Talent and Scheme

Championship weekend has come and gone, and it was about as unmemorable as it could have been. After a thrilling Sunday picked up the Divisional round, there were hopes that this would be the start of a new trend. Unfortunately, we found ourselves back on the same road we traveled for the first six games of the postseason, with a pair of contests that the home favorites ran away with.

But interesting or not, the games did their job. We’re down to two teams, and this is about the best matchup we could have hoped for. These were the two best teams coming into the postseason, and they showed what they were worth with a pair of easy victories.

Both teams won in blowouts on Sunday, but they did so in different ways. These teams are strong from top to bottom, built around elite quarterbacks, excellent coaching, and depth of talent across the roster. But they faced very different standards of competition this past weekend, standards that asked them to prove that they could win in very different ways.

New England Patriots

We’ll leave chronological order behind and start with New England’s victory over Pittsburgh. This was a game I expected to be a lot closer than it was, as the Patriots faced off against a team loaded with star talent and riding a nine game winning streak. And while I stand by my claim that Pittsburgh is the more talented team, the results on the field speak for themselves, as the superior coaching and strategy of New England carried them to a blowout win.

The main story is on the other side of the ball, but we need to give credit to the Patriots defense for holding the Steelers to a meager 17 points. On pure talent alone, New England’s defense cannot match up against Pittsburgh’s offense. Not many teams can, going against Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown, and Ben Roethlisberger working behind a top five offensive line. But on Sunday the Patriots found a way to overcome their shortcomings thanks to masterful schematic work.

Let’s make one thing clear before we go on: everything I say is with the understanding that Bell played only eleven snaps before going out with a groin injury. His absence greatly limited Pittsburgh’s offense, and it made everything New England was trying to do a whole lot easier. But it did not decide this game, and it didn’t change the gameplan for the Patriots defense.

Much has been made about New England’s desire to “take away whatever their opponent does best”. In general this is a bit overblown, but in this game it clearly was the driving factor of New England’s scheme. From the very first snap they played defense with the clear philosophy that they were not going to let Brown beat them on the edges.

The Patriots typically align their cornerbacks in a way that differs from most NFL teams. Rather than having their best cornerback Malcolm Butler line up opposite the offense’s top receiver, they put him man on man against the number two, and leave their second cornerback with safety help against the number one. This game, however, they changed up their strategy, using Butler against Brown while also keeping a safety over the top.

But putting their best cover guy in double coverage against Brown, they effectively neutralized him in the passing game. He managed only seven catches for 77 yards, a disappointing output for the league’s best receiver.

The downside of this strategy is that it leaves an offense’s secondary receivers free to tear through the weaker coverage on the backside of a defense, and this was absolutely the case in this game. Pittsburgh had all they could have wanted for their other receiving targets, but unfortunately they don’t have the quality of depth at receiver to take advantage of it.

Sammie Coates busted open deep early in the game, only to predictably drop a likely touchdown. Cobi Hamilton and Jesse James similarly struggled with drops. De’Angelo Williams managed to find himself wide open on several occasions, but he doesn’t have the explosiveness or the natural receiving skills that set Bell apart from other running backs. The one consistent offensive threat for Pittsburgh was Eli Rogers, but even he cost them with a second half fumble that ended any hope they had of a comeback.

Pittsburgh’s lack of offensive production was the result of excellent scheming by New England, but the true master work came on the other side of the ball. The Patriots had whatever they wanted against an overmatched Steelers defense, and they rode Chris Hogan to an offensive explosion that put the game out of reach.

Pittsburgh is one of the heaviest users of zone coverage in the NFL. This is largely a decision of necessity, as they simply don’t have the personnel to match up in man to man coverage. And for most of the season they were able to cobble together an above average defense this way, compressing in the red zone to take away passing lanes and tricking quarterbacks into costly turnovers.

The problem with a zone is that it only works if the opposing team doesn’t have a quarterback and receivers capable of recognizing the holes in it. And New England just so happens to have the best quarterback and best set of wide receivers at exploiting this style of defense. Tom Brady has tormented the Steelers for years for this very reason, and it will remain a serious issue down the road if the Steelers ever hope to get past the one team in the AFC who can match up with them on the field.

Atlanta Falcons

If the story for New England was one of technical brilliance overwhelming a competitive level of talent, then the story of the other game was how sometimes talent can be enough. Atlanta is an excellently coached football team, with a wizard of an offensive coordinator who constantly puts his players in the best position to succeed. But on Sunday none of that mattered, as they beat the Packers down by virtue of being better on the field at every single position.

This wasn’t a secret coming into the game. Green Bay is not a particularly good football team, and they made it this far only thanks to a superhuman effort by Aaron Rodgers. Through two playoff weeks this was looking like another example of how far a superstar at quarterback can carry a bottom ten roster, until he ran up against a quarterback capable of matching his play.

Let me make it perfectly clear where I stand on this. Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in the league. Matt Ryan outplayed him this season, he deserves the MVP award, and he was the better player on Sunday as well. But if you gave me one player to take from any team in the league, I would grab Rodgers in a heartbeat and probably not even think any other names.

But that’s a different story than the one we witnessed on Sunday. On Sunday we saw a quarterback who got everything he could have wanted and took full advantage of it, against a quarterback who came up short because he couldn’t elevate his teammates to that same level. Rodgers wasn’t the problem for the Packers, but the fact remains that they have no hope against an opponent like this when he isn’t beyond perfect, and his performance on Sunday fell far short of that mark.

The Falcons won the quarterback battle, and with the way they dominated everywhere else on the roster that was really all they needed to put this out of reach. They didn’t find much success running the football, but they didn’t need it, as they moved the ball at will through the air. Even when things went poorly, they still found ways to succeed, converting on ten of the thirteen third downs they faced.

Green Bay’s defense is slightly below average when healthy, and they have not been healthy in a very long time. With Sam Shields on injured reserve and both Damarious Randall and Quinton Rollins struggling with injuries throughout the year, they were forced to turn to second year undrafted free agent Ladarius Gunter as their top cornerback. If they hadn’t realized already, Gunter’s humiliation last week against Dez Bryant showed them that he had no hope against Julio Jones, and they sent a safety that way for help the entire game.

The problem is, even a safety wasn’t enough to stop Jones. Unlike the Steelers the Falcons have enough weapons that they can move the ball consistently without their star involved, and they found plenty of success scheming plays to produce big yards for Mohamed Sanu and their other secondary receiving options.

But even when they went at Jones, they still were able to get whatever they wanted. Jones’s strength and athleticism is unmatched in the NFL, and he made multiple plays that no other receiver could even dream of. He ran at will through Green Bay’s secondary, catching everything thrown his way and making tacklers look like fools as he sprinted through them and past them down the field.

Atlanta’s dominance on offense was thorough enough to win them the game, but their performance on defense is what made it a blowout. After some early struggles that ended in good luck with a missed field goal and a costly fumble by Aaron Ripkowski, Atlanta clamped down on Green Bay’s potent offense and held them scoreless through the first half. The Packers got nothing on the ground, and even when receivers ran open in the defensive backfield they weren’t able to complete enough to consistently move down the field.

The one area that I expected Green Bay to have a clear advantage was along the offensive line. Atlanta got great production down the stretch from Vic Beasley, but the rest of their line was a genuine problem area, as they struggled to generate pressure outside their star.

That wasn’t the case in this game. Every player along their defensive line played spectacularly, but particular praise has to go to Ra’Shede Hageman. A second round draft pick in 2014, I’ve mentioned Hageman here before as someone Atlanta desperately needed to step up. And step up he did, with the best performance of his life on the biggest stage. Hageman has always been up and down, but when he harnesses his pure gifts, this 6-6 311 pound monstrosity is capable of doing mind blowing things. He tossed linemen aside like they were nothing on the way to the backfield, recording a sack and three tackles for a loss.

Atlanta was the best team in the NFC this year, thanks in large part to the performance of their quarterback and their offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan. But they really didn’t need either of those things on Sunday. They went out, and the beat down a Packers team that didn’t even belong on the field with them, showing off the breathtaking skill and athleticism that will make them a nightmare for the Patriots ten days from now.

Secrets of the Final Four

There are 267 games in an NFL season, and 264 are in the books. We’re down to the final four teams, each of which has played at least seventeen games. The four teams remaining are among the most interesting and most covered in the league, and they’ve all been in multiple primetime, nationally televised games.

At this point we know what these teams are. The Patriots are a well oiled machine that doesn’t look terrifying on paper but runs away from the competition thanks to a historically great quarterback and the greatest coach in NFL history. The Steelers are a high flying offense powered by the best running back in football, the best receiver in football, and a top ten quarterback. The Falcons exploded onto the scene carried by an MVP performance by Matt Ryan. And the Packers have Aaron Rodgers.

I’ve written a lot of words about these teams over the course of the year, and at this point it’s growing tiring repeating the same things over and over. So going into the biggest game of each team’s season, let’s try to find something new to say. We’ve watched these teams a lot, but there are always details that slip through the cracks. So let’s take a moment to look at things we might not know about these teams, the secret strengths and secret weaknesses that will decide the games on Sunday.

Green Bay Packers

Secret Strength: Run Defense

This is a difficult one to point to right now, less than a week after Ezekiel Elliott rang off 125 yards on only 22 carries. The Cowboys got whatever they wanted on the ground, and if they had stuck with the run more consistently in the first half, the outcome very well could have gone the other way.

But aside from a couple bad performances against the Cowboys, the Packers run defense has been very stout all season. They finished the season ranked 14^th in DVOA against the run, not elite by any means but a far sight better than their 22^nd ranked pass defense. And in the first game of the postseason they effectively shut down Paul Perkins, the talented Giants rookie who came in averaging 4.4 yards per carry over the final quarter of the season before putting up a measly 30 yards on ten carries against Green Pay.

Green Bay’s strength starts along their front with the perennially underrated Mike Daniels. While Clay Matthews continues to get all the love, Daniels has been the best player on this defense for the past three years. He anchors the middle and allows defenders to flow behind him, and when asked he can generate good push up the field as well. Recently he’s been aided by rookie first round pick Kenny Clark, who’s come on strong during their postseason run.

The Packers have a major task ahead of them trying to slow down Atlanta’s offense. And while they likely have no hope keeping up with their receivers down the field, their defensive front gives them some hope of containing Atlanta’s talented running back duo. The Packers won’t be able to stop the Falcons, but they can at least force them to become one dimensional.

Secret Weakness: Wide Receivers

So much has been made about how great Aaron Rodgers has been that we haven’t discussed how great he has had to be. We know Green Bay’s defense is a mess, and we know their running back situation is dire. But as this passing game has clicked along, we’ve allowed ourselves to be blinded to the fact that Green Bay has one of the worst receiving corps in the league.

The names involved fool some people, but the Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb we see on the field look nothing like the players they were three years ago. Nelson still doesn’t show any sign of the elite speed that made him a top ten receiver prior to his knee injury, and when he isn’t improvising as Rodgers scrambles around behind the line he really can't generate any separation. Cobb has been banged up as well, and it’s going on two years since we’ve seen him at his best as one of the league’s most dangerous slot receivers.

Their next two most prominent receivers are a different sort of problem. Davante Adams and Jared Cook are capable of making great plays, but they screw up just as many as they create. We all remember Cook’s toe tapping sideline grab to set up the field goal opportunity against Dallas, and we forget the pair of passes that went between his hands earlier in the drive. They’re a danger to defenses, but they’re just as much a danger to the Packers.

In all honesty, Green Bay’s best receiving threat right now might be undrafted rookie Geronimo Allison. He has the size to make plays against tight coverage, and he actually seems to get open as well. Hampered by a leg injury, he remains questionable for Sunday’s game, potentially stripping the Packers of one of their few reliable weapons.

Atlanta Falcons

Secret Strength: Offensive Line

Atlanta has so much talent at the skill positions on offense that it has become easy to forget about the line. They have an MVP candidate at quarterback, the best 1-2 punch at running back in the league, a top three wide receiver, and a couple of valuable free agent additions on the outside. This team has as much depth and talent at the skill positions as any in the league, and it just so happens that the big guys blocking for them are a top notch unit as well.

Continuity has been a major key to their success this year. The Falcons are the only team to start the same five linemen in every game, and their familiarity working with each other has helped patch up any weak spots across the front. Jake Matthews is the biggest name, and even though he hasn’t developed into the surefire star we thought he was when he went sixth overall in the draft, he has proven to be a solid and reliable left tackle, something few teams in the league possess.

But the real star of this unit is in the very middle. After toiling for years in Cleveland, Alex Mack found new life signing as a free agent with the Falcons. He has completely turned this unit around, much as the return of Ryan Kalil rejuvenated the NFC Champion Panthers a year ago. The importance of a center in stabilizing a front is difficult to measure, but for the second year in a row we are seeing just how valuable that position can be with its ability to paper over other flaws in an offensive front.

Secret Weakness: Pass Rush

It’s easy to get fall in love with a dominant pass rusher. We spent all of last offseason lauding Super Bowl MVP for Von Miller before watching him receive a well deserved record contract. His combination of talent, performance, and personality won us over, making it conveniently easy to forget that he did not carry Denver’s dominant pass rush alone. The five sacks he accumulated during their playoff run were certainly noteworthy, but they were only five out of fourteen total that the Broncos had during that three game run.

A dominant pass rusher is great. But a dominant pass rush is even better, and just because you have the first doesn’t mean you have the second. Vic Beasley led the league with 15.5 sacks, but the Falcons as a whole finished only tied for 16^th. They fared even worse when you look at advanced stats, where their adjusted sack rate of 5.4% ranked 24^th in the league.

Atlanta’s pass rush certainly looked imposing a week ago, but any NFL team could do that against the Seahawks. It will be a much different challenge going up against the Green Bay Packers this weekend. Green Bay boasts arguably the best pass blocking line in the league, and they are only helped by the presence of Rodgers, a master of movements within the pocket to give himself space to throw. To get at Rodgers you need to be able to attack from three angles at once, to get penetration while also closing down the escape lanes. And as good as Beasley is, he can’t be everywhere at once, and he will need help from the thin unit around him in order to successfully harass Rodgers.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Secret Strength: Secondary

The back end of Pittsburgh’s defense has been so bad for so long that it still feels like I might be missing something. Much of the credit for their recent run of defensive success has gone to their pass rush, particularly their linebackers. James Harrison is an ageless machine, Bud Dupree is an athletic freak finding his own, and Ryan Shazier moves like he may actually be part gazelle. The emergence and health of this unit has certainly played a major role in their turnaround, but more of the credit rightfully goes to their secondary.

In last April’s draft the Steelers used each of their first two picks on defensive backs, and both are now installed in the starting lineup. First round pick Artie Burns was seen as  a development project at cornerback, a talented athlete who was more of a track star than a football player. And while he has been burned for big plays several times this year, he has proven himself to be at the very least a capable starter, which has given them the flexibility to bump William Gay into a more comfortable position in the slot.

The real star is their second round pick Sean Davis. Beside veteran Mike Mitchell (who is having a hell of a year himself), Davis has given them a pair of big hitting and athletic erasers over the middle. Davis flies all over the field in a wide variety of roles, hanging back in a deep Cover-2 zone (which the Steelers use more than any other team in the league), or walked up into the box as a run defender or a blitzer. Davis has experience playing cornerback, and he can keep up in coverage as well as he can hit, giving Pittsburgh the kind of versatility and depth in the defensive backfield that they haven’t had in a very long time.

Secret Weakness: Secondary Receiving Options

The real secret weakness of the Steelers is at quarterback. But I’ve addressed that already on multiple occasions, so we should turn to another hole in this team, one that certainly isn’t helping Ben Roethlisberger out. The Steelers have the best running back and best wide receiver in football, and often that is enough to put together an elite offense. But when they do have to turn to their secondary options, they find that the talent at these positions is sorely lacking.

Part of this is just bad luck. A year ago Pittsburgh had one of the five best number two receivers in the league, the freakishly athletic and dynamic Martavis Bryant. He gave them an elite down the field threat, a receiver with the speed to stretch a defense over the top and the size to make plays on the ball in the air. But a combination of his stupidity and the league’s archaic drug rules forced him to miss the entire season, and the Steelers were left with little to work with on the outside.

After number two receiver Markus Wheaton went down for the season, the most experienced receiver on their roster was former draft bust Darrius Heyward-Bey, who they keep around mostly for his skills on special teams. The other four receivers currently on their active roster came into the 2016 season with a total of one career catch between them.

These young players have impressed so far, and there is definitely reason to be excited about their future. But the Steelers don’t need their future as much as their present, and they are lacking the skills to consistently challenge NFL defenses right now. The biggest absence is a true deep threat, something the Steelers hope they can find if tight end Ladarius Green is able to return from the concussion protocol this weekend. If he can go, that adds a dimension to this offense that may be able to push it over the top. If not, the Steelers may be placing too much on the shoulders of their offensive stars.

New England Patriots

Secret Strength: Running Backs

New England’s offense is always a little more talented than we realize. They have a habit of collecting skilled players who don’t fit the traditional mold that talent evaluators look for. They don’t grab the big, freakish athletes that everyone else falls in love with. Instead they try to find players who slip through the margins that they can slide into productive roles in their system thanks to their excellent coach and quarterback.

The classic example of this is Julian Edelman, who continues to produce despite not being the player everyone thinks he is. (Seriously, watch him in this game. I guarantee at some point he will drop a pass, and I guarantee that it will be followed by the commentator saying something along the lines of “a rare drop by Edelman”. He’s good for about one of these a game.)

This year New England has expanded their stable of weapons to a pair of quietly fantastic running backs. Dion Lewis was a surprise star of the first half of 2015 prior to a knee injury that cost him the beginning part of 2016 as well. The Patriots kept him in reserve for most of the regular season, before unleashing him last week to the tune of a rushing touchdown, a receiving touchdown, and a kickoff return touchdown. He has been an underrated star since his college days, and he found the perfect landing spot in New England.

The other option in New England’s backfield is the exact opposite of the small, shifty Lewis. LeGarrette Blount is a big, physical runner who specializes in capitalizing in the red zone. He scored 18 touchdowns this year, more than half of which came from one yard out. The combination of the two gives New England some much needed variety in their offense, which gives Tom Brady more freedom to make plays down the field.

Secret Weakness: Pass Coverage

New England has pulled a remarkable trick this year, convincing the average fan that their defense is actually good. And while leading the league in fewest points allowed is certainly a worthy goal, it’s less notable when you do it against the opposition the Patriots have faced.

Let’s take a quick run through the quarterbacks New England has gone up against this year. The two best are probably Carson Palmer and Russell Wilson, in games that saw the Patriots go 1-1 thanks only to a bad missed field goal by the Cardinals. Within their division they had a pair of games against Tyrod Taylor and one against Ryan Tannehill. Quality quarterbacks, but not something that will scare any defense.

And then we get to the rest of their schedule. In the other twelve games they’ve played, the Patriots have faced off against Cody Kessler, Andy Dalton, Landry Jones, Colin Kaepernick, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jared Goff, Joe Flacco, Trevor Siemian, Bryce Petty, Matt Moore, and twice against Brock Osweiler.

Roethlisberger hasn’t been playing well, but he’s still better than anyone on that list. There were holes throughout the defense a week ago against Houston, and any human being with a functioning arm will be able to hit passes against them (just bad luck the Texans didn’t have one of those.) There will be opportunities down the field, against a pass rush that can’t create consistent pressure and a secondary that can’t keep up with even league average wide receivers.