We’ve almost made it. Two days
from now the NFL season will kick off with the Chiefs battling the Patriots.
Three days after that, most of the rest of the league will get the season under
way. So I guess now would be the time to get my official predictions in, before
we get too far and everything I expected to happen falls to pieces in front of
me.
I’ve split my preview into two
shorter pieces this year. I’ll start with a division by division prediction of
each team’s record, including my playoff representatives. Tomorrow I’ll be back
with my prediction for the award races, and of course I’ll throw in my Super
Bowl prediction as well.
If you’re curious, you can check
out more details for each team by clicking the links below.
NFC
NFC South
Atlanta
Falcons: 11-5
Carolina
Panthers: 10-6
Tampa
Bay Buccaneers: 8-8
New
Orleans Saints: 6-10
Atlanta was so close to winning
the Super Bowl a year ago, and they’re returning almost their entire team.
Their biggest loss is offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, but they found a
good replacement in Steve Sarkisian. Their defense is loaded with young talent,
and they will improve on that side of the ball (if only because of the return
of Desmond Trufant). So even though I don’t think they were as good as their
record said a year ago, I think they’re still good enough to win this division.
Tampa Bay is a popular pick for
the team to make the leap, and I can see it. Adding DeSean Jackson and OJ
Howard could lift their offense to elite status, and they have some depth on
defense for the first time in a decade. I still have concerns about Winston’s
consistency, and I think it will probably take them longer to pull it together
than people expect. The real wild card contender out of this bunch is Carolina.
They got off to a rough start a year ago, but their defense is still stacked in
the front seven, and Cam Newton is still an MVP caliber player. They’ll bounce
back this year, and they have the potential to wreak some havoc in the
playoffs.
NFC West
Seattle
Seahawks: 13-3
Arizona
Cardinals: 8-8
Los
Angeles Rams: 6-10
San Francisco
49ers: 3-13
If I had any doubts about picking
Seattle to win this division, they went away when they added Sheldon Richardson
to their already loaded defense. It’s going to be next to impossible to score
points against them, with a ball hawking secondary and a pass rush that can
attack from every conceivable angle. Their offense will be as up and down as
ever, but they’ll do enough to earn Seattle the top seed in the NFC.
Arizona could compete for a wild
card, but with the losses they’ve suffered on defense I don’t see it. They have
some excellent star talent, but the depth on their team has been almost
completely wiped away. But they’ll still finish second in the division, ahead
of an uninspiring Rams team. The one potential surprise I see here is San
Francisco, even if the most positive outcome I can see for them is seven wins.
Kyle Shanahan is an excellent coach who may scheme his way into several
victories, but there is no way a team with this little talent sniffs the
playoffs.
NFC East
Dallas
Cowboys: 11-5
Philadelphia
Eagles: 9-7
New York
Giants: 8-8
Washington
Redskins: 7-9
Dallas is going to slide some
from where they finished a year ago. Their offense won’t stay as healthy, and
the flaws in their defense will prove more costly. The question isn’t whether
they’ll regress, but if they’ll regress far enough to miss the playoffs. And I
still think the talent on their offense is enough to get them to double digit
wins, which should be enough to claim the NFC East title again.
The other three teams in this
division all have playoff aspirations as well. New York added weapons in the
hopes of matching their excellent defense from a year ago, but the questions at
quarterback and offensive line will prove costly. Washington has a deep roster,
but I still don’t trust Kirk Cousins. The best chance belongs to Philadelphia,
with a defense that can power them to overcome their offensive woes. But unless
Carson Wentz drastically improves from a year ago, I think they come up
short and leave Dallas as this division’s sole playoff representative.
NFC North
Green
Bay Packers: 12-4
Minnesota
Vikings: 10-6
Chicago
Bears: 7-9
Detroit
Lions: 5-11
As we saw a year ago, Aaron
Rodgers is enough to carry Green Bay to the playoffs under any circumstances.
As long as he stays healthy, Green Bay will be playing in January. This year I
think they are steady enough throughout the regular season to clinch a first
round bye, even if I think the team overall remains very thin and very flawed.
The other teams in the NFC North just simply aren’t good enough to challenge
them.
The Bears could surprise some
people. Their offensive and defensive lines are very strong, and they have a
potential star at quarterback waiting on their bench. A playoff berth might be
ambitious, but they can cause some chaos over the second half of the season as
their young team matures. The real playoff contender from this division is
Minnesota, possibly the deepest team in the entire league. Their defense will
be near the top of the NFL again, and the weakest point is their offensive
line, which can’t possibly be worse than it was a year ago. It will be tight
down the stretch, but they’ll claim the last playoff spot for the NFC.
AFC
AFC South
Tennessee
Titans: 10-6
Houston
Texans: 8-8
Indianapolis
Colts: 8-8
Jacksonville
Jaguars: 5-11
I really wanted to pick
Indianapolis, but the questions about Andrew Luck’s health make it impossible.
The Colts are nothing without Luck, and even if he misses two weeks that could
be enough to sink them. Tennessee has become the favorite in this division by
default, with a dominant offensive line and a young quarterback ready to break
out as a true superstar. Their defense is still a disaster waiting to happen,
but in a division of severely flawed teams, their flaws are the least
concerning.
Jacksonville remains dead in the
water due to their unwillingness to address their quarterback problems, and
even if their defense takes another leap forward they can’t go better than .500
with Blake Bortles or Chad Henne under center. The only team that could really
make a run is last year’s division champions. Houston is getting back the best player in
the NFL, but unfortunately JJ Watt doesn’t play quarterback. Tom Savage was no
better last year than a quarterback they gave away a second round pick to get
rid of, and Deshaun Watson’s failure to beat him out doesn’t bode well for his
rookie season.
AFC West
Los
Angeles Chargers: 11-5
Oakland
Raiders: 9-7
Kansas
City Chiefs: 9-7
Denver
Broncos: 6-10
Oakland and Kansas City made the
playoffs a year ago, and I see them both doing it again. The dropoff from the
top of the AFC to the bottom is very steep, and the competition for the wild
card spots is going to be ugly. Both Kansas City and Oakland will take a step
back this year—the Chiefs because they have no talent on offense, the Raiders
because they won’t get as lucky this year as they were in 2016—but even a
medium sized fall will leave them in playoff contention.
These two teams could battle it
out for the division, but I have a sneaking suspicion this is (finally) the
year it comes together for the Chargers. Their defense is quietly stacked with
excellent players, and it will be a nightmare trying to throw into a secondary
of Casey Heyward and Jason Verrett while being chased by Melvin Ingram and Joey
Bosa. If they can stay healthy (and this is always a big if), the Chargers have
the ability to fight their way to the top of this division, and an outside shot
of competing with the top teams in the AFC.
AFC East
New
England Patriots: 13-3
Miami
Dolphins: 8-8
Buffalo
Bills: 4-12
New York
Jets: 1-15
It is extremely difficult to go
an entire season without winning a game, but the Jets could pull it off. I was
sorely tempted to predict them to finish 0-16, and in the end it was only the
need for every team’s win totals to sum to 256 that got me to bump them up. The
Jets are a terrible team, but there are a lot of terrible teams in the AFC, and
it’s going to be tough for even this roster to fail sixteen times.
New York’s quest for a winless
season is probably the most interesting thing in the AFC East. The Patriots are
going to run away with the division, and they’ll likely be the top overall seed
in the conference as well. The Bills are also doing their best job to tank, and
they just have to hope that two games against the Jets don’t ruin those
efforts. Miami might be able to push for a wild card spot again, but I expect
that they will come up a couple games short.
AFC North
Pittsburgh
Steelers: 11-5
Cleveland
Browns: 7-9
Baltimore
Ravens: 7-9
Cincinnati
Bengals: 5-11
Outside of New England,
Pittsburgh is the class of the AFC, but they don’t always play like it. This is
a team with an established habit of coming out completely flat two or three
times a year, and it will keep them from having a shot at home field throughout
the playoffs. Fortunately, they won’t have an issue winning the division.
None of these teams is in any
shape to compete with the Steelers. Cincinnati sheds talent in free agency every
year and hasn’t drafted an impact player since Tyler Eifert. Baltimore’s
offensive line is now as tattered as their receiving corps, and consistently
shutting down the opposing rushing attack can only do so much. Cleveland will
be better than people expect, but they’re still a year or two away from really
pushing to the playoffs. Pittsburgh will coast to an easy division title, and
spend most of the year trying to figure out how the hell they’re going to beat
the Patriots.
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