The Flaws of the Wild Card Winners

The first weekend of the NFL playoffs is in the books, and what a weekend it was. Four tensely fought contests between some of the best teams in the league, each coming down the wire and being pulled out in the final seconds by spectacular plays that set the stage for the second round.

Obviously, I’m joking. The first round of the playoffs was as noncompetitive as it gets. The closest of the four games was Houston’s 27-14 victory over Oakland, which was somehow not as tight as the 13 point margin indicates. The four games saw a combined margin of victory of 76 points, an NFL record that fell disappointingly short of my prediction of 80 points (this is actually a prediction I made prior to the first game, and I have the text conversation to prove it.)

The games weren’t worth much, but they did reveal something we had suspected all along. As wide open as things are at the top of the league, there is a very clear cut between the upper tier and the teams below. Oakland, Detroit, Miami, and New York all had very good seasons to make the playoffs, and they should all be optimistic about the future (except maybe the Giants). But the teams that advanced were the ones everyone expected to advance, and they’ll have a chance to compete going forward.

Okay, except for Houston. Somehow the Texans remain alive, despite genuinely being a bottom ten team in the league. Their first round matchup was a pretty good summary of their season, a victory over a much better team due to the incredible luck of getting to face a third string rookie. No one believes they have any hope against New England this coming weekend, and hopefully we’ll soon be able to forget that this was actually one of the final eight teams remaining in the playoffs this year.

But apart from the Texans, the opening round was a showcase of why people are excited about the potential of the victorious teams going forward. Seattle’s offense looked more dynamic than it has all year behind a finally healthy Thomas Rawls. Pittsburgh dismantled Miami on the backs of its offensive stars. And Aaron Rodgers is once again showing that his best is miles ahead of what anyone else in the NFL is humanly capable of, and that he is enough to carry the Packers to victory.

The first round of the playoffs showed these teams at their best, but it also revealed serious flaws in their makeups. All three have the potential to continue their run deep into the postseason. But even in victory, they showed signs of why they will likely be heading home after this coming weekend.

Seattle Seahawks: Offensive Line

We’ve known that Seattle’s offensive line has been a problem all year long, and this seems like a strange time to bring it up again. Their victory over Detroit was one of the most impressive performances by this team all season, showing rare explosiveness on offense and silencing any concerns about their defense. They finally look healthy, and this team is deep enough to overcome one weak spot.

The problem is, this offensive line isn’t just a weak spot. It is a catastrophe waiting to happen, a wait that might just be coming to an end. Outside of Minnesota’s injury battered unit this was the worst line in the league this season, and their woes were evident even during their victory against the Lions.

Seattle’s current line situation is an interesting experiment in the value of coaching. The offensive line coach for Seahawks is Tom Cable, former Raiders head coach and one of the most respected position coaches in the entire league. Seattle considers his presence to be one of their most valuable assets, and they believe it is an opportunity to gain an edge against the salary cap.

If a team believes their coach can get the most out of any level of talent, why invest draft capital and cap space in that talent? Rather than bringing in proven veterans or high value rookies, Seattle decided to invest in raw ability, gathering cheap, big athletes together and trusting Cable to build them up. At times this means a converted defensive lineman (JR Sweezy) or a former tight end (Gary Gilliam). At others this means someone like George Fant, a college basketball player who didn’t play a snap of football between eighth grade and his debut in the NFL.

Put it all together, and Seattle has the least money committed to the offensive line of any team in the league. Not only that, if you were to double the cap hit of every player on their line, they would still have the least money committed of any team in the league. And despite their faith in Cable, the results on the field have been everything you would expect from the most bizarre and patchwork unit in the league.

Seattle has survived this weakness so far, but even against Detroit they showed signs of how devastating this will inevitably be. The Lions have one of the worst pass rushes in the league, but that didn’t seem to matter against this line. Russell Wilson spent a large chunk of the day running for his life, from a pass rush that probably wouldn’t even recognize half the quarterbacks they faced this year.

And who is sitting in Seattle’s path but NFL sack leader Vic Beasley. The Falcons don’t have an elite defense by any means, but they have a player perfectly suited to attack Seattle’s weakest point. Beasley will be no match for whoever he ends up facing, and he possesses the athleticism to run down Wilson behind the line of scrimmage. Seattle’s reckless cost saving hasn’t killed them yet this year, but they haven’t faced a challenge like Beasley, and it will take a miracle for them to be up to this challenge.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger

Pittsburgh had by far the most impressive win of any of the teams in the Wild Card round. They blitzed their way through the first quarter against the Dolphins, opening up a 20-0 lead that carried them to a comfortable 30-12 victory. Where Seattle and Green Bay poured it on late, the Steelers burst to an early lead on the legs of Antonio Brown then rode their way through the rest of the game on the back of Le’Veon Bell.

The defense even stepped up against the Dolphins. After allowing Jay Ajayi to light them up for over 200 yards earlier this year, they held him to only 33 yards on 16 carries. They generated more pressure than they have at any point this year, and they kept up their knack for forcing turnovers at critical junctures in the game.

Simple competence is all the Steelers ask of their defense, and that’s what they’re getting right now. This offense has as much talent as any in the league, and there is no defense that is able to counter them when they’re clicking. Their offensive line has developed into one of the best in the league over the past few seasons, and they’re working in some impressive ancillary weapons like Eli Apple and Cobi Hamilton. And of course, they have the best wide receiver and the best running back in football.

All these pieces are working right now for the Steelers, which is why it’s frustrating when their offense hits a rough patch. And there’s really nowhere to point the blame but the longest tenured and presumed most reliable piece of this unit. Ben Roethlisberger is a top notch quarterback and a future Hall of Famer. He’s won two Super Bowls, and he owns every franchise record of note. He is the best quarterback in Steelers history. But right now, he is not a player this team can rely on.

Pittsburgh won easily against Miami, but they did so despite the performance of their quarterback. Roethlisberger wasn’t bad by any means, but he certainly didn’t make any plays of the sort we’re used to seeing from him. He delivered the ball on time and on target, to receivers who made the most of the opportunities they were given.

Against Miami that was more than enough to win them the game. But the question becomes whether that will be enough going forward. Roethlisberger has been all over the place this season, looking unstoppable in some moments and painfully vulnerable in others. A great deal of this variance has coincided with home/road splits, and unfortunately for the Steelers they likely won’t be returning to Pittsburgh again this season.

The talent around Roethlisberger is unmatched across the league, but he seems to have had trouble truly clicking with it. His connection with Brown remains eerie in its precision, but beneath his top receiver he doesn’t have much confidence in the rest of the depth chart. The Steelers have no true reliable deep threat like Mike Wallace or Martavis Bryant, but that doesn’t stop Roethlisberger from forcing a few shots down the field every game. And the success of Bell means the Steelers will often turn into a run-first team (one drive against Miami went 10 plays for 83 yards, every single one of them on the ground). This only seems to aggravate Roethlisberger’s impatience, and he has a tendency to follow success on the ground will forced passes into coverage down the field.

Roethlisberger is still capable of playing at an incredibly high level, and if he can hit that on a consistent basis the Steelers are probably the most dangerous team in the playoffs. But from this point on the margin of error disappears, and they can’t afford any slipups against the competition ahead. Greatness is certainly something Roethlisberger can deliver, but the way he’s playing right now it seems a little much to believe he can sustain it for three straight games.

Green Bay Packers: Everything except Aaron Rodgers

 

The Green Bay Packers are a bad football team. During their four game losing streak in the middle of the season we received a glimpse of the truth, before their quarterback stepped up and carried them forward through a nearly impossible series of spectacular plays against some mediocre competition. And he did it again on Sunday against a Giants team that seemed ideally suited to containing him, leading to a victory that ended up looking extremely easy.

This is one case however where the final score tells a very different story from what happened on the field. The Packers ran away in the second half, but for most of the game they were thoroughly outplayed by the Giants. The Packers had seven total yards in the first quarter, and they didn’t score until the final three minutes of the first half. Their second touchdown came on sheer dumb luck, and things remained close well into the second half.

The truth is, the Giants had every chance to win this game. And they probably would have won too, if not for one specific player. And no, this is not where I go on a tangent blaming Odell Beckham. This is where I go on a tangent blaming Eli Manning.

From the first snap of the game to the final deflating thud, the Giants had receivers running wide open against Green Bay’s secondary. This was as open as receivers get against NFL coverage, and Manning simply wasn’t capable of taking advantage of it. On New York’s first field goal drive, he missed at least three easy opportunities for a touchdown. Early in the drive Sterling Shephard got open deep down the seam. Manning completed the pass, but he underthrew Shephard and put it over the wrong shoulder, allowing the defender to catch up and make the tackle. A few plays later Beckham got wide open in the endzone, and while the pass that went off his hands was officially categorized as a drop, the majority of the blame falls on Manning for again putting it over the wrong shoulder and making it a much more difficult catch than it had to be. And then for good measure Shephard got open in the same part of the endzone, only for Manning to underthrow him again to give the defender a play on the ball.

This happened over and over throughout the game. Beckham received criticism for his three “drops”, but two of them were poor throws that would have required spectacular catches. And just because he is capable of making those catches doesn’t mean we should excuse his quarterback for failing to make simple plays.

The problem is, this wasn’t just a bad game for Manning. He’s been subpar all year, and this was just his latest failure on his biggest stage. Right now there is no question that he is a below average starting quarterback, and I can probably name twenty passers I would take ahead of him right now. Any competent NFL quarterback would have torn this Packers defense to shreds, and unfortunately the Packers will only face competent quarterbacks from this point on.

The issues in Green Bay extend even beyond their defense. Their offensive line is stellar, but the rest of the unit around Rodgers is a grim spectacle. Ty Montgomery has impressed since switching to running back, but he is still a receiver playing an unfamiliar position, going against defenses who put very little thought or effort into defending him.

Green Bay’s wide receivers are their most toxic point. Once a strength of the team, they have become a genuine weakness that is well hidden by masterful quarterback play. Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams put up excellent numbers this year, but neither shows any burst when they’re on the field, and they rarely generate separation. They constantly force Rodgers to throw into tight windows, and they only occasionally make plays on the ball when he does.

This is the problem with Green Bay. Rodgers is a superhero, and he is capable of carrying a team a long way. But the talent around him demands a level of performance that simply can’t be sustained. There will be stretches where he can’t make every throw, like in the early part of the game against the Giants. And against the offenses he’ll face the rest of the way, starting this weekend in Dallas, the defense won’t be able to keep them in it when things turn south. Green Bay can’t stifle an opponent, and they can’ keep up in a shootout either. As great as Rodgers is, he can only cover so much of the stink around him.