2016 Regular Season Wrapup

The regular season has ended, and the playoffs are about to begin. Twelve teams remain, with eleven games (twelve if you count the Pro Bowl) to go. But that doesn’t mean we should forget about the other 20 teams, or about the 256 games (320 if you count the preseason) we have already seen.

So before I move on to talking about the playoffs, let’s take some time to wrap up the regular season. We’ll start by looking at the coaching vacancies that have opened up across the league, listed in descending order of how appealing I feel they are. And after that we’ll move to the awards that will be handed out for performances over the course of the regular season.

Coaching Openings

Denver Broncos

Gary Kubiak’s retirement was probably the biggest surprise, but given the health issues he’s struggled with, it doesn’t come out of nowhere. It also comes at a good time for him, as the Broncos are trending down in a division that is generally trending up. Both sides of the ball dropped off sharply after their Super Bowl season, and there isn’t a lot of reason to believe they’re going to bounce back next year. They don’t have a solution at quarterback, and they have a lot of money tied up in a handful of veterans.

That said, there are pieces to like in Denver, which is more than you can say about most of the openings below. They still have a handful of stars on the defensive side, and even in a down year they produced two 1000 yard receivers. They also have a stable staff in place on the defensive side of the ball, which leaves them in a good position to add a young offensive mind and give him limited responsibilities over the rest of the organization. Kyle Shanahan makes too much sense, for more than just the family connections. If he can revitalize this offense like he did in Atlanta, this team can compete in the AFC again next year.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Top to bottom Jacksonville has the most impressive roster of any of these teams. They have a trio of extremely talented young receivers, an offensive line that is slowly coming together, and a defense that took a major step forward with an influx of young talent this year. Add another top five selection, and this team could be set for years to come.

Except at quarterback, which is kind of a big deal. Any progress Blake Bortles looked like he was making went sharply backwards this year, and he was probably the worst quarterback in the league (non Jared Goff division). Whether or not they move on from him this offseason, there really isn’t a great solution walking through that door. It’s an unappealing situation, one that mars an otherwise promising roster.

San Diego Chargers

The Chargers are pretty much the opposite of the Jaguars. They have the quarterback position set, with not a lot to like on the rest of their roster, in a division that leaves them very little margin for error. Philip Rivers remains great, and they have some really nice pieces in Joey Bosa, Jason Verrett, Casey Heyward, and Keenan Allen. But they can’t keep those pieces on the field, and at this point it’s probably unrealistic to hope for that to change.

This team is in a weird position with their windows. Rivers gives them a chance to win now, but the rest of their roster is set up to succeed in two or three years, once they develop their young stars and bring in some more talent. There might be some overlap there, and this possibility will certainly be enticing to a lot of coaching candidates. But if Rivers declines quickly or they can’t add new talent, they could be looking at a long rebuilding project.

Buffalo Bills

The big question with this team is what to do with Tyrod Taylor. The clear answer is that they should keep him, but their decision to retain GM Doug Whaley suggests that they are going to make the mistake of letting him go. And the sudden gap at the quarterback position only makes this opening look worse. Now in addition to an offense built around an aging running back and a defense lacking an identity, they’re going to be without a player who can get the ball to their one true superstar Sammy Watkins.

I’m not saying that Rex Ryan did a good job or deserved not to be fired. But when they fired him they should have done the exact same thing with Whaley. This roster is an absolute mess, cobbled together with a bunch of shiny pieces that don’t go together and don’t add much value. And now it looks like they’re going to undo the one good move they made, leaving them with Cardale Jones as their first option under center. And the new coach is going to be selected by the guy responsible for this mess, and have to work with him to try to build something out of this disaster.

Los Angeles Rams

When you first start looking at the Rams roster, it’s easy to get excited. They have Aaron Donald, one of the best defensive players in the league. They have Todd Gurley, who looked extremely good in his rookie season before the offensive line fell apart. And they have Jared Goff, the first overall pick of last year’s draft.

And after that? Not really anything to like. Tavon Austin is bad and overpaid. Greg Robinson is a bust. And they are without a first round pick this year, thanks to Goff. And to talk about Goff, we have to acknowledge that he just put together maybe the worst rookie season in NFL history. He looked like someone who had never thrown a football before in his life, and he could make a significant jump next year and still be the worst quarterback in the league. This team is thin, has no assets to work with, and may be screwed for years to come after going all in on a quarterback who shows no indication of being able to play in the NFL. It’s almost impossible to imagine how this isn’t the worst coaching situation in the league.

San Francisco 49ers

And yet, somehow the Rams aren’t even the worst coaching situation in their division. San Francisco is bottom of the barrel, as devoid of talent as any team in the league. They need to rebuild their offensive line, find anything at wide receiver, add to their secondary and linebacking corps, and discover a pass rush. Also, they need a quarterback.

The good news? They have a high draft pick and a lot of cap room. This team is not completely screwed, just for the next three or four years. Unfortunately, that’s also the length of the leash given to head coaches, and it could be even shorter for a team with this instability at ownership. The 49ers are what the Jaguars were when they hired Gus Bradley, a team so devoid of hope that there almost isn’t any point in a serious candidate accepting a job they have no chance of succeeding in.

Awards

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Ezekiel Elliott, RB Dallas Cowboys

There are two possible candidates for this award. Tyreek Hill has certainly raced his way into the conversation in recent weeks, and Carson Wentz had those three good games at the beginning of the year. But from start to finish this has been about the Dallas Cowboys.

So who should it be? Ezekiel Elliott or Dak Prescott? Normally in a quarterback vs running back debate the quarterback will have the edge, and we can’t ignore the added value of Prescott’s position. But Elliott led the league in rushing, while Prescott was probably not even a top five quarterback in the league this season. So which is more deserving? A great running back, or a good quarterback? I’m not sure if there is a right answer, but I’m going to go with Elliott.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Joey Bosa, DE San Diego Chargers

This award comes down to two players, and it touches on an issue that has been an important conversation for one of the other major awards. How exactly are you supposed to give out awards when the best player has missed time during the season? In this case, the players I am referring to are Jalen Ramsey, who played every game, and Joey Bosa, who only played in 12.

The answer to me comes down to simple math. The question is about value, so we should look at the cumulative value provided. If a player produced at a higher level but only did so for 3/4 of a season, then he deserves the award only if his per game performance was more than 4/3 that of every other competitor.

Obviously this is an issue in the MVP race as well, and we’ll get to that. But in the case of Defensive Rookie of the Year, it’s actually a much more interesting problem. Because as good as Ramsey has been (and he has been spectacular), it’s very possible that Bosa’s performance has eclipsed that 4/3 mark. He’s been more productive than Ramsey, he’s been more consistent than Ramsey, and he plays a more valuable position than Ramsey. And for all these reasons, I give him a slight edge as Defensive Rookie of the Year.

Comeback Player of the Year: Le’Veon Bell, RB Pittsburgh Steelers

This is an extremely crowded field without a single obvious candidate. Cameron Wake was rejuvenated as a pass rusher after many thought his career was over. Jimmy Graham returned from a devastating knee injury to show some flashes of the dynamic player he used to be. Jordy Nelson missed all of last year with a torn ACL and came back to lead the league in touchdown receptions.

Nelson is probably the best of those candidates, and I think he’ll ultimately win it. But I’m going to go a slightly different direction and give it to Le’Veon Bell. People seem to forget that he tore both his MCL and PCL in November of 2015, and he came back to be arguably the best running back in the league this year. Despite missing four games (three due to suspension and one due to a meaningless Week 17 matchup), he finished fifth in the league in rushing, ahead of players like LeSean McCoy, David Johnson, and Davonte Freeman. Add his productivity as a receiver, and his 157 yards from scrimmage per game is the third highest mark in NFL history among players to have played at least 12 games. Bell put together a historically great season, and he did it less than a year removed from a major knee injury.

Coach of the Year: Jason Garrett, Dallas Cowboys

There were a lot of impressive coaching performances this year. Jack Del Rio finally delivered on the promise of a young Raiders team. Jim Caldwell kept the Lions fighring through countless late game deficits. Dan Quinn helped along a young defense while riding a revitalized Matt Ryan. Bill Belichick finished with the best record in the league despite being without Tom Brady for four games. And both Mike McCarthy and Mike Tomlin overcame early season struggles and rode long winning streaks into the postseason.

But come on. The Cowboys earned the top seed in the NFL with a rookie starting at quarterback and a rookie starting at running back. They pieced together a functional defense out of one of the most patchwork units in the league. They dealt with almost weekly quarterback controversy starting even before Tony Romo was healthy enough to play. Garrett is going to win this award, and he should do so running away.

Defensive Player of the Year: Von Miller, OLB Denver Broncos

This is probably the toughest pick of all the awards, and not because the field is particularly strong. I’m not sure if there’s really anyone I can point to as being clearly deserving of this award. Aaron Donald dominated in the disaster that was Los Angeles, but it’s hard for even him to escape the stink of a team that’s worse than its 4-12 record. Vic Beasley came on strong for Atlanta as the year went along to lead the league with 15.5 sacks, but he offered very little beyond pass rush.

This award ultimately comes down to two dominant AFC West edge players. Von Miller was the favorite for most of the year, but Khalil Mack pushed him down the stretch. Miller had 2.5 more sacks, but Mack had two more forced fumbles and an interception. And most people will probably lean towards Mack because his team made the playoffs, over a Broncos team that fell just short.

I’m conflicted on weighing team success in award decisions, but this one seems particularly shortsighted. Mack was on a better team, but that had pretty much nothing to do with him or the defense. Oakland’s defense was one of the worst in the league this year, a performance that was just barely enough that their elite offense could carry them. On the other hand, Denver put together a top ten defense that was hindered by their offense. I think Miller had the better season, and I think it would be insane to justify the Mack pick based on Derek Carr being a better quarterback than Trevor Siemian.

MVP: Matt Ryan, QB Atlanta Falcons

I look at the MVP debate, and more than anything else I find myself confused. The way I see it there is one very clear frontrunner, and there really shouldn’t be any debate at all. But maybe I’m missing something, so let’s start from the beginning and work our way through this.

When discussing the NFL MVP, we need to first acknowledge that it’s probably going to a quarterback. No wide receiver or offensive lineman (ha!) has ever won, and it takes an extraordinary year from a running back to do so. Elliott and Johnson have played very well, but neither has touched historic levels. If Bell had played all 16 games at this level, maybe he’d have a case. But as good as he’s been, I don’t think it touches the 4/3 level I discussed above.

I’ve also mentioned my ambivalence to the Defensive Player of the Year field, so that pretty much leaves us with a quarterback. But that doesn’t simplify things either, since there have been a lot of quarterbacks thrown into the argument. Tom Brady only played twelve games, but he set a record for touchdown to interception ratio. Aaron Rodgers tore the league to pieces during Green Bay’s six game playoff run. Dak Prescott, Matt Ryan, Derek Carr, and Matthew Stafford also get mentioned, in a crowded field where everyone seems to have their own favorites.

I had my winner listed above, so there’s no suspense in what I believe. But to make it clear why I believe it, let’s take a look at some stats. Below I’ve listed the twelve main quarterbacks for each playoff team and ranked them 1-12 in major passing stats to give a sense of how these quarterbacks stack up against each other.

	Yards	Cmp %	TD	INT	Y/A	Rating	QBR	ANY/A
Matt Ryan	1	1	2	4.5	1	1	1	1
Tom Brady	9	3	4.5	1	2	2	2	2
Aaron Rodgers	2	6	1	4.5	8	4	4	4
Dak Prescott	8	2	8	2	3	3	3	3
Matthew Stafford	3	7	7	7	7	8	5	7
Derek Carr	6	10	4.5	3	10	5	9	5
Ben Roethlisberger	7	9	3	10	6	6	6	6
Russell Wilson	4	8	9	8	4	9	8	8
Alex Smith	10	5	11.5	6	9	10	7	9
Ryan Tannehill	11	4	10	9	5	7	12	10
Eli Manning	5	11	6	11.5	11	11	11	11
Brock Osweiler	12	12	11.5	11.5	12	12	10	12

A few things are clear from this table. First is that Brock Osweiler is laughably terrible. The second is that there is no statistical argument to support anyone other than Matt Ryan for MVP. He is first in every category except touchdowns and interceptions, and he is hardly lacking in those categories. In comparison, Rodgers only finishes higher than fourth in two of the eight categories. The closest to Ryan is Brady, but once again we go to the 4/3 number. He isn’t near that mark on a game by game basis. In fact, he’s below Ryan on even that level.

The arguments that support the other candidates really aren’t great arguments. Rodgers won six straight to close the year, but so did Roethlisberger, and you aren’t hearing people push him for MVP. Over that same span Ryan went 5-1 with very comparable stats to Rodgers’s. Brady has been efficient by throwing only two interceptions and setting a record with a 28-2 TD/INT ratio, which sounds impressive until you realize the previous record was Nick Foles’s 27-2 season.

Matt Ryan has been the best player in the league this season. His Y/A off 9.26 is the second highest of all time, more than a full yard ahead of second place Tom Brady this season. Brady is closer to 15^th place than he is to first. And yes, Ryan has benefited from a great supporting cast, but he has also put up these numbers against a murderer’s row of defenses that include Seattle, Denver, and Kansas City. He led the Falcons to a first round bye despite a well below average defense, and with Julio Jones missing a couple games. In the MVP race, there is only one correct choice, and I don’t see why people are treating it like there’s any debate to be had.