2021 AFC East Preview

 Buffalo Bills

Best Case Scenario:
Buffalo leapt forward a year ago to a berth in the AFC Championship Game, and now the question is whether they have what it takes to go another step farther and become Super Bowl contenders. The big difference a year ago was the emergence of Josh Allen as a star quarterback, and while I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect him to improve even further, there is a chance the offense as a whole could be even better. They managed to retain offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, they have another year for Allen to develop chemistry with Stefon Diggs, and they should hopefully get more from their running game than they did in 2020.

The best chance for improvement on this team is on the defensive side of the ball. Two years ago their defense was strong enough to carry a mediocre offense to the postseason, before regressing to become an average unit in 2020. There’s no single explanation for why they declined a year ago, but if they can find a way to bounce back they have the potential for top five units on both sides of the ball. They have an intriguing collection of young talent along the front four, and while I’m not personally a fan of their preferred type of edge rushers—big, strong, and stiff—if they can get some contribution from players like AJ Epenesa, Gregory Rousseau, or Boogie Basham, they could put together something really special.

Worst Case Scenario:

You always have to hold your breath when a player makes a massive leap forward like Allen did last year. There’s no reason to believe that it wasn’t genuine, other than the two years of performance we saw before. I don’t think it will happen, but there’s always a chance that his mechanical changes regress or he begins to force balls into places they shouldn’t go, or something else goes wrong to sink a player who still only has one year of high-level performance under his belt.

If Allen performs this year like he did a year ago, then this team should be fine. The AFC East could be a little feistier than most people expect, but the Bills should still be a playoff caliber team no matter what. It would be nice if they could develop some more depth at wide receiver, especially with Diggs’s injury history. But with what they have built and with the coaching staff they have in place, I’d be surprised if the Bills weren’t playing in January.

Player to Watch: Cody Ford, OG

Buffalo should be the model franchise going forward when it comes to how to build around a young quarterback. There are some more obvious pieces that helped Allen’s development—the trade for a star veteran receiver, the consistency and quality of the coaching staff—but one other thing they’ve done well is to build an offensive line ahead of him.

Buffalo hasn’t invested a ton in this position. None of their starters is a former first round pick. Their biggest expenditure was the four year $45 million deal they gave center Mitch Morse. They got a couple cheap veteran free agents in Jon Feliciano and Daryl Williams, and added a pair of second round picks in Dion Dawkins and Cody Ford. Of these players, Ford is probably the most interesting. Still just entering his third year, he’s had a bit of a rocky first two seasons that have flashed moments of potential of him becoming something more. He has the tools to elevate his level of play into a high quality guard, which would make Allen even more comfortable operating this offense.

 

Miami Dolphins

Best Case Scenario:
I still believe in Tua Tagovailoa. I expect that by the end of 2021 the Dolphins will feel perfectly happy to have him as their quarterback going forward. It’s just a matter of how quickly he comes along this year. If he gets off to a fast start, this team has the firepower to keep up with Buffalo or at least claim a wild card spot. If he struggles early before getting in sync with the rest of this still-developing offense, it could take until the end of the year for them to go on a hot streak.

Even if the offense takes a while to come together, this defense has the potential to take a leap forward to the level of the league’s elites. They have the best cornerback room in the NFL, and they just added a high upside pass rusher in rookie Jaelen Phillips. Stopping the pass is the most important thing in the NFL, and this team is set up to do just that.

Worst Case Scenario:

Even if this defense carries the Dolphins through a struggling offense to a playoff spot, it won’t be much consolation for their long-term hopes. The future of this team lives and dies with Tagovailoa, and what we’ve seen of him so far on the field hasn’t inspired much hope. He should have everything he needs to succeed in the NFL—a talented receiver group loaded with speed, a couple gifted tight ends, and high draft selections on the offensive line. I’m a little wary of the offensive coordinator duo of Eric Studesville and George Godsey, but the talent is certainly there.

The Dolphins have the foundation of a team with Super Bowl aspirations in the next couple years. I’ve been very impressed with what Brian Flores has done over his first two years, and they have both proven veterans and young talent poised to emerge. The biggest remaining questionmark is the quarterback. The AFC is loaded with talented quarterbacks on rookie contracts, and for the next few years it’s going to be difficult to compete without one of those. The Dolphins are as well set up as anyone to build around their star. They just can’t afford him to turn out to not actually be a star.

Player to Watch: Eric Rowe, S

Rowe has had a bit of a journeyman career, but he seems to have found his home in Miami. A second-round pick in 2015, he struggled as a cornerback for his first year in Philadelphia, before being traded to New England and finding mixed success bouncing between cornerback and safety. But Flores must have seen something he liked, because he brought Rowe with him when he took the Miami head coaching job, and Rowe has started almost every game at safety since.

Miami’s defense leans on aggressive man coverage from its cornerbacks, which is how Xavien Howard put up an astounding 10 interceptions a year ago. But this sort of scheme only works if you have reliable options on the back end to keep mistakes from turning into disasters. Rowe isn’t a major playmaker himself—he has only three interceptions in the past two years—but he can be counted on to be in position and to make tackles to keep the defense on the field so players like Howard and Byron Jones can attack the ball in the air.

New England Patriots

Best Case Scenario:
This is a little strange to wrap my head around, because the best case for New England this year may not be the best case for them long-term. I think the best chance of them making the postseason this year is with Cam Newton at quarterback, heading up a run-heavy attack that overpowers opposing defenses with a massive offensive line and more tight ends than they can handle. This philosophy didn’t really work a year ago, but they’ve added talent in the offseason, and they were actually somewhat competitive in 2020 when Newton was at full strength.

Of course, I think we’re past the days of being able to count on Newton being healthy and functional for an entire season. And if they do try to build their offense around him and he goes down, they’ll have to redesign on the fly to accommodate Mac Jones. They are going to have to do that eventually anyway, and I’m always an advocate of getting highly drafted rookie quarterbacks on the field as soon as possible. They may have some slim chance of slipping into the playoffs if things work out with Newton. But I think the best outcome for them might be to let this team struggle through the season as they figure out what they have with Jones.

Worst Case Scenario:

Bill Belichick is the greatest coach of all time, but he remains a perplexingly bad evaluator of talent. I liked the moves he made adding tight ends Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, even if they were both slight overpays. I cannot imagine why he gave multi-year deals to Kendrick Bourne and Nelson Agholor in an absolutely dry wide receiver market. Two years after spending a first round pick on N’Keal Harry, it seems like he just doesn’t understand what makes a good wide receiver.

Belichick is enough to will this roster to six or seven wins, but at a certain point talent does need to take over. And I just don’t see it with the Patriots. They have a good offensive line and a very good secondary. And outside of that, maybe their defense will improve from getting Dont’a Hightower and Kyle Van Noy back? Maybe the tight ends open up their offense again? Or maybe they drift through the season without a clear identity on offense as they bounce between the two most opposite quarterbacks imaginable, and without any clear plans for how they will find a passing game going forward.

Player to Watch: Damien Harris, RB

With the trade of disappointing former first round pick Sony Michel, it looks like the Patriots are embracing a true running back by committee approach. This is hardly a new thing for them, though in the past they did this in the background of a pass-first offense led by Tom Brady. Now they will try to build a run-heavy attack with a rotating door of running backs behind their line.

Of their backs, Harris is probably the most interesting. Harris is used to sharing the workload in a backfield, as in college he never averaged more than ten carries a game. The heaviest workload he’s ever seen was last year when he had 137 carries in ten games, hardly Eddie George numbers. But he has been efficient whenever he’s gotten the opportunity, averaging 6.4 yards per carry at Alabama and 5.0 last year with the Patriots. I don’t think he’s suddenly going to morph into this offense’s bellcow, especially since he still contributes basically nothing as a receiver out of the backfield. But this team is going to lean heavily on their running game, and it’s good that they have one back who could conceivably swallow twenty carries in a game if they need him to.

New York Jets

Best Case Scenario:
The Jets are still a long way from being competitive, but they’re at least set up now to start building something for the future. Zach Wilson has been the undisputed starter from the moment he was drafted, and he’ll be as prepared for the season as any rookie quarterback this year. His supporting cast isn’t going to blow anyone away, but it’s better than it was a season ago. Corey Davis is a serviceable top receiving option, and the combination of Elijah Moore and Denzel Mims gives them a couple of young developmental options.

The Jets aren’t going to be competitive this year, so the most important thing is to protect their young quarterback. Wilson does some things very well, but handling pressure isn’t one of them. He gets spooked easily and bails out of the pocket if he senses any hint of pressure, which means they need to make certain he always has a good pocket to work from. They certainly have invested heavily in the line, with recent first round selections Mekhi Becton and Alijah Vera-Tucker, along with free agent addition Morgan Moses. This offense will have its struggles, but it should improve as the season goes along to at least make them interesting by the end of the year.

Worst Case Scenario:

Becton and Vera-Tucker are still extremely young, and both are better equipped for run blocking than pass protection. No doubt the Jets want to lean heavily on the running game to support their young quarterback, but they still don’t have much to work with in the backfield. Tevin Coleman and Michael Carter are two backs I’d love having as part of the rotation to offer versatility in passing situations, but neither is the sort I’d want to be counting on to generate consistent yardage on first and second down.

The Jets are pretty talent-starved on defense as well, especially with the brutal preseason injury to Carl Lawson. It isn’t hard to imagine a lot of games getting out of hand very quickly. If they can’t hold teams off the scoreboard and can’t earn easy yards on the ground, they’ll end up in a lot of situations where they have no choice but to drop back and pass. This will allow defenses to attack them where they’re weakest, with pure pass rush that will fluster Wilson and could prevent him from showing off what he’s capable of this year. 

Player to Watch: CJ Mosley, LB

It’s difficult to measure the impact of an inside linebacker. On the one hand, Mosley is a somewhat limited player—a dominant run defender who is inconsistent in pass coverage. He certainly isn’t worth the $85 million contract the Jets handed to him in 2019. But after he opted out in 2020, we’ll have a chance to see just how important he is as he returns to this defense.

On an elite unit someone with Mosley’s weaknesses could be a vulnerability to exploit, but the Jets defense has so many vulnerabilities that this one doesn't really matter. They don’t have much talent, and they have even less experience. Having a veteran in the middle could give them a huge boost. Simply being in the right places and making the right reads could help elevate them from terrible to merely bad, which might be able to limit the blowouts they find themselves in.