My Way Too Early Predictions Review

One of my favorite posts to write each year is my prediction review. I spend the month prior to the season making a bunch of predictions for the year, and then at the very end I look back and see what I got right and what I got wrong. More often than not I end up highlighting a bunch of stupid stuff I said, but every now and then I turn up a gem of actual insight.

I love writing this post, and so I got thinking, why wait until the end of the year? Do we really need to watch twenty-two weeks of football when we could settle for just one?

Obviously I’m being facetious, but after one week it makes sense to look at what we saw in the context of what we expected. If something went as predicted, does that mean it will hold up for the rest of the year? And if something differed, does that mean that we were wrong?

Prediction: New England is the undisputed best team in the AFC

Well, that didn’t last long. With all the momentum in the world, with everyone gathered in their home stadium to celebrate last year’s Super Bowl win, the Patriots went out and laid an absolute egg against the Chiefs. Alex Smith threw for 368 yards and four touchdowns. A rookie running back totaled 246 yards from scrimmage. And Tom Brady completed fewer than half his passes and failed to throw a touchdown.

So is this a sign that the Patriots are on the verge fo a collapse, or was it just a bad game? I’ll say the answer is 50/50. Brady’s struggles are worth monitoring, especially for a 40 year old quarterback, but I think it’s more likely than not that he bounces back in a big way next week. The absence of Julian Edelman was glaring, and the Patriots pushed the ball downfield more than I’ve seen them do in years. They’re still working out some kinks of this offense, but I think it will be an efficient machine again in a couple weeks.

I’m worried about the defense. This team entered the season with a disturbing lack of talent on the edge, and this showed up in their utter inability to pressure Smith. One of the most conservative quarterbacks in the league was able to attack downfield because he was able to hold the ball as long as he wanted, to let the play develop until he was absolutely sure his receiver was open. New England’s strength was supposed to be their secondary, but they couldn’t keep up with Kansas City’s mediocre receiving corps. There are vulnerabilities at every level of this defense, and it will take another miracle from Belichick to make them go away at any point this year.

Prediction: Kansas City’s offense will struggle to move the ball

This one doesn’t look particularly great either. Kansas City tore up and down the field against the Patriots, running and passing at will for most of the game. They did this without getting major contributions from Travis Kelce, who was clearly their best player a year ago. And as good as Kansas City’s defense played, an offense that can sustain this level would make this team a favorite in the AFC.

First I want to say that while Smith was certainly good on Thursday, he wasn’t as good as his numbers indicated. He missed some easy throws, he ran into some sacks, and he was reluctant to throw the ball deep unless his pass protection was perfect. But the pass protection was perfect, and it’s possible that I underestimated Kansas City’s offensive line. They have one of the best units in the AFC, and they look like they’ve only gotten better over the offseason. And with the emergence of Kareem Hunt, and the development of a very clever offensive scheme under one of the best coaches in the league, this offense could very easily be for real.

Prediction: Andy Dalton will struggle with the departure of his two best offensive linemen

I’m going to be honest. This was the one game this weekend that I did not see a single play of. So while I can’t say for sure that pressure was the cause of Andy Dalton’s terrible performance, I think it’s a pretty fair assumption. Dalton was sacked five times, and that’s also the number of turnovers he had, with a fumble to go along with four interceptions. The Bengals failed to score a single point, the sort of performance that even Joe Flacco can win against.

It certainly can’t get worse from here, and I’m not sure how much better it can get either. Dalton has always struggled under pressure, and the Bengals simply don’t have the talent they need on the offensive line. They have some good skill position players that they can get more involved, and a healthy John Ross could make things easier for the offense. But even then, I can’t see this offense getting out of the bottom ten in the league.

Prediction: Washington and Philadelphia will have to win despite their quarterbacks

The opening weekend clash between these two division rivals was an ugly affair. Both teams are extremely deep, and Philadelphia has a lot of star talent on the defensive side of the ball. Both teams made some spectacular plays, and both teams struggled through shaky performances by their quarterbacks.

Cousins’s numbers weren’t pretty, completing 23 of 40 passes for only 240 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Wentz’s numbers look better on paper with 307 yards on 67% completion and two touchdowns to go with his interception. But both quarterbacks made some major mistakes, and both left some plays on the field. These are the sort of teams that will be alive for most of the season, but when they match up against opponents with a clear advantage at the quarterback position they are going to be in trouble.

Prediction: Houston is not a playoff team

The score says enough, and yet somehow it doesn’t go all the way to expressing how bad Houston was this week. I was watching with a Jaguars fan (they actually do exist!) so I flipped back to this game pretty frequently, and every time I did I saw a Texans quarterback running for his life. The Jaguars managed ten sacks, and somehow that number seems too small, as Houston’s only hope on offense was chucking the ball up to DeAndre Hopkins and hoping to get a pass interference penalty.

Tom Savage was as bad as we could have expected, and yet you could make the argument that he was better than Deshaun Watson. Watson led a touchdown drive on his first series, but that came on a drive that was twice extended by penalties, including one that negated an interception. He did a better job evading pressure than Savage, but other than that he showed no indication that he’s ready to play quarterback in the NFL.

Houston’s offense is completely impotent, and it’s not getting any better. And the fact that they made it only halfway through the first game before changing quarterbacks is just another sign that Bill O’Brien doesn’t know what he’s doing as a coach. He has spent his four years in Houston juggling quarterbacks, repeatedly admitting that he has no idea who the best players on his own team are. They won’t face a defense as good as Jacksonville’e every week, but I’m even more certain now than I was a week ago that the Texans aren’t going to be competing in the AFC South this year.

Prediction: The Titans are ready to compete

Titans fans have to be disappointed in their opening weekend loss to the Raiders. The premier game of the early afternoon, this was their chance to prove to a major offense that they have turned things around. It was expected that they would struggle to stop Oakland from scoring, but with an offense led by one of the best young quarterbacks in the league they had to believe they could keep up.

16 points later they went home on the losing end. It was a disheartening outcome, but when you look into the box score the game was a lot closer than the final score indicates. The Raiders only outgained the Titans by nine yards, and neither team turned the ball over. Tennessee’s biggest issues came in the red zone, where they only converted one of their three opportunities into a touchdown.

There are a couple of ways to look at this. Tennessee played well against the good team, and they have a number of good things to build on. But their biggest problem came in the red zone, a place that was screaming for regression coming into the year. They led the league with a 72 percent touchdown rate in the red zone last year, a performance they weren’t likely to repeat. So while their performance on Sunday wasn’t necessarily bad, it’s worth reconsidering how high I was on them coming into the year.

Prediction: The offensive additions won’t save Jared Goff from himself

Man, I did not see that coming. The Rams were the worst scoring offense in the league last year, managing only 14 points per game. They more than tripled that total this week, with a league leading 46 against the Colts. And even though 16 of those points were generated by their defense, the performance of their offense was a drastic divergence from last year. Particularly impressive was Goff, completing 21 of 29 passes for 306 yards and a touchdown.

It's impossible to understate how different this was from the seven games he played last year. This was the first time he completed more than 65 percent of his passes. This was the first time he threw for over 250 yards. This was the first time he threw a touchdown without also throwing an interception. He averaged more than 10 yards per attempt, the first time he has eclipsed 7 yards per attempt. And most significantly, this was the first time he won a game.

This entire offseason desperate Rams fans argued that Goff was hampered by terrible coaching and talent around him. Most reasonable people dismissed this argument, since a quarterback can’t possibly put together the worst rookie season of all time without also being bad himself.

So was this week a fluke, or has Goff actually turned into a good quarterback overnight? Right now I have no idea. I held off on completely giving up on Goff because I liked him in college, and it looks like he recaptured that magic in the opening week. But it also came against Indianapolis, one of the more talent barren defenses (and offenses) in the league. So maybe I’ll hold off on taking back this prediction until I see him face actual NFL level competition. But it’s hard not to be excited by the possibility that he’s turned this around.

Prediction: Russell Wilson is good enough to make up for the lack of talent around him

It was one game on the road against one of the best teams in the league, but it’s hard to imagine any way to come out of the opening week more discouraged by the Seahawks. Defensively, they did everything we could have expected them to do. They harassed Aaron Rodgers, they forced an interception, and they bottled the Packers up for most of the day.

And it didn’t matter, because their offense was completely ineffective. Green Bay’s defense isn’t as bad as it was a couple years ago, but it is far from a top tier unit, and they tore Seattle’s offensive line to shreds. The Seahawks running game didn’t exist, and Wilson couldn’t drop more than three steps without a defender in his face.

A year ago a Vikings team that is built very similar to the Seahawks got off to a 5-0 start before injuries decimated their offensive line. They lost eight of their final eleven, despite one of the best defenses in the league. Wilson is a lot better than Sam Bradford, but Minnesota’s skill position talent is far ahead of Seattle’s. And after the opening week performance, it’s worth wondering just how bad it can get for the Seahawks.

Prediction: Minnesota can compete with the best teams in the NFC

We knew Minnesota’s defense was going to be top notch, but it was still impressive how they managed to stifle the Saints offense. Drew Brees worked his usual magic, but New Orleans had very little else, as a late touchdown drive was the only thing that got them to a somewhat respectable 19 points. They couldn’t run the ball, their receivers couldn’t get open, and even when they made it into the red zone they struggled to convert these opportunities into touchdowns.

The bigger surprise was the performance of Minnesota’s offense. The 127 yards performance by Dalvin Cook was impressive, but it wasn’t nearly as shocking as what they did through the air. After spending a year running for his life and checking every pass down short of the sticks, Bradford actually got some time to sit in the pocket, and he made more aggressive throws than I saw him make all last year. And he was almost always on the money, completing 27 of 32 passes for 346 yards and three touchdowns, while only being sacked a single time.

Now we know that the Saints defense is not good. So we will have to wait and see what the Vikings do against a quality defense (next week against Pittsburgh is an excellent test). But the plays that Bradford was making are the plays that can happen against any defense. And with shaky performances by Seattle, Green Bay, and Atlanta, the Vikings are very much in the conversation in the NFC.