2021 NFC East Preview

Dallas Cowboys Best Case Scenario:

The Cowboys were only 1-3 when Dak Prescott went down a year ago, but I still think if he’d stayed healthy they would have coasted to a comfortable division title. Their offense was firing at an absolutely insane level to start the season. They were averaging over 30 points a game, and Prescott rattled off three straight games of over 450 yards passing. And they should only be better this year, as CeeDee Lamb gets more involved with their offense and they (hopefully) get more than 12 games combined from Tyron Smith and Zack Martin.

I don’t have high hopes for this defense, but if the offense runs at the level it’s capable of, the defense needs to simply avoid being a catastrophe to make them the favorites in this division. If Micah Parsons can make some splash plays, if they get improvement from Trevon Diggs at the back end, if they cobble together some sort of pass rush, they can push towards a league average unit. And if they do better than that, they have a chance to compete with the top teams in the NFC.

Worst Case Scenario:

This team has been sunk by injuries for several years now, and at a certain point it stops being bad luck and becomes a serious red flag. Smith hasn’t played a full season since 2015. Ezekiel Elliott shows some warning signs of a running back burning out from heavy usage. And Prescott is already dealing with a troubling shoulder after a long recovery from his leg injury. I try not to dwell too much on health in this section, but the Cowboys are one team that feels almost destined for another catastrophic string of injuries.

Even if they stay healthy, there will be an awful lot of pressure on their offense to perform. And I’m still not super confident in the combination of Mike McCarthy and Kellen Moore to put their players in position to succeed. If they Cowboys win this division, it will be because their talent (especially at the quarterback position) is a step above their competition. And in the end even that may not be enough.

Player to Watch: Tyler Biadasz, C

Biadasz came into a tough situation last year. He was drafted out of Wisconsin to play center for the Cowboys, replacing another former Badger Travis Frederick who dominated at that position for six seasons before an early retirement. No one expected him to live up to that standard, but it was hoped that he could help stabilize the midpoint of an offensive line that has been Dallas’s strength for years. By the time Biadasz became a starter, however, they were already without Smith, and Martin went down a week later. Biadasz had a few games snapping to backup quarterbacks on a piecemeal offensive line, before he went down with an injury of his own that kept him out the rest of the year.

Things should be a lot easier for him this year, and he’ll be expected to step up in response. Keeping Prescott upright is the most important task the Cowboys have this season, and Biadasz will likely be expected to carry a big chunk of that calling out protection schemes for the entire line. He has the help he needs around him, and he showed some potential to be a high quality NFL starter when he was at Wisconsin.

Washington Football Team

Best Case Scenario:
Through the first half of 2020 the NFC East was an absolute garbage dump, before Washington won six of their last eight to claim the division and salvage some respectability. They did this on the back of a young defense that took a major step forward, averaging 14 points allowed over the second half of the season. That side of the ball should only be better with one more year under its belt, as Chase Young emerges as a legitimate superstar and they made a couple solid offseason additions with athletic rookie linebacker Jamin Davis and veteran free agent cornerback William Jackson.

If their defense continues its excellent play they won’t need much from the offense, but they’re set up to be better there this season too. Alex Smith was a good story a year ago, but he was also a pretty bad quarterback. Switching to Ryan Fitzpatrick is a clear upgrade, even if he has his limitations. Toss in Curtis Samuel to give them something other than Terry McLaurin in their passing game, and this offense could approach respectability, which is all they need to compete in this division.

Worst Case Scenario:

Washington won the division a year ago, but they still only finished 8-8. This isn’t a good team, and if the Cowboys stay healthy, there is a clear differential in talent. Ultimately the Football Team doesn’t really control its own destiny. They are going to finish with another middling record, and whether or not they compete in the division depends on how Dallas performs. They aren’t going to compete to win the NFC, though they might be able to sneak into wild card contention.

It is much harder to win with defense than it is to win with offense. To do so requires a steady offense with a quarterback who understands the situation and can avoid mistakes. That isn’t really Fitzpatrick’s style. He is going to have a couple games where he throws multiple backbreaking interceptions. And after letting reliable tackle Morgan Moses depart, Washington has some reason to be concerned along the offensive line. This could accentuate their offensive volatility, which is the last thing a team trying to win a lot of low-scoring games needs.

Player to Watch: Logan Thomas, TE

Thomas is one of the more fascinating stories in the NFL. A college quarterback, his road to this point has been very convoluted. He made brief appearances at quarterback with Arizona in 2014, before not playing at all in the NFL for the next two seasons. He then returned as a tight end in 2017, spending two years in Buffalo and one in Detroit and putting up a total of 35 receptions. He then exploded in his first year in Washington in 2020, with 72 catches for 670 yards and 6 touchdowns.

On a team with one of the thinnest receiving depth charts in the NFL, Thomas finished second in yards and led in receiving touchdowns. He was a real bright spot down the stretch and played a big role in their playoff push. Entering 2021 there are real expectations around him for the first time in his career, and whether he can live up to them will be an important factor in if this offense can be successful enough for them to win games.

 

Philadelphia Eagles

Best Case Scenario:
I don’t have high hopes for Jalen Hurts. I suppose there’s a scenario where he plays much better than he did a year ago, distributes the ball through this talented young receiving group, and punishes defenses with his legs. If that happens, maybe Philadelphia can get enough going on offense to push for a wild card spot. They added a handful of interesting veterans on defense, and their offensive line probably can’t be as banged up as it has been the past couple of years.

But ultimately the best thing for Philadelphia would probably not be a season that sees them win enough to let them convince themselves they are competitive. The last thing they need is to head into 2022 believing that the core of this roster is still strong. Their defense is still overly reliant on aging players. Hurts has given no indication that he is a long-term answer at quarterback. This team will need a total rebuild sometime soon, and the longer they put that off, the uglier things are going to get.

Worst Case Scenario:

Setting aside the long-term implications of a mediocre season, the worst case for just 2021 is a total collapse that sees them competing for the first overall selection. Hurts looked competent last year only compared to the quarterback he came in to replace, and now with the starting role handed to him he is likely going to be in way over his head. Devonta Smith is going to be a superstar on the outside, and I still have some hope for Jalen Reagor, but there are a lot of questions about this offensive line. If Hurts can’t stay comfortable in the pocket, he isn’t going to be able to get the ball into the hands of the most talented players on this offense.

Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham are still both very good players, but they are also both in their 30s, and together they weren’t enough to make this defense more than average a season ago. Philadelphia tried to add more reliable starters in free agency, but the best they were able to get was someone like Anthony Harris, who struggled mightily in 2020. If the players on the front line of this defense slip even a little, it will put a lot more pressure on an offense that isn’t set up to handle it.

Player to Watch: Josh Sweat, EDGE

The stars along this defense front are aging, but there are some younger pieces to like there as well. Derek Barnett hasn’t become the superstar they hoped they were getting when they selected him in the first round, but he’s still only 25 and has been a useful starter. Javon Hargrave brought versatile run stuffing and pass rushing ability when he came over from Pittsburgh a year ago. And perhaps the most intriguing player is Sweat, a former fourth round pick now entering his fourth season.

Sweat is a remarkable athlete who had some first round buzz in 2018, before sliding down the draft due to a combination of lack of college productivity and injury concerns. Those injury concerns have played out early in his career, as he’s ended two of his three seasons on injured reserve. These injuries have hindered his development as well, but when he’s found his way onto the field he has flashed the ability that made him a draft sleeper a couple years ago. He had six sacks in a rotational role last year, and every now and then he pulls off a pass rush that makes it easy to imagine him doing much more. If he can stay on the field and increase his role, he is the sort of young player who can leap forward to take up some of the slack left by the aging veterans.

New York Giants

Best Case Scenario:
The leap made by Josh Allen in Buffalo a year ago was a lot of fun, but it also complicates this kind of analysis. Because now we have to take into account the possibility that a physically gifted quarterback can be bad over his first two seasons, then suddenly emerge in his third year. I don’t think Daniel Jones will follow the same trajectory, and I expect that the Giants will head into 2022 looking for a new quarterback. But it is a possibility, and I suppose I should touch on it here.

There is a wide gulf between becoming an MVP candidate like Allen and continuing to be well below average as Jones has been over his first two seasons. If he has a more realistic upward trajectory, a performance as a middle of the road quarterback might be enough to make this team scrappily competitive. Saquon Barkley is healthy and finally ready to live up to the promise he showed his rookie year. The addition of Adoree Jackson gives the defense a splash of athleticism across from 2020 breakout James Bradberry. If their defense can elevate to a top ten level, and they can keep games low-scoring and shorten them by feeding Barkley, they might be able to win 7 or 8 games.

Worst Case Scenario:

Jones is bad, and he isn’t going to get any better. He has enough arm strength and athleticism to make occasional plays, but he doesn’t have the accuracy or the understanding of the game to be a consistent, above-average quarterback. He invites pressure, he doesn’t protect the ball, and any progress the offense makes will be despite him, not because of him.

Barkley is phenomenally gifted physically, but there are still limitations to his game that keep him from being the sort of running back who can carry an offense. Get him in space and he can wreck defenses, but the Giants don’t have the supporting cast or the play calling to let him take advantage of that. Their offensive line should be improved, but it still won’t be good enough to clear open holes when defenses stack eight defenders in the box. The Giants offense will spend most of the year slamming their heads against a wall, and their defense doesn’t have enough playmakers to steal more than a couple games. Things could go very bad for New York, and it wouldn’t shock me if they end up completely cleaning house of coach, general manager, and quarterback after a season that leaves them picking at the very top of the draft.

Player to Watch: Leonard Williams, DT

Williams has had a very interesting career trajectory. A top ten pick in 2015, he entered the league with expectations of being the next game-wrecking force on the defensive line. He is big, explosive, and strong—everything you could want from a defensive tackle. His rookie season wasn’t particularly impressive, but he made the Pro Bowl his second year as he accumulated seven sacks. And then he just kind of stagnated. He got caught up on a Jets team with other high draft picks along the defensive front, he was forced to play out of position as a defensive end, and he never really capitalized on his potential.

A lot of people raised eyebrows when the Giants traded a third-round selection for him midseason 2019. This was somewhat justified, since he was going to be a free agent and they would have had a chance to sign him at the end of the year anyway. They ended up having no choice but to give him a 3-year $63 million extension that was way more than he deserved. And he responded by absolutely living up to it. He finished top ten in the league with 11.5 sacks, most among defensive tackles who aren’t ancient Greek gods dropped onto a football field. He was even better with his peripherals, finishing third among all players in QB hits according to Pro Football Reference. He probably needs to repeat this performance to justify what the Giants have spent on him, but doing so would go a long way towards making this defense dynamic enough to elevate their lifeless offense.