2021 NFC West Preview

 Seattle Seahawks

Best Case Scenario:
As little as I like what Seattle has done with their roster, the presence of Russell Wilson makes it hard for me not to pick them as the favorites in this division. That doesn’t mean I think much of their upside though. At best this is a team that is going to win ten or eleven games, and then make another early playoff exit. In a strange way they’re the team with the best chance to win this division, and the worst chance to win the Super Bowl.

With most teams I can try to talk my way into them outperforming if some young talent makes the leap forward, but I’m not sure where that talent comes from in Seattle. Simply put, the Seahawks have done a terrible job drafting in recent years. The only good young player on their entire roster is DK Metcalf, and otherwise they’re leaning on veterans and young players who have not lived up to expectations. Maybe this is the year that the brilliance of their front office finally shows up, but I think it’s more likely that Wilson struggles to carry this team through another frustrating season that accomplishes very little in the end.

Worst Case Scenario:

This team is a couple bad breaks away from having a truly terrible defense. If Bobby Wagner’s performance continues to decline, and if they don’t see any improvement from recent first round reaches LJ Collier and Jordyn Brooks, I’m not sure where they are going to find any above average starters on their defense outside of Jamal Adams. Typically Pete Carroll’s coaching of technique is enough to make this defense at least average, but at a certain point you do need some talent to work with.

The major investments they’ve made have been to players like Adams and Chris Carson, good players who play positions of limited value, while they’ve let other contributors like Shaquill Griffin and KJ Wright walk away. The presence of Wilson will likely be enough to keep them at least in the running for a playoff spot, but there’s also a decent chance they wind up two or three games out of things at the end of the year.

Player to Watch: Kerry Hyder, DL

Seattle certainly has a type when it comes to defensive linemen. Between Collier, Rasheem Green, and Jadeveon Clowney, they have a habit of going after big, stout defensive ends who lack explosiveness and flexibility, and sometimes struggle to get after the passer because of that. This pass rush has been lifeless for several years as they’ve rotated between these options on the defensive line, and they’ve had to lean heavily on blitzes to get any pressure on the quarterback.

Hyder is built similarly to the players I mentioned above, but he actually brings some history as a pass rusher. Last year he put up 8.5 sacks in San Francisco, and in 2017 he had 8 in Detroit. Of course, in the two years in between he managed only two sacks total, partially due to injury but also partially due to his own limitations. It’s hard to say which version Seattle will be getting, but without much else going on along their front they certainly need him to approach double digit sacks once again.

San Francisco 49ers

Best Case Scenario:
I’m not the biggest fan of Trey Lance, and I expect that when he’s forced into action this year there will be some very ugly moments. But if I’m wrong, if he comes along faster than I expect, and if Kyle Shanahan can scheme up ways for him to use his legs and his arms to create big plays, then the sky is really the limit for this team. Two years ago they were NFC Champions with a pretty piece of paper at quarterback. If they have an actual playmaker at the position, they can absolutely contend for a title this year.

The rest of this roster may have faded some from what they were when they lost the Super Bowl, but for the most part the pieces are still there. They have multiple superstar players on both offense and defense in Trent Williams, George Kittle, Nick Bosa, and Fred Warner. They have strong rotation starters in Arik Armstead, Dee Ford, Deebo Samuel, and Jimmie Ward. They even have a couple of first round picks from 2020 who I expect to make big jumps in their second seasons in Javon Kinlaw and Brandon Aiyuk. In short, this is a team ready to compete with anyone, if they can get someone to kick them into gear at quarterback.

Worst Case Scenario:

Lance is the ultimate wild card. His physical abilities are through the roof, and he put up impressive numbers in college. But he also only has one year as a starter since high school, two years ago against a lower tier of competition. And his tape was extremely erratic, alternating horrendous accuracy with pinpoint lasers, breathtaking scampers with plows into the line that accomplished nothing. The best comparison for him is a less polished Josh Allen, and it took Allen until his third year to be anything other than a burden for his offense.

This team is talented enough to still make the postseason even if Lance isn’t ready or if they’re stuck playing Jimmy Garoppolo for long stretches of the season. But just making the playoffs shouldn’t be the goal for a roster this loaded. They have a window of two or three more years to try to win a title before it becomes impossible to hold this roster together. They have to hope Lance is ready in that time, because if he isn’t they may be forced to start from scratch by the time he puts everything together.

Player to Watch: Trey Sermon, RB

I normally don’t pick rookies in this spot, but Sermon is too obvious a breakout candidate to just ignore. Since the arrival of Kyle Shanahan the 49ers have consistently been able to generate production from just about any running back they put in the backfield, a trademark of the Shanahan system going back to Mike Shanahan’s time in Denver. But entering the draft they really didn’t have much to lean on at the position besides Raheem Moestert, and if he went down they were looking at the uninspiring Wayne Galliman as their top option.

Then they took Sermon, about as good a fit of player and team as you can find. Sermon has his limitations as a runner, but he is exactly what you want out of a zone-scheme running back. He has excellent vision and patience, and he can erupt for big plays cutting back across the formation when the defense overpursues. He drifted around some in college before finding the perfect situation over the second half of his senior season at Ohio State, running for 331 yards against Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship Game and another 193 against Clemson in the playoff semifinal. He isn’t a starter yet, but as the season goes along don’t be surprised if Sermon suddenly starts putting up 100 yard games on a weekly basis.

Los Angeles Rams

Best Case Scenario:
Most people are a lot higher on the Rams than I am, and I can see the case. This team came on strong down the stretch last year, racing into the playoffs on the strength of one of the best defenses in the NFL. The biggest change they made to the roster this offseason was sending away Jared Goff and replacing him with Matthew Stafford, a clear upgrade at the most important position. If they can sustain their level of play on defense and get more out of their offense, they don’t have to climb much farther to become Super Bowl contenders.

These are certainly the best circumstances Stafford has ever found himself in. He doesn’t have the receiving talent he was used to in Detroit, but Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods aren’t a bad duo. Most important, he has an actually good head coach for the first time in his career, and he’s on a team that won’t have to rely on him throwing the ball 40 times a game to make things work. There have been flashes during his career where Stafford has looked like an elite quarterback, and if everything aligns and he reaches those heights again this year, the Rams are as good as any team in the NFC.

Worst Case Scenario:

I’m still not sold on Stafford. As good as some of those flashes have been, he’s never sustained that level of play for more than about a month straight before returning to the slightly-above-average quarterback he’s been for the majority of his career. Slightly-above-average from Goff was enough to get the Rams to the Super Bowl three years ago, but that was with a good offensive line and an excellent running game. The Rams aren’t bad in those areas, but they need a lot more from their quarterback than they did the last time they made a run.

The defense concerns me some too. They’ve pulled off two straight top-ten performances by DVOA, so there’s clearly something real here. But I look at the unit, and I find myself unimpressed by them outside their two big names. Jalen Ramsey is the best cornerback in football when he’s fully engaged, and Aaron Donald is obviously a force unlike any other in the NFL. That may be enough to overcome what otherwise looks like a fairly pedestrian unit. But they will now be playing for their third defensive coordinator in as many seasons, and if there is any hiccup in their performance on this side of the ball, suddenly this team will look a lot like the Lions teams that Stafford endured for the first twelve years of his career.

Player to Watch: Leonard Floyd, EDGE

Floyd washed out of Chicago because of his inability to get pressure on the quarterback, but that doesn’t mean he was a bad player. He’s always been a stout defender against the run, and he has enough athleticism to occasionally drop into coverage. The Rams were happy to add him to their starting lineup, and they were even happier when his pass rush ability emerged last year and he finished second on the team with 10.5 sacks.

The Rams defense last year put a lot of pressure on the players in their defensive front. They frequently play very light boxes, and they trust their players to win one-on-one matchups rather than trying to scheme pressure. Obviously having Donald makes that strategy a lot easier, but the emergence of Floyd as a consistent threat certainly played a role in their success. The big question now is if he can repeat that performance, or if he’ll return to the more average player he was in Chicago.

Arizona Cardinals

Best Case Scenario:
This offense has the potential to be a lot of fun. Kyler Murray took a step forward in his second season, and if he continues his ascent on this trajectory he will become one of the top ten quarterbacks in the NFL, a dynamic dual threat who makes plays all over the field. If AJ Green can be rejuvenated away from Cincinnati, he and DeAndre Hopkins will give them a pair of towers on the outside with a rotation of quick, explosive, and versatile threats from the slot in Christian Kirk, Andy Isabella, and Rondale Moore. This could be an offense that spreads the ball around through quick passes and deep shots and forces defenses to defend every inch of the field on every play.

Their defense is a bit farther from putting it all together, but they have the pieces to be just as exciting. Getting Chandler Jones back on their defensive front will make a huge difference, letting them generate pass rush without relying on the blitzes they did in his absence a year ago. That will give more freedom to players like Budda Baker and Isaiah Simmons, two frenetic athletes that are still figuring out what they’re doing on an NFL field. The best case scenario is that their offense scores enough to let this defense be constantly on the attack, producing enough turnovers and big plays to be able to shrug their shoulders at the lapses that are bound to occur.

Worst Case Scenario:

Kliff Kingsbury is a bad coach. That isn’t necessarily a surprise after his mediocrity at Texas Tech, but the ways in which he’s struggled in the NFL are certainly not what I expected. As much talent as the Cardinals have on the offensive side of the ball, his scheme has rendered them bizarrely bland. They don’t vary formations, they don’t move receivers around to create advantageous matchups, and they don’t do anything interesting with route combinations, essentially just asking Hopkins to run the same out and stick routes up the left sideline forty times a game. In addition, Kingsbury has been one of the most conservative coaches in the league over the past two years, costing them at least two games last year while playing things safe instead of trusting his talent on the field.

If Kingsbury sinks this team again, things could get ugly. So much is depending on him and the rest of the coaching staff developing their young, raw athletes, and any stagnation has to have the entire regime on the hot seat. If Murray still can’t produce a functioning offense, if they still can’t find a way to use Simmons’s talents, if they once again find themselves in the middle of the pack with no real forward momentum, then they have every reason in the world to blow up their front office and coaching staff at the end of the year and try to start fresh in 2022 to give someone new a chance to work with the potential on this roster.

Player to Watch: Byron Murphy, CB

For the first time in more than a decade, the Cardinals will be entering the season without Patrick Peterson to lead the back end of their defense. They signed veteran Malcolm Butler to help stabilize things after Peterson’s departure, but the real brunt of this change will likely fall on Murphy.

Entering his third season, Murphy has already become a solid presence on the outside. He isn’t the biggest or the most athletic cornerback, but he plays with phenomenal technique and excellent ball skills. He has the potential to take the next step and become an elite cornerback, and if he lives up to this the Cardinals will be in much better shape on the defensive side. They have a lot of wild, volatile athletic potential on this side of the ball, but players like Baker and Simmons are at their best when they have someone reliable to cover up for any mistakes they make.