What We Learned From Thanksgiving

Thanksgiving weekend is upon us, and that means a lot of different things to a lot of different people. For some it’s a chance to reconnect with family and other loved ones. For others it’s the beginning of the Christmas shopping season. And for some it’s an excuse to eat a giant bird.

For me, this weekend is all about three things. A shortened work week, an excuse to order and eat an absurd amount of pizza, and a bunch more football on a random Thursday. And while the first two were definitely worth it (although I do have to ask, why the hell was Papa Johns closed on Thursday? I had to order from Dominos instead!), the football this year was what really made the day.

The schedules for Thanksgiving games aren’t always the most rewarding, but this year we got lucky. All six teams that played are in contention for the playoffs this year, and five of them sit firmly on the bubble. Every game was entertaining in its own way, with one coming down to the very last play. And they showed us a great deal about the teams involved, moving us one step closer to solving the mess that is the current playoff standings.

For the sake of simplicity I’m going to focus on the five teams fighting for their playoff lives. The Cowboys have all but locked up a spot in the postseason, and I’m sure I’ll have plenty more to say on them going forward (possibly even next week). For today, I’ll focus on the Lions, Vikings, Redskins, Steelers, and Colts, and what we learned by watching them play on Thursday.

Detroit Lions (7-4)

Of all the teams that played on Thanksgiving, none gained more from the day than the Lions. Not only did they win, they handed a loss to the team that will be the biggest threat to them over the rest of the season. Now with a game lead over the Vikings and with the tiebreaker in hand, the road forward is very clear for the Lions. Four wins will get them a division title. Three will most likely do the same. Even going 2-3 down the stretch will probably be enough to get them into the playoffs.

It’s a good thing that the road is easy, because this still isn’t a particularly good team. They shouldn’t have won on Thursday, just as they shouldn’t have won most of the games they’ve pulled off this year. Somehow the Lions are 7-4 despite trailing in the fourth quarter of every game they’ve played, a track record of good fortune that simply is not sustainable.

To be fair, the Lions are doing some things very well. First among them is the performance of Matthew Stafford, having a career year that should have him in consideration for league MVP. Without Calvin Johnson he is playing better than he has at any point in the past. He is distributing the ball to a diverse and deep corps of weapons, and he is making plays with his legs to make the most out of every opportunity. His movement behind the line is at an elite level, and he has finally harnessed his ability to make spectacular throws off platform while casting aside the mistakes that plagued his aggressive style in the past.

But outside of Stafford, there isn’t a whole lot to be impressed with on this team. Their offensive line is just okay, their receivers are slightly above average, and their defense is a catastrophe waiting to happen. The offense they faced on Thursday is mostly toothless, but it never felt like the Lions really presented them with any difficulties. The Lions didn’t stop the Vikings as much as they stood there and watched Minnesota spin their wheels, and against competent offenses this team is in trouble.

There is a reason why Detroit hasn’t been able to run away with any games so far this year. They don’t have it in them to make the big explosive play, the sort that can turn a small advantage into a blowout. The short passing game has opened things up for Stafford, but they need to be open to occasional shots down the field. And their pass rush is totally nonexistent, making life easy for offenses and leaving them with few opportunities to steal a possession.

Another close win leaves the Lions in good position to make the playoffs, but it doesn’t mitigate my skepticism about their chances once they make it there. The Lions should feel good about themselves right now. But they have a lot more work to do if they don’t want to have to face harsh reality soon.

Minnesota Vikings (6-5)

Where do I begin with this? Thursday’s game was the ultimate encapsulation of what the Vikings are as a football team. They do a lot of things really, really well, and they do a lot of things really, really poorly. And depending on how the pieces fall they have the ability to win against just about any opponent, to lose against just about any opponent, or to scrap to a standstill against just about any opponent.

Minnesota’s defense is one of the best in football. There’s been some handwringing among Vikings fans about the performance of this unit in recent weeks, but this was all a bit over the top. On their worst day they gave up 26 points, and against a pretty good Lions offense they only allowed 16. Maybe they deserve some criticism for not standing tall when the game was on the line, but most of the blame should go to the offense for putting them in a position where shutting a team down for 55 minutes wasn’t enough.

The offense has been a problem all year, and it has now reached full catastrophe. But truth be told, it really isn’t anyone’s fault. The run of injuries they’ve suffered is almost impossible, and it would leave any NFL offense nonfunctional. This is a team missing their top quarterback, top running back, and top three offensive tackles for the season. Potentially their best guard hasn’t played due to a nonfootball injury. Coming into this game they were missing their top wide receiver, and as the game went along they lost their starting center and their fourth tackle.

An NFL roster has 53 players. Removing the kicker, punter, and long snapper, most teams split this evenly with 25 on defense and 25 on offense. And of the 25 players on offense, Minnesota played much of this game without nine of them. That’s more than a third of their offensive depth chart just gone, with a heavy skew towards the top. At a certain point there just aren’t enough NFL caliber players to fill these gaps.

What happens when a team loses this kind of talent is exactly what we saw on Thursday. The offensive line was their biggest weakness coming into the season, and it is reduced to cinders by now. Even after running the ball 15 times for 80 yards the Vikings are averaging only 2.84 yards per carry on the season, the second lowest average since the merger.

And somehow their line is even worse protecting the passer than it is blocking for the run. The Vikings don’t trust their protection to hold up, and they made no effort to even try to throw the ball down the field. Sam Bradford completed 31 of his 39 attempts, but these went for only 224 yards, most of which came after the catch.

Right now the Vikings are utterly hopeless on the offensive side of the ball. They don’t have the line to open up opportunities. They don’t have the playmakers to break things open with the ball in their hands. And despite giving up a first round pick for him, Sam Bradford remains a quarterback who is not capable of elevating the talent around him.

The Vikings face an uphill battle for both the division and a wild card spot. And their schedule isn’t favorable, with games left against Dallas, Indianapolis, and Green Bay. Even winning three of their remaining five would leave them in a delicate position, and with the way they’re performing right now that’s an optimistic scenario.

People are starting to look back at the decision to trade for Bradford and question whether it was the right decision. I was against it from the beginning, largely for the reasons it has fallen to pieces now. Some are pointing to the injuries they’ve suffered as mitigating factors, and while I agree that this certainly wasn’t something that could have been expected, it was a possibility that had to be acknowledged from the beginning.

The Vikings traded away a large chunk of their future because they believed they had a chance to compete this season, but that chance was always vulnerable to wild swings of fortune. Injuries happen, bad bounces happen, and there are a hundred ways that a season can fall to pieces. This is why it is almost always a mistake to go all in on a single season. The Vikings are learning the hard way just how much can go wrong, and just how grim things can become for a team that looked so promising just a few months ago.

Washington Redskins (7-4-1)

Washington lost on Thursday, but their performance has to leave them hopeful for the remainder of the season. They went up against a very good team on the road, and while they never really had a chance to win, they at least showed signs that they can hang in there against quality competition.

Two straight excellent performances in nationally televised games have revitalized the Kirk Cousins train, but really we should be talking about the talent that’s surrounding him. Washington has put together one of the deepest and most varied offenses in the league, and their quarterback is reaping all the benefits. They have a stellar offensive line, a deadly deep threat, a veteran possession receiver, an explosive young slot receiver, a powerful between the tackles runner, and a red zone monster of a tight end. There isn’t a clear hole on this offense, and that gives them the ability to compete with any team in the league.

Washington’s schedule going forward isn’t a cakewalk, but it’s not something that should scare them either. Every game should be winnable, and even if they drop a couple they’re in good position to pull out a wild card spot.

Washington’s offense is multifaceted enough to score on anyone, and if they have a problem going forward it will be with their defense. Dallas has an excellent offense that can’t really be shut down (like a higher upside version of Washington’s offense), but it’s not a good sign that they pretty much had their way with the Redskins defense. They ran the ball at will, and Dez Bryant routinely burned whoever was put across from him.

This defense isn’t necessarily bad, and they don’t face any major challenges the rest of the way. The toughest remaining offense they face is probably the Giants, and they should be able to at least keep their opposition somewhat in check. Despite this most recent loss, this team is still in good shape to make a run to the playoffs for a second consecutive season.

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5)

Pittsburgh is better than their record suggests. They’ve dropped a couple games they shouldn’t have, and they’re working out the same kinks that seem to rise on their team every year. At a certain point we just have to accept that this is what the Steelers are. They can beat anyone on any given week, and they can lose to anyone on any given week.

Thursday was a glimpse of what they can be when things are firing across the board. They coasted to a 28-7 victory on the road against Indianapolis, and coasted really is the most accurate term. They scored touchdowns on each of their first three drives, and after that they were content to let the game tick away.

They played oddly conservative, making no effort to score at the end of the half and punting in Indianapolis territory on fourth and two early in the third quarter. Ben Roethlisberger only threw 20 passes, and their defense didn’t do much to challenge the inexperienced quarterback across from them. For a few moments in the second half it looked like this might actually become a game, before a big fourth down stand ended Indianapolis’s momentum.

Looking at the box score it almost seems like Pittsburgh got stuck in the mud again, but watching the game it seemed more like a conscious effort to keep things from getting out of control. They backed off and let Scott Tolzien operate underneath, knowing they weren’t in any trouble unless they gave up a few big plays. And on offense they were efficient, letting Le’Veon Bell carry the ball 23 times at a 5.2 yards per carry pace.

The switch was available for them to turn on whenever they needed it. They brought pressure on Tolzien in crucial situations, forcing mistakes. They only targeted Antonio Brown six times, and three of them went for touchdowns. If the Colts had closed it to one score, they were ready to run away. But it didn’t happen, so they were content to win with minimum effort.

Do they deserve criticism for not going for the kill? Maybe. But going forward, their performance on Thursday is a positive sign for where they’re headed. This team still has holes that don’t have obvious fixes. They lack a secondary playmaker on the outside, their pass rush is inconsistent, and their defensive backfield is starting a pair of rookies.

But their early season woes have disappeared for now, and they look like the class of the AFC North. This team came as close as anyone in recent weeks to knocking off the Cowboys, and they hung in against the Patriots with Landry Jones at quarterback. They should be the favorites to win their division, and they have the potential to do real damage in the playoffs.

Indianapolis Colts (5-6)

Of the teams that played on Thursday, no team is harder to draw conclusions about than the Colts, for obvious reasons. More than any other team in the league they are dependent on an individual player, and that player didn’t see the field on Thanksgiving. With Andrew Luck failing to pass the league’s concussion protocol, the Colts were forced to turn to Scott Tolzien under center, and no one was surprised when the team failed to pull off the victory against the Steelers.

The absence of Luck colors everything that happened with Indianapolis on Thursday, but the game still taught us some things about this team, and this wasn’t necessarily for the best. During the game the commentators were fairly positive about the performance of the Colts, giving them credit for not rolling over and keeping things within a couple scores for most of the game. They had two opportunities barely slip through their fingers at the goalline, and with slightly different luck things could have looked different.

Except as I mentioned above, this isn’t really the case. The Steelers pulled pretty hard off the gas during the second half, and if things had gotten dicey their offense had the ability to turn back on at will. Pittsburgh moved the ball however they wanted against the Colts defense, and Indianapolis's offense looked toothless outside an occasional pass down the field.

The Colts without Andrew Luck looked an awful lot like the Colts with Andrew Luck. They can’t defend, they can’t run the ball, and their only hope is when their quarterback can make plays. To Tolzien’s credit he made more plays than people expected, until late in the game when he got desperate and threw a pair of interceptions. There were open receivers for Indianapolis, and they made plays when they were available.

And it still wasn’t enough. It hasn’t been enough all year, and it likely won’t be enough going forward. Luck will be back, but that won’t get rid of the genuine holes that dot the rest of their roster. Indianapolis had a chance Thursday to show that they were more than just their quarterback, and they only confirmed what we’ve suspected all along.

This isn’t to say that Indianapolis is dead in the water. They are actually still in decent shape, largely because the current division leader happens to be one of the worst teams in the NFL. Houston and Indianapolis face off in two weeks, and the winner of that game will likely claim the division title (Tennessee could still steal it, but a pair of losses to the Colts leave them in bad shape if it comes to a tiebreaker.) Of course, winning the division only means so much, and after their performance on Thursday I think any sort of playoff run should be viewed as a pipe dream.

The Head of the Line

Which team is the best in the NFL right now?

That’s a tricky question in almost every season, but this year it is almost impossible to answer. It seems like with every week that passes we have a new answer to give, and ten games into the season there are still probably a half dozen teams that have a worthy claim to that title.

Early favorites like Denver, Philadelphia, and Minnesota have plummeted after hot starts. Seattle’s come on strong, but this is the same team that scored only three points against the Rams. New England is always in the conversation no matter how many of their best defensive players they trade away. If you asked around, the most common answer would probably be the Cowboys, but how confident can we be in a team starting a rookie quarterback and a defense that most people couldn’t name even a single starter from?

The NFL is always unpredictable, but this year feels as wide open as any in recent memory. Teams like Pittsburgh and New Orleans would be outside the playoffs if the season ended today, yet both have reason to believe they could get hot and steal a championship. Everyone is looking up right now and seeing nothing stable above them.

At least, that’s the way it feels. The standings aren’t any more imbalanced than we’re used to seeing, but it does seem like the best teams have at least one glaring flaw. Seattle’s offensive line, Oakland’s defense, Denver’s Trevor Siemian. From the beginning of the season we’ve heard that there are no complete teams, just a bunch of lopsided heavyweights that turn away whenever one side of the ball is on the field.

Everyone seems to be in agreement on this point, but that’s not good enough for me. Because I’m a nerd, I’m not convinced until I see some numbers to back these things up. I want proof, and to get that proof I’ll turn to my old friend DVOA.

For those of you who haven’t encountered this stat here or elsewhere, a quick primer. DVOA is a metric calculated by Football Outsiders using situational success on a play by play basis, which is then adjusted for level of competition. It is much more granular than most measures of offensive and defensive success, which are usually expressed in terms of points or yards allowed. If you’re really curious, you can read more here. If not, just skim down to the numbers below.

For simplicity’s sake, I focused only on the disparity between a team’s offense and their defense. This doesn’t capture when one piece of the unit is particularly wretched (the best example being Seattle and their so called “offensive line”), but it is a pretty good summary for teams like Atlanta, Denver, and Oakland.

DVOA is expressed as the percentage deviation from average. So if a team has an offensive DVOA of 10%, that means they are 10% better than a league average offense. Defensive values are inverted, so a defensive DVOA of 10% actually means that a team is 10% worse than average.

Using these numbers, it’s fairly straightforward to calculate a statistical measure of how large the disparity is between offenses and defenses across the league. Since defensive values are inverted, we take the sum of the two values to get the total difference between them (therefore an offensive DVOA of 15% and a defensive DVOA of 20% are 35% separated). Since for this analysis we don’t care which of the sides is the better of the two, we square these values to make them all positive, then average them and take the square root of this average to get the mean disparity between offense and defense.

That sounds like a lot, and if you don’t care about the math, then just interpret these numbers as follows: a bigger number means the average team is more polarized between their offense and their defense.

I performed this calculation for every year going back to 2004. For comparison’s sake, I used DVOA through Week 11 of each of these previous seasons. I also performed another similar but simpler calculation using each team’s DVOA rankings rather than the raw percentages. Take a look at the numbers below.

	Average DVOA Disparity	Average Ranking Disparity
2004	26%	15.3
2005	18%	11.4
2006	21%	13.8
2007	18%	11.2
2008	19%	12.1
2009	16%	9.0
2010	22%	11.7
2011	20%	13.3
2012	19%	12.2
2013	19%	14.2
2014	16%	13.3
2015	15%	12.3
2016	20%	16.1

At first glance, the numbers don’t really jump off the page. The DVOA disparity is high this year compared to the last couple, but it isn’t out of line with many of the seasons that came before. It’s the same as 2011, and less than 2010.

(Incidentally, both those years saw a team advance from the Wild Card round to a Super Bowl victory. Read into that whatever you want.)

We see a slightly different picture when we look at the second column. In terms of overall percentage spread this year doesn’t blow past the ones that came before, but when you look at the evenly spaced rankings, you see a different story. The average team is sixteen spots separated between its offense and its defense, by far the highest of any year since DVOA became available on a weekly basis.

This disparity is definitely interesting. The first explanation that came to mind was a decrease in variance, possibly due to a lack of extremely good or extremely bad offenses or defenses. And looking closer, the numbers back this up. The highest rated offense in the league is Dallas with a DVOA of 25.8%. The top defense is Philadelphia with a DVOA of -21.6%. Compared to the previous twelve seasons those would be the third lowest rated top offense and lowest rated top defense through the first 11 weeks.

The results can be seen some on the other end as well, though it isn’t as extreme. Detroit’s 19.4% defensive rating is one of the worst values in recent history, but Houston’s league last -21.7% offense is middle of the pack among the worst offenses of the past 13 years.

This is just one of the ways that this year looks distinctly different at the very top of the league.  There is only one team (Seattle) ranked in the top ten in both offense and in defense through the first 11 weeks, the first time that has happened in this sample. On the other hand, there are 10 teams ranked in the top ten in either offense or defense and ranked in the bottom ten on the other side of the ball, tied with 2004 for the most.

The trend is hard to miss. There are actually twelve teams in the league with a difference between their offensive and defensive DVOA of less than ten percentage points, but this collection of teams is not the finest in the NFL. Of them, only Seattle and Kansas City have a winning record. The rest are either mediocre (Tampa Bay, San Diego), disappointing (Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Carolina, Cincinnati), or downright terrible (Chicago, San Francisco, the Jets, Cleveland).

Balance is not a key to success in the NFL. The team with the widest gap is Baltimore, whose 30^th ranked offense has survived thanks to the 4^th ranked defense. The next largest gap goes to the team with the best record in the league. The top ranked offense of the Cowboys has elevated a slightly below average defense to a 9-1 record.

If the playoffs started today, the twelve teams represented would be New England, Baltimore, Houston, Oakland, Kansas City, Denver, Dallas, Detroit, Atlanta, Seattle, the Giants, and Washington. I already listed Seattle and Kansas City among the balanced teams, but of the other ten, only Detroit and the Giants have a separation of less than 20 percentage points.

There are balanced teams in the league this year, but these aren’t the teams that are finding success. The best teams are the ones that can find a way to dominate in one phase of the ball, a model that proved particularly successful for last year’s Super Bowl champions.

The numbers are there in front of us, and they are confirming what we’ve suspected all along. There is no team in the NFL that dominates on both offense and on defense, and every contender has major flaws. So the question becomes, where do we go from here?

The easiest answer is that I have no idea. In a year with this many unbalanced teams, the final results will likely come down to matchups. New England’s offense looks dangerous with a rejuvenated Tom Brady under center, but Seattle showed just how helpless they can be with no pass rush against a quality quarterback. Denver’s defense is nearly as good as it was a year ago, but against top defensive foes their inexperienced passer could sink them. Even Dallas showed signs of struggling against a mediocre Baltimore team that just so happens to have a powerful run defense that knocked their offense off sync.

Playoff seeding will be crucial to watch going forward. In a lot of ways it will be about luck, who draws the most favorable path going forward. Home field advantage matters as well, a small advantage that can’t be underestimated when margins are this thin.

There is another possibility as well, and it is one that might be unfolding already. The successes and failures of teams are not constant throughout the season, and it’s very possible for a team to pull itself together as the year goes along. The clear candidate right now is Seattle, the lone team that falls in the top ten in both offense and defense. Just three weeks ago they were a below average offense, but the improving health of Russell Wilson has brought their offense to a level nearly on par with their defense.

If I had to name the best, most complete team in the league, right now I would go with Seattle. But this season has been particularly fickle, and this could easily change by the time playoff season rolls around. Seattle’s offense could fall off again, or they could hit a matchup that can exploit their trash heap of an offensive line (the Vikings team that nearly knocked them out of the playoffs a year ago should be particularly terrifying).

Or someone else could step forward. Atlanta’s and Pittsburgh’s young talent could mature into league average defenses. Paxton Lynch could bring a spark to Denver’s offense. Joe Flacco could travel back in time to 2012 when he didn’t suck. And I will never, ever count out Bill Belichick scrapping together a quality defense.

This season feels completely wide open, and the numbers back it up. Right now almost every team in the league has reason to believe they can grab a playoff spot, and most have the potential to go farther than that. There is no big bad sitting at the top of the league, and that means that spot is open for anyone to claim.

The Rebirth of the Running Back

Over the past several years the most common refrain in football analysis is that the NFL has become a passing league. The statistics have been quoted to the end of the world, and I know I’ve certainly written about it more than anyone would care to read. It’s not a secret, and it’s not up for debate. The NFL is about throwing the football.

With this shift came another common topic of conversation. The running game was slowly fading from the NFL, and it seemed that the running back position was as well. The days of the feature back had reached their end, with more and more teams relying on a committee of low cost, interchangeable options in the backfield. No running back was drafted in the first round in 2013 or 2014, and after the failure of 2012 third overall pick Trent Richardson there were actually people questioning if we would ever see a running back go in the first round again.

This speculation was absurd from the beginning, and over the past two years we’ve seen things fall back into a more normal rhythm, with a running back selected in the top ten in each draft. But we are still far from where we used to be, and after a season that saw only seven running backs eclipse a thousand yards on the ground, it seemed a bit much to proclaim that the position was back.

And yet so far 2016 has seen a surprising trend in the league. The position that was presumed dead just a few short years ago has suddenly flourished, bolstered by a wave of fresh talent that has shown just how valuable a running back can be even in this new era.

The easiest way to see the impact of the young players is to just list their names. Rookie Ezekiel Elliott leads the league with 1005 rushing yards through nine games. Second year players Melvin Gordon, Jay Ajayi, Tevin Coleman, and David Johnson have exploded onto the scene. And while the 2014 draft class doesn’t quite touch these heights, the group of Devonta Freeman, Isaiah Crowell, and Jeremy Hill is nothing to turn your nose up at.

The names are impressive, and the numbers back them up. The 2015 draft class is producing the most total yards of any group of running backs. Second is the 2014 class, then the 2016 class, then 2013. It’s even more jarring when you see it on a chart.

This isn’t a particularly stunning result, considering the normal lifespan of running backs and the leaguewide preference for young players. But the degree of polarization is notable. Even productive veterans like LeSean McCoy and DeMarco Murray aren’t enough to lift their classes to the level of the youngsters.

At this point, it’s easy enough to dismiss many of the critics from the past few years as overly reactionary. Running backs had a couple bad years, and there were a couple seasons without true young talent. But these were more the product of bad draft classes than anything else. The top rushers out of the 2012 draft this year are Lamar Miller, Matt Asiata, and Alfred Morris. 2014 has produced some good options but no stars. And while Le’Veon Bell is the best runner in the league four years after being taken in the second round, it’s easy to understand how the league could have missed out on him, considering he didn’t really emerge until he shed 20 pounds from his college weight.

Compare that to what we’ve seen over the past couple years. Todd Gurley was a premier runner who would have been drafted even higher without injury concerns. Melvin Gordon is an elite speed threat who shattered records in college. And Elliott is quite possibly the most complete running back to come out of college in the past ten years, excelling as a rusher, receiver, and pass blocker.

This is an easy enough explanation, but it doesn’t capture the whole picture. The backs that have entered the league over the past couple seasons are more talented than in the years before, but they are also talented in different ways. This can best be seen in the chart below, which shows each class’s production of receiving yards as a share of their total yards.

 

There is a big spike in 2006 that is almost entirely due to Darren Sproles. Outside of that, the trend is very clear. Not only are younger running backs producing more yards, they are finding an increasing share of these yards as receivers.

As I said before, as I said above, and as I will say again, the NFL is a passing league. Throwing the football is more efficient than trying to move it on the ground, and no amount of running back talent is going to change that. But over the past few years we’ve seen the talent adjusting to fit into the modern schemes.

The ability to catch a football is a prerequisite for modern NFL running backs. Young backs like David Johnson and CJ Prosise are actually converted receivers, and they arrived in the NFL with instinctive hands and route running ability. In the past running backs were consigned to simple routes out of the backfield, swings and curls and occasionally wheels down the sideline. But with players trained to harness their natural quickness as route runners, running backs are capable of attacking defenses in previously unseen ways.

There is no better example of this than Le’Veon Bell. Standing 6-1 and weighing 220 pounds, in a lot of ways Bell looks like a big, stocky wide receiver in the mold of Anquan Boldin or Michael Crabtree. And the similarity is even more jarring when he runs routes. His shiftiness is lethal, and he understands how to explode at just the right moment to catch defenders off balance. He attacks the ball at its highest point, and he makes catches outside the frame of his body. Bell does everything you could ask from a wide receiver, and if he dedicated himself to the position full time he could be a Pro Bowl caliber player.

A player like Bell is the ultimate matchup nightmare for a defense. He is lethal out of the backfield, and he might be even more dangerous when the Steelers line him up split wide or in the slot. The ability to line up their running back in multiple positions gives the Steelers the ability to dictate matchups against the defense and call plays to take advantage of the opposing personnel

Most of the time against a spread formation a defense is able to adjust simply enough by bringing extra defensive backs onto the field. But if one of the receivers can also double as a running back, this isn’t as appealing an option. If a defense puts six defensive backs on the field, Bell can line up in the backfield and slam the ball into an undersized front. If the defense leaves an extra linebacker on the field, they have no chance of keeping up with Bell when he’s split out wide.

The advantages this sort of versatility brings to an offense are almost too many to count. They can go up tempo without the need to make substitutions, switching between a power scheme and a spread attack on a play by play basis. They can throw an extra running back on the field and attack defenses from multiple angles. And they can align their personnel in a way that is guaranteed to lead to matchup problems.

There really isn’t a way for a defense to scheme against a player like Bell. The only real way to stop him is to have someone just as versatile to line up across from him. And this is why we’re seeing a similar trend towards versatile, flexible options on the defensive side. Defenders like Deone Buchanon and Tyrann Mathieu are the rare sort of athletes who can stack up against the run and track elite route runners down the field, and they will only become more valuable as these multidimensional running backs work their way through the league.

There are a lot of talented young running backs in the league, and we will only see more come through next year. Leonard Fournette is one of the best pure runners to enter the league in the past decade, and he could very easily be a third straight top ten selection. But the more interesting prospects may actually be Dalvin Cook and Christian McCaffrey, who blend excellent running ability with elite skills as receivers.

The future of the NFL is in passing the football, but there is still a place for running backs in this new league. Down the road we will start to see the positional distinctions blur across the board. Running backs and wide receivers will share roles, just as linebackers and safeties and cornerbacks will be harder to differentiate. There will always be a role for the players who are truly dominant in one aspect of the game. But going forward, they'll have trouble keeping up with the players who spread themselves across every aspect of the game.

2016 Midseason Review: Part Two

On Tuesday I put out part one of my midseason review, and today I’m back with the second half of the league. These are the teams we’ll be keeping our eyes on as the season progresses, as they fight for the twelve playoff spots and a shot at a Super Bowl championship.

Contenders

The name of this tier says enough. There aren’t any clearcut elite teams in the league this year, but these are the closest we’re going to get. Even if they aren’t dominant right now, they have the ability to pull things together and turn it on when it matters.

New England Patriots (7-1)

The Patriots have the best record in the league, and they are the closest thing to a truly elite team. Their only loss came while starting their third string quarterback, and they’ve looked borderline unstoppable since Tom Brady came back from his suspension. This offense is deeper than it’s been in years, and Brady is playing as well as he has at any point in his career. Right now, they are the clear Super Bowl favorites.

At the same time, there are some reasons to be concerned, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Simply put, they’re not that good. They had trouble slowing down Landry Jones a couple weeks ago, and they nearly let the Dolphins come from behind early in the season. And now that they’ve traded their best player to Cleveland there is even more reason to be concerned. As long as the offense is playing like it is, it probably doesn’t matter. But this sort of imbalance is probably not sustainable.

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3)

Injuries, suspensions, and shaky performances have hurt the Steelers to start the season, but of all the teams they might have the highest ceiling. They have the best wide receiver in the NFL, the best running back in the NFL, and a top five quarterback, and when they all come together this offense can reach insane heights.

The defense is a problem, but it’s better than it has looked so far. Cam Heyward and Ryan Shazier will come back from the injuries that have slowed them down early in the year, and young players like Artie Burns and Bud Dupree could give them a boost. There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding this team, but if things click, they’re going to be tough to stop.

Denver Broncos (6-2)

Trevor Siemian is a capable NFL quarterback. Trevor Siemian. TREVOR SIEMIAN. I don’t understand, and I will never understand, but it’s working, and they aren’t going to go away from it.

Of course the strength of Denver’s team is their defense, and Von Miller is the clear front runner for Defensive Player of the Year. But they do have talent on offense, with an elite pair of receivers and a developing young running back in DeVontae Booker. And I’m done making predictions about what Siemian will do next. He could wash out of the league over the next three weeks, or he could go on to win MVP. Nothing makes sense anymore.

Dallas Cowboys (6-1)

I picked the Cowboys to win the division when Tony Romo was healthy. Then I picked them to finish third when he went down. They’ve already reached the six wins I expected them to get, and they show no signs of slowing down. The combination of Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott behind the best line in the league has given the Cowboys the offensive firepower we all thought they were capable of, and they’ve done this despite missing Dez Bryant for a large chunk of the first half of the season.

The key question around the Cowboys is what they’re going to do at quarterback once Romo is ready to play. Count me firmly in the Romo camp. Prescott has been fantastic, but no rookie quarterback has even played in a Super Bowl, and Prescott has never played more than 13 games in a season. An NFL season is long and brutal, and by the time games 18 or 19 roll around, it’s reasonable to expect that he will have hit a wall.

Seattle Seahawks (4-2-1)

Seattle has been far from impressive this year. Three times they have failed to eclipse 12 points, and even some of their victories have been tighter than they probably should have been. The defense is still playing at an elite level, and they aren’t going to drop off anytime soon. And as long as this defense is shutting down the opposition, they can compete with anyone.

But man, this offense might be a problem. Their offensive line has been bad for years, but it’s never been this bad. And without Marshawn Lynch to make tacklers look like children, the running game is not a force capable of carrying the offense. The injuries to Russell Wilson certainly haven’t helped, but that doesn’t change the fact that there are very few players capable of breaking games open on this side of the ball. As wide open as this season is it might not matter in the end, but things are going to be more difficult for Seattle than they’ve been in the past.

Green Bay Packers (4-3)

The Packers are lucky they’re playing in a year where every title contender is flawed, because in any other year the struggles of their offense would be a very concerning sign. As it is, they’re the one team you can point to as having a flaw that is most easily corrected. Because as bad as the offense—and Aaron Rodgers in particular—have played, this is still a unit we have seen perform at an extremely high level.

And even if the Packers can’t get quite back to that level, their defense is as good as it’s been in the past ten years. Injuries have carved holes in their secondary, and their run defense was torn to pieces by Ezekiel Elliott, but they are solid enough that even an above average offense will make the Packers one of the best and most complete teams in the league.

Atlanta Falcons (6-3)

There are a lot of one dimensional teams in the league, and Atlanta might be the most extreme example. Through the first half of the season they have fielded the best and most consistent offense in the league, while also desperately struggling to stop even mediocre foes from moving the ball up and down the field. This is the sort of weakness that would normally be fatal, or at least enough for me to drop them out of the top tier.

The reason I’ve elevated the Falcons while punishing teams like Detroit and Oakland is because I believe they have the capability to improve. Currently they are starting four rookies on the defensive side of the ball, and the unit will only get better as it has time to mesh. Vic Beasley is finally turning it on, and in year two Dan Quinn is finally getting his scheme firmly put in place. It’s far from a guarantee, but the potential is there for this to be at least a league average defense. And with Matt Ryan and Julio Jones playing catch on the other side of the ball, that’s enough to make a run at a championship.

Almost

These teams will be fighting for a postseason spot at the season’s end, and they may even have enough to win a playoff game or two. But unlike the teams above, these six are too flawed to fight their way through three or four games against top competition. This season is as wide open as any I can remember, so it’s not impossible to imagine one of these teams pulling it off. But I’m going to stick with my gut and say that it is highly unlikely.

Minnesota Vikings (5-2)

A couple weeks ago I might have been tempted to put the Vikings in the top group. But I don’t think I would have done it, and I don’t think two straight losses have changed my opinion of the Vikings. They are a very good team with an excellent defense, an abysmal offensive line, and almost no hope of actually winning a Super Bowl.

Reading that description, they come off sounding an awful lot like the Seahawks. So why do I have Seattle in the upper tier while Minnesota is down here? It all comes down to the quarterback. Wilson isn’t playing well, but if he gets healthy, he is the sort of player who can elevate and transcend the talent around him. Even at his best earlier this year, Sam Bradford was not that player. This team can win the division, and perhaps even pull off a game or two in the playoffs. But their offense is fundamentally limited, and that isn’t going to change this season.

Cincinnati Bengals (3-4-1)

The record isn’t promising for the Bengals, but their playoff chances are actually fairly reasonable. After a first half of the season that included games against Pittsburgh, Denver, Dallas, and New England, things get significantly easier down the stretch, and it isn’t difficult to imagine this veteran team pulling together a solid final record. The return of Tyler Eiffert will only help matters, fixing the red zone woes that have plagued them so far this year.

But the question remains, what will happen when they make the playoffs? Do we have any reason to believe that this Bengals team is better than the versions that have lost in the first round each of the past five years? If anything they’ve taken a step backwards, losing the depth that made them so dangerous on offense and the assistant coaches that always got the most out of their talent. The Bengals are still in the playoff picture, but I can’t imagine this will be the year they finally break through to the next level.

Oakland Raiders (6-2)

The Raiders are one of the best stories of the season so far, and that’s prevented us from realizing just how ridiculously lucky this team has gotten. They needed a two point conversion to beat the Saints, overtime to knock off the Buccaneers, and a muffed field goal to win over the Chargers. They’ve won six games, but they’ve only outscored their opponents by 12 points. This team is coasting right now, and their schedule gets more difficult ahead, with two games remaining against the defending Super Bowl champions and contests on the road against their other two division foes.

But this team is young, and anything short of a complete collapse will still be cause for celebration. The MVP talk around Derek Carr is a bit much, but he has silenced any doubts about whether he is a long term answer at quarterback. Michael Crabtree is having a career renaissance, and Amari Cooper is ready to join the elite category of receivers in the league. And if you just ignore that all opposing quarterbacks are playing as well against their defense as Carr is playing for their offense, there is a lot of reason to be hopeful for the Raiders, both for this year and for years to come.

Kansas City Chiefs (5-2)

This isn’t the same Chiefs team we’ve gotten used to seeing over the past few years. The offense has opened up in a way we really haven’t seen before, bolstered by an infusion of talent on the outside. The line has come together after some shaky years, and Alex Smith is playing at his highest level since his time under Jim Harbaugh in San Francisco.

Unfortunately, these steps forward have been met by equal steps back. The injuries to Jamaal Charles and Justin Houston have robbed them of their most dynamic players on both sides of the ball, and the absences have shown. After ranking 4^th in adjusted sack rate last year they’re down to 20^th this year, and after finishing 1^st in rushing DVOA they are now 29^th. This team is different, but that doesn’t mean they’re better, and there will be more stumbles down the stretch than we’ve seen so far.

Philadelphia Eagles (4-3)

Let’s get this out of the way: Carson Wentz has not been good this year. He hasn’t been bad either, but he isn’t doing much to help the team short of protecting the football. In the contest of rookie quarterbacks he has been thoroughly outplayed by his division rival in Dallas, and his performance has been trending down as the young season has progressed.

That doesn’t mean the Eagles are screwed by any means. They still have the best defense in the division, as well as an offensive line that has done a decent job of keeping their young quarterback upright. I’m worried about how effectively they can move the ball either on the ground or through the air, but this is hardly a death sentence in the wide open NFC.

Huh?

These are the teams that don’t fit into any other category. At times they look great. At others they look like total disasters. They aren’t in great shape right now, but they have the chance to be one of those teams that puts together a run and sneaks into the playoffs at the end of the year.

San Diego Chargers (3-5)

The Chargers are one of the most frustrating teams in the league, and I can only imagine how brutal it must be to be a fan of theirs. This is a really, really good football team, and they should be even better. Keenan Allen, their best player and a top five NFL receiver when healthy, is out for the rest of the season, and they are still one of the most productive offenses in the league.

And yet, they are 3-5. They are two and a half games back of third place in their division. And even though their schedule is favorable, it’s hard to imagine them making the playoffs. Ten games might not be enough to snag a wild card spot in the AFC, and even that would require them to lose only once over the remainder of the season. It is probably too high of a hill to climb, which is unfortunate for anyone who wants to watch an exciting, fun, and talented team.

Houston Texans (5-3)

Exciting, fun, and talented are probably the last three words I would use to describe Houston. I desperately wanted to drop this team into one of the lower tiers, but it’s hard to justify that, seeing as they’d be in the playoffs if the season ended today. Houston has gotten lucky, and their record overstates how good they are. But with half of their remaining games coming against their AFC South “competition”, it shouldn’t be hard for them to keep their winning ways going.

So if we’re going to watch the Texans, we should at least try to enjoy them. There certainly isn’t any way to enjoy watching Brock Osweiler, a quarterback so miserable he has somehow managed to neutralize DeAndre Hopkins. The best defensive player in the league would normally be a draw, but JJ Watt is out for the rest of the year. So I guess we’ll have to satisfy ourselves with watching the emergence of Jadeveon Clowney. Once considered a bust, he has quietly been one of the best defensive players in the league this year. He is a quality pass rusher and a dominant force against the run, and he’s only going to get better as he gets more time on the field.

Buffalo Bills (4-4)

Has any team been more bipolar than the Bills? They followed early season defeats against the Ravens and the Jets with a series of blowout victories against the Cardinals, Patriots, Rams, and 49ers, which they have since wrapped up with back to back losses against the Dolphins and the Patriots. At times they wield an unstoppable rushing attack, while at others they struggle to do anything on offense while their defense is torched up and down the field.

If I’m going to bet, my money is still on the worse version of the Bills. They won four impressive games with an unsustainable level of rushing productivity, and in less perfect situations their offense falls to pieces. This team is helpless if they don’t get off to an early lead, and their defense is a problem no matter what the score is. With games upcoming against the Seahawks, Bengals, Raiders, and Steelers, things are going to turn bad in a hurry, and the Bills may be lucky to win three games from this point out.

Detroit Lions (4-4)

Matthew Stafford is playing really well. Other than that, there’s not much going for this team. They have a reasonably talented pair of wide receivers, and a dangerous backfield threat in Theo Riddick. And they do have some talented players on the defensive side, and I could see them pulling things together if Ziggy Ansah and Darius Slay start to perform at the level their capable of.

But even after sixteen games under Jim Bob Cooter, I’m still not convinced that Stafford can sustain this level of play. His mechanics are bound to regress, and defenses will adjust to the conservative underneath passing attack. The offense is playing like a top five unit right now, and it simply isn’t that good. They will come crashing back to earth, and their defense won’t be in position to catch them.