2021 AFC South Preview

Here is the second of my division previews, hopping over to the AFC to look at what might currently be the messiest division in football.

Tennessee Titans Best Case Scenario:
The Titans won the division a year ago, then mostly held their ground while their main competition crumbled around them. They lost some valuable pieces of their coaching staff, but their roster is mostly unchanged from what it was a year ago, with the notable swap in of Julio Jones for Corey Davis as their number two receiver. They should cruise easily to a division title simply by maintaining their form from a year ago.

Beyond that, it’s still a little hard to project this team as a real contender in the AFC. The biggest thing holding them back remains their defense. There’s a chance they can take a leap forward this year, if Jeffrey Simmons and Harold Landry turn into real superstars on the line while new additions Bud Dupree and Caleb Farley provide an immediate impact. But I’m skeptical they can put it all together on the defensive side this year, and I’m betting they’ll have to settle for another playoff exit yet again.

Worst Case Scenario:

Ryan Tannehill has had a remarkable turnaround in his two years in Tennessee, performing like a top five quarterback since he took over as a starter. But there’s still a vague sense that some of this is fraudulent, propelled by the excellent surroundings he found himself in. He arrived on a Tennessee team with a quality offensive line, an elite running game, and an emerging star at receiver. Most of those things are still there, but they’ll be playing under a new offensive coordinator, and there’s a scenario where things fall apart for them on that side of the ball.

Depth is the biggest concern. Their number three wide receiver is Josh Reynolds, and their number two running back is Jeremy McNichols. Derrick Henry is a rare physical specimen, but he’s also absorbed an insane number of carries over the past two seasons. In the past 15 years there have been only six other running backs hit 350 carries in a season. Those backs averaged 213 carries and 904 yards the following year. Injuries are often random and difficult to predict, but Henry is as big a red flag as they come, and if he goes down, this offense is going to have to radically reinvent itself overnight. They’re probably good enough to do this and still win the AFC South, but any hope of competing beyond the regular season will go out the window.

Player to Watch: Anthony Firkser, TE

Tight end is a crucial position in the sort of play-action heavy offense the Titans love to run. A year ago Firkser combined with Jonnu Smith to produce 80 receptions for 835 yards as the number three and four receivers on the team. Smith also found the endzone eight times as their top receiving threat in the red zone.

Smith is in New England now, which means most of the burden of the receiving tight end now falls on Firkser. As I mentioned above, the Titans are hardly deep at the receiver position, and Henry isn’t much of a threat in the passing game. They need someone who can give their offense easy yards underneath while Jones and AJ Brown tear defenses apart farther down the field. I haven’t really seen anything from Firkser that convinces me he can be what this offense needs, but he has the best opportunity out of anyone on this roster.

 

Indianapolis Colts

Best Case Scenario:
The best case scenario would be that they are able to coax Philip Rivers out of retirement and try again where they fell short a season ago. But at this point that seems unlikely, so they’ll have to settle for some combination of Carson Wentz, Jacob Eason, and Sam Ehlinger at quarterback. Wentz is the only one with any real upside, but he was also an unrivaled catastrophe the last time we saw him on a football field. And he’s now dealing with a foot injury that will only hinder his ability to make plays behind a banged up offensive line.

If Wentz can somehow find his way back to competent quarterback play, there may be enough pieces in place on this roster to push for a playoff spot. They will need Jonathan Taylor to sustain the high level he was playing at to end 2020, and contributions from a couple of their many unproven young wide receivers. The defense has been solid for a couple years, and if they can reach that level again with some good breaks on offense, this can be an above average team.

Worst Case Scenario:

This team is a couple small breaks away from a total collapse. If Quenton Nelson’s foot injury lingers, and if Eric Fisher can’t make it back healthy to start the season, this offensive line could quickly fall to pieces after being a stellar unit a season ago. None of their quarterbacks is equipped to play behind weak protection, and if they can’t keep pressure out of their faces this offense will get very ugly very fast.

The defense could suffer a similar fate. Defense is notoriously unpredictable from year-to-year, and on paper Indianapolis doesn’t look that intimidating. They have elite players in DeForest Buckner and Darius Leonard, but both play positions of lesser impact, leaving them weak at crucial positions like pass rush and cornerback. Justin Houston departed this offseason after finishing second on the team with eight sacks last year, and I’m skeptical they can count on the sort of consistency on the back end they got from Xavier Rhodes a year ago. This defense is set up for a slide, and if that coincides with offensive struggles, this team could be in the running for a top five draft selection.

Player to Watch: Braden Smith, OT

With the retirement of Anthony Costanzoand the injury to Quenton Nelson that could cause him to miss a couple weeks to start the season, the line that was once the strength of Indianapolis’s offense is now looking a bit shaky. Ryan Kelly will have to take extra responsibility to hold down the interior, but on the edges they will be forced to lean even more on the fourth year player Smith.

A second-round selection in 2018, Smith has been a solid starter for his first three years, even if he has yet to justify the $70 million contract he just signed. He’s been a useful piece as the fourth best lineman on his team, as part of a unit that has made his life easy. It might not be as easy this year though, and he's going to be expected to bear additional responsiblities now that he’s one of the ten highest paid tackles in the NFL. One of many problems Wentz had in Philadelphia was that the excellent protection he had his first few seasons broke down as the Eagles offensive line suffered from departures and injuries. The same pattern appears to be repeating itself in Indianapolis, and the Colts desperately need someone to step up and save their offense.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars

Best Case Scenario:
Jacksonville is going to put Trevor Lawrence on the field as soon as possible, and their season will depend entirely on how he performs. It doesn’t even really matter how many games they win. If he looks like a star, the Jaguars will head into 2022 excited for what is to come. If he struggles, panic will start to simmer with a fan base that hasn’t seen anything go their way in a very long time.

That said, I can envision a scenario where they actually do push for the playoffs this year. It will require a lot more than Lawrence getting off to a hot start though. They will need the other young players on their roster to step up as well. DJ Chark, Laviska Shenault, and Travis Etienne need to be impact threats in the passing game as Urban Meyer implements his new system. They need a star performance on defense from Josh Allen and some contribution from CJ Henderson and K’Lavon Chaisson. This team has the sort of young talent that could explode and become good at any time, but it’s hard to bet on it until I’ve actually seen it.

Worst Case Scenario:

A disaster of a performance or an injury to Lawrence is the main thing the Jaguars have to be holding their breath about. They don’t want a repeat of Joe Burrow or Tua Tagovailoa from 2020, leaving them headed into next year with uncertainty still at the position. A failure of their other young players to develop would also be tough, but there’s a sense that with a new coach and GM they’ve already written off some of their recent selections as failures, so they won’t exactly be devasted if things go poorly on that front.

Where they should really be concerned is with Meyer. For the first time in his life he is coaching in the NFL, after years of people speculating that his style and his schemes weren’t suited to that level. He’s done a decent job of surrounding himself with assistants who know the league, but there is still a lot of uncertainty about how this will play out. Will he be able to adapt his schemes to the professional level, or will things prove simplistic enough for NFL defenses to tear apart? Will he connect with players, or will his style rub the wrong way applied to adult men? Meyer could turn out to be a genius hire, or it could be an utter catastrophe, a decision that wastes the first few years of Lawrence’s career.

Player to Watch: Brandon Linder, C

Linder has quietly put together a very good career through seven years in Jacksonville, but he’ll have a bit more on his plate headed into 2021. For the second time in his career he’ll be snapping to a rookie selected in the top three, this time as a veteran presence rather than the second year player he was when Blake Bortles debuted.

Lawrence is way ahead of most rookies in terms of his understanding of the game, but that still doesn’t mean he’s ready to completely command an NFL offense. In cases like this, a veteran center who can help bear the burden of some of the protection calls is an absolutely invaluable asset. If Linder can help stabilize the line, that will make everything easier for Lawrence, both in trying to learn his part of the offense and in avoiding getting killed when he gets out onto the field.

 

Houston Texans

Best Case Scenario:
I don’t even know where to begin with this one. Like what possible good can come out of Houston’s season? Maybe Deshaun Watson’s legal issues magically go away, but all that will mean is that he’ll be more vocal with his trade demands. Maybe some young players step up and give them hope for the future, but I’m not even sure who that would be. Nico Collins? Justin Reid? Maybe Shaq Lawson bounces back after flaming out in Buffalo. Otherwise this roster is basically just a list of players clinging to the NFL with the only team that still has any interest in employing them.

I suppose the best case is that they at least find a way to start over again in 2022. See if they can salvage some value with a trade of Watson, lose as many games as possible, then load up with young talent over the next couple of years. Maybe give themselves a chance to be competitive again in 2024. Because I don’t see a realistic path to anything happening before then.

Worst Case Scenario:

If that’s the best case scenario, then the worst case scenario must be extraordinarily grim. Except that I really don’t think that’s the case. The worst case scenario isn’t that much worse, because there isn’t that much worse to go. Maybe the Texans make a mess of the season, get no young talent involved, and end up bouncing between Watson, Tyrod Taylor, and Davis Mills at quarterback with no clear answers headed forward.

And is that really any different from what we’re already expecting? The Texans are going to be bad. They’re going to be boring. They’re going to cause headaches on and off the field. There’s really no other way I can envision this season playing out for them. It’s both the best case, and the worst case. It’s inevitable.

Player to Watch: Justin Reid, S

Trying to find a player to select here is as grim as trying to write the two sections above. This team is loaded with players like Brandin Cooks, David Johnson, Bradley Roby, and Mark Ingram, players that I have no interest in talking about. It’s hard to find any interesting young players who might emerge on a team that has made a habit of paying two dollars for every one in all the trades they’ve done over the past few years.

Reid may be the lone exception. He was a third round pick in 2018, but he was also Houston’s first pick that year, since their first and second round selections were sent to Cleveland to acquire Watson and ditch Brock Osweiler respectively. Entering his fourth year, Reid is hardly is a star, but he’s at least a competent starter under the age of 25, which makes him an oddity on this roster.