find space for Khalil Mack, but I think it would be smarter to grab Matthews to fill one of the holes on their offensive line. He will likely start at right tackle his first couple years before displacing Jake Long on the left side and locking down that position for the next decade.

3) Jacksonville Jaguars – Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina

Jacksonville needs a quarterback every bit as badly as Houston, but they have a lot more holes to fill. No matter who they add they will not be competing for the playoffs this season, so they should just take the best player available. Clowney is head and shoulders above the rest of the draft class, a rare combination of athleticism and technique. Houston is getting a franchise quarterback and Indianapolis already has one, and if Jacksonville wants to compete down the road they will need to find some way to slow down their division rivals. They can grab a quarterback in the second round and use a couple years to build their roster before deciding if they need to invest a top pick in a quarterback.

4) Cleveland Browns – Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M

The Browns are closer to the Texans than they are to the Jaguars. They have one of the most talented defenses in the league, and their offense looks like it is starting to come together as well. Joe Thomas continues to be a dominant presence on the left side, and Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron were among the most dangerous weapons in the league last year even without a quarterback. I don’t think Cleveland is the best fit for Manziel—he needs an organization with more structure and cohesion—but he is undoubtedly the best quarterback after Bridgewater. With Manziel the Browns can be competitive this season, and for years to come.

5) Oakland Raiders – Sammy Watkins

Like Jacksonville, Oakland needs to take the best player on the board. That player is Watkins, a wonderfully versatile wide receiver who will bring some excitement to their offense for the first time since the Rich Gannon era. They still need someone to throw him the ball, someone to block up front, someone to run the ball, someone to stuff the run, and someone to cover opposing receivers, but Watkins is a decent start.

6) Atlanta Falcons – Khalil Mack, OLB, Buffalo

Atlanta has two pressing needs: pass rusher and offensive line. They could address either here, but I have them going with Khalil Mack over Taylor Lewan. Mack is a more complete player, a dangerous force against the run in addition to his abilities as a pass rusher. Atlanta’s free agent signings suggest that they will be using a 3-4 scheme more often this season, which will play perfectly into Mack’s skillset. This pick is an absolute steal at number six.

7) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan

Off the field issues have dropped Lewan in the draft, but they don’t concern me too much. He allegedly assaulted a couple of Ohio State fans, which I truly didn’t realize was a criminal act. I am willing to overlook this indiscretion, especially when I watch him drop into a pass set. He is a better pass blocker than Matthews, and he isn’t a liability in the running game either. The Buccaneers let Donald Penn go this offseason and replaced him with Anthony Collins, but they still have a significant hole at one of their tackle positions.

8) Minnesota Vikings – Blake Bortles, QB, UCF

Perhaps I am just an optimist, but I think the Vikings could be just as competitive as the Browns or the Texans with quality quarterback play. Their team played dismally last year, but they have a lot of young talent ready to burst onto the scene. Bortles isn’t the ideal player to shepherd this emergence—he is too raw and will likely need a year or two to develop—but the talent there is undeniable. He could easily wind up as a bust, but if he lives up to his potential the Vikings will be one of the best teams in the league three or four years from now.

9) Buffalo Bills – Marqise Lee, WR, USC

The Bills drafted EJ Manuel in the first round last year, and now they need to get him some help. They don’t need a wide receiver as desperately as they need an offensive lineman, but both the linemen worth taking in the top ten are already off the board. Instead they will settle for Lee, a player who was projected as a top ten pick after stellar freshman and sophomore seasons. He now looks like he could fall to the second round, but I still think he is the second best receiver in this class. He will have an immediate positive impact on the Bills offense, and he will give them a chance to figure out whether or not Manuel is their answer at quarterback.

10) Detroit Lions – Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State

The Lions seem to believe that they don’t need a cornerback, but they are terribly mistaken. With their defensive line they should be dominating games defensively, but the holes in their coverage give the opposing quarterback an easy out whenever he feels pressure in his face. Dennard is as ready to play in the NFL as any player in this draft, and picking him will allow the Lions to immediately seal these holes. It might be enough to push them into the playoffs next season, which would make up for Dennard’s lack of long term upside.

11) Tennessee Titans – Anthony Barr, DE/OLB, UCLA

This is one spot where what I think should happen overlaps with what most people think will happen. Barr is one of the most talented players in the draft, but he is also one of the least experienced and skilled. It will take two or three years for him to reach his potential, but once he does he could be every bit as good as Clowney or Mack. The Titans are right in the middle of a long rebuilding process, and they can afford to let him develop while they add talent on both sides of the ball. It will be interesting to see how they fit him into a defense that doesn’t exactly suit his talents, but I have faith that either this coaching staff or the next will find a way to get the most out of Barr.

12) New York Giants – Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh

I believe Donald is one of the ten best players in the draft, and the only reason I have him falling this far is because the teams in slots seven through eleven are all set at the three technique. A lack of positional versatility will cause Donald to slide down the draft, but it won’t stop a team with a hole at defensive tackle from drafting him. The Giants certainly have such a hole, and they will be fortunate to have a chance to draft Donald. In recent years they have built their defense around a dangerous pass rush, and for the first time they will have a chance to bring in an interior linemen as skilled as the edge rushers they have cycled through over past fifteen years.

13) St Louis Rams – Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama

After addressing their biggest offensive hole with their first selection, the Rams should find a way to fix one of the vulnerabilities in their defense. Their line is fantastic, and they spent a first round pick last year on Alec Ogletree to play next to James Laurinaitis at linebacker. That leaves the secondary, where they are in desperate need of someone to protect them over the top. Clinton-Dix specializes in disciplined coverage in the deep zone, and he should be able to hold down the big plays while the monsters up front chase down the quarterback.

14) Chicago Bears – Calvin Pryor, S, Louisville

The entire defense was a mess last year in Chicago, but at no position was it worse than safety. Chris Conte is the number one reason the Packers made the playoffs, and they have done next to nothing to address the position so far this offseason. They would love to see Clinton-Dix fall to them, but with him gone they will reach for Pryor, a player who is less reliable but has higher upside. He will probably be burned in coverage almost as often as their safeties last year, but he will at least be able to make the occasional big play to offset his weakness. In time they should be able to develop him into a dangerous weapon on the back end of their defense.

15) Pittsburgh Steelers – Eric Ebron, TE, North Carolina

When Ben Roethlisberger came into the league his rookie season, his favorite target was six foot five Plaxico Burress. Burress left after that one season, and Roethlisberger has been forced to utilize smaller, quicker receivers ever since. He has made it clear this offseason that he wants a larger target to throw to. Letting your quarterback dictate your draft is normally a bad idea, but in this case it will lead to a good result. Ebron will be the perfect large target for Roethlisberger, working primarily as a receiver for the first couple years as he develops his skills as a blocker under the tutelage of Heath Miller.

16) Dallas Cowboys – Ra’Shede Hageman, DE/DT, Minnesota

I can think of few teams that need help on defense more desperately than the Cowboys. A unit already devoid of talent lost both DeMarcus Ware and Jason Hatcher to free agency, and if they want to rebuild they will have to start on the line. Hageman has the talent to be selected in the top ten, but he lacks the consistency and the attitude to be considered a dominant player. The team that takes him will have to hope that they can coach his full potential out of him. I’m not sure that the Cowboys are the team to do this, but it is worth the gamble.

17) Baltimore Ravens – Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M

I’m not as high on Evans as most people. I love his upside, and he certainly boasts a rare combination of size and speed, but I can’t invest a top ten pick in a receiver who can only run two or three routes. He will be perfect for the Ravens at number seventeen however, lining up across the field from Torrey Smith to give them the best deep ball combination in the league to complement the best deep ball thrower in the league. Wide receiver isn’t a position of huge need after the Steve Smith acquisition, but with the other uncertainties on their offense it is a good idea to try to add another weapon.

18) New York Jets – Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon State

The lack of skill position talent on the Jets last year was staggering, and the acquisition of Eric Decker doesn’t come close to fixing their problems. Whether their quarterback next year is Geno Smith or Michael Vick, they are going to need someone to throw the ball to. Cooks is a very similar player to Vick’s former teammate Desean Jackson, and he should be able to stretch the field while Decker operates as more of a possession receiver.

19) Miami Dolphins – Zack Martin, OT, Notre Dame

Last season the Dolphins were involved in a hazing scandal with disturbing racial undertones, and it was only the second biggest disaster involving their offensive line. The fact that Ryan Tannehill can still walk is a minor miracle. They added Branden Albert to lock down the left tackle position, but that still leaves them with holes at right tackle and at both guards. Martin can step in and play any of these positions, and with Albert in place they don’t have to worry about his occasional struggles as a pass protector on the blind side. This is as ideal a fit as there is in this draft.

20) Arizona Cardinals – Dee Ford, DE/OLB, Auburn

The Cardinals are a puzzling team, with a number of minor holes but no glaring weaknesses. They have a lot of young players who may or may not develop over the next few years, but for right now they just have to wait and see. I considered grabbing Derek Carr to sit behind Carson Palmer for the next year or two, but I decided instead to draft an edge pass rusher. This is the one position that is holding their defense back from being an elite unit, and last year they were forced to rely on the surprisingly effective corpse of John Abraham. Ford is a clear step below the top three pass rushers, but he can still bring a dangerous edge to the Cardinals defense.

21) Green Bay Packers – CJ Mosley, LB, Alabama

Mosley’s biggest problem is his ability to play outside the tackle box, and in my mind that drops him out of the top twenty. But there is no one in the draft who can stuff the run quite like he can, and the Packers should leap at the opportunity to close down this hole in their defense. The past few years their run defense has been consistently average, but on several occasions they have been torn to pieces by large, physical runners. Mosley can match these runners and halt them in their tracks, and the Packers will happily endure the parts of the field he cannot cover.

22) Philadelphia Eagles – Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio State

Drafting Roby is probably the biggest gamble of the first round. He is one of the finer athletic talents in the draft, and in 2012 he showed plenty of coverage ability to go along with that athleticism. In 2013 he was beaten for too many big plays, but if there is a team in the league that can weather the occasional big play it is Philadelphia. The hope would be that he can create more game altering moments than he allows. There is no cornerback in the draft who plays the ball better than Roby, and he should contribute at least four or five interceptions a year if given a chance to start.

23) Kansas City Chiefs – Odell Beckham, WR, LSU

I’m not a huge fan of Odell Beckham. I see a wide receiver with very little upside, who will struggle if ever asked to be more than a number two option. Fortunately, he won’t have to be in Kansas City. Dwayne Bowe struggled last year mostly due to Alex Smith’s inability to throw towards the sidelines, and the Chiefs need to find a player who can exploit the middle of the field. It might be worth reaching for a tight end, but I think Beckham can attack those similar regions of the field.

24) Cincinnati Bengals – Kyle Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech

A late riser, Fuller has leapt into the first round thanks to an impressive performance at the NFL Combine. Unlike the higher touted Justin Gilbert, Fuller shows coverage skills to match his athletic ability. The Bengals are facing a number of questions at the cornerback position. The repeated injuries to Leon Hall and the lack of development of Dre Kirkpatrick have left them uncertain about their future at the position. Drafting Fuller could clear some of that up and give them a talented young player to build the back end of their defense around.

25) San Diego Chargers – Ryan Shazier, LB, Ohio State

San Diego’s most pressing need is at cornerback, but their defense is so utterly devoid of talent that they need to simply grab the best defensive player available. That would be Shazier, an intriguing athletic specimen who can play either inside or outside linebacker. He ran a sub 4.4 forty at his pro day and looks even faster on the field, playing from sideline to sideline in a way that most linebackers can’t. He is a bit of a project, but he is the sort of dynamic player that you can build a defense around. A couple years down the road he could be one of the five best defensive players to come out of this class.

26) Cleveland Browns – Greg Robinson, OL, Auburn

It is a common refrain to say Robinson “struggles” in pass protection, and this is a rare case where draft criticism actually undersells a player’s faults. Robinson cannot pass protect whatsoever. To take a player like that in the top ten is insane, but his athletic ability makes him worth a risk in the late first round. In Cleveland he won’t get a chance to expose his quarterback’s backside at left tackle, and there is no better place for him to develop than at left guard between Pro Bowlers Alex Mack and Joe Thomas. He might turn out to be a decent tackle three or four years from now, and even if he doesn’t he’ll make a very good guard.

27) New Orleans Saints – Louis Nix, DT, Notre Dame

The Saints made a transition to a 3-4 scheme last season, and overall it was a success. Cameron Jordan had a breakout year, and the entire defense recovered from its brutal 2012 season. But the one thing they still lack is a run stuffing, blocker eating nose tackle, and at pick number twenty-seven they are in perfect position to get such a player. Nix will give their linebackers more room to flow towards the ball and will prevent the quarterback from stepping up in the pocket as their edge rushers close in. He won’t make plays as other nose tackles like Vince Wilfork and Dontari Poe do, but he will make everyone around him better.

28) Carolina Panthers – Morgan Moses, OT, Virginia

Carolina has urgent needs at both receiver and offensive tackle, and they will address one of them with their first round pick. Tackle seems to be the route they are favoring, and with the best receivers off the board I’ll go the same direction. Moses is a clear step below Matthews, Lewan, and even Martin, but he should be able to turn into an average starting left tackle. This low in the draft Carolina can’t expect to do any better, though they may want to consider moving up to try to snag someone with higher upside.

29) New England Patriots – Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Florida State

There are so many ways I could have gone with this pick. The Patriots have holes at nearly every position, but they also have possible fixes at nearly every position. Right now they don’t seem to know whether to go all in during Tom Brady’s final years or to start rebuilding for the future. I say they should go all in, and they should do so by getting Brady another weapon to work with. Benjamin isn’t nearly as fast as Randy Moss but he can fill that role in their offense, a deep play receiver whose ability to win contested balls gives Brady an out when the pressure starts to close in. Partnered with their other young weapons and a possibly healthy Rob Gronkowski, they could pull together an elite offense for another year or two.

30) San Francisco 49ers – Kony Ealy, DE, Missouri

Both Justin Smith and Aldon Smith played their college football at Missouri, and it seems fitting that the replacement for one of them should come from that school. Ealy could conceivably fill in for either of them in the NFL, bulking up to replace Justin Smith once he retires or slimming down to fill Aldon Smith’s pass rushing role if his off the field issues lead to a parting of ways. He isn’t nearly as talented as either of the other two, but he is the best the 49ers will be able to find this late in the draft.

31) Denver Broncos – Chris Borland, ILB, Wisconsin

The Broncos are going all in over the next couple seasons, meaning this year they have to draft a player who can contribute immediately. Borland is such a player, with the intelligence and the technical skill to make up for his lack of athletic upside. He has little room to improve in his career, and it is probably a reach to grab him in the first round. Five years down the road they could regret passing on higher upside players like Justin Gilbert and Timmy Jernigan. But of the players remaining on the board, Borland is the one that can do the most to help them win a Super Bowl this season.

32) Seattle Seahawks – David Yankey, OG, Stanford

The offensive line is the secret weakness of Seattle’s roster. Russell Okung is fantastic at tackle and Max Unger is a solid center, but at every other position they are below average. With the roster they have constructed they can afford to reach to fill a need, and Yankey will immediately make them better in both the run and the pass game. Another option would be to address some of their losses to free agency on the defensive side of the ball. They lost two of their top four cornerbacks and two of their top four defensive ends, but I think these are positions better addressed in later rounds.