What We Learned From Thanksgiving

Thanksgiving weekend is upon us, and that means a lot of different things to a lot of different people. For some it’s a chance to reconnect with family and other loved ones. For others it’s the beginning of the Christmas shopping season. And for some it’s an excuse to eat a giant bird.

For me, this weekend is all about three things. A shortened work week, an excuse to order and eat an absurd amount of pizza, and a bunch more football on a random Thursday. And while the first two were definitely worth it (although I do have to ask, why the hell was Papa Johns closed on Thursday? I had to order from Dominos instead!), the football this year was what really made the day.

The schedules for Thanksgiving games aren’t always the most rewarding, but this year we got lucky. All six teams that played are in contention for the playoffs this year, and five of them sit firmly on the bubble. Every game was entertaining in its own way, with one coming down to the very last play. And they showed us a great deal about the teams involved, moving us one step closer to solving the mess that is the current playoff standings.

For the sake of simplicity I’m going to focus on the five teams fighting for their playoff lives. The Cowboys have all but locked up a spot in the postseason, and I’m sure I’ll have plenty more to say on them going forward (possibly even next week). For today, I’ll focus on the Lions, Vikings, Redskins, Steelers, and Colts, and what we learned by watching them play on Thursday.

Detroit Lions (7-4)

Of all the teams that played on Thanksgiving, none gained more from the day than the Lions. Not only did they win, they handed a loss to the team that will be the biggest threat to them over the rest of the season. Now with a game lead over the Vikings and with the tiebreaker in hand, the road forward is very clear for the Lions. Four wins will get them a division title. Three will most likely do the same. Even going 2-3 down the stretch will probably be enough to get them into the playoffs.

It’s a good thing that the road is easy, because this still isn’t a particularly good team. They shouldn’t have won on Thursday, just as they shouldn’t have won most of the games they’ve pulled off this year. Somehow the Lions are 7-4 despite trailing in the fourth quarter of every game they’ve played, a track record of good fortune that simply is not sustainable.

To be fair, the Lions are doing some things very well. First among them is the performance of Matthew Stafford, having a career year that should have him in consideration for league MVP. Without Calvin Johnson he is playing better than he has at any point in the past. He is distributing the ball to a diverse and deep corps of weapons, and he is making plays with his legs to make the most out of every opportunity. His movement behind the line is at an elite level, and he has finally harnessed his ability to make spectacular throws off platform while casting aside the mistakes that plagued his aggressive style in the past.

But outside of Stafford, there isn’t a whole lot to be impressed with on this team. Their offensive line is just okay, their receivers are slightly above average, and their defense is a catastrophe waiting to happen. The offense they faced on Thursday is mostly toothless, but it never felt like the Lions really presented them with any difficulties. The Lions didn’t stop the Vikings as much as they stood there and watched Minnesota spin their wheels, and against competent offenses this team is in trouble.

There is a reason why Detroit hasn’t been able to run away with any games so far this year. They don’t have it in them to make the big explosive play, the sort that can turn a small advantage into a blowout. The short passing game has opened things up for Stafford, but they need to be open to occasional shots down the field. And their pass rush is totally nonexistent, making life easy for offenses and leaving them with few opportunities to steal a possession.

Another close win leaves the Lions in good position to make the playoffs, but it doesn’t mitigate my skepticism about their chances once they make it there. The Lions should feel good about themselves right now. But they have a lot more work to do if they don’t want to have to face harsh reality soon.

Minnesota Vikings (6-5)

Where do I begin with this? Thursday’s game was the ultimate encapsulation of what the Vikings are as a football team. They do a lot of things really, really well, and they do a lot of things really, really poorly. And depending on how the pieces fall they have the ability to win against just about any opponent, to lose against just about any opponent, or to scrap to a standstill against just about any opponent.

Minnesota’s defense is one of the best in football. There’s been some handwringing among Vikings fans about the performance of this unit in recent weeks, but this was all a bit over the top. On their worst day they gave up 26 points, and against a pretty good Lions offense they only allowed 16. Maybe they deserve some criticism for not standing tall when the game was on the line, but most of the blame should go to the offense for putting them in a position where shutting a team down for 55 minutes wasn’t enough.

The offense has been a problem all year, and it has now reached full catastrophe. But truth be told, it really isn’t anyone’s fault. The run of injuries they’ve suffered is almost impossible, and it would leave any NFL offense nonfunctional. This is a team missing their top quarterback, top running back, and top three offensive tackles for the season. Potentially their best guard hasn’t played due to a nonfootball injury. Coming into this game they were missing their top wide receiver, and as the game went along they lost their starting center and their fourth tackle.

An NFL roster has 53 players. Removing the kicker, punter, and long snapper, most teams split this evenly with 25 on defense and 25 on offense. And of the 25 players on offense, Minnesota played much of this game without nine of them. That’s more than a third of their offensive depth chart just gone, with a heavy skew towards the top. At a certain point there just aren’t enough NFL caliber players to fill these gaps.

What happens when a team loses this kind of talent is exactly what we saw on Thursday. The offensive line was their biggest weakness coming into the season, and it is reduced to cinders by now. Even after running the ball 15 times for 80 yards the Vikings are averaging only 2.84 yards per carry on the season, the second lowest average since the merger.

And somehow their line is even worse protecting the passer than it is blocking for the run. The Vikings don’t trust their protection to hold up, and they made no effort to even try to throw the ball down the field. Sam Bradford completed 31 of his 39 attempts, but these went for only 224 yards, most of which came after the catch.

Right now the Vikings are utterly hopeless on the offensive side of the ball. They don’t have the line to open up opportunities. They don’t have the playmakers to break things open with the ball in their hands. And despite giving up a first round pick for him, Sam Bradford remains a quarterback who is not capable of elevating the talent around him.

The Vikings face an uphill battle for both the division and a wild card spot. And their schedule isn’t favorable, with games left against Dallas, Indianapolis, and Green Bay. Even winning three of their remaining five would leave them in a delicate position, and with the way they’re performing right now that’s an optimistic scenario.

People are starting to look back at the decision to trade for Bradford and question whether it was the right decision. I was against it from the beginning, largely for the reasons it has fallen to pieces now. Some are pointing to the injuries they’ve suffered as mitigating factors, and while I agree that this certainly wasn’t something that could have been expected, it was a possibility that had to be acknowledged from the beginning.

The Vikings traded away a large chunk of their future because they believed they had a chance to compete this season, but that chance was always vulnerable to wild swings of fortune. Injuries happen, bad bounces happen, and there are a hundred ways that a season can fall to pieces. This is why it is almost always a mistake to go all in on a single season. The Vikings are learning the hard way just how much can go wrong, and just how grim things can become for a team that looked so promising just a few months ago.

Washington Redskins (7-4-1)

Washington lost on Thursday, but their performance has to leave them hopeful for the remainder of the season. They went up against a very good team on the road, and while they never really had a chance to win, they at least showed signs that they can hang in there against quality competition.

Two straight excellent performances in nationally televised games have revitalized the Kirk Cousins train, but really we should be talking about the talent that’s surrounding him. Washington has put together one of the deepest and most varied offenses in the league, and their quarterback is reaping all the benefits. They have a stellar offensive line, a deadly deep threat, a veteran possession receiver, an explosive young slot receiver, a powerful between the tackles runner, and a red zone monster of a tight end. There isn’t a clear hole on this offense, and that gives them the ability to compete with any team in the league.

Washington’s schedule going forward isn’t a cakewalk, but it’s not something that should scare them either. Every game should be winnable, and even if they drop a couple they’re in good position to pull out a wild card spot.

Washington’s offense is multifaceted enough to score on anyone, and if they have a problem going forward it will be with their defense. Dallas has an excellent offense that can’t really be shut down (like a higher upside version of Washington’s offense), but it’s not a good sign that they pretty much had their way with the Redskins defense. They ran the ball at will, and Dez Bryant routinely burned whoever was put across from him.

This defense isn’t necessarily bad, and they don’t face any major challenges the rest of the way. The toughest remaining offense they face is probably the Giants, and they should be able to at least keep their opposition somewhat in check. Despite this most recent loss, this team is still in good shape to make a run to the playoffs for a second consecutive season.

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5)

Pittsburgh is better than their record suggests. They’ve dropped a couple games they shouldn’t have, and they’re working out the same kinks that seem to rise on their team every year. At a certain point we just have to accept that this is what the Steelers are. They can beat anyone on any given week, and they can lose to anyone on any given week.

Thursday was a glimpse of what they can be when things are firing across the board. They coasted to a 28-7 victory on the road against Indianapolis, and coasted really is the most accurate term. They scored touchdowns on each of their first three drives, and after that they were content to let the game tick away.

They played oddly conservative, making no effort to score at the end of the half and punting in Indianapolis territory on fourth and two early in the third quarter. Ben Roethlisberger only threw 20 passes, and their defense didn’t do much to challenge the inexperienced quarterback across from them. For a few moments in the second half it looked like this might actually become a game, before a big fourth down stand ended Indianapolis’s momentum.

Looking at the box score it almost seems like Pittsburgh got stuck in the mud again, but watching the game it seemed more like a conscious effort to keep things from getting out of control. They backed off and let Scott Tolzien operate underneath, knowing they weren’t in any trouble unless they gave up a few big plays. And on offense they were efficient, letting Le’Veon Bell carry the ball 23 times at a 5.2 yards per carry pace.

The switch was available for them to turn on whenever they needed it. They brought pressure on Tolzien in crucial situations, forcing mistakes. They only targeted Antonio Brown six times, and three of them went for touchdowns. If the Colts had closed it to one score, they were ready to run away. But it didn’t happen, so they were content to win with minimum effort.

Do they deserve criticism for not going for the kill? Maybe. But going forward, their performance on Thursday is a positive sign for where they’re headed. This team still has holes that don’t have obvious fixes. They lack a secondary playmaker on the outside, their pass rush is inconsistent, and their defensive backfield is starting a pair of rookies.

But their early season woes have disappeared for now, and they look like the class of the AFC North. This team came as close as anyone in recent weeks to knocking off the Cowboys, and they hung in against the Patriots with Landry Jones at quarterback. They should be the favorites to win their division, and they have the potential to do real damage in the playoffs.

Indianapolis Colts (5-6)

Of the teams that played on Thursday, no team is harder to draw conclusions about than the Colts, for obvious reasons. More than any other team in the league they are dependent on an individual player, and that player didn’t see the field on Thanksgiving. With Andrew Luck failing to pass the league’s concussion protocol, the Colts were forced to turn to Scott Tolzien under center, and no one was surprised when the team failed to pull off the victory against the Steelers.

The absence of Luck colors everything that happened with Indianapolis on Thursday, but the game still taught us some things about this team, and this wasn’t necessarily for the best. During the game the commentators were fairly positive about the performance of the Colts, giving them credit for not rolling over and keeping things within a couple scores for most of the game. They had two opportunities barely slip through their fingers at the goalline, and with slightly different luck things could have looked different.

Except as I mentioned above, this isn’t really the case. The Steelers pulled pretty hard off the gas during the second half, and if things had gotten dicey their offense had the ability to turn back on at will. Pittsburgh moved the ball however they wanted against the Colts defense, and Indianapolis's offense looked toothless outside an occasional pass down the field.

The Colts without Andrew Luck looked an awful lot like the Colts with Andrew Luck. They can’t defend, they can’t run the ball, and their only hope is when their quarterback can make plays. To Tolzien’s credit he made more plays than people expected, until late in the game when he got desperate and threw a pair of interceptions. There were open receivers for Indianapolis, and they made plays when they were available.

And it still wasn’t enough. It hasn’t been enough all year, and it likely won’t be enough going forward. Luck will be back, but that won’t get rid of the genuine holes that dot the rest of their roster. Indianapolis had a chance Thursday to show that they were more than just their quarterback, and they only confirmed what we’ve suspected all along.

This isn’t to say that Indianapolis is dead in the water. They are actually still in decent shape, largely because the current division leader happens to be one of the worst teams in the NFL. Houston and Indianapolis face off in two weeks, and the winner of that game will likely claim the division title (Tennessee could still steal it, but a pair of losses to the Colts leave them in bad shape if it comes to a tiebreaker.) Of course, winning the division only means so much, and after their performance on Thursday I think any sort of playoff run should be viewed as a pipe dream.