The Rebirth of the Running Back

Over the past several years the most common refrain in football analysis is that the NFL has become a passing league. The statistics have been quoted to the end of the world, and I know I’ve certainly written about it more than anyone would care to read. It’s not a secret, and it’s not up for debate. The NFL is about throwing the football.

With this shift came another common topic of conversation. The running game was slowly fading from the NFL, and it seemed that the running back position was as well. The days of the feature back had reached their end, with more and more teams relying on a committee of low cost, interchangeable options in the backfield. No running back was drafted in the first round in 2013 or 2014, and after the failure of 2012 third overall pick Trent Richardson there were actually people questioning if we would ever see a running back go in the first round again.

This speculation was absurd from the beginning, and over the past two years we’ve seen things fall back into a more normal rhythm, with a running back selected in the top ten in each draft. But we are still far from where we used to be, and after a season that saw only seven running backs eclipse a thousand yards on the ground, it seemed a bit much to proclaim that the position was back.

And yet so far 2016 has seen a surprising trend in the league. The position that was presumed dead just a few short years ago has suddenly flourished, bolstered by a wave of fresh talent that has shown just how valuable a running back can be even in this new era.

The easiest way to see the impact of the young players is to just list their names. Rookie Ezekiel Elliott leads the league with 1005 rushing yards through nine games. Second year players Melvin Gordon, Jay Ajayi, Tevin Coleman, and David Johnson have exploded onto the scene. And while the 2014 draft class doesn’t quite touch these heights, the group of Devonta Freeman, Isaiah Crowell, and Jeremy Hill is nothing to turn your nose up at.

The names are impressive, and the numbers back them up. The 2015 draft class is producing the most total yards of any group of running backs. Second is the 2014 class, then the 2016 class, then 2013. It’s even more jarring when you see it on a chart.

This isn’t a particularly stunning result, considering the normal lifespan of running backs and the leaguewide preference for young players. But the degree of polarization is notable. Even productive veterans like LeSean McCoy and DeMarco Murray aren’t enough to lift their classes to the level of the youngsters.

At this point, it’s easy enough to dismiss many of the critics from the past few years as overly reactionary. Running backs had a couple bad years, and there were a couple seasons without true young talent. But these were more the product of bad draft classes than anything else. The top rushers out of the 2012 draft this year are Lamar Miller, Matt Asiata, and Alfred Morris. 2014 has produced some good options but no stars. And while Le’Veon Bell is the best runner in the league four years after being taken in the second round, it’s easy to understand how the league could have missed out on him, considering he didn’t really emerge until he shed 20 pounds from his college weight.

Compare that to what we’ve seen over the past couple years. Todd Gurley was a premier runner who would have been drafted even higher without injury concerns. Melvin Gordon is an elite speed threat who shattered records in college. And Elliott is quite possibly the most complete running back to come out of college in the past ten years, excelling as a rusher, receiver, and pass blocker.

This is an easy enough explanation, but it doesn’t capture the whole picture. The backs that have entered the league over the past couple seasons are more talented than in the years before, but they are also talented in different ways. This can best be seen in the chart below, which shows each class’s production of receiving yards as a share of their total yards.

 

There is a big spike in 2006 that is almost entirely due to Darren Sproles. Outside of that, the trend is very clear. Not only are younger running backs producing more yards, they are finding an increasing share of these yards as receivers.

As I said before, as I said above, and as I will say again, the NFL is a passing league. Throwing the football is more efficient than trying to move it on the ground, and no amount of running back talent is going to change that. But over the past few years we’ve seen the talent adjusting to fit into the modern schemes.

The ability to catch a football is a prerequisite for modern NFL running backs. Young backs like David Johnson and CJ Prosise are actually converted receivers, and they arrived in the NFL with instinctive hands and route running ability. In the past running backs were consigned to simple routes out of the backfield, swings and curls and occasionally wheels down the sideline. But with players trained to harness their natural quickness as route runners, running backs are capable of attacking defenses in previously unseen ways.

There is no better example of this than Le’Veon Bell. Standing 6-1 and weighing 220 pounds, in a lot of ways Bell looks like a big, stocky wide receiver in the mold of Anquan Boldin or Michael Crabtree. And the similarity is even more jarring when he runs routes. His shiftiness is lethal, and he understands how to explode at just the right moment to catch defenders off balance. He attacks the ball at its highest point, and he makes catches outside the frame of his body. Bell does everything you could ask from a wide receiver, and if he dedicated himself to the position full time he could be a Pro Bowl caliber player.

A player like Bell is the ultimate matchup nightmare for a defense. He is lethal out of the backfield, and he might be even more dangerous when the Steelers line him up split wide or in the slot. The ability to line up their running back in multiple positions gives the Steelers the ability to dictate matchups against the defense and call plays to take advantage of the opposing personnel

Most of the time against a spread formation a defense is able to adjust simply enough by bringing extra defensive backs onto the field. But if one of the receivers can also double as a running back, this isn’t as appealing an option. If a defense puts six defensive backs on the field, Bell can line up in the backfield and slam the ball into an undersized front. If the defense leaves an extra linebacker on the field, they have no chance of keeping up with Bell when he’s split out wide.

The advantages this sort of versatility brings to an offense are almost too many to count. They can go up tempo without the need to make substitutions, switching between a power scheme and a spread attack on a play by play basis. They can throw an extra running back on the field and attack defenses from multiple angles. And they can align their personnel in a way that is guaranteed to lead to matchup problems.

There really isn’t a way for a defense to scheme against a player like Bell. The only real way to stop him is to have someone just as versatile to line up across from him. And this is why we’re seeing a similar trend towards versatile, flexible options on the defensive side. Defenders like Deone Buchanon and Tyrann Mathieu are the rare sort of athletes who can stack up against the run and track elite route runners down the field, and they will only become more valuable as these multidimensional running backs work their way through the league.

There are a lot of talented young running backs in the league, and we will only see more come through next year. Leonard Fournette is one of the best pure runners to enter the league in the past decade, and he could very easily be a third straight top ten selection. But the more interesting prospects may actually be Dalvin Cook and Christian McCaffrey, who blend excellent running ability with elite skills as receivers.

The future of the NFL is in passing the football, but there is still a place for running backs in this new league. Down the road we will start to see the positional distinctions blur across the board. Running backs and wide receivers will share roles, just as linebackers and safeties and cornerbacks will be harder to differentiate. There will always be a role for the players who are truly dominant in one aspect of the game. But going forward, they'll have trouble keeping up with the players who spread themselves across every aspect of the game.