Yesterday I went through every
division and broke down what record I expected every team to finish with. Today I’ll
get into the other big predictions of the year, who will win the major awards.
As always, these awards are as much about narrative as they are about
production. You can’t just look for who will have the best season. You also
have to try to predict who will have the best story to go along with their
season. Which means this is somehow even more random and pointless than
yesterday’s predictions.
Oh, and if you’re really into
that sort of thing I also have a Super Bowl prediction at the bottom.
Let’s just get football started
already.
Awards
Offensive Rookie of the Year – Christian
McCaffrey, RB/WR, Carolina Panthers
Other possibilities: Dalvin Cook,
Zay Jones, DeShone Kizer, Deshaun Watson
I’m still not sure I trust the
Panthers coaching staff to use McCaffrey right, but they certainly talk a good
game. From the sound of it they plan on spreading him out everywhere on the
field, playing running back and receiver to contribute both on the ground
and through the air. He has a rare skillset, and he can put up some gaudy
numbers and impressive highlights to win voters over. Carolina’s offense is due
for a bounceback after last year, and since there’s nothing people like more
than taking credit away from Cam Newton, McCaffrey will likely end up as the
face of that side of the ball this year.
Cook could win the award for most
of the same reasons I listed for McCaffrey. He isn’t as versatile, but he is
good as a receiver out of the backfield, and Sam Bradford loves a checkdown
more than anything else in the world. Minnesota’s running game will be better
this year by virtue of having an actual offensive line, and all eyes will be on
Cook as he attempts to replace Adrian Peterson.
Jones is a longshot pick, but
among the receivers he’s in the best scenario. Buffalo has no one else to throw
to, and he has the kind of game that will transition easily to the NFL. He put
up insane numbers a year ago at East Carolina, and he could put up some
impressive stats again for an abysmal Bills team.
But of course, this award always
seems to come down to whether or not there’s an impressive rookie passer. Kizer
has the clear inside track here, since he’s the only rookie starting so far.
But if Houston gets off to a rough start and Watson comes in just as they start
a run towards the playoffs, he could win the popular support on the back of a
“quarterback who led his team to the playoffs” argument. Never mind that they
made the playoffs a year ago with Brock freaking Osweiler under center.
Defensive Rookie of the Year – Myles Garrett,
DE, Cleveland Browns
Other possibilities: Haason Reddick,
Budda Baker Adoree Jackson, Derek Barnett
The news from earlier today that
Garrett suffered an ankle injury and could miss up to a month opens up a race
that was pretty clearcut before this. I considered changing my prediction, but
in the end I have to stick with Garrett. Joey Bosa won a year ago despite
playing only 12 games, and I can see Garrett putting together a similarly
dominant year.
Garrett is one of the best
players to enter the league in a long time. He is an athletic freak with
excellent pass rushing moves, and he dominates against both the run and the
pass. I think he has a very good chance at double digit sacks this year,
headlining a defense on a team that is going to be much improved. Prior to his
injury if I’d been given a choice between him and the field, I would have had
to think long and hard before making that decision.
But let’s take a look at the
field. Reddick and Baker are also rare athletes, and they’ll be put in a
situation to make a lot of plays in Arizona. The Cardinals defense has been
decimated by free agency, and they will expect immediate contributions from
their rookies. Both Reddick and Baker have tremendous playmaking instincts, and
no defensive scheme is more open to just letting their players play than
Arizona’s.
Jackson is a playmaker, and if
Tennessee breaks out like most expect, he’ll have the potential to get a lot of
attention. His coverage skills need a lot of work, but he has the potential to
haul in three or four interceptions, and athleticism in open space to turn
those interceptions into points. And even though this is an award for defensive
rookie of the year, adding a touchdown or two on special teams never hurts the
cause.
If you want another pass rusher
besides Garrett, you could look at Barnett. Barnett is going to struggle to see
the field some with the depth along the front in Philadelphia, but when he does
get out there he is almost always going to be single blocked. He collected a
lot of sacks in college, and he can do so again to start off his NFL career as
a pass rushing specialist for one of the most loaded defenses in the league.
Coach of the Year – Mike Mularkey, Tennessee
Titans
Other Possibilities: Anthony
Lynn, Bill Belichick
Ugh. I hate this award. This
isn’t something that’s handed out to reward actual coaching. More than any of the others this award is driven by narratives, specifically the narratives of what we
expected before the season. Jason Garrett won a year ago because his team lost
its face of the franchise in the preseason and still ended up winning the
division. How much of that was actually Garrett, and how much was them
lucking into a fantastic quarterback in the fourth round? There’s no way to
know, but we decided to give it to Garrett nonetheless.
So this year I think the award
will go to Mularkey. Even though everyone already expects the Titans to break out,
even though Mularkey is actually a pretty bad coach who is holding his team
back, the turnaround of a franchise that has been terrible for half a decade
will win him the votes he needs. A healthy season by the Chargers could
similarly win Lynn the award. And I guess I’ll throw Belichick in there, since
he’s actually the best coach in the league and probably the best of all time
and he hasn’t won the award since 2010.
Comeback Player of the Year – JJ Watt, DE, Houston
Texans
Other Possibilities: Keenan
Allen, Marshawn Lynch, Teddy Bridgewater
This award is pretty simple. The
best non-quarterback in the league is coming back from a season ending injury.
Watt is going to tear through the league as he always does, and people are
going to race to give him this award. Every Texan game will be a story of how
his dedication and hard work paid off with his recovery and return to the top
of the league, and it will end with him unanimously adding this to his trophy
collection.
But let’s say for a second that
doesn’t happen. Say Watt underperforms, or he gets hurt again, who else has a
chance? The first name that jumps out is Allen. Allen has only played nine
games in the past two years, but if you extrapolate his performance over those
games to a full season you’d get 130 catches for 1400 yards (and that’s
probably underselling it, since he left two of those games early). Health is
obviously always a concern, but if he stays healthy he’s a top five receiver in
the league.
Lynch landed in the best possible
situation in Oakland. The offensive line in front of him is physical and mean,
and they fit his running style as well as any in the league. He’s not going to
be an every down back, but he might be able to scratch towards 1000 yards,
adding in double digit touchdowns for one of the most dangerous offenses in the
league. And a year away from football has turned
him into a genuine folk hero, the little guy returning to his hometown to fight
against the league.
Finally, there’s Bridgewater. He
is currently on the PUP, and it is still very possible that he doesn’t play at
all this year. But there’s a chance, a chance that he rejoins the active roster
midway through the year, a chance that he takes over when Bradford gets hurt or
struggles, a chance that he elevates the Vikings to a genuine contender and
carries them into the playoffs. A year ago we were wondering if he would ever
play again, and now he might be coming back to carry Minnesota to the promise
land.
What, I’m not allowed to entertain
a fantasy every now and then?
Defensive Player of the Year – JJ Watt, DE,
Houston Texans
Other possibilities: Aaron
Donald, Khalil Mack, Joey Bosa, Danielle Hunter
Hey, this guy again. Yeah, I’m
picking JJ Watt to win Defensive Player of the Year once again. A bit
predictable, but how could I pick anyone else? Watt is a destructive force like
no one else in the league, and this year he’ll be out to prove himself after
missing most of last season. His efforts to raise money after Hurricane Harvey
won’t hurt the narrative either, and if Houston can make the playoffs he’s got
this thing pretty much locked up.
Donald is about the only player
in the league who can come close to replicating what Watt does. He explodes
into the backfield so fast that it almost seems impossible, and he routinely
wrecks everything an offense is trying to do in both the running and the
passing game. There’s no accounting for him, and the only way to stop him is to
keep him off the field. Fortunately, the Rams seem to be doing that already, as
he is still holding out for a new contract that he very rightly deserves.
Mack won last year, and if
Oakland makes the playoffs again he could easily repeat. But if we’re really
going off the board, I’ll take a run at two young pass rushers. Bosa was one of
the best defensive players in the league last year after his contract mess was
resolved, and now playing a full season he has a chance to become the face of
the rebuilt Chargers defense. And moving into a starting role, I could see
Hunter explode as one of the best defensive players this year. I
think he might struggle to repeat his numbers a year ago, but he has as much
upside as any defensive player in the league.
But of course, it’s going to be
Watt.
MVP – Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
Other possibilities: Tom Brady, Dak
Prescott, Le’Veon Bell
My MVP and Defensive Player of
the Year picks are the exact same as they were a year ago, because the best
offensive and defensive player in the league are the exact same as they were a
year ago. Rodgers is still the best quarterback in the NFL. He was the best
quarterback when Matt Ryan won last year (though I still think Ryan deserved
it, if that makes sense), and he’ll be the best quarterback likely until the
Colts figure out how to properly use Andrew Luck.
If Rodgers doesn’t win, the next
most likely candidate is Brady. He might not put up big numbers as he coasts
through an easy field to another conference title, but after last year’s Super
Bowl people seem more willing to fawn over him than normal. I am worried about
how a 40 year old quarterback will perform over a 16 game season, and he was
certainly not at the top of his game during the playoffs a year ago.
In terms of young quarterbacks
who could get into the mix, the two best bets are Prescott and Marcus Mariota.
I don’t think Mariota has a realistic shot, partially because he plays in
Tennessee and partially because he is stifled by Mularkey. Prescott will still
have some doubters because of the talent around him, but if he can perform at a
high level during Ezekiel Elliott’s (still up in the air) suspension, he can
win people over.
This award is going to be won by
a quarterback, but if I have to choose a player from another position to get
it, I guess I’ll go with Bell. Bell is an elite playmaker as both a runner and
a receiver, and the only thing that’s held him back to this point in his career
is staying on the field. If he can play a full sixteen games he could put up
something ridiculous like 1500 yards rushing and 1000 yards receiving, the sort
of gaudy numbers that could elevate him into the conversation if the
quarterback field is uninspiring.
Super Bowl
New
England Patriots over Green Bay Packers.
This is my nightmare. (Actually
no, the Packers winning would be my nightmare. But this is a close runner up.)
The AFC is very simple. The
Patriots and the Steelers are head and shoulders above everyone else, and they
will probably meet in the AFC Championship once again. And since the Steelers
still have shown no indication that they know how to contain New England’s
offense, the Patriots have to be the favorite to emerge from this. I don’t
think there’s anyone else in the AFC who can reasonable compete with these two
teams, and I think the only real chance of the Patriots failing to reach the
Super Bowl is if Brady suffers a sudden (and very possible) dropoff in the
level of his performance.
The NFC is a lot more wide open.
I picked the Seahawks, Packers, Falcons, Cowboys, Panthers, and Vikings to make
the playoffs, and I could see any one of those teams going on a run. So let’s
try to eliminate them one by one to see what we’re left with.
The most important position on
the field is the quarterback, and there is one clear outlier from this
quarterback group. The Packers, Falcons, and Panthers all have former MVPs
under center, and Russell Wilson has performed at MVP levels for stretches.
Prescott has the ability to elevate his game to a higher level as he develops
this year, something I’m not sure Bradford is capable of. So as much as it
pains me, I have to make the Vikings the first team to drop from the list.
Seattle and Carolina both have
glaring flaws on the offensive line (the Vikings would also have been killed by
this). There isn’t a great pass rushing threat from the other three teams, but
there is enough out there to bother Wilson and Newton to knock them off their
games.
After that it comes down to
balance. Dallas and Atlanta have loaded offenses, but at some point they’re
going to have to stand their ground and stop their opposition. I don’t think
either team has the firepower to repeat what they did a year ago, and I think
they’ll get wiped out by more balanced teams.
Green Bay makes it by virtue of
having the least obvious flaws. I don’t like much on their team, but I don’t
openly hate any part of it either. And of course, their quarterback is better than
any other quarterback out there, and that will go a long way against teams that
are working to hide some pretty serious holes.
As for the game itself, I think
the Patriots are just too much for the Packers. Give Bill Belichick two weeks
to prepare (against anyone other the Giants), and he is going to find something
to exploit. The Packers don’t have the secondary or the pass rush
to bother Brady, and their questionmarks in pass protection will leave Rodgers
vulnerable to one of the most creative defensive minds in NFL history.
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