2017 NFL Draft: In Depth

Let’s Talk About the Browns

The Browns are unquestionably the story of the night. They came into the draft having two first round picks, including the first selection overall, and they managed to move up to add a third while also sliding down to in exchange for another first round pick next year. Having a lot of high draft picks is nothing new for the Browns, but the big question remains whether they can do anything worthwhile with those selections.

There was a very clear trend with Cleveland’s three picks last night. All three are very young and very athletic. Jabrill Peppers is the oldest of the three, born in October of 1995. He also might be the least athletic, despite being known as a developmental athlete who is still searching for a position. Here is where each of these players ranks at their respective positions in percentile terms for each of the events at the combine.

	Myles Garrett	Jabrill Peppers	David Njoku
40 Yard Dash	88	87	79
3 Cone Drill			80
Short Shuttle			56
Vertical Leap	98	49	90
Broad Jump	96	92	98
Bench Press	94	69	56

That is some inspiring athletic ability. Of course, we only have to look a couple years into Browns history to see names like Justin Gilbert and Barkevious Mingo to give us an idea of how this doesn’t always work. As athletes these prospects are incredible, but were they worth the picks that were used on them?

Let’s start from the bottom and work our way up. After their earlier pair of selections, the Browns jumped four spots to grab Njoku, giving up a fourth round pick in the process. The Browns have an insane number of picks and a limited number of roster spots, so giving up a fourth rounder here doesn’t bother me. Especially considering the player they got with it.

I thought there was a chance the Browns would end up with Njoku at number twelve. It would have been a little bit of a reach to take him there, but it wouldn’t have been absurd. Getting him at the bottom of the first round was one of the steals of the draft. He isn’t as well rounded as someone like OJ Howard, but he has the potential to be one of the top receiving tight ends in the league. The damage he can do after the catch is the sort of thing you just don’t see very often from tight ends. He’s another weapon for their offense, a unit that might actually be better than most people realize.

I wish I could be as positive about Peppers. As an athlete Peppers is roughly on the same level as Njoku, but as an all around player he has a long way to go. He’ll likely play a hybrid linebacker/safety role in the NFL, utilizing his rare combination of size and speed that allows him to go anywhere on the field on any given play. The problem is, he still doesn’t know where he’s supposed to go, so he ends up wasting his athleticism running in the wrong direction on half the plays.

This was a reach for Peppers, but of all the places he could have ended up this might be the best outcome for his development. Peppers is not ready to play in the NFL, and a team that actually wants to win games could not justify putting him out on the field. But the Browns are still a couple years away from turning this around, and in the meantime they might as well let Peppers learn how to play football. He is going to make mistakes, and he is going to get his defense killed a couple times every game. But the Browns are in a position to deal with that, and if Peppers can learn from his failures he has the potential to develop into a top notch player down the road.

And that brings us back to the very first player taken in the draft. Myles Garrett is the most complete prospect available this year. His athleticism is one of a kind, and he is actually fairly well developed as a pass rusher. He has the potential to be the best defensive player in the league.

And it was a mistake for the Browns to draft him.

The Browns need a quarterback. They’ve needed a quarterback for a long time, and they just passed up what could be the best opportunity they’ll have to get one. Feelings are mixed on Mitchell Trubisky, but I absolutely believe he is a franchise quarterback, and based on everything I heard leading up to the draft, the Browns feel the same. And if that’s the case, there is no justification for taking anyone else ahead of him.

It’s become one of the most tiring refrains in football to say you shouldn’t reach for a quarterback. So let me just run through some of the awful arguments I’ve heard over the past few weeks.

“Trubisky isn’t an Andrew Luck caliber prospect”

No, he isn’t. But this is a ridiculous standard. A prospect of Luck’s caliber comes around once every fifteen years. You aren’t going to get a player like this, so you should stop waiting for one.

“You can get good quarterbacks later in the draft”

I’m so sick of people pointing to Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, and Dak Prescott. Yeah, there have been a few mid to late round successes at the quarterback position. But since 2000 there have been 163 quarterbacks drafted outside the first round, nearly four times as many as were taken in the first round. And yet when you look around the league, the majority of starters are former first round picks. Because the NFL is actually pretty good at recognizing talent, and you shouldn’t bet your franchise on finding an outlier.

“The Browns aren’t ready for a young quarterback yet”

This is an understandable error, but it’s fundamentally ignorant of what Cleveland has done with their roster. Their offensive line is stocked with talent, and it could become one of the best in the league. Kenny Britt quietly had a 1000 yard season with Case Keenum and Jared Goff throwing him the ball last year. And though Corey Coleman struggled with injuries his rookie season, he has the ability to become a dynamic weapon on the outside. This is actually not a bad situation for a young quarterback to come into.

“Next year’s class is better”

Yeah, this is the exact same thing I heard last year. Wait until next year, when there will be a bunch of hot new prospects no one has seriously broken down yet. Maybe Sam Darnold is the next Andrew Luck (not from the little I’ve seen). Maybe Lamar Jackson will revolutionize the game of football. Maybe Josh Allen will ride out of Wyoming to take the league by storm. We don’t know this, and we also don’t know if the Browns will be in a position to take a quarterback next year. They’ve been bad for a long time, and this is the first top selection they’ve had since 2001. There’s a very good chance they won’t be in position to get the top quarterback next year and will have to sell all the assets they’ve worked to collect in order to move up to grab him.

You can disagree with me about Trubisky. He isn’t a perfect prospect, and if you don’t believe he’s a future franchise quarterback then I understand going with Garrett. But I think he is, and it appears that the Browns agree. Which is why it’s hard to stand by the decision they made last night.

The Quarterback Trade

Three quarterbacks were selected in the first round, and all three went to teams that traded up to draft their guy. The Bears gave up two third round picks and a fourth rounder to move up one spot to select Trubisky. The Chiefs traded their third round pick this year along with their first round pick next year to go from 27 to 10 to grab Pat Mahomes. And finally the Texans gave the Browns next year’s first round pick to move from 25 to 12 where they selected Deshaun Watson.

I can’t say I’m a huge fan of any of these moves. Obviously I’ve already expressed my fondness for Trubisky, so it’s hard for me not to defend what the Bears did. They made an aggressive move, and they got the one quarterback in this draft who I am convinced can be a franchise guy. That is never a mistake, even though I think they probably gave up too much to move one spot up in the draft. This isn’t a team that’s working with a lot of talent, and they don’t have the draft capital the Browns have stockpiled. And truth be told, they’re probably a worse situation for a young quarterback to go into than Cleveland. I don’t hate the move, but this may have been a case where it would have been better to keep their picks and see what Mike Glennon could give them for a year.

I have similar mixed feelings about what the Chiefs did. There’s no denying the talent that Mahomes has. His arm strength is truly one of a kind, and he regularly uncorks the sort of throws that don’t seem physically possible. He’s smart, and he mastered the backwards offense he was asked to run at Texas Tech. And he’ll be partnered with Andy Reid, probably the best quarterbacks coach working in the NFL today.

But man, this is a gamble. Mahomes’s mechanics are wild, and he takes more risks than any quarterback I have ever seen. And even though these are both things that can be corrected in the NFL, it’s hard to believe that even Reid can push him through this drastic of a transition. Mahomes is coming into a good situation on a playoff team with a decent option under center, but eventually he will be asked to take over as Kansas City’s starting quarterback. And I think there’s at least a 50/50 chance that he never develops to be even a replacement level starting quarterback.

I’m conflicted about the moves made by the Bears and the Chiefs. I absolutely despise the one made by the Texans. This trade was one that reeks of desperation, from a team that screwed up their quarterback situation a year ago and has only made things worse trying to patch it up. They blew $72 million on Brock Osweiler, costing themselves a second round pick just to avoid having him on their team this year. And now they’ve spent two first round picks on their next quarterback, a limited prospect with a stellar college résumé and virtually no upside in the NFL.

Watson was the perfect driver of Clemson’s machine of an offense. He made simple reads and distributed the ball to talent that was far superior to almost everyone they faced. Most of his throws were easy slant routes that he decided on before the snap, and when that didn’t work out he either took off running or threw a jump ball to Mike Williams. He received a lot of praise for leading his team back in tough fourth quarter situations, ignoring the fact that his tendency to throw the ball to the other team led to most of these situations.

Watson doesn’t know how to run an NFL offense or make NFL reads. He doesn’t have the arm strength of the two quarterbacks drafted ahead of him. He panics in the pocket if his first read isn’t there, and he isn’t a good enough athlete to make teams fear him as a runner. I don’t think he’ll wash out of the league, but I would be shocked if he ever becomes a long term solution as a starter. And more likely than not I expect we’ll see the Texans looking for an upgrade at quarterback four or five years down the road.

Best Players Remaining

I don’t know if I can recall ever being this excited for a second round before. This was a deep draft class, and there were a lot of players who went in the first round that probably shouldn’t have. Which means there is an abundance of talent to be found in the early part of day two. Here are the best five prospects as I see them left on the board.

Obi Melifonwu, S, Connecticut

This is probably the biggest surprise omission from the first round. Melifonwu dominated the combine, and his tape showed a player who is comfortable both sitting back in coverage and coming up hard against the run. He is an excellent tackler, and he’ll only become more dangerous as he gets more comfortable making reads and learns to play with more aggression. I don’t understand how he wasn’t a top ten pick, much less how he fell out of the first round.

Zach Cunningham, LB, Vanderbilt

This one makes a little more sense, even if it never would have happened if I was running a team. I understand why some people don’t like Cunningham. His testing numbers are good but not great, and he had a habit of misreading plays and missing tackles. He also had a habit of flying through traffic and making insane plays at or behind the line of scrimmage, the sort of plays no other linebacker can make. There’s some risk in taking him, but his upside is as one of the best linebackers in the league.

Joe Mixon, RB, Oklahoma

We all knew how this was going to work. Mixon is the best running back prospect in the draft, but because of the video of him striking a woman three years ago it isn’t possible for a team to grab him in the first round. First round picks are heavily scrutinized, and they go through a process of interviews and attention that other players don’t get. Now that teams have a first round pick to draw the attention, Mixon will go off the board fairly quickly.

Malik McDowell, DT/DE, Michigan State

The concerns that knocked McDowell down are around his attitude and an occasional lack of effort on the field. I can’t speak towards the first, but I have to say that the second surprises me. I didn’t see any significant laziness on the field in any of the three games I watched. Every play he looked explosive, powerful, and at times unstoppable. I feel like whoever gets him in the second round is getting an absolute steal, possibly a Pro Bowl caliber player for years to come.

Budda Baker, S, Washington

If Baker was a couple inches taller and fifteen pounds heavier he would have been a top fifteen pick. And while the size is a concern, it probably shouldn’t have knocked him down this far. He is one of the most dynamic players on every play he’s on the field, making up for what he lacks in discipline with pure speed and aggression. There will be some bumps adapting him to an NFL system, and there will always be limitations to what he can do. But I still feel like he’s a reliable starter, with upside as a potential star.

Additional Prospect Breakdowns

 

I broke down 63 prospects prior to the draft. 29 of these ended up selected in the first round. I’m pretty proud of this success rate, but this does mean there are three first round selections I’m not informed enough to speak to. And as much as I’d like to spew a bunch of generic bullshit based entirely on other people’s scouting reports, I ended up watching three games of each and writing them up instead.

24. New York Giants – Evan Engram, TE, Ole Miss

Engram is officially a tight end, but I don’t think it would be out of place to call him a wide receiver. He lined up primarily in the slot in college, and there’s a decent chance he’s never gone down into a three point stance in his life. In size he’s closer to Mike Williams than he is to OJ Howard, though he happens to be much faster than both. He ran a 4.42 forty at the combine, which is the main reason he was selected in the first round.

Engram is certainly fast on the field, though not nearly as fast as his forty time would indicate. He can break away deep but he doesn’t explode off the ball, and he isn’t that dangerous running with the ball in his hands. He struggles against press coverage, and he’s nothing special as a route runner, with the exception of when he’s faking a block. He has excellent upper body flexibility, able to give an exaggerated shoulder turn before exploding down the field to open a window for the quarterback to throw to.

And for the fourth year in a row I have to say that I really don’t like the Giants pick. Engram is a good fit for their spread out scheme, but he’s a one dimensional player who struggles with drops and can't make contested catches. He wasn't worth more than a mid-second round selection, and that's without even considering that there was a genuine first round tight end talent in Njoku sitting on the board.

28. Dallas Cowboys – Taco Charlton, DE, Michigan

Charlton isn’t the most inspiring selection of this draft. He has good size, standing 6-6 and weighing 277 pounds, and he’s very polished for a college player. He uses the full length of his arms as asset, striking the center of a lineman’s chest with his inside hand and riding him to keep outside leverage. At times he can dip beneath a blocker’s arms and make plays in the backfield, and he generates good disruption penetrating vertically into the backfield.

The problem with Charlton is that he just isn’t much of an athlete. He’s not obviously unathletic on the field, but his middling combine numbers aren’t encouraging. He doesn’t move well laterally, and he doesn’t have much of a burst after his initial surge. Too often he will win on the edge only to be shoved out of the play by the blocker he had just beaten. For someone his size he doesn’t play with much power, and I don’t see anything in his arsenal that would make him a consistent pass rushing threat.

I probably would have pegged him somewhere in the middle of the second round, so this is a bit of a reach. There are better edge defenders available, and there are probably more pressing needs the Cowboys could have satisfied. It will be interesting to see what Rod Marinelli makes of Charlton, but I’m just not sure there’s that much that can be done with him.

30. Pittsburgh Steelers – TJ Watt, DE/OLB, Wisconsin

Watt isn’t at Garrett’s level as an athlete, but he’s the next best thing. His performance at the combine is the main reason he went in the first round, though there are some things to like from him on tape. His speed and agility is obvious on the field, where he regularly chases plays down from behind. He also does a good job engaging with his hands, keeping himself free to use his quickness to explode around blockers.

I found myself a little confused watching him, wondering why he didn’t dominate more than he did. There were a few moments every game where he looked unstoppable, when he beat a lineman around the edge with his speed and powered through him into the quarterback. But on most plays he was fairly invisible. He seems to attack offensive linemen rather than trying to run around them, and once his initial move fails he usually gives up and drifts in space.

The first round was probably higher than he deserved to go, but if Pittsburgh was looking for an edge defender he was the best option available. They’ve had mixed success so far developing a very similar player in Bud Dupree, but he came on strong late last year and has to give them confidence that they have something going forward. Watt may take some time as well, but he has the potential to be a star.

Superlatives

Best Pick – Jonathan Allen, DT/DE, Washington Redskins

I was not a fan of most of the picks in the top ten, which meant that when picks 11-20 rolled around there were a lot of very good players to go off the board. Marshon Lattimore to the Saints would fit perfectly here, as would Howard to the Buccaneers, and if we wanted to look down even farther I’ve already given my thoughts on Njoku to the Browns.

But Allen to the Redskins is a perfect match of talent and team that I really didn’t see coming. I had a hard time finding a player for the Redskins in both of my mock drafts. They aren’t exactly set anywhere, but their needs don’t jump off their depth chart. Except on the defensive line, and I didn’t think there would be any player at that position worth taking at this point in the draft.

I understand the concerns that caused Allen to fall in the draft. He isn’t a very good athlete, and I’m worried about how someone his size will hold up on the inside in the NFL. There are also concerns about the health of his shoulders that I can’t speak to. But he was one of the most polished and dominant players in college football a year ago, and I have a hard time imagining him not working out for the Redskins. As a top ten talent I would have been concerned about his lack of upside, but at seventeen he is an absolute best case scenario.

Worst Pick – Adoree Jackson, CB, Tennessee Titans

In a vacuum I probably would have given this award to the Texans for giving up two first round picks of Deshaun Watson. But I’ve covered that already, so I decided to go a different direction.

It was interesting looking back on the draft and realizing that the two biggest non-QB reaches were made by the Titans. I was surprised when they took Corey Davis fifth overall, but I can at least defend their decision to grab the best wide receiver in the class to help their young quarterback. I can’t understand the move to spend a top twenty pick on a cornerback who is still learning how to cover.

Jackson is a very good athlete (though his combine numbers aren’t as good as he looks on the field), and if he can harness his speed and agility he can become an excellent cornerback. But I haven’t seen any reason to believe yet that he will figure this out, and his value as a returner only goes so far.

I know Tennessee needed a cornerback, and I’m not sure there was one worth taking at this point in the draft. But the Titans have plenty of other holes they could have addressed. Their two starting outside linebackers are 28 and 30. Their inside linebackers are replacement level. If they wanted to add to their secondary it probably would have been better to go with a safety like Baker or Melifonwu. And honestly it wouldn’t have been a bad move to add another weapon for Mariota in a player like OJ Howard. Instead they reached for someone who is not ready to help their defense right away and who has quite a hill to climb before he reaches that point.

Most Confusing Pick – Ryan Ramczyk, OT, New Orleans Saints

Last night was weird, and there were more than a few picks that made me do a double take as I was watching the draft. Both the Titans selections, Engram over Njoku, the Browns trading up for Peppers. And yet it was the very last pick of the first round that leaves me still scratching my head the next day.

Looking at New Orleans’s depth chart, offensive line doesn’t jump off the board as an immediate need. They have one of the best young players in the league at left tackle. They just added Larry Warford to play right guard. Zach Strieff is on his way out at right tackle, but I still believe they have his replacement already on their roster. They spent the thirteenth selection on Andrus Peat two years ago, and even though he’s slotted in at left guard I believe he has what it takes to bounce to the outside and play left tackle.

I listed above a bunch of names of players who are still available. All of them would have been better choices here for the Saints. Their defense is still a mess, and the addition of Lattimore with their earlier pick isn’t going to fix that. This seems like such a waste to me, a luxury pick meant to address depth for a team that is still working without a reliable first unit.

Awards

I’ll make my actual picks for Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year before the start of the regular season, and they’ll probably be different than what I say here. In fact I might actually go with someone who wasn’t even picked in the first round. But it’s still fun to think and talk about it now, and to throw out my favorite personal made up award at the end.

Offensive Rookie of the Year – Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston Texans

Is it weird that I tore apart the Watson selection above and am now picking him to win rookie of the year? Yeah, a little. But the simple rule of this award is that if there’s a quarterback in the conversation, he is going to win it. And of the quarterbacks who were drafted last night, Watson is in the best situation to find his way onto the field and to utilize the talent around him. He is going to win the starting job for the Texans, and he’ll be supported from day one by DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, Braxton Miller, and Lamar Miller. It will be easy enough for him to manage this talent, and to compete in what will likely still be one of the softest divisions in the league. He doesn’t have to be good to win this award. He just has to avoid being a disaster.

Defensive Rookie of the Year – Malik Hooker, S, Indianapolis Colts

I strongly considered Garrett here, but I’m sick of writing about Garrett. So I’ll take a flyer on Hooker, who has the skills and the situation to put up some eye popping numbers this year. He has some work to do before he’s a truly great defensive player, but his speed and ball skills will translate immediately to the NFL. The Colts could end up in a lot of shootouts this year, and Hooker will be waiting at the back to swing the game with a massive interception.

The Odell Beckham Award for Player I Am Most Likely to Be Terribly Wrong About

Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina

I didn’t think McCaffrey was a first round talent, but the Panthers ended up selecting him in the top ten. And all the reasons I have to be concerned about him remain valid. I worry that even though he’s a great athlete, on film he doesn’t show the first step burst to make his patient running style effective. He’s easy to bring down, and I fear he’ll spend most of his career dancing in the backfield working to find a lane.

But if McCaffrey can develop into a consistent every down running back, he can be one of the premier weapons in the NFL. No matter what he’s going to be a constant threat as a receiver, either coming out of the backfield or lined up in the slot. His route running is phenomenal, and in open space he is almost impossible to catch.

I’m very interested to see how Carolina will use him. Despite having a quarterback perfectly suited for the spread out modern NFL game, they run one of the most backwards offensive schemes in the NFL. They focus on running power between the tackles, and they prefer to attack defenses deep down the field in the passing game. McCaffrey won’t fit well into this scheme, and if they adapt their offense to feature him it could open things up for Cam Newton to take his game to another level. This could be a match made in heaven, if McCaffrey can live up to his potential and the coaches can figure out how to use him.