2016 Playoff Preview

The first weekend of the playoffs is just around the corner, so I suppose it’s time we start talking about the twelve teams that remain alive. Through sixteen games these teams have shown varying degrees of success and ineptitude, with clear strengths for every unit and clear weaknesses as well. At this point clawing to a title will require as much luck as anything else. Luck within the games, as well as luck with the matchups. Because sometimes it isn’t as much about how you play as who you play.

For each playoff team I’ve gone through and selected a pair of opponents, one they match up particularly well against and one they should be afraid of. I tried to strike a fairly good balance across both conferences, with every team being roughly equal in representation. No one really wants to play the Patriots, and everybody wishes they could play the Texans. This is an evaluation more of style than quality, an attempt to give some sense of what sets these teams up for victory, and what could drag them into defeat.

Dallas Cowboys

Who they want to play: Detroit Lions

Everything the Lions do, the Cowboys do better, and everything the Cowboys struggle with, the Lions struggle worse. Matthew Stafford was a machine this year exploiting defenses underneath, but Dak Prescott was better. Dallas can’t rush the passer, and Detroit is somehow even worse. What the Lions don’t have is an offensive line like Dallas’s or a running back like Ezekiel Elliott. In a game of mirror images, the Cowboys are by far the prettier picture, and if this matchup happens in the second round it will be a cakewalk to the conference championship game.

Who they don’t want to play: New York Giants

I mean, come on. Outside of a meaningless Week 17 contest, the only games the Cowboys lost came against the Giants. And this wasn’t just a coincidence. The Giants are a very poor matchup for Dallas, both on the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. Their defensive front is one of the few deep enough to pose a genuine threat to Dallas’s offensive line, and their physical secondary wreaks havoc with Prescott’s favored quick passing attack. On the other side, the Cowboys are ill equipped to go after New York’s biggest weakness, their putrid offensive line. With no pass rush to threaten the quarterback, Eli Manning is free to sit back and let his receivers work against Dallas’s shaky secondary, producing big plays the Cowboys will struggle to keep up with.

Atlanta Falcons

Who they want to play: Detroit Lions

I almost shudder at the thought of what Atlanta’s offense would do to Detroit’s defense. There would simply be no stopping the Falcons, as the best offense in the league faced off against arguably the worst defense in the league. And yes, Detroit’s offense is good enough to put up points against Atlanta’s subpar defense. But they simply don’t have enough to keep up, as this game would become the sort of fast paced, high scoring game the Falcons have been winning all season.

Who they don’t want to play: Dallas Cowboys

Atlanta’s biggest weakness is their secondary, but it isn’t one of the high octane passing threats that poses a risk to them. Their offense is good enough to keep up in a shootout with the Lions or the Packers, but against a more balanced offense they are going to have problems. Atlanta’s defense is so bad that even a middling pass offense like the Cowboys will be able to find success, and the heavy running game will keep Atlanta’s explosive offense trapped on the sideline. It will be difficult for Ryan to establish any sort of rhythm, and they will have to play nearly a perfect game to keep up with Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys.

Seattle Seahawks

Who they want to play: Dallas Cowboys

I listed the Giants above as the team the Cowboys don’t want to play, but Seattle might actually be a worse matchup, for all the same reasons. Their defensive line is deep and strong, and against Dallas they don’t have to worry about Russell Wilson being torn to shreds behind an essentially nonexistent offensive line. The Seahawks defense has struggled lately without Earl Thomas, but the Cowboys don’t pose a major threat down the field, and the rangy athletes on this side of the ball will salivate at the prospect of facing a rookie quarterback who has never seen this combination of size, speed, and instincts.

Who they don’t want to play: Atlanta Falcons

Seattle’s defense is hobbled by the absence of Thomas, and no team is in better shape to take advantage of that than the Falcons. In what is the likely second round matchup, the Seahawks will presumably match Richard Sherman against Julio Jones, hoping that his physicality can provide problems for the superstar receiver. Unfortunately, the Falcons have a stable of weapons they’ve lacked in the past, and Taylor Gabriel is primed to tear through the hole in the back end of the defense. And that isn’t even mentioning the other side of the ball, where the prospect of Vic Beasley against Seattle’s offensive line is too grim to even imagine.

Green Bay Pakcers

Who they want to play: Detroit Lions

The Packers beat the Lions a week ago, and it was a lot easier than the 31-24 final score indicated. Rodgers breezed almost untouched through the game, complementing his usual spectacular plays with efficient ease against an overmatched defense. Green Bay's secondary is vulnerable against the pass, but Stafford showed no signs of being able to exploit them on big plays down the field. And Detroit’s running game is toothless enough that the Packers can sell out to get the quarterback, forcing the sort of mistakes Stafford has been lucky to avoid this season.

Who they don’t want to play: Seattle Seahawks

I know the Packers thrashed Seattle just a few weeks ago, but I’m going to hold off judgment on that. Seattle has been a tough matchup for Green Bay for years, and there’s no reason to think that’s changed. With Jordy Nelson still slowed by the knee injury he suffered in 2015, the Packers no longer have a deep threat capable of exploiting the Thomas hole in Seattle’s secondary, and it will take routine acts of magic for Rodgers to move the ball against this defense. He’s capable of it, but it’s asking a lot, while his opposing quarterback will be in a better position to succeed and extra motivated to prove himself after an embarrassing performance earlier this season.

New York Giants

Who they want to play: Atlanta Falcons

New York’s defense is probably the best in the entire playoff field, and they are uniquely suited to stopping Atlanta’s versatile attack. The depth in their secondary is unmatched outside of Denver, and their pass rush is enough to disrupt Atlanta’s above average offensive line. The problems with the Giants come on the other side of the ball, where basically everything falls on the shoulders of Odell Beckham. Fortunately, the holes in Atlanta’s secondary are gaping and numerous, and Beckham should be mostly unopposed running up the sidelines and across the middle.

Who they don’t want to play: Green Bay Packers

There’s being good at defense, and there’s being good enough to stop Aaron Rodgers. This is the sort of game that could turn ugly in a hurry, low scoring and tightly contested as New York’s top notch defense excels and their below average offense struggles. This is the sort of game where a few big plays will make all the difference, and even New York’s defense can’t keep Rodgers bottled up forever. Eventually their rush will lose its discipline, and their overly aggressive secondary will make a mistake and give Green Bay easy points to pull free as the game goes along.

Detroit Lions

Who they want to play: New York Giants

Detroit’s defense is bad. By DVOA they finished last in the league, both overall and specifically against the pass. Any halfway decent quarterback will tear them to shreds, which means they have no hope against any of Rodgers, Wilson, Ryan, or Prescott. In all honesty, Manning is probably good enough to torment them too. But he has enough lapses to keep the Lions in the game, and their short passing game can cause problems for New York’s mediocre linebackers and safeties.

Who they don’t want to play: Seattle Seahawks

Like the Cowboys the Lions have essentially no pass rush, which means they don’t have the ability to take advantage of Seattle’s most glaring weakness. For the first time all year Wilson will have time to search down the field, and eventually one of his receivers will come open. Detroit is going to have to open their offense up to try to attack the vulnerable back end of Seattle’s secondary, but that goes against everything that has made Stafford successful this year. Seattle moves too quickly and tackles too well for Detroit’s short passing game to produce, and this first round matchup could get ugly in a hurry.

New England Patriots

Who they want to play: Oakland Raiders

The Patriots are as good a team as ever, but the real secret to their success this year is that they haven’t actually played anyone good. The toughest opponent they faced all year was probably Seattle, who scored 31 points and beat them. The next toughest was a Roethlisberger-less Steelers team that kept things reasonably close despite starting Landry Jones at quarterback. New England hasn’t had to beat real competition all season, and fortunately they probably won’t have to for the next couple weeks either. Their first game will come against Houston, Oakland, or Miami, and of those three Oakland probably poses the least threat, in that they don’t have the sort of dangerous interior pass rush that could throw Tom Brady off his game. Not that the others are a serious risk, but Oakland is probably as toothless as playoff teams come.

Who they don’t want to play: Kansas City Chiefs

New England’s defense put up some impressive numbers this year, but when you go deeper you realize they were at best a middle of the pack unit. They benefited greatly from an easy schedule and an offense that never put them in a bad position, and they almost always came out on top in the turnover battle. That will prove an issue against the Chiefs, the team that finished with the best turnover margin in the league this year. This is the one team aggressive enough to force mistakes by Tom Brady, and they also happen to be one of the few that isn’t going to give it right back.

Kansas City Chiefs

Who they want to play: Houston Texans

Kansas City’s defense has lived on the turnover this year, and there is nothing more appetizing to an aggressive defense than an incompetent quarterback. And whether the Texans run out Brock Osweiler or Tom Savage, there are going to be plenty of interceptable balls floating in the air. Kansas City’s offense is built around capitalizing on the opportunities provided by their defense and making a few big plays down the field, while counting on their defense preventing big plays on the other side. More than any other team in this field Houston simply isn’t capable of making these big plays, and they would pose almost no threat to the Chiefs.

Who they don’t want to play: Pittsburgh Steelers

This one is a bit obvious, since the Steelers beat Kansas City 43-14 earlier this season. Pittsburgh isn’t necessarily a big play offense, but their brutal efficiency is enough to carve through the Chiefs defense. Kansas City will have the opportunity to make some big plays against this defense, but they won’t be able to generate anything on the ground. Any sustained success will have to come over the middle of the field to Travis Kelce, a recipe for disaster that Pittsburgh’s athletic linebackers will be able to exploit.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Who they want to play: Miami Dolphins

Pittsburgh’s offense has made a steady transition over the past few years from a big play, boom or bust style to an efficient, steady machine. They control games by feeding Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown and letting the two of them make ridiculous plays in space to pick up chunks of ten to fifteen yards. Miami is vulnerable against the run, and their cornerbacks don’t have a prayer of keeping up with Brown. Their only hope is getting after the quarterback, and with the way Pittsburgh’s line has been playing lately, that seems unlikely to happen.

Who they don’t want to play: New England Patriots

Pittsburgh actually held their own against the Patriots earlier this year despite being without Roethlisberger, but that doesn’t mean they should be confident going into this game. Their defense is still extremely vulnerable against the Patriots, and their only real hope of victory would come in a shootout. New England has shown a willingness to feed its running backs when the opponent is vulnerable, and right now Pittsburgh’s battered defensive line is struggling to stop the run. Even if the Steelers can disrupt Brady—a very big if—they will have trouble stuffing up LeGarrette Blount, and against New England they won’t be able to force the turnovers that have bailed them out in the red zone over and over this season.

Houston Texans

Who they want to play: Kansas City Chiefs

This one was hard. Houston is by far the worst team in the playoffs, with essentially no redeeming qualities they can exploit in a matchup. There is no defense in the field that they shouldn’t be terrified to face, but I guess if I had to pick one I’d go with the Chiefs. Kansas City has fielded a mediocre unit all year that has survived on producing takeaways, and Houston has survived this far despite producing a ridiculous number of turnovers. They’re going to give the ball to whoever they face, so they might as well give it to a team that struggles in the red zone, and someone they might be able to trick into surrendering a few big plays.

Who they don’t want to play: Pittsburgh Steelers

Houston’s defense is all about aggression, and there is no team better suited to exploit this aggression than Pittsburgh. A defensive back tries to jump a route, and Brown dances by them for a touchdown. Jadeveon Clowney bursts deep into the backfield, and Bell stops to let him run past before exploding through the hole he left underneath. Houston’s defense is vulnerable to Pittsburgh’s offense, and the Steelers have matured to the point where they should have nothing to worry about from Osweiler on the other side.

Oakland Raiders

Who they want to play: Houston Texans

Oakland’s hopes went out the window as soon as Derek Carr went down, but they still happened to get the one first round matchup they actually have a chance at winning. There are probably 30 quarterbacks in the league capable of torching Oakland’s miserable defense, and by sheer dumb luck the team they’re playing doesn’t have one of them. An offense led by Connor Cook is going to struggle to score against anyone, but Houston is the one team they have a chance of shutting down on the other side to give them hope in a low scoring contest.

Who they don’t want to play: Miami Dolphins

Oakland’s offense has fallen apart under pressure all year long. Part of that is due to Carr’s own flaws as a passer, but this isn’t an area where Cook will offer meaningful improvement. Oakland’s offensive line is very good, but the combination of Cameron Wake and Ndamukong Suh is enough to disrupt and unsettle a young quarterback. And on the other side, both Ryan Tannehill and Matt Moore are capable of shredding this Raiders defense through the air, and Jay Ajayi has the ability to carve them to pieces on the ground as well. Miami isn’t good enough to beat many playoff teams, but against the Raiders they’d have no trouble running away with things.

Miami Dolphins

Who they want to play: Houston Texans

Everyone wants to play the Texans. They’re starting Brock Osweiler after all, far and away the worst quarterback in the playoffs. They also don’t have much in the way of a running game, meaning Miami’s defense can pin back their ears and tear the quarterback to pieces. On the other side, their balanced offense has too many weapons for Houston’s defense to handle, and even if Matt Moore is at quarterback they have the clear advantage under center.

Who they don’t want to play: New England Patriots

New England showed just how devastating they are against the Dolphins when they blitzed past them a week ago to clinch the top seed in the AFC. Stout against the run, the Patriots will force the Dolphins to beat them through the air, a dangerous proposition with this inconsistent collection of passing and receiving talent. And despite Miami’s strong pass rush, they don’t have the depth on the outside to prevent receivers from running immediately open in their secondary, neutering their one hope of challenging Brady and stymying the Patriots offense.