2020 AFC North Preview

The AFC North has three of the most exciting young quarterbacks in the NFL, and also Ben Roethlisberger. They have a pair of elite defenses, and also the teams from Ohio. They have three teams hoping to leap into the playoffs this year, and also a team that will be disappointed with anything short of a Super Bowl title.

Baltimore Ravens

Best Case Scenario

We saw the best case scenario from Baltimore a year ago. They threw out an offense the league had no answer for, as Lamar Jackson ran and threw his way to MVP. The retirement of Marshal Yanda will be a tough blow to absorb, but otherwise they are returning most of the important pieces of this unit. Hopefully they will get more from Marquise Brown after a somewhat productive but also injury-plagued rookie season. If he can provide a consistent threat down the field, this offense can be even better than it was a year ago.

Baltimore lost several pieces from their defensive front prior to 2019, and they reorganized their defense around a lockdown secondary. That secondary lost Earl Thomas, but they still go three deep with quality cornerbacks in Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Peters, and Jimmy Smith. And they bolstered their front again, with veterans Calais Campbell and Pernell McPhee as well as athletic rookie Patrick Queen. The Chiefs are still the favorite in the AFC, but the Ravens are the only team at this point that really deserves to be in the conversation with them.

Worst Case Scenario

There are arguments we can make for why Baltimore could stumble this year. Their offensive system was innovative a year ago, but defensive coordinators have had an entire offseason to figure out how to attack it. The Ravens won’t have quite as much of a schematic advantage this year, so they are going to have to win more on talent alone. And after a quarterback has a breakout MVP campaign, it’s always worth worrying that natural regression will drag on him the following year, as it did for Cam Newton in 2016 and Matt Ryan in 2017 (and even to some extent Patrick Mahomes in 2019).

Those could all play a role, and I could see them piling up to cause the Ravens to slide a little bit. But really the only way I can see them missing the playoffs is if Jackson gets injured, which is the same risk every team runs. Maybe his style makes him more vulnerable to injuries, but so far he hasn’t had any issues, and his agility means he takes very few hits head-on. He will be fine, and the Ravens will be more than fine.

Player to Watch – Orlando Brown, OT

Brown is an interesting story. Even by the standard of NFL offensive linemen he is massive, measuring 6-8 and 345 at the Combine. But the Combine was also partially his undoing, as he absolutely bombed every single athletic test to the point that it looked like he didn’t belong on an NFL field. His tape was of a potential first round pick, but the Ravens were able to get him in the third round.

So far his career has lived up to the hype of his college production. He is a bulldozer in the running game who walls off an entire side of the field to open lanes for Baltimore’s dangerous rushing attack. He is helped in the passing game by having Ronnie Stanley on the other side, which allows Baltimore to shift its protection schemes towards Brown to cover for his limited mobility. He was also helped a lot by the presence of the Hall of Famer Yanda beside him. With his retirement, more pressure will be placed on Brown this year. A weakening of the line is the only thing that could really sink Baltimore’s offense, and even though I don’t think it is going to happen, Brown is currently positioned to play a pivotal role in their offense.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers

Best Case Scenario

The recipe for the Steelers to jump into Super Bowl contention is simple. A year ago they had a dominant defense and nearly managed to claw their way into the playoffs despite bouncing between Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges at quarterback. They didn’t score more than 26 points in a single game all season, and they still ended up winning eight. And now they will be getting Ben Roethlisberger back, which will provide some life for their offense.

The defense feasted on takeaways a year ago, and even if those numbers don’t recur, they are still set up to be an elite unit. TJ Watt blossomed into one of the best players in the league a year ago, and he’s still only 25 years old. They are getting Stephon Tuitt back from injury to bolster their defensive line, and Devin Bush and Minkah Fitzpatrick should be only more dynamic in their second seasons in the system. Even if they slip somewhat, bounceback years from Roethlisberger, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and James Conner should have them on their way to a playoff spot.

Worst Case Scenario

Do we have any idea what we’re going to get from Roethlisberger? He’s 38 years old, he’s taken an incredible beating over the course of his career, and he’s less than a year removed from destroying his throwing arm. We’ve gotten used to seeing quarterbacks like Tom Brady and Drew Brees play forever, but both of them have very different styles from Roethlisberger, less dependent on their raw physical ability. Roethlisberger’s last few seasons have been defined by inconsistency, as in games where his team falls behind he has a tendency to take overly aggressive risks. If he no longer has the arm strength to pull off some of his spectacular throws, will he still try to force the ball into untenable situations?

The Steelers have made quite a few good draft picks in recent years that have revitalized their roster, but age is still an issue at several key points. Cam Heyward, Joe Haden, and Maurkice Pouncey are all 31, and they all play positions where Pittsburgh doesn’t have much depth. These players were still playing at a high level just a year ago, so there’s no reason to write them off yet. But a sudden drop-off from key veterans is the only thing I worry about that could cause the Steelers to fall short of their results from a year ago.

Player to Watch – Diontae Johnson, WR

Pittsburgh was forced to part ways with Antonio Brown a year ago, and their receiving corps suffered mightily because of it. After a stellar first couple years in the league, Smith-Schuster struggled to create separation with the full focus of defenses on him. James Washington hasn’t developed into the deep threat they hoped, and they drafted a potential replacement in the second round this year in the big, athletic Chase Claypool, who has reportedly looked good in camp but is still likely a ways away from being real contributor.

The spark of hope is their second-year player Johnson. Drafted in the third round with the pick they got in exchange for Brown, he had an inconsistent rookie season that was mostly ignored as several other receivers had much better debuts. But he showed flashes of ability on a team without a quarterback, and he looks ready to break out with Roethlisberger throwing the ball now. He has electric agility, and he puts that on display with excellent route running skills for a young receiver. He’s obviously no replacement for Brown and never will be, but he has the look of another mid-round find for the Steelers at the receiver position.

 

Cincinnati Bengals

Best Case Scenario

The last time we saw Joe Burrow on a football field, he was capping off the best season any quarterback has ever had at any level while also establishing himself as the best quarterback prospect in almost a decade. Expectations are high in Cincinnati, but he has the ability to match, and the situation he finds himself in isn’t completely hopeless. He has a pretty good top pair of receivers in AJ Green and Tyler Boyd, plus rookie Tee Higgins. He has one of the most underappreciated running backs in the league in Joe Mixon. And he has a talented left tackle in Jonah Williams who is reportedly looking good in practice after missing his entire rookie season.

What’s the upside of all of this? A fun, explosive offense that can win a handful of games and set the Bengals up with something to build on in 2021. Because the defensive side of the ball is still ugly, and even Burrow is likely to have some rough patches as he transitions to a new offense and a new level of competition. The AFC is still shaky in the middle, so the playoffs are within reach. But I still think they’re a ways away from being able to compete for the division.

Worst Case Scenario

The entire future of this franchise is now pinned on Burrow. His final year in college was incredible, but it was also very different from his performance before. There are plenty of possible explanations—a new offensive scheme, better talent around him, growth as a player—but we won’t really know until we see him on the field. If he comes out and struggles through the season, suddenly his performance in 2019 will be the clear outlier and will raise questions about the long-term future of the team.

Plenty went wrong for the Bengals last year that resulted in them getting the first overall selection, and they did the right thing by not casting Zac Taylor aside after one year on the job. But for someone without the normal depth of experience you typically see from a head coach, the way they fell apart down the stretch is certainly worrying. They didn’t do much to improve their defense this offseason, and the moves they made—adding cornerbacks Trae Waynes and Mackensie Alexander—are already looking shaky (Waynes is out for the year and Alexander was just arrested). I doubt they’ll wind up picking at the top of the draft again next year, but this is still a team loaded with questionmarks at some of the most important places in the organization.

Player to Watch – Joe Mixon, RB

I mentioned Mixon above, but his name is worth bringing up again, because he has the potential to emerge as a real superstar this season. He very quietly put together back-to-back 1000 yard seasons on teams that went absolutely nowhere. If the Bengals start to win, the spotlight is going to turn straight onto his performance as what will surely be a key part of their offense.

2017 has already established itself as a great running back draft class—Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, Marlon Mack, Aaron Jones (lol the Jaguars used a top five pick on Leonard Fournette this year)—but Mixon was the most talented of the bunch coming out. He fell to the second round because of an off-the-field incident from his time in college, and it was probably good for him that he ended up in a situation without much attention on him. He’s established himself as a top ten NFL running back, and he’s kept out of trouble away from the game.

There are some health concerns with him right now. He’s having some issues with migraines that have caused missed practices, and it sounds like the communication between him and the team has not been great. The Bengals need to hope this gets sorted out over the next couple weeks. Because right now Mixon is the best player on their team, and they are going to need all the help they can get for their rookie quarterback.

 

Cleveland Browns

Best Case Scenario

2019 was supposed to be the year Cleveland finally broke its losing streak, but that turned out to be a total dud. They’re back now, with a new coach and pretty much the same everything else. They added a pair of offensive tackles this offseason in free agent Jack Conklin and first round pick Jedrick Wills, hopefully shoring up an offensive line that was a mess a year ago. Their young secondary will have another year under its belt, and they’ll be getting Myles Garrett back after a suspension cost him the final six games of last year.

Once again though, it mostly comes back to Baker Mayfield. The flashes we’ve seen from him have been special, but a year ago they were few and far between. His playmaking mindset looked great in 2018 on a team with limited talent and no real chance of competing, but last year he still seemed unwilling to trust his teammates to do their jobs. Rookie coach Kevin Stefanski will have to figure out how to rein him in while not stifling the moments that make him special. If he can pull that off, this team has the potential for the same leap everyone expected a year ago.

Worst Case Scenario

The best moments from Mayfield have been breathtaking, and when you pick certain stretches of games you can make him look great, but on the whole his first two seasons have been pretty bad. He hasn’t shown the ability and the patience to consistently run an NFL offense. His offensive line was poor a season ago, but he didn’t make life any easier for them as he regularly broke from clean pockets. And among ordinary quarterbacks he led the league in interceptions a year ago (when discussing interceptions you can’t lump Jameis Winston in with mere mortals). Some of these were bad luck, but many came due to reckless and unnecessary aggression.

Even outside of Mayfield there are some worrying signs. Odell Beckham’s performance has seemed to slip each year since his rookie season, and they don’t have much depth below their top two receivers. Their offense was boosted a year ago by several long runs from Nick Chubb that aren’t consistent from season-to-season. And while the defense is talented, we haven’t seen the results on the field, and it’s always hard to say when a young defense will come together. This team has the upside to compete for the division, but they have the downside to finish with another top-ten draft selection as well.

Player to Watch – David Njoku, TE

Njoku has the talent to be a desperately needed extra spark on offense, but through three seasons in the league he hasn’t lived up to it yet. Things are rocky for him right now in Cleveland. They signed Austin Hooper in the offseason, and Njoku put in a trade request a couple months ago before withdrawing it. This is probably his last shot to prove himself in Cleveland.

Njoku has struggled with both health and consistency since arriving in Cleveland, but he is still incredibly gifted, and only 24 years old. He’s a little undersized for a tight end, but he makes up for this with shiftiness once he gets the ball in his hands. He’s sort of a rich man’s version of Irv Smith, who Stefanski used effectively in a limited role last year in Minnesota. It’s still unclear exactly what Stefanski’s offense will look like in Cleveland, but if Njoku can figure things out that will be just another tool for the coaching staff to work with.

2020 AFC East Preview

After two decades of rule, the tyranny of the Patriots is at an end. Tom Brady moved to a warmer climate. Multiple big-name players have already announced they are opting out. And the other three teams in the AFC East have young quarterbacks ready to leap forward and claim the division for themselves.

New England Patriots

Best Case Scenario

Or, maybe not. I circled around this several times, wanting to drop New England from the top of this list, and yet I could not find anyone to replace them. I don’t expect the Patriots to be good this year, especially not on the offensive side of the ball. But I’m not sure who in the division I honestly think can pass them, especially not while they still have the greatest coach of all time at their helm.

Even with their losses, New England does have some good pieces in place. Joe Thuney and Shaq Mason form one of the better guard duos in the league, and Isaiah Wynn has the potential to step forward after an injury-filled first couple years for the former first round tackle. Sony Michel struggled a year ago, but he had nearly 1000 yards in limited time as a rookie in 2018. And of course, this team made it as far as they did last year because of their defense. They tailed off some as the year went along, but that merely means they went to “pretty good” from “historically great”. And in this version of the AFC East, “pretty good” is probably enough to win.

Worst Case Scenario

I didn’t even address the quarterback situation in the section above. The absolute dream scenario is that Cam Newton comes in fully healthy and back to the form he showed in the first half of 2018—not quite the MVP he was in 2015, but enough to elevate a mediocre supporting cast. If, however, he is a shell of himself as he was during his limited time in 2019, they will likely be forced to turn to Jarrett Stidham as their starter.

The Patriots reportedly really like Stidham, but I can’t imagine why. He was bland and mediocre in college, and the absolute best case is that he reaches that level in the NFL. N’Keal Harry showed moments of promise as a rookie, but he is still an unproven player being asked to carry an entire receiving corps. And if you can’t pass in the NFL, you can’t win in the NFL. Stidham alone could be enough to sink this team’s playoff chances, no matter what they get from their running game and their defense.

Player to Watch – Jason McCourty, CB

For years he has been mostly known as “the other McCourty”. While his brother Devin was making plays in important games for the Patriots, Jason was toiling away as a very good cornerback unnoticed in the mediocrity of Tennessee. While Devin was moved to safety and given every chance to succeed by an excellent coaching staff, McCourty was stuck on an island while the Titans rotated through four different head coaches during the eight years he spent with them.

Jason arrived with the Patriots too late to get in on their Super Bowl fun, but he landed perfectly in the middle of a secondary that had been built to be the best in the league. Stephon Gilmore’s Defensive Player of the Year campaign took most of the attention last year, but McCourty was nearly as good on the other side as well. He only managed a single interception, but he’s never been a major ballhawk (18 interceptions in 11 seasons). He’s just a cornerback who goes out and does his job sticking to the opposing receiver, even as he enters his age 33 season.

 

Buffalo Bills

Best Case Scenario

Buffalo made the playoffs a year ago on the back of a very good defense and a steady, if unspectacular performance from Josh Allen, but headed into the offseason the clear question was where they would go from here. Three years ago they had almost an identical first round exit with Tyrod Taylor at the helm, and they responded by leaping up in the draft to grab Allen. They understand that they need to find some spark on offense to win, and they went aggressively in that direction this offseason.

The addition of Stefon Diggs is a big home run swing. Diggs never produced like he was capable of in Minnesota, always either hampered by injuries or bizarrely buried under less talented receivers. But on pure talent he is a top ten receiver in the league. Sharp route running, deep ball speed, contested catches, plays in open space—he does pretty much everything you could ask for from a wide receiver. And he’s going to have to do a lot this year. The Bills can’t lean as heavily on their defense as they did a year ago, and they will go as far as Allen and Diggs can take them.

Worst Case Scenario

Allen improved significantly from year one to year two, but that was mostly because he started from such a low baseline. By most statistical measures he was somewhere between the 20^th and the 25^th best quarterback in the league last year. Not the disaster he was as a rookie, but not the signs of a future star either. The future of the Bills depends on where he goes from here. Does his process continue linearly, like Jared Goff’s did in his third season when he led the Rams to the Super Bowl? Or does he crash back down as more pressure is put on him, like Mitchell Trubisky did last year?

As far as the defense goes, I’m not going to belabor the point more than I already have. Defense is a lot harder to sustain year-to-year in the NFL than offense. Buffalo’s defense is strong top-to-bottom, and they should get even more impact from second year defensive tackle Ed Oliver to help balance out any natural regression. But teams built on defense always have a bigger downside than those built on offense. Even if this defense drops to around the middle of the pack, that’s going to demand a lot more of their offense. And we haven’t seen proof yet that they are capable of winning this way.

Player to Watch – Devin Singletary, RB

Singletary is one of the easiest breakout candidates to pick in a while. He was a favorite of mine prior to the 2019 draft, and he flashed plenty as a rookie, finishing with 775 yards on the ground on 5.1 yards per carry while splitting time with Frank Gore. Now the Bills are giving him the chance to carry the load, and he is ready to explode.

Singletary is a pain in the ass to try to tackle. He’s extremely quick in tight spaces, and he plays with a low center of gravity that makes him bounce off tackles that should normally bring someone of his small stature down. He’ll struggle some if the Bills slam him too much into the line, but get him into open space and he can do a lot of damage. He still has some work to do in the passing game, both as a receiver and a blocker, but that’s something he can develop on the field. If Allen can take a step forward, this team is set up with enough young talent to be the favorites in the division as early as this season, and then for years to come.

 

Miami Dolphins

Best Case Scenario

Last year went as well as could have been imagined for the Dolphins. They were bad enough that they were able to get a young quarterback to build around in the draft. But they also put up enough fight down the stretch of the season to feel good heading into 2020. They had a few young players step up, Brian Flores looked like he knew what he was doing in his first year as a head coach, and they were able to add some good talent in free agency to set them up for an immediate jump this year.

The Dolphins can challenge for the postseason, and likely even the division as well. The big question remains how long it will take to get Tua Tagovailoa on the field, but with Ryan Fitzpatrick as the other option it actually isn’t as crucial to the outcome of this season. Either quarterback is capable of putting up big numbers, and if their expensive trio of cornerbacks can live up to expectations, this defense could be feisty enough to keep them in most games.

Worst Case Scenario

Miami is a team of wild extremes when you look at their units. They have two quality quarterback options, and an interesting group of wide receivers. They have the potential for the best cornerback group in the league. And outside of that, they are still a complete mess. I don’t expect much from Austin Jackson in the short term (or the long term, if I’m being honest), and their offensive line is going to be the biggest impediment to success for whoever they put out at quarterback. They don’t really have a running game either (Fitzpatrick was their leading rusher a year ago), and that means that the weight of the entire offense is going to be on their quarterback’s arm.

The Dolphins will be better than they were a year ago, but there is still a path that ends with this team selecting in the top ten yet again. Fitzpatrick is notoriously erratic, and if he gets off to a rough start, they may be forced to throw Tagovailoa to the wolves faster than they would like. This will likely be positive for his long-term development, but it won’t help them win games in 2020. And after a 5-11 season left them with a lot of optimism headed into this year, a repeat of the same record could leave them much less satisfied leading into 2021.

Player to Watch – Preston Williams, WR

Probably the best surprise from last year for the Dolphins was the performance of their receiving corps. DeVante Parker finally broke out after years of flashes and disappointment. Allen Hurns was functional as a free agent acquisition. And the rookie Williams exploded onto the scene with 428 yards over the first eight weeks, before a torn ACL ended his season.

Williams is a big receiver at 6-5 who went undrafted due to poor testing results at his Pro Day and some off-the-field issues. But he was phenomenally productive at Colorado State, and he was productive in a bad situation during his debut season in the NFL. He missed the part of the year where the Dolphins seemed to pull things together, and if he had been around to forge a connection with Fitzpatrick, he could have approached 1000 yards. By all reports he is healthy now, and he’ll have the opportunity to prove that he is another young player the Dolphins can build around.

 

New York Jets

Best Case Scenario

Sam Darnold’s first couple years have been rough, but he’s had pretty bad luck over that stretch (not quite Josh Rosen or Dwayne Haskins bad, but close). The Jets put very little effort into building an offensive line in front of him, and their efforts to construct a receiving corps were all failures. They addressed both problems in the draft, taking Mekhi Becton in the first round and Denzel Mims in the second. Both are young players with a few rough edges but tremendous upside, and if they can contribute right away, life will get a lot easier for their young quarterback.

Darnold hasn’t necessarily been bad the entire time. He’s actually finished both of his seasons strong. He had six touchdowns against only one interception in December his rookie season along with averaging 7.45 yards per attempt. And over the final two months of 2019 he threw 14 touchdowns to only five interceptions, while averaging 7.21 yards per pass. These aren’t great numbers by any means, but they are pretty good given the circumstances he found himself in. The future of the Jets organization rests on him being able to sustain these for a whole year. With a better supporting cast around him (and no mono to worry about), he has a better chance in 2020 than in either of the years before.

Worst Case Scenario

Something happens when you trade away every first round pick you make before he even reaches the end of his rookie contract. You end up with a really, really shitty roster. They got a good return for Jamal Adams, but his departure means that between 2013 and 2017 every first round pick but one was traded away by the team, multiple involving contentious relationships with the front office. That is an astonishing rate of talent departure, and Adams is the only case where they really got good value in exchange.

This defense is a catastrophe. They did a good job getting Bradley McDougald in return from Seattle, but safety is the one position they actually aren’t stripped completely bare, thanks to Marcus Maye. There aren’t even the normal journeymen veteran with starting experience that typically fill out such barren rosters. The only young player they have in a position to contribute is Quinnen Williams, who I loved prior to the 2019 draft but who failed to show much of anything his rookie season. Even if he does become a star, I can’t see how this defense finishes outside the bottom ten in the NFL.

Player to Watch – Le’Veon Bell, RB

Bell is hardly a lesser known name, but after a disappointing first season in New York, I think he’s in a position to do much better in 2020. He is coming off the worst season of his career, where he failed to gain even 800 yards on the ground and averaged 3.2 yards per carry. This isn’t surprising to anyone who saw the Jets offensive line a year ago, or to people who have watched Bell. His style relies on patience to wait for holes to open and then explode through them, which only works if he can trust his linemen to sustain their blocks.

After a year off from football it’s fair to wonder if his ability may have eroded some, but when he actually had space to work with a year ago, he looked as dangerous in the open field as he ever was in Pittsburgh. He remains a threat as a receiver out of the backfield, and if they can find a way to keep defenses from keying on him, he’ll be able to do more with the ball after the catch. I don’t really trust Adam Gase to draw up an offense to use Bell properly, but it has to be better than a year ago, if only because of the presence of the behemoth Becton to help clear the way for him.

2020 NFC East Preview

There are two very distinct tiers in the NFC East. At the top you have two teams with proven quarterbacks and proven rosters hoping to make a run to the playoffs, or even farther. At the bottom you have two teams still breaking in young quarterbacks on rosters that likely aren’t going anywhere even if everything goes right. It’s a two-team race at the top, and two other teams just hoping this season doesn’t set them back another five years.

Dallas Cowboys

Best Case Scenario

Dallas stumbled down the stretch a year ago, but I still see them as the favorites to win the NFC East in 2020. They have the best receiving corps in the division. They have the best running back in the division. They may even have the best offensive line in the division, though I’d probably give a slight edge to Philadelphia following the retirement of Travis Frederick. Most importantly, they have the best quarterback in the division. There are fair questions about their defense, but I’ll take offense over defense any day of the week, and right now the Cowboys are poised to have one of the best offenses in the NFL.

It will be interesting to see how they adjust to the changes in the coaching staff. Mike McCarthy had a poor reputation by the time he was ridden out of Green Bay, but in their first year without him the Packers offense wasn’t significantly improved, so maybe he wasn't the problem there. And he’s coming into a team that is keeping offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, a principle reason behind their offensive improvement last year. If they can keep things steady on that side, they just need a small step forward from a defense that has talent in place, and they should be able to finish out this year’s division title and set themselves up for deeper runs in later seasons.

Worst Case Scenario

As good as this offense was a year ago, there were also several games where they fell completely flat and looked like the vapid unit that failed to live up to their talent in prior seasons. Some of this can be explained away by inconsistency from their young offensive coordinator, but it’s still a concern headed into 2020. When they faced good defenses over the second half of 2019—Philadelphia, Buffalo, New England—they failed to reach 20 points, and ended up losing games that should have set them up for a division title.

The biggest change in this roster from a season ago is the loss of Byron Jones. They have handed out a bunch of big money contracts in the recent past, and because of this they couldn’t hold on to arguably the most important player on their defense. While their front seven still has plenty of useful players, their secondary has been cobbled together from cheap free agents and recent mid-round draft picks. These players are going to need to step up, or else the offense is going to have to be ready to score a lot of points week-in and week-out.

Player to Watch – Jourdan Lewis, CB

Lewis is a stand-in for the other young players in their secondary, and I picked him mostly because he has the highest upside of them. A fourth-year player out of Michigan, Lewis already has a lot of experience under his belt. He played the majority of Dallas’s defensive snaps in both 2017 and 2019, and he showed flashes of athleticism and attitude that will be useful facing off against opposing slot receivers and tight ends.

Dallas has plenty of experience in the secondary, just not much of it impressive. Anthony Brown and Chidobe Awuzie have both been regulars in the lineup since they were drafted in 2016 and 2017, but neither has emerged as the sort of player you can really count on. Xavier Woods is more reliable at safety, but they’re going to need him to pick up his game slightly as well. There is no single replacement for Jones, and every player in this secondary is going to have to bear a heavier burden in his absence.

 

Philadelphia Eagles

Best Case Scenario

Even entering his fifth season, Carson Wentz feels like a player who is just so close to putting it together. His statistics have been a rollercoaster throughout the early part of his career, but his level of play has been fairly consistent. He can make some excellent plays, but he also leaves opportunities on the field. A year ago he was hindered by a receiving corps that was battered to pieces, and they should be better this year, even if they don’t get much from raw rookie Jalen Reagor. If Wentz can find a way to pull together more consistency, he is absolutely capable of stealing the crown of best quarterback in the division from Dak Prescott.

Defensively this is mostly the same unit it’s been in the past. Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham are still a terror up front. They could get more this season from Derek Barnett and Josh Sweat. The biggest changes have come in their secondary, where veteran presence Malcolm Jenkins is out and Darius Slay is in. Slay wasn’t great a year ago, but hopefully freed from Detroit he can bounce back to his former self. This defense has been held back by gaping holes in the secondary for years, and this could be the piece that pulls them together. I have Dallas ranked ahead of them in the division, but I think Philadelphia’s upside is higher, and if there’s a Super Bowl contender in this division, the Eagles are it.

Worst Case Scenario

The receiving corps is healthy now, but that doesn’t mean it will last. Alshon Jeffery has spent half his career on the injured list, and DeSean Jackson is 33 years old. Reagor will help with depth, but this team will likely still be leaning heavily on their tight ends and running backs in the passing game. They are good at those positions, but they don’t have the sort of superstars who can carry a passing attack.

Age is an issue on defense as well. Graham is 32, and both Cox and Slay will turn 30 during the season. A precipitous drop in their ability to get after the quarterback is not out of the question, particularly since the younger players I mentioned have yet to live up to their pre-draft expectations. If the Eagles can’t get after the quarterback, not even Slay can save this secondary. I think they are well-rounded enough to avoid a drop into the bottom ten of the league (having four games against the teams below doesn’t hurt either), but being in playoff contention is far from a sure thing.

Player to Watch – Dallas Goedert, TE

Philadelphia’s receivers may not be much to look at, but their tight ends are certainly impressive. Zach Ertz is a clear notch below the best of the league (Kittle, Kelce, and possibly Gronkowski, depending on his current condition), but he’s exactly the sort of matchup problem you want from your tight end. He’s big, he’s functionally mobile, and he is comfortable playing in traffic. He’s the sort of player that demands attention from the defense, and that very few teams have someone capable of dealing with.

Few teams have someone who can matchup with one good receiving tight end. No one has two such players. Which could be a problem, because the Eagles may have another version of Ertz sitting on the bench. Goedert is about the same size as Ertz, and prior to the draft he put up even better testing numbers. It took him a little while to adjust to the NFL after leaving South Dakota State, but he came on strong in his second season in 2019, recording 41 catches for 425 yards over the second half of the year. These two interchangeable tight ends could give Philadelphia a unique passing attack that few NFL defenses are equipped to handle.

 

New York Giants

Best Case Scenario

The Giants still have a tall hill to climb, but they’ve started taking steps, which is what elevates them above last place in this division. They have some good young players on both the offensive and defensive lines that should help stabilize those units. Saquon Barkley is a unique talent, and this could be the year he ascends to the elite tier of running backs in the NFL.

Daniel Jones was up and down as a rookie, but he was better than I expected and has the potential to grow headed into 2020. The decision by Nate Solder to opt out of the season hurts, but with fourth overall selection Andrew Thomas in the fold, this line should be able to keep him upright. And he has an intriguing stable of weapons to distribute the ball to, provided they stay healthier this year than they were in 2019. It won’t be enough to get them into playoff contention this year, but this is a team trending up, and ideally they’ll head into 2021 with even more optimism.

Worst Case Scenario

Jones’s statistics were not terrible a year ago, but his actual performance was worse than the numbers show. He put up big numbers beating up on mediocre teams like Washington, Detroit, and the Jets, with more than half of his touchdowns coming in those three games. When faced by a real defense, he was more or less helpless. He took sacks at a high rate, and he fumbled the ball an insane 18 times, losing 11 of them.

The way this team has gone about building itself has felt backwards over the past couple of years. They had three first round draft picks in 2019, and I hated all of them. The future of Jones is still up in the air, and while Dexter Lawrence could be a good player, his value is limited as a run-stuffing nose tackle, especially when they already had a quality option in Dalvin Tomlinson. And of course there was DeAndre Baker, who was abysmal last year even before an offseason arrest for armed robbery has him facing potential prison time. The future of this team will be built on that draft class, and right now it is not looking promising.

Player to Watch – Darius Slayton, WR

One pleasant surprise from a year ago was the emergence of the young receiver Slayton. As both Golden Tate and Sterling Shepard missed time with injuries, Slayton emerged as a truly dangerous deep threat in this offense. After essentially not playing in September, he finished the year with 740 yards and 8 touchdowns, showing both the speed to get down the field and the ability to make plays on balls in the air.

Slayton certainly has the talent to emerge as a quality starting receiver. He has good size at 6-1, and he dominated at the Combine, running a 4.39 forty and then leaping 40.5 inches in the vertical. He was a game breaker in college where he averaged over 20 yards per reception, and last year he showed signs of rounding out his game in the NFL. He has all the talent in the world, and it wouldn’t shock me if by the end of the year he had established himself as New York’s top receiving option.

 

Washington Football Team

Best Case Scenario

There’s been so much other shit going on with this team that it will actually be a relief once they make it onto the field. At least until we watch them play. This is a roster that is still very much under construction, and even in the best case scenario I struggle seeing them reaching even a .500 record.

That doesn’t mean the season is pointless. What Washington needs right now is forward momentum, and there are a few pieces that could give that to them. Dwayne Haskins struggled in his time as starter a year ago, but he looked better as the season went along, and I still like his long-term upside. He doesn’t have much to help him on this offense, but Terry McLaurin looked like a budding star a year ago. Any life from this offense is going to be an improvement over 2019, and it will set them up with something positive to look forward to in 2020.

Worst Case Scenario

Haskins still has potential, this defensive line is loaded with talent, and there are a few functional veterans dotting this roster. But for the most part, this team has nothing. They have gaping holes at two of the three levels of their defense. They have at most three functional offensive linemen, and only players on their roster with more than 400 career receiving yards are McLaurin, Adrian Peterson, Dontrelle Inman, and Richard Rodgers.

And if Haskins doesn’t take a step forward, this team is in deep, deep trouble. I don’t know how they are going to score points. Even before they were forced to cast aside Derrius Guice, they didn't have much going for them in the running game, behind a line that isn’t built to open consistent holes. And as good as their defensive line is, there’s only so much a pass rush can do when they have Sean Davis and Fabian Moreau starting behind them. This is a team set up for another top-five selection, and even after they get that I’m not sure how bright their future is.

Player to Watch – Matt Ioannidis, DE/DT

Chase Young is a future superstar, and I can’t fault any team for selecting him. But man, if there was one position Washington didn’t need, defensive line was it. They already had three former first round picks on their front, with solid defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Da’Ron Payne as well as veteran edge rusher Ryan Kerrigan. And they even have a late round find in Ioannidis, who has 16 sacks over the past two years as part of a rotational pass rushing role.

I’m not sure I have ever seen a team as unbalanced as this one. They could very easily have the best defensive line in the NFL, and the worst everything else. They almost don’t have enough space to get all their talented pass rushers on the field at once. Hopefully they can still find a role for Ioannidis, because he is one of the most underappreciated players in the league, and on a very team-friendly deal that will keep him in Washington through 2022.

2020 NFC West Preview

The NFC West might be top-to-bottom the most competitive division in the NFL. It has the last two NFC Super Bowl representatives, both bringing back mostly intact rosters. It has a future Hall of Fame quarterback in Russell Wilson, and a potential emerging star in Kyler Murray. Any team could win this division, and I could see any but Seattle finishing last. With the expanded playoff field I think there’s a better chance than not that three of these teams make the postseason, and that emerging as the division champion is going to be one of the fiercest contests down the stretch of the season.

Seattle Seahawks

Best Case Scenario

I’m picking the Seahawks as the favorites here solely because of Wilson. He is so far above every other quarterback in the division, and in a series of tight races his ability to make plays at the end of games could be the deciding factor. With DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett on the outside, he has the perfect pair of wide receivers to complement his aggressive down-the-field style. If the Seahawks unleash him, he is one of the top five contenders for MVP.

The rest of this roster has some questions, but they have some interesting pieces that could elevate their game in the right circumstances. Their defense is loaded with talented athletes who excel in space, from veteran stalwarts Bobby Wagner and KJ Wright to rookie Jordyn Brooks to expensive acquisition Jamal Adams. Pete Carroll is going to have his hands full figuring out how to use them, but if he can put the pieces together this defense has the potential to be a top ten unit in the league. They won’t be the dominating force they were during the early phases of Wilson’s career, but his game has picked up to the point that he doesn’t need them to be. He’s the best quarterback in the NFC, and he has the ability to carry this team to the Super Bowl again.

Worst Case Scenario

Wilson can carry this team, but they bizarrely don’t seem to want to let him. Seattle has been one of the most run-heavy teams in the league for several years now, and this is no accident. Carroll and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer believe that they can win by keeping the ball out of their best player’s hands, and they are not likely to change that philosophy this season.

This team has been horribly managed, and outside of the quarterback position they likely have the weakest roster in the division. Their offensive line is better than it was a couple years ago, but it’s still below average. They have no reliable pass rusher, unless they are going to make that Adams’s fulltime role. They’ve loaded up with running backs and left their other offensive weapon positions extremely thin. Simply put, the only way this team wins the division is if they ride Wilson’s shoulders the entire way. He is more than capable of carrying them, but it would help if the coaching staff wasn’t going out of their way to hold him back.

Player to Watch – Jarran Reed, DT

Seattle showed little interest in resigning Jadeveon Clowney this offseason. He only had three sacks a year ago, but that was just one short of the team lead, and he was one of the only players on this defense with some potential to do more than that. Last year’s first round selection LJ Collier is taking over for him after not collecting a single sack his rookie season. Bruce Irvin is back, but even in a more pass-rush heavy role since leaving Seattle he only managed around seven sacks a year. Adams has been an effective pass-rusher in small doses, but that still comes to 12 sacks in three years.

The only player on this roster who has ever approached double-digit sacks is Reed. Two years ago he put up 10.5 from the defensive tackle position, and they looked at him as their premier pass-rusher going forward. He responded by getting suspended for the first six games, then collecting only two sacks in the remaining ten. That means that through four seasons he has one double-digit sack year, and five total sacks across the other three combined. Right now his 2018 season looks like a fluke, but the Seahawks desperately need him to prove this wasn’t the case. 

 

San Francisco 49ers

Best Case Scenario

The 49ers made it to the Super Bowl a year ago on the back of an innovative scheme and a dominant defensive line. The scheme is still there, and they bring back most of their offensive weapons. Another year under the belt of Deebo Samuel will only make him more dangerous, and give Kyle Shanahan more ideas of creative ways to use him. Toss in first round pick Brandon Aiyuk—a shifty and dangerous route runner who is pretty much the perfect fit for this offense—and the 49ers should have no trouble repeating last year’s performance on that side of the ball.

On the other side they are going to be without DeForest Buckner, which is a pretty significant loss. But they are so deep and talented on the defensive line that they can come as close to absorbing this as anyone can, helped by first round selection Javon Kinlaw. Nick Bosa will be even better in his second season, and they should be able to continue to terrorize teams up front. This roster was built with a long-term window in mind, and that isn’t going anywhere.

Worst Case Scenario

The 49ers did it as effectively as any team I have ever seen, but the style in which they win games is the sort of thing that always leaves me a little wary. This is a team that wants to run the ball, produce an occasional big play using play-action and misdirection, and torment opposing quarterbacks with a lethal pass rush.

This is a perfectly fine strategy, but it only works if you get out to an early lead. The 49ers ran a total of 31 plays last year when trailing by 10 points or more, the fewest by any team in the league (Kansas City had 33, and Baltimore at 84 was the only other team below 100). This makes it easy to keep the ball on the ground and get after the opposing quarterback. But if they have a few more games this year where they fall behind early, the pressure is going to shift onto Jimmy Garoppolo. And we have yet to see any proof that he is capable of carrying that weight on his shoulders.

Player to Watch – Jimmie Ward, S

It’s taken a while for the 2014 first round pick to really emerge, but last year it seemed to happen. His first couple seasons he bounced around between a few positions as kind of a slot cornerback/safety hybrid, and it was only when defensive coordinator Robert Saleh arrived that he really settled into a steady role.

Saleh comes from the Seattle defensive coaching tree, and he runs the same sort of Cover 3 system that they made so successful early last decade (with Richard Sherman in the exact same role). Ward is their poor man’s version of Earl Thomas. He sits in the middle of the field, and he erases throwing windows over the top. He’s not a star by any means, and he has only two interceptions his entire career. But he’s a useful player on a team that doesn’t need much more than bare competence behind their fierce pass rush.

 

Arizona Cardinals

Best Case Scenario

Kyler Murray was effective if inconsistent his rookie year, which is about the best you can hope for from a one-year college starter thrust into a bad situation. Now along with head coach Kliff Kingsbury and a reloaded offense, he is ready to start lighting up scoreboards. The Cardinals used four draft picks on wide receivers in 2019, and then they went out and robbed the Texans for DeAndre Hopkins this offseason. With Hopkins, Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk, Andy Isabella, KeeSean Johnson, and possibly even Hakeem Butler, they can roll out four or five dangerous receivers on a consistent basis with a coach and quarterback who know how to take advantage of the full breadth of the field.

This offense is going to score points. They don’t have much of an offensive line, but Murray is capable of creating big plays under pressure with both his legs and his arm. Kenyan Drake probably isn’t a bellcow back, but he is dangerous enough to bust a few big plays as a runner and as a receiver. Their defense still has a long way to go, and they will likely lose a couple games even while putting up 30+ points on the scoreboard. But they will sure as hell be fun to watch, and if their offense reaches the heights I think it can, they will absolutely be in position to compete for a playoff spot.

Worst Case Scenario

We’ve seen so many quarterbacks explode into MVP caliber players quickly over the past few years, and we forget sometimes that it can take a little while to put it together. Two years ago Murray thought he would be playing baseball at this point, and he’s more raw than multi-year college starters like Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Deshaun Watson. Even with the talent he has on the outside, there are going to be rough patches. He will make mistakes, and they will likely cost the Cardinals games.

And the defense, well the defense could still be a mess. Chandler Jones and Patrick Peterson are excellent players, but both were on the team a year ago when they pretty much couldn’t stop anyone. The only notable addition they made this offseason was first round pick Isaiah Simmons, and I think he’s going to have a rough transition to the NFL as coaches try to figure out just what the best use of him is. This defense is going to put a lot of pressure on their offense, which is going to put a lot of pressure on Murray. And I’m not convinced he’s ready to handle that yet.

Player to Watch – Andy Isabella, WR

Arizona’s receiving corps is deep, and it is also pretty versatile. Hopkins is an overwhelming boundary receiver with a huge catch radius who dominates working the sidelines. Fitzgerald has transitioned into a big-bodied slot receiver in the middle of the field. Kirk is also best in the slot, though he excels through quick cuts rather than size and strength.

What they really don’t have among their three established receivers is speed. That’s where Isabella comes in. He’s a straight-shot home run hitter, with 4.31 speed and a long track record in college of breaking off huge plays. He is tiny by NFL standards, and he doesn’t run a particularly developed route tree. But if the Cardinals can establish him as a legitimate deep threat, his ability to stretch the field will keep defenses honest and open up a lot of windows for Kyler to hit underneath.

 

Los Angeles Rams

Best Case Scenario

Last season was a disappointment, but the Rams still came very close to clawing their way into the playoffs at the end of the year. The shine has faded some from Sean McVay and moved across the division to Shanahan, but he is still an effective play caller with plenty of talent to work with on offense. There are still times that Jared Goff can look like an excellent quarterback when the line holds firm in front of him. If they can find a way to keep him upright, McVay is still one of the best in the league at scheming receivers open down the field.

On defense they have two big names and pretty much nothing else, but those two names are as big as they come. Aaron Donald continues to put together one of the all-time great careers by any player at any position, and at only 29 years old he should still have gas in the tank. There are more questions around Jalen Ramsey, who has been inconsistent the past couple years after exploding onto the scene his first two seasons. But he remains the most talented cornerback in the NFL. If he can pull things together, a dominant pass rusher and a lockdown cornerback are enough to make this defense a force to be reckoned with.

Worst Case Scenario

This is a different team than the one that made the Super Bowl two years ago. The core is mostly intact—Goff and Donald are still around, and they managed to convince Andrew Whitworth to come back for another year—but their offense is going to have to look very different. Todd Gurley and Brandin Cooks are both gone, removing the two best overall athletes from the unit. They’re going to have to rely on a running back by committee approach rather than leaning on a single feature back, and they can’t go nearly as deep at wide receiver.

The Rams are in a rough transition period. They traded away their entire future to go all-in on the past couple seasons, and it didn’t pay off. Now they don’t even have championship memories to lean on as they deal with the consequences of trading every first round pick over a five year stretch. The margins of this roster are incredibly thin, and if their stars can’t carry them—if they get injured or start to show signs of age—this team could bottom out very quickly, and have nothing to show for it still owing a pick to Jacksonville in next year’s draft.

Player to Watch – Tyler Higbee, TE

Higbee has flown under the radar for years, for several reasons. First of all, he fell in the draft due to an injury that kept him out of the Combine and a truly horrific off-the-field incident (he assaulted a Middle Eastern man while shouting about ISIS). The Rams selected him in the fourth round, but for the first few seasons they really didn’t use a tight end. His career high in receiving yards entering last year was 295, before putting together 69 catches for 734 yards, both more than in his prior three seasons combined.

I mentioned that the Rams are going to have to adjust their offense going forward, and Higbee is going to be a big part of that. They can no longer run out three above-average wide receivers on every play, and the extra targets are going to have to go to their tight end. At 6-6 and 255 pounds, Higbee is a massive player who should be able to overwhelm defenders in the middle of the field. He’s the sort of weapon Goff didn’t have when the Rams were at the top of the league a few years ago, and the sort who could be perfect for the next phase of this team.