2021 AFC North Preview

 Baltimore Ravens

Best Case Scenario:
Innovation tends to move in cycles in the NFL. A creative scheme emerges on offense and lights the league on fire, only to be put out once defenses start adjusting. But given enough time, the offense adapts to the response and finds success again. This is what Baltimore is counting on happening in 2021. Two years ago their offense was the most dynamic in the NFL, with an almost unstoppable ground game powered by Lamar Jackson. Last year they were still good, but they hit a few more bumps in the road, somewhat due to injuries and somewhat due to new challenges thrown their way by opposing defenses.

Baltimore has one of the best coaching staffs in the league, and they’ve had an offseason to study where things went wrong a year ago. Jackson remains a uniquely dangerous weapon, and their offense is positioned to be very good once again. Ronnie Stanley is returning from injury, and they added Kevin Zeitler and Alejandro Villanueva on the offensive line. They’re deeper at receiver than they’ve been in recent years, with Sammy Watkins and rookie Rashod Bateman to complement the speed of Marquise Brown. Toss in their always reliable defense, and they can be as good as anyone in the AFC.

Worst Case Scenario:

The Ravens are a playoff team in just about any scenario, but there are a few red flags that could keep them from living up to their full potential. On offense the loss of JK Dobbins to a torn ACL could have major impacts on how they call the game. This is a team that wants to run the ball as many times as possible, and over the past few years that has meant feeding a two or three deep lineup of running backs. With Dobbins out, the only proven back on their roster is Gus Edwards, and he alone can’t bear the load of their rushing attack.

If Baltimore can’t run the ball as much as they want to, they’re going to have to find a way to generate a more consistent passing game than they’ve had the past few years. Jackson can absolutely throw the ball at a high level, but he experiences just enough lapses to cause this offense to stall out at times. The additional receiving talent will help, as will the improvements on the offensive line. But at a certain point they may need him to be able to drop back and reliably find and hit open receivers. If he gets hot, he can still carry this team with his arm. But he also makes enough mistakes that he could sink them.

Player to Watch: Ty’Son Williams, RB

Baltimore is going to try to find some more depth at running back. They’ll likely peruse the free agent market, but there aren’t a lot of good options out there on the street. Their top returning running back after Edwards is Justice Hill, whose 60 yards last year were fewer than wide receiver Devin Duvernay and backup quarterback Robert Griffin III. Baltimore is very shallow when it comes to proven running backs, but they are a team well suited for someone surprising to emerge.

Williams is a flyer, but he has as good a chance as anyone of being that breakout player. After a college career that saw him bounce between three different schools and suffer a torn ACL his senior year, he ended up making the Ravens practice squad last year as an undrafted free agent. Now with the season about to start, his performance in the preseason seems like it may have earned him the second running back role. He doesn’t have much of a track record, but he has a strong, stout body that can handle a lot of contact between the tackles, potentially opening things up for Jackson to make plays on the outside.

 

Cleveland Browns

Best Case Scenario:
Last year Cleveland finally escaped from the sewer they’d spent the past two decades in, and now they’re set up to do it all over again. They returned all of their important starters on offense, and they will actually be giving Baker Mayfield some consistency with their scheme for the first time in his career. Last year they put together a quality offense despite Nick Chubb missing four games and Odell Beckham missing nine. It’s hard to be too confident saying they’ll get more out of these injury-plagued players in 2021, but if they do this offense could be something special.

The big weakness for Cleveland a year ago was their defense. They have the first couple pieces they need in stars Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward, but they were desperately lacking in supporting pieces. They attacked this in the offseason, signing quality veterans Malik Jackson, Jadeveon Clowney, Anthony Walker, and John Johnson III. None of these players is a big needle-mover on their own, but together they fill out a unit that suddenly has the potential to be a championship quality defense.

Worst Case Scenario:

There are some red flags from last year that suggest this team may be due for some regression. Despite winning 11 games, they actually finished with a negative point differential, and were just middle of the pack in most advanced stats. Most of this was due to a miserable defense, and that side of the ball is the easiest to see a big year over year change, especially with all the free agents they added. But expecting them to repeat their record from last year is counting on defensive improvement, which isn’t guaranteed for a unit still figuring out their chemistry.

I’m also still not completely sold on Mayfield and this passing attack. The Browns are extremely thin at wide receiver. Jarvis Landry is good at what he does, but he’s much better suited as a third wide receiver picking defenses apart in the slot. Beckham hasn’t been reliable or healthy in years, and if he goes down again, suddenly Mayfield is going to have trouble finding anywhere to go with the football. If this happens, he could start forcing plays down the field and revert to the player who threw 21 interceptions in 2019. The Browns are good enough to win some games even if he’s throwing the ball away, but not against the top teams they’ll have to face come playoff time.

Player to Watch: Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR

As I mentioned above, Cleveland doesn’t have a lot to get excited about past the top two pass-catchers on their depth chart. Rashard Higgins is a fine depth piece but not someone you want to rely on. Austin Hooper should hopefully be more useful after a disappointing first season with Cleveland. And while Kareem Hunt brings some useful versatility as a receiver, Chubb offers basically nothing in that part of the game.

The one player who could end up playing a major role in the fate of this offense is Peoples-Jones. Peoples-Jones never quite lived up to his potential at Michigan, but his physical tools are off the charts, and they were enough to make him a sixth-round pick in 2020. He didn’t see a lot of playing time as a rookie, but when he did he was explosive, averaging over 20 yards per reception and making some spectacular leaping grabs. He’ll be a much bigger part of the offense this season, and if he can develop into more than a situational deep threat, he’ll go a long way towards closing the biggest hole in Cleveland’s roster.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers

Best Case Scenario:
Pittsburgh is coming off of a fascinating 2020 season that makes it hard to predict what exactly they’ll be in 2021. They started last year with 11 straight victories, only to lose five of their final six games on the way to an uneventful playoff exit. They fell apart down the stretch thanks to an offense that became totally lifeless. They couldn’t run the ball, and they didn’t attack down the field, so defenses were content playing tight to the line to disrupt their timing passing game.

Pittsburgh changed offensive coordinators this offseason, and there is hope this may kick their offense back to life. Another year removed from his elbow injury, Ben Roethlisberger may still have the tools needed to lead a high octane offense. They have plenty of talent at wide receiver, and they added Najee Harris with their first round pick to revitalize their rushing attack. And the truth is, the Steelers don’t actually need that much from their offense. They have the best defense in the NFL, and even an average offense will get them in playoff contention. If they somehow manage to pull together one last run of elite quarterback play from Roethlisberger, they may even have an outside shot of competing for the Super Bowl.

Worst Case Scenario:

That last part is a very big if. Roethlisberger has been wildly inconsistent for several years now, and it’s hard to know just how far he has fallen off physically. His down the field accuracy was gone even before they started losing games a year ago, and if he still can’t stretch the field it won’t take defenses long to adjust once again. Pittsburgh’s offensive line is a major concern as well, and it’s likely that Roethlisberger is going to take his usual pounding and wear down as the season goes along once again.

The defense and the coaching still do give the Steelers a pretty decent floor. Mike Tomlin has never had a losing record in his career, and while I wouldn’t be surprised if this year broke the streak, I still expect they’ll get to at least seven or eight wins. Their defense has some questions at cornerback, but with TJ Watt, Cameron Heyward, Stephon Tuitt, and Minkah Fitzpatrick, it’s hard to imagine them not being at least a top ten unit once again.

Player to Watch: Zach Banner, OT

A former college All-American, Banner has had a winding road to becoming an NFL starter. He was selected in the fourth round in 2017 by Indianapolis but never even made it out of training camp. After spending the next two years bouncing around the league, he found a home as a backup tackle in Pittsburgh. Last offseason the Steelers were very excited by his potential as he moved into the expected starting lineup, only for him to tear his ACL in the first game.

He’s healthy now, and the Steelers will be hoping for a lot from him as part of a rebuilt offensive line. The only starter they return from the unit that started most of last year is Chukwuma Okorafor, and even he is switching from right tackle to left. They need their offensive line to be at least competent if they’re going to get what they hope from Roethlisberger and Harris. That seems like a stretch at this point, but a breakout performance from Banner could give them a chance.

 

Cincinnati Bengals

Best Case Scenario:
If the Bengals can keep Joe Burrow upright through the entire season, that will be an improvement on 2020. If he actually looks good, even better. He was solid when he was on the field a year ago, in circumstances that were just dreadful, with a top wide receiver who didn’t want to be there and an offensive line that couldn’t block a stiff breeze. Things are a bit better this year, if still not great, and hopefully he’ll take enough of a step forward to make them feel good headed into 2022.

I suppose there is a chance they could sneak into the wild card conversation. If Burrow breaks out, if their talented receiving corps is ready to contribute immediately, if they can get something from their offensive line. I’m not sure we can really hope for anything better than mediocrity from the defense, but maybe the additions of Trey Hendrickson and Trae Waynes will help them slow down a few passing attacks.

Worst Case Scenario:

Zac Taylor wasn’t given much to work with over his first two years, but he really hasn’t done anything to help matters either. It wouldn't be the worst thing if the Bengals finish with another dismal record this year, as it would encourage them take another run at hiring a new coach. Provided Burrow still looks at least promising. If he struggles, then none of this matters anyway.

The offensive line is still the major concern. Jonah Williams looked decent in his first year as a starter and should hopefully be even better this year. The acquisition of Riley Reiff should help stabilize the right tackle spot as well. But the inside three were their biggest weakness last year, and they haven’t made any changes to that unit headed into 2021. If they can’t give Burrow at least some space to work with, he will struggle as he returns from his knee injury.

Player to Watch: Sam Hubbard, DE

The Bengals don’t have many expensive veterans on their team, which means it really doesn’t hurt that much that they gave $10 million a year to Hubbard as he reached the end of his rookie deal. They’ve drafted extremely poorly in recent years, and they couldn’t really afford to let one of the few viable starters they’ve found walk away as a free agent. It’s still a lot of money to give to someone, and Hubbard is likely going to have to step up his performance to justify it this year.

Hubbard is an excellent run defender, but defensive ends get paid to go after the quarterback, and through three seasons he hasn’t shown an ability to consistently do this. He flashed some in 2019 with 8.5 sacks, but this oversold him a bit as he had only 13 QB hits, not even in the top 50 in the league. Last year his sack total over-reverted to only two, which simply isn’t good enough for a starting defensive end. With Hendrickson added on the opposite side and with an offense that should hopefully keep games more competitive, he’s in a much better position in 2021, and he’ll be expected to improve his production.

2021 AFC East Preview

 Buffalo Bills

Best Case Scenario:
Buffalo leapt forward a year ago to a berth in the AFC Championship Game, and now the question is whether they have what it takes to go another step farther and become Super Bowl contenders. The big difference a year ago was the emergence of Josh Allen as a star quarterback, and while I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect him to improve even further, there is a chance the offense as a whole could be even better. They managed to retain offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, they have another year for Allen to develop chemistry with Stefon Diggs, and they should hopefully get more from their running game than they did in 2020.

The best chance for improvement on this team is on the defensive side of the ball. Two years ago their defense was strong enough to carry a mediocre offense to the postseason, before regressing to become an average unit in 2020. There’s no single explanation for why they declined a year ago, but if they can find a way to bounce back they have the potential for top five units on both sides of the ball. They have an intriguing collection of young talent along the front four, and while I’m not personally a fan of their preferred type of edge rushers—big, strong, and stiff—if they can get some contribution from players like AJ Epenesa, Gregory Rousseau, or Boogie Basham, they could put together something really special.

Worst Case Scenario:

You always have to hold your breath when a player makes a massive leap forward like Allen did last year. There’s no reason to believe that it wasn’t genuine, other than the two years of performance we saw before. I don’t think it will happen, but there’s always a chance that his mechanical changes regress or he begins to force balls into places they shouldn’t go, or something else goes wrong to sink a player who still only has one year of high-level performance under his belt.

If Allen performs this year like he did a year ago, then this team should be fine. The AFC East could be a little feistier than most people expect, but the Bills should still be a playoff caliber team no matter what. It would be nice if they could develop some more depth at wide receiver, especially with Diggs’s injury history. But with what they have built and with the coaching staff they have in place, I’d be surprised if the Bills weren’t playing in January.

Player to Watch: Cody Ford, OG

Buffalo should be the model franchise going forward when it comes to how to build around a young quarterback. There are some more obvious pieces that helped Allen’s development—the trade for a star veteran receiver, the consistency and quality of the coaching staff—but one other thing they’ve done well is to build an offensive line ahead of him.

Buffalo hasn’t invested a ton in this position. None of their starters is a former first round pick. Their biggest expenditure was the four year $45 million deal they gave center Mitch Morse. They got a couple cheap veteran free agents in Jon Feliciano and Daryl Williams, and added a pair of second round picks in Dion Dawkins and Cody Ford. Of these players, Ford is probably the most interesting. Still just entering his third year, he’s had a bit of a rocky first two seasons that have flashed moments of potential of him becoming something more. He has the tools to elevate his level of play into a high quality guard, which would make Allen even more comfortable operating this offense.

 

Miami Dolphins

Best Case Scenario:
I still believe in Tua Tagovailoa. I expect that by the end of 2021 the Dolphins will feel perfectly happy to have him as their quarterback going forward. It’s just a matter of how quickly he comes along this year. If he gets off to a fast start, this team has the firepower to keep up with Buffalo or at least claim a wild card spot. If he struggles early before getting in sync with the rest of this still-developing offense, it could take until the end of the year for them to go on a hot streak.

Even if the offense takes a while to come together, this defense has the potential to take a leap forward to the level of the league’s elites. They have the best cornerback room in the NFL, and they just added a high upside pass rusher in rookie Jaelen Phillips. Stopping the pass is the most important thing in the NFL, and this team is set up to do just that.

Worst Case Scenario:

Even if this defense carries the Dolphins through a struggling offense to a playoff spot, it won’t be much consolation for their long-term hopes. The future of this team lives and dies with Tagovailoa, and what we’ve seen of him so far on the field hasn’t inspired much hope. He should have everything he needs to succeed in the NFL—a talented receiver group loaded with speed, a couple gifted tight ends, and high draft selections on the offensive line. I’m a little wary of the offensive coordinator duo of Eric Studesville and George Godsey, but the talent is certainly there.

The Dolphins have the foundation of a team with Super Bowl aspirations in the next couple years. I’ve been very impressed with what Brian Flores has done over his first two years, and they have both proven veterans and young talent poised to emerge. The biggest remaining questionmark is the quarterback. The AFC is loaded with talented quarterbacks on rookie contracts, and for the next few years it’s going to be difficult to compete without one of those. The Dolphins are as well set up as anyone to build around their star. They just can’t afford him to turn out to not actually be a star.

Player to Watch: Eric Rowe, S

Rowe has had a bit of a journeyman career, but he seems to have found his home in Miami. A second-round pick in 2015, he struggled as a cornerback for his first year in Philadelphia, before being traded to New England and finding mixed success bouncing between cornerback and safety. But Flores must have seen something he liked, because he brought Rowe with him when he took the Miami head coaching job, and Rowe has started almost every game at safety since.

Miami’s defense leans on aggressive man coverage from its cornerbacks, which is how Xavien Howard put up an astounding 10 interceptions a year ago. But this sort of scheme only works if you have reliable options on the back end to keep mistakes from turning into disasters. Rowe isn’t a major playmaker himself—he has only three interceptions in the past two years—but he can be counted on to be in position and to make tackles to keep the defense on the field so players like Howard and Byron Jones can attack the ball in the air.

New England Patriots

Best Case Scenario:
This is a little strange to wrap my head around, because the best case for New England this year may not be the best case for them long-term. I think the best chance of them making the postseason this year is with Cam Newton at quarterback, heading up a run-heavy attack that overpowers opposing defenses with a massive offensive line and more tight ends than they can handle. This philosophy didn’t really work a year ago, but they’ve added talent in the offseason, and they were actually somewhat competitive in 2020 when Newton was at full strength.

Of course, I think we’re past the days of being able to count on Newton being healthy and functional for an entire season. And if they do try to build their offense around him and he goes down, they’ll have to redesign on the fly to accommodate Mac Jones. They are going to have to do that eventually anyway, and I’m always an advocate of getting highly drafted rookie quarterbacks on the field as soon as possible. They may have some slim chance of slipping into the playoffs if things work out with Newton. But I think the best outcome for them might be to let this team struggle through the season as they figure out what they have with Jones.

Worst Case Scenario:

Bill Belichick is the greatest coach of all time, but he remains a perplexingly bad evaluator of talent. I liked the moves he made adding tight ends Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, even if they were both slight overpays. I cannot imagine why he gave multi-year deals to Kendrick Bourne and Nelson Agholor in an absolutely dry wide receiver market. Two years after spending a first round pick on N’Keal Harry, it seems like he just doesn’t understand what makes a good wide receiver.

Belichick is enough to will this roster to six or seven wins, but at a certain point talent does need to take over. And I just don’t see it with the Patriots. They have a good offensive line and a very good secondary. And outside of that, maybe their defense will improve from getting Dont’a Hightower and Kyle Van Noy back? Maybe the tight ends open up their offense again? Or maybe they drift through the season without a clear identity on offense as they bounce between the two most opposite quarterbacks imaginable, and without any clear plans for how they will find a passing game going forward.

Player to Watch: Damien Harris, RB

With the trade of disappointing former first round pick Sony Michel, it looks like the Patriots are embracing a true running back by committee approach. This is hardly a new thing for them, though in the past they did this in the background of a pass-first offense led by Tom Brady. Now they will try to build a run-heavy attack with a rotating door of running backs behind their line.

Of their backs, Harris is probably the most interesting. Harris is used to sharing the workload in a backfield, as in college he never averaged more than ten carries a game. The heaviest workload he’s ever seen was last year when he had 137 carries in ten games, hardly Eddie George numbers. But he has been efficient whenever he’s gotten the opportunity, averaging 6.4 yards per carry at Alabama and 5.0 last year with the Patriots. I don’t think he’s suddenly going to morph into this offense’s bellcow, especially since he still contributes basically nothing as a receiver out of the backfield. But this team is going to lean heavily on their running game, and it’s good that they have one back who could conceivably swallow twenty carries in a game if they need him to.

New York Jets

Best Case Scenario:
The Jets are still a long way from being competitive, but they’re at least set up now to start building something for the future. Zach Wilson has been the undisputed starter from the moment he was drafted, and he’ll be as prepared for the season as any rookie quarterback this year. His supporting cast isn’t going to blow anyone away, but it’s better than it was a season ago. Corey Davis is a serviceable top receiving option, and the combination of Elijah Moore and Denzel Mims gives them a couple of young developmental options.

The Jets aren’t going to be competitive this year, so the most important thing is to protect their young quarterback. Wilson does some things very well, but handling pressure isn’t one of them. He gets spooked easily and bails out of the pocket if he senses any hint of pressure, which means they need to make certain he always has a good pocket to work from. They certainly have invested heavily in the line, with recent first round selections Mekhi Becton and Alijah Vera-Tucker, along with free agent addition Morgan Moses. This offense will have its struggles, but it should improve as the season goes along to at least make them interesting by the end of the year.

Worst Case Scenario:

Becton and Vera-Tucker are still extremely young, and both are better equipped for run blocking than pass protection. No doubt the Jets want to lean heavily on the running game to support their young quarterback, but they still don’t have much to work with in the backfield. Tevin Coleman and Michael Carter are two backs I’d love having as part of the rotation to offer versatility in passing situations, but neither is the sort I’d want to be counting on to generate consistent yardage on first and second down.

The Jets are pretty talent-starved on defense as well, especially with the brutal preseason injury to Carl Lawson. It isn’t hard to imagine a lot of games getting out of hand very quickly. If they can’t hold teams off the scoreboard and can’t earn easy yards on the ground, they’ll end up in a lot of situations where they have no choice but to drop back and pass. This will allow defenses to attack them where they’re weakest, with pure pass rush that will fluster Wilson and could prevent him from showing off what he’s capable of this year. 

Player to Watch: CJ Mosley, LB

It’s difficult to measure the impact of an inside linebacker. On the one hand, Mosley is a somewhat limited player—a dominant run defender who is inconsistent in pass coverage. He certainly isn’t worth the $85 million contract the Jets handed to him in 2019. But after he opted out in 2020, we’ll have a chance to see just how important he is as he returns to this defense.

On an elite unit someone with Mosley’s weaknesses could be a vulnerability to exploit, but the Jets defense has so many vulnerabilities that this one doesn't really matter. They don’t have much talent, and they have even less experience. Having a veteran in the middle could give them a huge boost. Simply being in the right places and making the right reads could help elevate them from terrible to merely bad, which might be able to limit the blowouts they find themselves in.

2021 NFC East Preview

Dallas Cowboys Best Case Scenario:

The Cowboys were only 1-3 when Dak Prescott went down a year ago, but I still think if he’d stayed healthy they would have coasted to a comfortable division title. Their offense was firing at an absolutely insane level to start the season. They were averaging over 30 points a game, and Prescott rattled off three straight games of over 450 yards passing. And they should only be better this year, as CeeDee Lamb gets more involved with their offense and they (hopefully) get more than 12 games combined from Tyron Smith and Zack Martin.

I don’t have high hopes for this defense, but if the offense runs at the level it’s capable of, the defense needs to simply avoid being a catastrophe to make them the favorites in this division. If Micah Parsons can make some splash plays, if they get improvement from Trevon Diggs at the back end, if they cobble together some sort of pass rush, they can push towards a league average unit. And if they do better than that, they have a chance to compete with the top teams in the NFC.

Worst Case Scenario:

This team has been sunk by injuries for several years now, and at a certain point it stops being bad luck and becomes a serious red flag. Smith hasn’t played a full season since 2015. Ezekiel Elliott shows some warning signs of a running back burning out from heavy usage. And Prescott is already dealing with a troubling shoulder after a long recovery from his leg injury. I try not to dwell too much on health in this section, but the Cowboys are one team that feels almost destined for another catastrophic string of injuries.

Even if they stay healthy, there will be an awful lot of pressure on their offense to perform. And I’m still not super confident in the combination of Mike McCarthy and Kellen Moore to put their players in position to succeed. If they Cowboys win this division, it will be because their talent (especially at the quarterback position) is a step above their competition. And in the end even that may not be enough.

Player to Watch: Tyler Biadasz, C

Biadasz came into a tough situation last year. He was drafted out of Wisconsin to play center for the Cowboys, replacing another former Badger Travis Frederick who dominated at that position for six seasons before an early retirement. No one expected him to live up to that standard, but it was hoped that he could help stabilize the midpoint of an offensive line that has been Dallas’s strength for years. By the time Biadasz became a starter, however, they were already without Smith, and Martin went down a week later. Biadasz had a few games snapping to backup quarterbacks on a piecemeal offensive line, before he went down with an injury of his own that kept him out the rest of the year.

Things should be a lot easier for him this year, and he’ll be expected to step up in response. Keeping Prescott upright is the most important task the Cowboys have this season, and Biadasz will likely be expected to carry a big chunk of that calling out protection schemes for the entire line. He has the help he needs around him, and he showed some potential to be a high quality NFL starter when he was at Wisconsin.

Washington Football Team

Best Case Scenario:
Through the first half of 2020 the NFC East was an absolute garbage dump, before Washington won six of their last eight to claim the division and salvage some respectability. They did this on the back of a young defense that took a major step forward, averaging 14 points allowed over the second half of the season. That side of the ball should only be better with one more year under its belt, as Chase Young emerges as a legitimate superstar and they made a couple solid offseason additions with athletic rookie linebacker Jamin Davis and veteran free agent cornerback William Jackson.

If their defense continues its excellent play they won’t need much from the offense, but they’re set up to be better there this season too. Alex Smith was a good story a year ago, but he was also a pretty bad quarterback. Switching to Ryan Fitzpatrick is a clear upgrade, even if he has his limitations. Toss in Curtis Samuel to give them something other than Terry McLaurin in their passing game, and this offense could approach respectability, which is all they need to compete in this division.

Worst Case Scenario:

Washington won the division a year ago, but they still only finished 8-8. This isn’t a good team, and if the Cowboys stay healthy, there is a clear differential in talent. Ultimately the Football Team doesn’t really control its own destiny. They are going to finish with another middling record, and whether or not they compete in the division depends on how Dallas performs. They aren’t going to compete to win the NFC, though they might be able to sneak into wild card contention.

It is much harder to win with defense than it is to win with offense. To do so requires a steady offense with a quarterback who understands the situation and can avoid mistakes. That isn’t really Fitzpatrick’s style. He is going to have a couple games where he throws multiple backbreaking interceptions. And after letting reliable tackle Morgan Moses depart, Washington has some reason to be concerned along the offensive line. This could accentuate their offensive volatility, which is the last thing a team trying to win a lot of low-scoring games needs.

Player to Watch: Logan Thomas, TE

Thomas is one of the more fascinating stories in the NFL. A college quarterback, his road to this point has been very convoluted. He made brief appearances at quarterback with Arizona in 2014, before not playing at all in the NFL for the next two seasons. He then returned as a tight end in 2017, spending two years in Buffalo and one in Detroit and putting up a total of 35 receptions. He then exploded in his first year in Washington in 2020, with 72 catches for 670 yards and 6 touchdowns.

On a team with one of the thinnest receiving depth charts in the NFL, Thomas finished second in yards and led in receiving touchdowns. He was a real bright spot down the stretch and played a big role in their playoff push. Entering 2021 there are real expectations around him for the first time in his career, and whether he can live up to them will be an important factor in if this offense can be successful enough for them to win games.

 

Philadelphia Eagles

Best Case Scenario:
I don’t have high hopes for Jalen Hurts. I suppose there’s a scenario where he plays much better than he did a year ago, distributes the ball through this talented young receiving group, and punishes defenses with his legs. If that happens, maybe Philadelphia can get enough going on offense to push for a wild card spot. They added a handful of interesting veterans on defense, and their offensive line probably can’t be as banged up as it has been the past couple of years.

But ultimately the best thing for Philadelphia would probably not be a season that sees them win enough to let them convince themselves they are competitive. The last thing they need is to head into 2022 believing that the core of this roster is still strong. Their defense is still overly reliant on aging players. Hurts has given no indication that he is a long-term answer at quarterback. This team will need a total rebuild sometime soon, and the longer they put that off, the uglier things are going to get.

Worst Case Scenario:

Setting aside the long-term implications of a mediocre season, the worst case for just 2021 is a total collapse that sees them competing for the first overall selection. Hurts looked competent last year only compared to the quarterback he came in to replace, and now with the starting role handed to him he is likely going to be in way over his head. Devonta Smith is going to be a superstar on the outside, and I still have some hope for Jalen Reagor, but there are a lot of questions about this offensive line. If Hurts can’t stay comfortable in the pocket, he isn’t going to be able to get the ball into the hands of the most talented players on this offense.

Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham are still both very good players, but they are also both in their 30s, and together they weren’t enough to make this defense more than average a season ago. Philadelphia tried to add more reliable starters in free agency, but the best they were able to get was someone like Anthony Harris, who struggled mightily in 2020. If the players on the front line of this defense slip even a little, it will put a lot more pressure on an offense that isn’t set up to handle it.

Player to Watch: Josh Sweat, EDGE

The stars along this defense front are aging, but there are some younger pieces to like there as well. Derek Barnett hasn’t become the superstar they hoped they were getting when they selected him in the first round, but he’s still only 25 and has been a useful starter. Javon Hargrave brought versatile run stuffing and pass rushing ability when he came over from Pittsburgh a year ago. And perhaps the most intriguing player is Sweat, a former fourth round pick now entering his fourth season.

Sweat is a remarkable athlete who had some first round buzz in 2018, before sliding down the draft due to a combination of lack of college productivity and injury concerns. Those injury concerns have played out early in his career, as he’s ended two of his three seasons on injured reserve. These injuries have hindered his development as well, but when he’s found his way onto the field he has flashed the ability that made him a draft sleeper a couple years ago. He had six sacks in a rotational role last year, and every now and then he pulls off a pass rush that makes it easy to imagine him doing much more. If he can stay on the field and increase his role, he is the sort of young player who can leap forward to take up some of the slack left by the aging veterans.

New York Giants

Best Case Scenario:
The leap made by Josh Allen in Buffalo a year ago was a lot of fun, but it also complicates this kind of analysis. Because now we have to take into account the possibility that a physically gifted quarterback can be bad over his first two seasons, then suddenly emerge in his third year. I don’t think Daniel Jones will follow the same trajectory, and I expect that the Giants will head into 2022 looking for a new quarterback. But it is a possibility, and I suppose I should touch on it here.

There is a wide gulf between becoming an MVP candidate like Allen and continuing to be well below average as Jones has been over his first two seasons. If he has a more realistic upward trajectory, a performance as a middle of the road quarterback might be enough to make this team scrappily competitive. Saquon Barkley is healthy and finally ready to live up to the promise he showed his rookie year. The addition of Adoree Jackson gives the defense a splash of athleticism across from 2020 breakout James Bradberry. If their defense can elevate to a top ten level, and they can keep games low-scoring and shorten them by feeding Barkley, they might be able to win 7 or 8 games.

Worst Case Scenario:

Jones is bad, and he isn’t going to get any better. He has enough arm strength and athleticism to make occasional plays, but he doesn’t have the accuracy or the understanding of the game to be a consistent, above-average quarterback. He invites pressure, he doesn’t protect the ball, and any progress the offense makes will be despite him, not because of him.

Barkley is phenomenally gifted physically, but there are still limitations to his game that keep him from being the sort of running back who can carry an offense. Get him in space and he can wreck defenses, but the Giants don’t have the supporting cast or the play calling to let him take advantage of that. Their offensive line should be improved, but it still won’t be good enough to clear open holes when defenses stack eight defenders in the box. The Giants offense will spend most of the year slamming their heads against a wall, and their defense doesn’t have enough playmakers to steal more than a couple games. Things could go very bad for New York, and it wouldn’t shock me if they end up completely cleaning house of coach, general manager, and quarterback after a season that leaves them picking at the very top of the draft.

Player to Watch: Leonard Williams, DT

Williams has had a very interesting career trajectory. A top ten pick in 2015, he entered the league with expectations of being the next game-wrecking force on the defensive line. He is big, explosive, and strong—everything you could want from a defensive tackle. His rookie season wasn’t particularly impressive, but he made the Pro Bowl his second year as he accumulated seven sacks. And then he just kind of stagnated. He got caught up on a Jets team with other high draft picks along the defensive front, he was forced to play out of position as a defensive end, and he never really capitalized on his potential.

A lot of people raised eyebrows when the Giants traded a third-round selection for him midseason 2019. This was somewhat justified, since he was going to be a free agent and they would have had a chance to sign him at the end of the year anyway. They ended up having no choice but to give him a 3-year $63 million extension that was way more than he deserved. And he responded by absolutely living up to it. He finished top ten in the league with 11.5 sacks, most among defensive tackles who aren’t ancient Greek gods dropped onto a football field. He was even better with his peripherals, finishing third among all players in QB hits according to Pro Football Reference. He probably needs to repeat this performance to justify what the Giants have spent on him, but doing so would go a long way towards making this defense dynamic enough to elevate their lifeless offense.