Yesterday
I went division by division to give my predictions for every team, including
the final playoff field. I had New England, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, and Houston as the division winners in the AFC, with Los Angeles and Baltimore
joining them in the playoffs as Wild Card representatives. And in the NFC I had
Atlanta, Philadelphia, Seattle, and Green Bay winning the divisions, with Los
Angeles and New Orleans rounding out the playoff field.
Of
these twelve teams only two can make the Super Bowl, and of course only one can
be crowned champion. My final predictions for this are at the bottom of this
post, but to get there you’ll have to read through my end of season award
predictions. Or else just scroll to the bottom without reading, which sounds
like a lot less fun.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
The
Cardinals aren’t going to be good, but Murray is going to put up numbers.
Arizona is going to spread the field with as many wide receivers as they can
trust to catch the ball, and they are going to let Murray loose to make as many
spectacular plays and terrible mistakes as he can muster. He will throw quite a
few interceptions, and he will take a lot of sacks. But he will also pile up
passing yards and touchdowns, as well as adding some dynamic highlights on the
ground.
It
helps that I don’t expect this to be a very competitive field. As far as other
quarterbacks go, I expect Dwayne Haskins to take over sometime in the first
month of the season in Washington, while Daniel Jones likely won’t be the
quarterback in New York until at least November. Haskins could make a run, but
I expect the Redskins to be cautious with him, trying to feed their running
game rather than exposing their young quarterback with a weak supporting cast.
Outside
of the quarterback position, I’m not sure there are very many options. The only
two receivers who went in the first round have both suffered injuries that will
limit their ability to immediately contribute, as has DK Metcalf in Seattle.
None of the running backs have the talent of an Alvin Kamara or a Saquon
Barkley to flash immediately, though Devin Singletary in Buffalo has a clearer
path to playing time now that LeSean McCoy is gone.
Other
possibilities:
Dwayne
Haskins, QB, Washington Redskins
Devin
Singletary, RB, Buffalo Bills
Miles
Sanders, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Devin Bush, LB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Last
season was the first time since 2006 that a player chosen outside the first
round won this award, so it feels safe to say we can limit this pool to the
eighteen defensive players selected in that round. The first off the board was
Nick Bosa, but he’s been banged up in training camp and will likely come on too
slow to put up the sack numbers he needs to claim this award.
In
fact, I don’t really see anyone in line to put up double digit sack production.
Clelin Ferrell isn’t an elite pass rusher, Josh Allen is going to play off the
ball too much to produce high sack numbers right away, and the other pass
rushers will mostly be rotational players to start their careers. Ed Oliver and Quinnen Williams could do a lot of damage from the interior, but I
think it will take a couple years before their coaching staffs really gear
their schemes around freeing them up and getting the production they would need
to win it.
Bush,
on the other hand, has a ready-made spot for him waiting in Pittsburgh’s
lineup. They’ve had a glaring hole in their defense ever since Ryan Shazier
went down, and Bush is the closest to Shazier’s dynamic speed that has
entered the league since. Behind one of the most underrated defensive lines in
the NFL, he will be free to flow to the ball and rack up big numbers as a
tackler, a pass rusher, and a pass defender. Turnovers are always difficult to
predict, but his ability to always be around the ball could produce the sort of
numbers he needs to claim this award, maybe two or three interceptions to go
along with a similar number of forced fumbles and four or five sacks as a
situational blitzer.
Other
possibilities:
Josh
Allen, OLB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Ed
Oliver, DT, Buffalo Bills
Brian
Burns, DE, Carolina Panthers
Coach of the Year
Matt LaFleur, Green Bay Packers
In
fifteen of the last sixteen years this award has gone either to the coach of a
team that made the playoffs after missing it the year before, or to Bill
Belichick. I went fairly conservative with my predictions of the playoff field, and only four
coaches fit that criteria. Belichick of course, but he hasn’t won since 2010,
and people seem to have just accepted that he’s the best coach in the league
and it isn’t fair to consider him. The other three options are two proven long
time head coaches—Mike Tomlin and Dan Quinn—and the rookie LaFleur in Green
Bay.
Of
the first two, I think Quinn is the most likely option. If the Falcons do claim
the top seed in the NFC, it will likely be because the young defense finally
came together, coincidentally the year he took over the play calling on that
side of the ball. Tomlin would have a case as well, especially if their offense
doesn’t miss any steps after the tumultuous offseason that cost them their best
player. But I think they will have a few more bumps than the Falcons, and
Tomlin has always struggled at some of the most noticeable parts of coaching
(he hasn’t won a challenge since 2016).
But
I’m going with LaFleur. The already hyped offensive mind out of Los Angeles,
working with a quarterback who seems due for a bounceback year. If the Packers
offense starts rolling again and carries them to a title in one of the most
competitive divisions in football, most of the credit will go to the infusion
of offensive ideas from their new head coach.
Other
possibilities:
Bill
Belichick, New England Patriots
Dan
Quinn, Atlanta Falcons
Pete
Carroll, Seattle Seahawks
Defensive Player of the Year
Bobby Wagner, Seattle Seahawks
Aaron
Donald is the obvious choice. He is more or less unstoppable, and he only seems
to get better with each passing year. There is no doubt in my mind that he’s
the best defensive player in football. But I also have to look at history, and
how the narratives of these awards will unfold. No player has ever won this
award three years in a row. In fact, only two players have ever won it three
times total—Lawrence Taylor and JJ Watt. Donald absolutely deserves to be in
the same conversation as those players, but I think it will take him another
year or two to get there, especially if the Rams slip up as I expect.
It’s
a new era in Seattle. That’s been pretty obvious for several years now, but it
became absolutely official once Earl Thomas left town. The Legion of Boom is
gone, but for a few seasons now the best player on this defense has been
Wagner, and I think this is the season he gets rewarded for his years of
consistent dominance.
Donald,
Wagner, and Watt are a clear step above the rest of the league (and maybe Von
Miller/Khalil Mack, though it’s hard to win this award and miss the playoffs).
For anyone to challenge these players they would likely need to put up big sack
numbers, and among these playoff teams I do see a few candidates. Joey Bosa, if
he can stay healthy. Frank Clark in Kansas City, and even Jadeveon Clowney in
Seattle. TJ Watt in Pittsburgh has an outside shot to produce those numbers,
even though I don’t think he’s the same caliber player as the others I’ve
listed. And of course, I should mention Fletcher Cox, a consistently dominant
player who just never seems to get the attention he deserves.
Other
possibilities:
Aaron
Donald, DT, Los Angeles Rams
JJ
Watt, DE, Houston Texans
Joey
Bosa, DE, Los Angeles Chargers
MVP
Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks
I’m
not even going to entertain the notion that anyone other than a quarterback
could win this. No wide receiver has ever won the award (because it’s hard to
put up big receiving stats without a quarterback also producing big passing
stats), and there are no running backs among the top teams with the skill to
take over games as Adrian Peterson did when he won the award in 2012. This is a
quarterback award, and we should probably just make it official and create a
new award for non-QB contenders.
(Though
I don’t think we should get too up in arms about a “loss of positional
diversity” for an award that has been won by 38 quarterbacks, 16 running backs,
one pass rusher, one defensive tackle, and one kicker (yes, a kicker once won
the award (to his credit he made almost 85% of his extra points that season
(yes, I am amused by nested parentheticals (no, I’m not going to stop (okay
this is the end now (just kidding)))))))
Of
the quarterbacks, it has to be from a playoff team, and it has to be someone
who will produce big passing numbers as the driving force of his offense, so
drop Lamar Jackson and Jared Goff. Ben Roethlisberger and Phillip Rivers are
too inconsistent game to game, putting up a couple real disasters each year.
Drew Brees and Tom Brady are the old familiar candidates who will likely be
limited in volume as their teams save them up for the postseason. Patrick
Mahomes will be great, but his numbers can’t match what he did a season ago, so
impossible expectations will doom him. And Carson Wentz, well, Carson Wentz
just isn’t that good.
So
that leaves four options. As a Vikings fan I imagine I’ll be tormented by
nightmares of Aaron Rodgers for years to come, so it’s hard to dismiss him as a
possibility. But his performance has declined greatly over the past few years,
and as I addressed above I think most of the credit for any bounceback will go
to his head coach. Deshaun Watson could surprise people with some big stats,
but I still don’t trust the talent around him in Houston to keep him on his
feet. And as deserving as Matt Ryan may be, there has always seemed to be some weird antipathy towards him, and after
handing him one MVP award a couple years ago I think most people will be fine
just letting him rest on that.
So
that leaves Wilson. I’m a little hesitant on this, for a few reasons. First of
all, his offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer is a disgrace, and he will
do everything in his power to keep Wilson from putting up the stats he needs to
win this award. But people who cover the league seem to know how bad
Schottenheimer is, and anything Wilson does will be seen as accomplished in
spite of his coordinator, rather than because of him.
The
offensive line Wilson will be behind will likely be the best he’s had during
his time in Seattle, and he will take full advantage of that. He will still
take a ton of sacks, but now the sacks will be on him, as he holds the ball to
take shots downfield. The loss of Doug Baldwin will throw a wrench into their
passing game, but the combination of Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf will give
them a pair of elite deep targets on the outside, the sort who can produce big
plays to build the narrative behind Wilson winning the award. And as he leads
the Seahawks to a surprise division title, his time will finally come due to
claim the award as the best player (quarterback) in the NFL.
Other
possibilities:
Pat
Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
Matt
Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
Aaron
Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
Super Bowl
Atlanta Falcons 34 – New England Patriots 24
Revenge
is a dish best served three years later.
Of
course everyone remembers what happened the last time these two faced off with
these sort of stakes, even though I personally would like to forget. A 28-3
lead tumbled away and turned into an overtime defeat for the Falcons, in maybe
the most heartbreaking loss in NFL history. Since then, the Patriots have
played in both Super Bowls and won one, while the Falcons suffered another
devastating loss in the Divisional Round two years ago and then failed to make the
playoffs last year.
But
this year I see them on a collision course once again. I don’t need to give
much justification for choosing the Patriots to come out of the AFC. They’ve
represented the conference in the last three Super Bowls, and the AFC remains
thin at the top. The only two teams I could see conceivably challenging the
Patriots are the Chiefs and the Chargers—coincidentally the two teams New
England knocked off on that side of the bracket a season ago. Neither of them
is a particularly good matchup for New England, with the Patriots’ strength
locking down the secondary and their ability to control games on the ground.
The
NFC is a bit more wide open. The top three teams in the NFC North all have the
ability to get hot and go on a run, but in all likelihood I expect the
conference champion to come from one of the other divisions. That still leaves
us with five reasonable contenders—four playoff teams from last year plus the
Falcons. So why do I think Atlanta is going to come out on top?
Simply
put, I think they have the best roster top to bottom in the NFL. They have an
MVP caliber quarterback, which the Eagles and the Rams lack. They have an elite
wide receiver they can trust to win matchups on the outside, something the
Seahawks can’t claim. And they are loaded with depth and talent on defense,
which the Saints fall just short of.
I
think this conference will come down to the winner of the NFC South. Whoever
wins that division will likely claim at least a first round bye, and from there
they will have the advantage of playing in one of the best home environments in
the NFL. If the Saints can win both games against the Falcons, they will have
the edge at making another run deep into the playoffs. But if the Falcons can
at least split those two games, I think their overall depth gives them the
ability to put up a better record over the course of a sixteen game schedule.
And with how Brees faded at the end of last year, you do have to question if
his age is starting to show, and if he can handle the rigors of another full season
and deep playoff run.
The
Falcons should have beaten the Patriots three years ago, and they are even
better set up to do so this year. They are more skilled in their secondary,
with Desmond Trufant available after missing their playoff run in 2016. They’ve
added to their depth up front, and Grady Jarrett has only gotten better after
almost single handedly ripping Tom Brady in half in their previous Super Bowl
matchup. Their linebackers are more experienced, and they won’t be so easily
exploited by James White coming out of the backfield this time around.
In
the end though, the difference maker in this game will be Julio Jones. New
England has always succeeding by zigging while the rest of the league has
zagged, and over the past few years that has meant loading up in the secondary
while the rest of the league has prioritized their pass rush. The McCourtey
brothers give them a pair of excellent athletes and canny veterans patrolling
the back end, while Stephon Gilmore remains one of the most underrated players
in football, a top five cornerback capable of shutting down almost any receiver
in the league.
The
problem is, Jones isn’t almost any receiver. He is a unique player who really
can’t be covered, not by any one cornerback or by any bracket of lesser
defenders. The way to slow down the Falcons is to attack their offensive
line—the biggest concern on their team, especially with two rookies in the
starting lineup. Because if Ryan has time to throw downfield, he is going to
find Jones for a big play, and even if the cornerback can stay with him stride
for stride his ability at the point of the catch makes him almost impossible to
defend.
The
Patriots will be outmatched by Atlanta’s offense, and this time they won’t get
the lucky bounces they need to mount a comeback. Brady will once again find
Jarrett storming into his backfield, and he won’t have the weapons on the
outside to make consistent plays down the field. The Falcons will pull out to
an early lead, and they will coast to a mostly comfortable win after that,
earning the franchise’s first Super Bowl victory.
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