On Tuesday I put out part one of my midseason review, and
today I’m back with the second half of the league. These are the teams we’ll be
keeping our eyes on as the season progresses, as they fight for the twelve
playoff spots and a shot at a Super Bowl championship.
Contenders
The name of this tier says enough. There aren’t any clearcut
elite teams in the league this year, but these are the closest we’re going to
get. Even if they aren’t dominant right now, they have the ability to pull
things together and turn it on when it matters.
New England Patriots (7-1)
The Patriots have the best record in the league, and they
are the closest thing to a truly elite team. Their only loss came while
starting their third string quarterback, and they’ve looked borderline
unstoppable since Tom Brady came back from his suspension. This offense is
deeper than it’s been in years, and Brady is playing as well as he has at any
point in his career. Right now, they are the clear Super Bowl favorites.
At the same time, there are some reasons to be concerned,
particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Simply put, they’re not that
good. They had trouble slowing down Landry Jones a couple weeks ago, and they
nearly let the Dolphins come from behind early in the season. And now that
they’ve traded their best player to Cleveland there is even more reason to be
concerned. As long as the offense is playing like it is, it probably doesn’t
matter. But this sort of imbalance is probably not sustainable.
Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3)
Injuries, suspensions, and shaky performances have hurt the
Steelers to start the season, but of all the teams they might have the highest
ceiling. They have the best wide receiver in the NFL, the best running back in
the NFL, and a top five quarterback, and when they all come together this
offense can reach insane heights.
The defense is a problem, but it’s better than it has looked
so far. Cam Heyward and Ryan Shazier will come back from the injuries that have
slowed them down early in the year, and young players like Artie Burns and Bud
Dupree could give them a boost. There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding this
team, but if things click, they’re going to be tough to stop.
Denver Broncos (6-2)
Trevor Siemian is a capable NFL quarterback. Trevor Siemian.
TREVOR SIEMIAN. I don’t understand, and I will never understand, but it’s
working, and they aren’t going to go away from it.
Of course the strength of Denver’s team is their defense,
and Von Miller is the clear front runner for Defensive Player of the Year. But
they do have talent on offense, with an elite pair of receivers and a
developing young running back in DeVontae Booker. And I’m done making
predictions about what Siemian will do next. He could wash out of the league
over the next three weeks, or he could go on to win MVP. Nothing makes sense
anymore.
Dallas Cowboys (6-1)
I picked the Cowboys to win the division when Tony Romo was
healthy. Then I picked them to finish third when he went down. They’ve already
reached the six wins I expected them to get, and they show no signs of slowing
down. The combination of Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott behind the best line
in the league has given the Cowboys the offensive firepower we all thought they
were capable of, and they’ve done this despite missing Dez Bryant for a large
chunk of the first half of the season.
The key question around the Cowboys is what they’re going to
do at quarterback once Romo is ready to play. Count me firmly in the Romo camp. Prescott has been fantastic, but no rookie
quarterback has even played in a Super Bowl, and Prescott has never played more
than 13 games in a season. An NFL season is long and brutal, and by the time
games 18 or 19 roll around, it’s reasonable to expect that he will have hit a
wall.
Seattle Seahawks (4-2-1)
Seattle has been far from impressive this year. Three times
they have failed to eclipse 12 points, and even some of their victories have
been tighter than they probably should have been. The defense is still playing
at an elite level, and they aren’t going to drop off anytime soon. And as long
as this defense is shutting down the opposition, they can compete with anyone.
But man, this offense might be a problem. Their offensive
line has been bad for years, but it’s never been this bad. And without Marshawn
Lynch to make tacklers look like children, the running game is not a force
capable of carrying the offense. The injuries to Russell Wilson certainly
haven’t helped, but that doesn’t change the fact that there are very few
players capable of breaking games open on this side of the ball. As wide open as this season is it might not matter in the end, but things are going to be more difficult for
Seattle than they’ve been in the past.
Green Bay Packers (4-3)
The Packers are lucky they’re playing in a year where every
title contender is flawed, because in any other year the struggles of their
offense would be a very concerning sign. As it is, they’re the one team you can
point to as having a flaw that is most easily corrected. Because as bad as the
offense—and Aaron Rodgers in particular—have played, this is still a unit we
have seen perform at an extremely high level.
And even if the Packers can’t get quite back to that level,
their defense is as good as it’s been in the past ten years. Injuries
have carved holes in their secondary, and their run defense was torn to pieces
by Ezekiel Elliott, but they are solid enough that even an above average
offense will make the Packers one of the best and most complete teams in the
league.
Atlanta Falcons (6-3)
There are a lot of one dimensional teams in the league, and
Atlanta might be the most extreme example. Through the first half of the season
they have fielded the best and most consistent offense in the league, while
also desperately struggling to stop even mediocre foes from moving the ball up
and down the field. This is the sort of weakness that would normally be fatal,
or at least enough for me to drop them out of the top tier.
The reason I’ve elevated the Falcons while punishing teams
like Detroit and Oakland is because I believe they have the capability to
improve. Currently they are starting four rookies on the defensive side of the
ball, and the unit will only get better as it has time to mesh. Vic Beasley is
finally turning it on, and in year two Dan Quinn is finally getting his scheme firmly put in place. It’s far from a guarantee, but the potential is there for this to
be at least a league average defense. And with Matt Ryan and Julio Jones
playing catch on the other side of the ball, that’s enough to make a run at a
championship.
Almost
These teams will be fighting for a postseason spot at the
season’s end, and they may even have enough to win a playoff game or two. But
unlike the teams above, these six are too flawed to fight their way through
three or four games against top competition. This season is as wide open as any
I can remember, so it’s not impossible to imagine one of these teams pulling it
off. But I’m going to stick with my gut and say that it is highly unlikely.
Minnesota Vikings (5-2)
A couple weeks ago I might have been tempted to put the
Vikings in the top group. But I don’t think I would have done it, and I don’t think
two straight losses have changed my opinion of the Vikings. They are a very
good team with an excellent defense, an abysmal offensive line, and almost no
hope of actually winning a Super Bowl.
Reading that description, they come off sounding an awful
lot like the Seahawks. So why do I have Seattle in the upper tier while
Minnesota is down here? It all comes down to the quarterback. Wilson isn’t
playing well, but if he gets healthy, he is the sort of player who can elevate
and transcend the talent around him. Even at his best earlier this year, Sam
Bradford was not that player. This team can win the division, and perhaps even
pull off a game or two in the playoffs. But their offense is fundamentally
limited, and that isn’t going to change this season.
Cincinnati Bengals (3-4-1)
The record isn’t promising for the Bengals, but their
playoff chances are actually fairly reasonable. After a first half of the
season that included games against Pittsburgh, Denver, Dallas, and New England,
things get significantly easier down the stretch, and it isn’t difficult to
imagine this veteran team pulling together a solid final record. The return of
Tyler Eiffert will only help matters, fixing the red zone woes that have
plagued them so far this year.
But the question remains, what will happen when they make
the playoffs? Do we have any reason to believe that this Bengals team is better
than the versions that have lost in the first round each of the past five
years? If anything they’ve taken a step backwards, losing the depth that made
them so dangerous on offense and the assistant coaches that always got the most
out of their talent. The Bengals are still in the playoff picture, but I can’t
imagine this will be the year they finally break through to the next level.
Oakland Raiders (6-2)
The Raiders are one of the best stories of the season so
far, and that’s prevented us from realizing just how ridiculously lucky this
team has gotten. They needed a two point conversion to beat the Saints,
overtime to knock off the Buccaneers, and a muffed field goal to win over the
Chargers. They’ve won six games, but they’ve only outscored their opponents by
12 points. This team is coasting right now, and their schedule gets more
difficult ahead, with two games remaining against the defending Super Bowl
champions and contests on the road against their other two division foes.
But this team is young, and anything short of a complete
collapse will still be cause for celebration. The MVP talk around Derek Carr is
a bit much, but he has silenced any doubts about whether he is a long term
answer at quarterback. Michael Crabtree is having a career renaissance, and
Amari Cooper is ready to join the elite category of receivers in the league.
And if you just ignore that all opposing quarterbacks are playing as well
against their defense as Carr is playing for their offense, there is a lot of
reason to be hopeful for the Raiders, both for this year and for years to come.
Kansas City Chiefs (5-2)
This isn’t the same Chiefs team we’ve gotten used to seeing
over the past few years. The offense has opened up in a way we really haven’t
seen before, bolstered by an infusion of talent on the outside. The line has
come together after some shaky years, and Alex Smith is playing at his
highest level since his time under Jim Harbaugh in San Francisco.
Unfortunately, these steps forward have been met by equal
steps back. The injuries to Jamaal Charles and Justin Houston have robbed them
of their most dynamic players on both sides of the ball, and the absences have
shown. After ranking 4th in adjusted sack rate last year they’re
down to 20th this year, and after finishing 1st in
rushing DVOA they are now 29th. This team is different, but that
doesn’t mean they’re better, and there will be more stumbles down the stretch
than we’ve seen so far.
Philadelphia Eagles (4-3)
Let’s get this out of the way: Carson Wentz has not been
good this year. He hasn’t been bad either, but he isn’t doing much to help
the team short of protecting the football. In the contest of rookie
quarterbacks he has been thoroughly outplayed by his division rival in Dallas,
and his performance has been trending down as the young season has progressed.
That doesn’t mean the Eagles are screwed by any means. They
still have the best defense in the division, as well as an offensive line that
has done a decent job of keeping their young quarterback upright. I’m worried
about how effectively they can move the ball either on the ground or through
the air, but this is hardly a death sentence in the wide open NFC.
Huh?
These are the teams that don’t fit into any other category.
At times they look great. At others they look like total disasters. They aren’t
in great shape right now, but they have the chance to be one of those teams
that puts together a run and sneaks into the playoffs at the end of the year.
San Diego Chargers (3-5)
The Chargers are one of the most frustrating teams in the
league, and I can only imagine how brutal it must be to be a fan of theirs.
This is a really, really good football team, and they should be even better.
Keenan Allen, their best player and a top five NFL receiver when healthy, is
out for the rest of the season, and they are still one of the most productive
offenses in the league.
And yet, they are 3-5. They are two and a half games back of
third place in their division. And even though their schedule is favorable,
it’s hard to imagine them making the playoffs. Ten games might not be enough to
snag a wild card spot in the AFC, and even that would require them to lose only
once over the remainder of the season. It is probably too high of a hill to
climb, which is unfortunate for anyone who wants to watch an exciting, fun, and
talented team.
Houston Texans (5-3)
Exciting, fun, and talented are probably the last three
words I would use to describe Houston. I desperately wanted to drop this team
into one of the lower tiers, but it’s hard to justify that, seeing as they’d be
in the playoffs if the season ended today. Houston has gotten lucky, and their
record overstates how good they are. But with half of their remaining games
coming against their AFC South “competition”, it shouldn’t be hard for them to
keep their winning ways going.
So if we’re going to watch the Texans, we should at least
try to enjoy them. There certainly isn’t any way to enjoy watching Brock
Osweiler, a quarterback so miserable he has somehow managed to neutralize
DeAndre Hopkins. The best defensive player in the league would normally be a
draw, but JJ Watt is out for the rest of the year. So I guess we’ll have to
satisfy ourselves with watching the emergence of Jadeveon Clowney. Once
considered a bust, he has quietly been one of the best defensive players in the
league this year. He is a quality pass rusher and a dominant force against the
run, and he’s only going to get better as he gets more time on the field.
Buffalo Bills (4-4)
Has any team been more bipolar than the Bills? They followed
early season defeats against the Ravens and the Jets with a series of blowout
victories against the Cardinals, Patriots, Rams, and 49ers, which they have
since wrapped up with back to back losses against the Dolphins and the
Patriots. At times they wield an unstoppable rushing attack, while at others
they struggle to do anything on offense while their defense is torched up and
down the field.
If I’m going to bet, my money is still on the worse version
of the Bills. They won four impressive games with an unsustainable level of
rushing productivity, and in less perfect situations their offense falls to
pieces. This team is helpless if they don’t get off to an early lead, and their
defense is a problem no matter what the score is. With games upcoming against
the Seahawks, Bengals, Raiders, and Steelers, things are going to turn bad in a
hurry, and the Bills may be lucky to win three games from this point out.
Detroit Lions (4-4)
Matthew Stafford is playing really well. Other than that,
there’s not much going for this team. They have a reasonably talented pair of
wide receivers, and a dangerous backfield threat in Theo Riddick. And they do
have some talented players on the defensive side, and I could see them pulling
things together if Ziggy Ansah and Darius Slay start to perform at the level
their capable of.
But even after sixteen games under Jim Bob Cooter, I’m still
not convinced that Stafford can sustain this level of play. His mechanics are
bound to regress, and defenses will adjust to the conservative underneath
passing attack. The offense is playing like a top five unit right now, and it simply
isn’t that good. They will come crashing back to earth, and their defense won’t
be in position to catch them.
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